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First five picks of 2018 NBA draft make All-Rookie first team

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Remember the first five picks of last year’s draft?

1. Suns: Deandre Ayton

2. Kings: Marvin Bagley

3. Hawks (to Mavericks): Luka Doncic

4. Grizzlies: Jaren Jackson Jr.

5. Mavericks (to Hawks): Trae Young

A year later, and those same five players comprise the All-Rookie first team.

Here’s the full voting (first-place votes, second-place votes and voting points in parentheses):

First team

Luka Doncic, DAL (100-0-200)

Trae Young, ATL (100-0-200)

Deandre Ayton, PHO (95-5-195)

Jaren Jackson Jr., MEM (60-39-159)

Marvin Bagley III, SAC (56-44-156)

Second team

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, LAC (40-58-138)

Collin Sexton, CLE (39-54-132)

Landry Shamet, LAC (3-79-85)

Mitchell Robinson, NYK (3-71-77)

Kevin Huerter, ATL (1-43-45)

Also receiving votes: Mikal Bridges, PHO (1-29-31); Kevin Knox, NYK (0-22-22); Josh Okogie, MIN (1-10-12); Jalen Brunson, DAL (0-10-10); Allonzo Trier, NYK (0-10-10); Rodions Kurucs, BRK (0-9-9); Wendell Carter Jr., CHI (0-7-7); Miles Bridges, CHA (1-4-6); Bruce Brown, DET (0-2-2); Harry Giles III, SAC (0-2-2); Mo Bamba, ORL (0-1-1); Aaron Holiday, IND (0-1-1)

This is only the second time the top five picks all made the ensuing All-Rookie first team. The other: 1984-85, when the top five picks were:

1. Rockets: Hakeem Olajuwon

2. Trail Blazers: Sam Bowie

3. Bulls: Michael Jordan

4. Mavericks: Sam Perkins

5. 76ers: Charles Barkley

I don’t think voters erred by favoring bigger-name players this year. I had the same first-team picks.

My only quibble: I would’ve put Mikal Bridges and Jalen Brunson on the second team over Kevin Huerter and Collin Sexton. Sexton made incredible strides during the season, but focusing on that obscures his awful start in what I think should be a full-season assessment. His box plus-minus (-5.2) is the worst ever for an All-Rookie teamer since Adam Morrison in 2007 (-5.5).

But if Sexton continues on the track he showed within the season, nobody will view him as another bust.

This is an impressive rookie class, led by Doncic. This will be the first of many honors for several of these players.

Rumor: Team promised to draft Darius Garland

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Of course, the Pelicans will draft Zion Williamson with the No. 1 pick.

The Grizzlies will reportedly take Ja Morant No. 2.

Could Vanderbilt point guard Darius Garland also already be slotted for a certain pick?

Shams Charania of The Athletic:

Do these teams have more specific intel? Because my first hunch when a player who missed most of the prior season with a knee injury leaves the combine isn’t that he got promised. It’s that he wants to hide the extent of his injury.

But if Garland received a promise, who made it? Let’s go through the next set of picks:

3. Knicks

This seems too high. R.J. Barrett is the consensus third-best prospect in the draft. It’s tough to see New York promising Garland, especially with Dennis Smith Jr. already there.

4. Lakers

The Lakers will generate a lot of speculation, because Garland shares an agent – Rich Paul – with LeBron James. The Klutch connection getting Garland to Los Angeles is certainly juicy. Garland even might be the right pick here. He could be the fourth-best prospect in this draft. For a point guard, he’d fit fine with Lonzo Ball and LeBron James. But this seems too high to promise him already.

5. Cavaliers

They have Collin Sexton, and while Sexton – despite his incredible in-season improvement last season – shouldn’t preclude Cleveland drafting another point guard, he probably does. At minimum, he makes it less likely the Cavs zero in on another point guard this early in the pre-draft process.

6. Suns

The Suns badly needs a point guard. But they apparently didn’t promise him. John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7:

7. Bulls

This is my guess. They need a point guard after Kris Dunn hasn’t seized the starting-point-guard job as hoped. There’s also circumstantial evidence they use promises as a draft tool. A team reportedly promised to draft Chandler Hutchinson in the first round last year, and speculation centered on Chicago. The Bulls took Hutchinson No. 22.

8. Hawks

With Trae Young in Atlanta, nope.

9. Wizards

John Wall will probably miss next season, and Tomas Satoransky will be a restricted free agent this summer. But Wall still has three super-max-salaried years beyond this season, and Washington should try to re-sign Satoransky. Though the Wizards need another point guard for next season, a rookie probably isn’t the answer, and a highly drafted one brings long-term complications. If Garland fell this far, he could be good value, anyway. But for that same reason, I’m doubtful he’d leave the combine to help ensure he got drafted No. 9.

That concern is only heightened further down the board.

2019 NBA draft lottery featured historically massive shakeup

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The Knicks winning the lottery was treated as an inevitability.

New York had the lottery’s No. 1 seed. No team had better odds than the Knicks. New York fans salivated over Zion Williamson. The Knicks sent Patrick Ewing, their last No. 1 pick and player they got by winning the initial lottery, to represent them on stage. Nearly every mock draft until last night slotted the Knicks No. 1. Reports emerged about what New York would do with the No. 1 pick (try to trade it for Anthony Davis).

Some of this was overstated. The Knicks, Cavaliers and Suns had an equal chance at the top pick. New York’s higher lottery seed would be relevant only if not getting drawn into the top four. Yet, Cleveland and Phoenix often got left from the discussion.

Some of this was innocent. There’s no other prospect in this draft whose hype nears Williamson’s, and other fan bases got preemptively excited about the idea of adding him. Using lottery seeds to order a mock draft before the lottery is just practical. The Knicks should be planning for every eventuality.

But it all created a feedback loop: Talk about the No. 1 pick, talk about the Knicks. Talk about the Knicks, talk about the No. 1 pick. And on and on, the noise amplified by the world’s biggest media market.

Lost in the hoopla: 86%.

Those were the quite-high odds New York wouldn’t get the No. 1 pick.

Of course, New York didn’t get the top pick – an expected outcome amid one of the most chaotic (and most important) lotteries of all-time.

The NBA reformed the lottery this year – flattening the odds and drawing the top four, rather than top three, picks. That didn’t ensure a wild outcome, but it increased the potential. And we got pandemonium.

The Pelicans (No. 7 seed) drew the No. 1 pick. The Grizzlies (No. 6 seed) landed the No. 2 pick. The Lakers (No. 11 seed) jumped even further, to the No. 4 pick.

Those leaps are among the biggest in lottery history.

No lottery had ever included even two teams moving five slots between their lottery seed and draft pick. The 2019 lottery had three teams move six slots.

Here are the biggest movements between lottery seed and draft pick of all-time:

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With the mediocre Pelicans, Grizzlies and Lakers moving up, some awful teams had to get displaced.

And there were some truly awful teams this year.

New York (17-65), Cleveland (19-63) and Phoenix (19-63) stunk then leaned into tanking. Though lottery reform gave the three worst teams equal lottery odds, the fourth-worst Bulls (22-60) didn’t allow much cushion to win meaningless games. Every additional ping-pong-ball combination improved the odds of getting Williamson. Plus, standings within the bottom three still determined draft order if not selected in the lottery.

Before this year, the average draft position for a sub-20-win team in the lottery era was slightly better than No. 3. The Knicks, Cavaliers and Suns will pick Nos. 3, 5, 6.

Phoenix’s No. 6 pick is the worst in the lottery era for a team that won fewer than 20 games. Cleveland’s No. 5 pick is tied for second-worst. And in this weak-looking draft, it’s not as if New York should rejoice about getting No. 3.

Here’s every team to win fewer than 20 games in the lottery era (or the equivalent in a lockout-shortened season), sorted by ensuing draft pick:

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All told, 11 of the 14 teams in last night’s lottery got a pick that didn’t match their seed.

The Pelicans (7 to 1), Grizzlies (8 to 2) and Lakers (11 to 4) moved up.

The Knicks (1 to 3), Cavaliers (2 to 5), Suns (3 to 6), Bulls (4 to 7), Hawks (5 to 8), Wizards (6 to 9), Hawks via Mavericks (9 to 10) and Timberwolves (10 to 11) moved down.

Only the Hornets (12), Heat (13) and Celtics via Kings (14) remained in place.

Originally, the lottery determined where every non-playoff team picked and gave each team equal odds of each pick. That system sometimes produced less movement than last night’s lottery.

Yesterday, the 14 lottery teams averaged moving 2.7 slots between their lottery seed and draft pick – the third-biggest shakeup ever.

Here’s every lottery, sorted by average movement between lottery seed and draft pick for each lottery team:

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In 1993, the Magic – despite holding the lowest odds – jumped to the No. 1 pick. That produced plenty of backlash, especially considering Orlando also won the previous lottery.

In 1986, one of two years with the initial lottery system, the seven lottery teams, picked, in order of seed: 5, 4, 7, 3, 2, 1, 6. And the Cavaliers got a bonus pick to be slotted after Dallas (which owned Cleveland’s own pick) as compensation for Ted Stepien’s numerous missteps on condition of him selling the team. It was chaos.

Both situations prompted change. The NBA instituted the Stepien rule, limiting teams’ ability to trade future draft picks. The league didn’t want a team to be so hopeless, it’d need dispensation. The NBA also changed lottery rules for 1994, improving odds for the worst teams and therefore trimming odds for teams – like the Magic the year prior – that barely missed the playoffs.

Eventually, that led to an outbreak of tanking. Nobody pushed the limits further than former 76ers general manger Sam Hinkie and his Process. He, more than anyone, prompted this lottery reform.

Last night’s lottery won’t change everything.

But it worked exactly as intended.

Pelicans win NBA Draft Lottery throwing twist into Anthony Davis sweepstakes

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Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson together in New Orleans?

That’s not likely to happen — Davis’ camp quickly sent out word their trade demand stood — but for a Pelicans’ fan base that felt betrayed and punched in the gut, this result makes the inevitable Davis trade easier to swallow.

The New Orleans Pelicans won the NBA Draft Lottery and will draft Zion Williamson No. 1 (that’s not official yet, but come on).

How did Pelicans’ coach Alvin Gentry and president David Griffin feel about it?

This result throws a wrench in the plans of teams that wanted to use the pick to jump into the Davis sweepstakes — we’re looking at you, New York Knicks — but gave other teams, such as the Lakers, another asset that could be part of a trade for Davis or another star player.

The Pelicans had a six percent chance of landing the top pick but leapfrogged up to the top spot, where they will undoubtedly take the Duke star. The NBA flattened out the lottery odds in hopes of reducing tanking by teams — the team with the worst record in the league went from having a 25 percent chance at the top spot to just 14 percent — and it worked, there was a lot of lottery movement.

Memphis and the L.A. Lakers all jumped also jumped up into the top four, joining the New York Knicks. That pushed Cleveland, Phoenix, and Chicago down the ladder.

Here is the NBA Draft order.

1. New Orleans
2. Memphis
3. New York
4. L.A. Lakers
5. Cleveland
6. Phoenix
7. Chicago
8. Atlanta
9. Washington
10. Atlanta (via Dallas)
11. Minnesota
12. Charlotte
13. Miami
14. Boston (via Sacramento)

Some other quick thoughts out of the lottery.

• Memphis will likely take consensus No. 2 pick Ja Morant with their selection, which makes it even more likely they trade Mike Conley this summer.

• The Celtics will take this result because Memphis still owes a pick to Boston. Said pick is top-6 protected in 2020. If it doesn’t convey to Boston in 2020, it becomes unprotected in 2021. That is more valuable in a trade package for someone such as Davis.

• The Lakers had a 78 percent chance of selecting 11th, by jumping up to No. 4 they have a more valuable trade asset — if they can get back in the Davis sweepstakes, or can target someone else — or at the very least a better young player to go with their young core.

Kyle Kuzma, the Lakers’ representative at the Draft Lottery, on the team jumping seven spots: “Must have been my purple jacket.” I thought it was the Hand of the King pin he wore on his lapel for the event.

• The Knicks had hoped to land the top spot to use that pick — read: Zion — to tempt the Pelicans in a potential Davis trade. Now it’s more difficult to construct a Knicks trade that would tempt the Pelicans, New York has other young players and future picks, but the Pels don’t want to totally bottom out. Never say never, but the odds got longer for New York.

• Atlanta has two picks at 8 and 11, but don’t expect them to package the picks to move up in the draft. First, that just doesn’t happen as often in the NBA as it does in the NFL or other sports. Second, there aren’t a lot of players worth moving up for in what is seen as a down draft after No. 1, and teams with the top picks will not give them up for later picks.

2019 NBA draft lottery odds visualized

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Every NBA draft lottery is important.

Tonight’s – with Zion Williamson as the prize, multiple protected picks in play and the first drawing under the revamped odds – is especially important.

Here are the odds of each pick for every team involved:

New York Knicks

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Cleveland Cavaliers

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Phoenix Suns

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Chicago Bulls

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Atlanta Hawks

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Washington Wizards

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New Orleans Pelicans

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Memphis Grizzlies

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Minnesota Timberwolves

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Los Angeles Lakers

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Charlotte Hornets

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Miami Heat

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Boston Celtics

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Dallas Mavericks

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Philadelphia 76ers

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Picks a team cannot get are not displayed. If a team has a chance, but a less than 0.5% chance, of a pick, it’s rounded to 0%.

The Mavericks keep their pick only if it lands in the top four. Otherwise, it goes to the Hawks.

The Grizzlies keep their pick only if it lands in the top eight. Otherwise, it goes to the Celtics.

The Kings’ pick will get to the Celtics, unless it lands No. 1. In that case, the 76ers get it.