Betting

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Las Vegas NBA win totals for next season are out. Here are three bets worth your money.

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Las Vegas bookmakers are good at this: The win totals — the under/overs on how many wins a team will get next season — get you thinking “I could see that.”

Now that the dust has settled on the NBA summer (for the most part) Ceasers Palace Sportsbook put out its win totals for next season. Here they are, in order of highest to lowest:

Milwaukee Bucks 57
LA Clippers 55½
Philadelphia 76ers 54½
Utah Jazz 52½
Houston Rockets 52
Denver Nuggets 52
Los Angeles Lakers 51½
Indiana Pacers 48½
Boston Celtics 49½
Portland Trail Blazers 47½
Golden State Warriors 47
Brooklyn Nets 47
Toronto Raptors 45
San Antonio Spurs 43½
Miami Heat 43½
Dallas Mavericks 41
Orlando Magic 40½
New Orleans Pelicans 39
Detroit Pistons 37½
Sacramento Kings 37
Atlanta Hawks 36
Minnesota Timberwolves 35
Chicago Bulls 30½
Washington Wizards 28½
Oklahoma City Thunder 28
New York Knicks 27
Phoenix Suns 27
Memphis Grizzlies 25½
Cleveland Cavaliers 24
Charlotte Hornets 24

The Bucks and Clippers deserve the top spots, on paper they are the best teams heading into the season. The depth of the West, where 12 teams at least have legit playoff dreams, makes these numbers harder. Both Brooklyn and Golden State are at 47 wins, the Warriors will be the better team this season but in the West those wins will be harder to come by.

Here are what I see as the three best bets on the board:

1) Toronto Raptors over 45. Toronto is going to take a step back without Kawhi Leonard, but that number is way, way too low. Toronto went 17-5 without Leonard last season, and 10 of those games were the second night of back-to-backs. They were 4-5 against playoff teams and that includes wins over Golden State and Indiana without their Finals MVP. This is still a good team in a weaker East they are still going to be pushing 50 wins, especially with Pascal Siakam being a year older and OG Anunoby returning to the lineup. The only concern here is a mid-season sell-off of Kyle Lowry and others, but as it stands this is easy money.

2) Dallas Mavericks under 41. There are just too many questions here: How does Kristaps Porzingis look after missing a season with a torn ACL (and did you believe in him in the first place)? What kind of shape does Luka Doncic come back in and how much of a step forward does his game take? Will guys like Delon Wright and Seth Curry knock down enough shots to keep defenses honest? I like the way the Mavericks are building, I think there is real potential here, but in a deep West, I just don’t believe this year is their year to make a leap forward.

3) Detroit Pistons over 37.5. They won 41 games last season, they made moves this season that make them marginally better, and the top of the East got weaker. The Pistons are a slightly better than .500 team, not one you want to bet on to get past the first round, but 38 games? Blake Griffin gets them there.

 

Kevin Durant out for Warriors-Magic (rest)

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The Warriors have a superstar small forward in Kevin Durant and an elite backup in Andre Iguodala.

But Golden State will have neither in Orlando tonight.

Drew Shiller of NBC Sports Bay Area:

Kevin Durant (rest) and Andre Iguodala (illness) will not play at the Magic, the team announced.

The Warriors (43-18) are battling the Nuggets (42-18) for the top seed in the Western Conference and are also close to the Raptors (45-17) in the standings. Home-court advantage in a playoff series against those teams could be could be valuable.

But having its top players healthy and fresh is more important to Golden State.

And it’s not as if the Warriors are forfeiting. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and DeMarcus Cousins still make Golden State favored over the mediocre Magic.

It’ll just be more difficult for the Warriors with even thinner wing depth. They’ll lean more on Alfonzo McKinnie. Shaun Livingston could also play more, joining Curry and Thompson in three-guard lineups.

Warriors vs. Bucks or Raptors betting favorite to be NBA Finals matchup

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Who will we see in the NBA Finals come June?

The West looks cut and dried — if the Warriors are healthy, it’s hard to imagine any other team in that conference giving them too much trouble.

The East? That’s wide open. A good case can be made for Boston, Toronto, Philadelphia, or Milwaukee finding their way in. (For a more detailed breakdown, listen to the latest PBT Podcast where Keith Smith of Yahoo Sports and myself break down the East in more detail.)

The bookmakers over at BetOnline put together these odds on potential Finals matchups, and after the first four options the odds get pretty long.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Golden State Warriors 9/2
Toronto Raptors vs Golden State Warriors 9/2
Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors 5/1
Philadelphia 76ers vs Golden State Warriors 5/1
Indiana Pacers vs Golden State Warriors 28/1
Brooklyn Nets vs Golden State Warriors 33/1
Boston Celtics vs Houston Rockets 40/1
Milwaukee Bucks vs Houston Rockets 40/1
Philadelphia 76ers vs Houston Rockets 40/1
Toronto Raptors vs Houston Rockets 40/1
Charlotte Hornets vs Golden State Warriors 50/1
Detroit Pistons vs Golden State Warriors 50/1
Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors 50/1
Orlando Magic vs Golden State Warriors 66/1
Washington Wizards vs Golden State Warriors 66/1
Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder 80/1
Milwaukee Bucks vs Oklahoma City Thunder 80/1
Philadelphia 76ers vs Oklahoma City Thunder 80/1
Toronto Raptors vs Oklahoma City Thunder 80/1

A few quick thoughts on that list:

• Interesting that the Sixers and Celtics are just a little behind the Bucks and Raptors in the minds of the bookmakers.

• I don’t know that I’d have Houston in front of Oklahoma City as the second-best option in the West. Not this season. The Thunder have the defense and star power to do playoff damage.

• If you’re thinking about putting money on Washington or Orlando to make the Finals — against anyone — just donate that money to charity instead. That way it will do some good.

More evidence suggests disgraced NBA ref Tim Donaghy fixed games

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Disgraced referee Tim Donaghy and the NBA have always been aligned on one narrative: Donaghy didn’t fix games.

Provide inside information to gamblers? Yes. Bet on his own games? Yes.

But fix games? No.

That’s the story Donaghy had to tell to avoid more jail time and the story the NBA had to sell to preserve its integrity.

It just never held up to scrutiny. Henry Abbott of TrueHoop led the charge of publicly investigating Donaghy’s claims, and professional gambler (later Mavericks employee) Haralabos Voulgaris reviewed the calls. They concluded the system Donaghy admitted to – leveraging his knowledge of other referees’ biases toward against certain players and coaches – would have lost money. The money was made on his own games.

It just fits common sense. Donaghy was unethical enough to gamble on his own games but drew the line at altering calls to win his bets? C’mon.

Now comes perhaps the most definitive account of Donaghy’s misdeeds yet, including details on the gambling operation and statistical analysis of its outcomes.

Scott Eden of ESPN:

Donaghy favored the side that attracted more betting dollars in 23 of those 30 competitive games, or 77 percent of the time. In four games, he called the game neutrally, 50-50. The number of games in which Tim Donaghy favored the team that attracted fewer betting dollars? Three.

In other words, Donaghy’s track record of making calls that favored his bet was 23-3-4.

If one assumes there should be no correlation between wagers and the calls made by a referee, the odds of that disparity* might seem unlikely. And they are. When presented with that data, ESPN statisticians crunched the numbers and revealed: The odds that Tim Donaghy would have randomly made calls that produced that imbalance are 6,155-to-1.

“He can influence a game six points either way — that’s what he told me,” Tommy Martino said as we sat in the break room of his family’s hair salon, where he’s worked since he got out of prison in August 2009 after serving 10 months.

I highly recommend reading Eden’s piece in full. It is excellent.

I’m intrigued by the idea the NBA leaked the FBI’s investigation into Donaghy to undermine a search into whether more referees were corrupt. Donaghy claimed some were.

Donaghy lacks credibility. I don’t trust him on anything, including that.

But I could also see David Stern’s NBA wanting to stifle a deeper dive into the league’s officials before it got off the ground. That’d prevent wider problems just in case this was a rare time Donaghy was being truthful.

Again, Eden’s full article is worth reading.

Post trade deadline NBA title odds: Top four in East now even, Lakers fall

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When it comes to betting on who will win the NBA title, bookmakers wisely have the Warriors on very low odds and a big gap to everyone else.

But how did that change after the trade deadline?

After missing out on Anthony Davis, the odds of a Lakers’ title this season plummeted to 40/1. That it’s that low speaks to the power of LeBron James — and the fact bookmakers hedge against bets from the massive Lakers’ nation.

The arms race at the top of the Eastern Conference has bookmakers trying to figure it out like the rest of us — they now have Boston, Toronto, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia all tied at 10/1 odds. (Meaning if you bet $10 on Boston and it won, you’d win $100).

Of course, it’s still Golden State way, way out in front in the bookmakers’ minds. As it should be. Here are the championship odds for the top 10 teams after the trade deadline, via Westgate. (In parenthesis is where they were on Feb. 4, days before the deadline.)

1. Warriors -250 (-250)
2 (T). Celtics +1000 (+800)
2 (T). Raptors +1000 (+800)
2 (T). Bucks +1000 (+1200)
2 (T). 76ers +1000 (+1600)
6. Rockets +1200 (+1400)
7. Thunder +1600 (+1600)
8. Nuggets +3000 (+4000)
9 (T). Lakers +4000 (+1600)
9 (T). Jazz +4000 (+5000)

If you can pick which team is coming out of the East there’s a little value in a bet — that team will make the NBA Finals, and while massive underdogs it will at least get to take its swings at the Warriors. But this NBA season does feel a little like Secretariat at the Belmont.