Tony Bradley

NBA Power Rankings: Vintage LeBron James has Lakers back on top

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Volatility is the buzzword in this week’s NBA Power Rankings. Just a couple weeks into the season, we see teams making leaps (Miami and Phoenix) and falls (Golden State), with questions all the way around about if teams can sustain, or turn around, these starts.

Lakers small icon 1. Lakers (6-1, Last week No. 6). Winners of six in a row, and while LeBron’s three-straight triple-doubles get the headlines the Lakers are winning with defense. It’s just seven games in, but they have a defensive rating of 97.9, second best in the NBA (behind Utah). A little of that is Jedi defense (otherwise known as luck), teams are shooting just 32.1% from three against them (that number will come up closer to the league average), but the Lakers have had the best half-court defense in the league. LeBron James, with real rim protectors behind him now, is back to being a disruptive defensive force, playing the free safety role he loves.

Sixers small icon 2. 76ers (5-1, LW 1). Philadelphia’s size causes opponents problems in a lot of ways, but one worth watching: offensive rebounds. So far this season, Philadelphia has grabbed the offensive board on 31% of their missed shots, the league’s best, and the team is getting 15.1 second chance points a game. That’s extra points that are hard to overcome against the Sixers stingy defense. Philly went 1-1 without Joel Embiid, who was suspended by the league for two games after he pushed KAT to the breaking point then taunting him on social media.

Clippers small icon 3. Clippers (5-2, LW 2). This ranking is more about the eye test than the numbers — watch the Clippers play and they look like the best team in the NBA. At least when everyone is on the court (their loss to Utah was with Kawhi Leonard resting, and he will be out against the Bucks Wednesday). This also takes into account that their defense is still coming together. And, of course, no PG13 yet. Doc Rivers is not about to put a timeline on Paul George’s return but did say he will do 5-of-5 work this week. Which is another step closer to the Clippers getting that much better.

Bucks small icon 4. Bucks (5-2, LW 3). Last season, the Bucks got to the rim almost at will — 40.6% of their shot attempts came in the restricted area (via Cleaning the Glass, so no garbage time included) — and 79% of their shots were at the rim or in the restricted area. This season 76.9% of their shots come from those two zones, but they are getting to the rim far less, just 32.5% of their shots (bottom 10 in the league). That puts the Bucks at the whim of their threes falling and they are a pretty average team from deep (34.8% shooting from three this season, pretty much the same as last season). The Bucks need to attack again.

Suns small icon 5. Suns (5-2, LW 14). Aron Baynes has been saving Phoenix’s bacon. With Deandre Ayton out for failing a PED test, Baynes has stepped in scoring 15 points a game, grabbing 5.9 rebounds, but most importantly shooting 48.4% from three, opening up the floor for drives and cuts to the rim. The Suns have signature wins against the Clippers and Sixers, but this is a tough homestand they are in the midst of — the Heat, Nets, and Lakers are their next three, with the Celtics looming not long after that. The Suns are for real, but they are going to come back to earth a little, too.

Celtics small icon 6. Celtics (5-1, LW 9). Gordon Hayward looks is looking a lot more like the All-Star version of himself from Utah, including dropping 39 on the Cavaliers. He’s playing 34 minutes a night, scoring 20.3 points, with an amazing True Shooting Percentage (65.6) because he is knocking down half his threes. Also, he may be the best playmaker for others on the Celtics. He’s not all the way back yet, but he’s closer. This week the Celtics started a stretch of 8-of-10 on the road.

Heat small icon 7. Heat (5-2, LW 8). Miami keeps on winning with a combination of impressive defense (fourth best in the NBA, allowing less than a point per possession) and a lot of Jimmy Butler and rookie Kendrick Nunn. Miami is +14 points per 100 possessions when Butler is on the court this season. Dunn, through his first five games, scored 112 points — more than any No. 1 pick scored his his first five games in 26 years. The only active guy a head of him was Kevin Durant back in 2007 (213).

Raptors small icon 8. Raptors (4-2, LW 12). Nick Nurse has gotten the Raptors off to a fast start but he has leaned heavily on his starters to do it — Kyle Lowry leads the league in minutes played per game, and Fred Van Vleet is second. Both are at more than 37 minutes a night. Toronto is not a deep team so Nurse has to find a balance between winning and running his guys into the ground. He needs to get them some rest in games against the (fairly large) soft underbelly of the East.

Jazz small icon 9. Jazz (4-3, LW 5). They have the best defense in the NBA — and Rudy Gobert, asked to do more on that defense this season, has been up to the task — but the offense remains clunky. The biggest issue is Mike Conley is just not comfortable yet, shooting 31.8% overall and 28.2% from three — he is supposed to be the second shot creator next to Donovan Mitchell and he’s not filling that role. The Jazz are convinced it will turn around soon, but with their next two games against the Sixers and the Bucks it will be tough. Tony Bradley is going to get his shot at backup center with Ed Davis out for a month due to a fractured left fibula.

Mavericks small icon 10. Mavericks (4-2, LW 10). Dallas has the best offense in the NBA so far this season, and Luka Doncic — who is racking up triple-doubles at an impressive rate for a guy not even able to legally drink until next February — and Kristaps Porzingis at the heart of the attack. However, the Mavs are -5 points per 100 possessions when they are on the court together, it’s the Dallas reserves that have boosted this team up. It’s early, but Dallas looks like a playoff team, the question is only can the bench (and those two stars) can sustain this level play.

Nuggets small icon 11. Nuggets (5-2, LW 11). Nikola Jokic is playing well this season as the anchor of one of the West’s better teams, but he’s also a little down from last season. His points per game are down, he’s shooting percentages (including from three) are off, and he’s dishing out fewer assists. None of it dramatic, he’s still an elite player, but it makes one wonder if his playing for the Serbian national team this summer at the World Cup took a toll.

Spurs small icon 12. Spurs (4-3, LW 7). So far this season, the Spurs have done what they have always done — take care of business against the lesser teams, not beat themselves, and take their chances against the better teams. Three of the Spurs four wins came against New York, Washington, and Golden State — three teams with dreadful defenses. (The win against Portland was quality.) The schedule starts to toughen up in the next weeks, we’ll see how the Spurs handle that.

13. Timberwolves (4-2, LW 4). Minnesota is jacking up threes this season — 39.2% of their shots are from beyond the arc, way up from 28.4% last season (one of the bottom five in the league; stats via Cleaning the Glass). That sounds like a good idea, but they are hitting just 33.6% of them (bottom 10 in the league) and their offense remains a little below average. Karl-Anthony Towns was suspended for a couple of games for putting Joel Embiid in a headlock (and Towns got off light) and in those games they went 1-1.

Rockets small icon 14. Rockets (4-3, LW 13). James Harden is hitting just 25.3% of his shots from three this season (it was 36.8% last season, for comparison). Eric Gordon is hitting 23.3% of his shots from beyond the arc so far. Those numbers are going to improve, this is just a little slump to start the season, and in spite of that the Rockets still have the sixth best offense in the league. Russell Westbrook also has opened up the offense, the Rockets are playing at the second fastest pace in the league so far this season.

Thunder small icon 15. Thunder (3-4, LW 17). It feels like last season’s tough playoff loss to Portland has carried over to this season — in all four of OKC’s losses they were within two points in the final five minutes but could not close the game out. Sure, they miss Russell Westbrook, but the defense has also stumbled down the stretch. On paper this is better than a below .500 team, but until their identity solidifies it’s hard to trust this team late in games.

Hawks small icon 16. Hawks (3-3, LW 15). No John Collins for 25 games is a blow to this team. (He’s going to appeal the suspension on the grounds he didn’t know what he ingested, it was a tainted supplement with a banned growth hormone… good luck with that.) Collins was averaging 17 points and 8.8 rebounds a game, plus playing 31% of his minutes at center, where the Hawks are thin. Now, a lot more falls on Jabari Parker. Trae Young returned from his sprained ankle and snapped a three-game losing streak when he dropped 29 and 13 on the Spurs in Atlanta.

Nets small icon 17. Nets (3-4, LW 19). Are the Nets the team that outdueled Harden and Westbrook and beat the Rockets last Friday? Or are they the team who on Saturday lost to a Pistons team sitting any player you can probably name on that roster? A lot of confusing things on this roster, such as why Jarrett Allen has not taken another step forward — he’s playing a little worse than last season so far, and with that has lost his starting center spot to DeAndre Jordan. This should be a breakout third season for him but… just a lot of confusing things in Brooklyn.

Pacers small icon 18. Pacers (3-4, LW 27). Last summer the Pacers made an $85 million bet that Malcolm Brogdon — and so far it has paid off. Brogdon is averaging 23.7 points per game, dishing out 9.4 assists per night, he’s playing at an All-Star level and propping up the Indy offense as best he can. Both Domantas Sabonis (calf) and Myles Turner (ankle) have been out, which has forced Goga Bitadze into the starting lineup, and he has held his own.

Blazers small icon 19. Trail Blazers (3-4, LW 16). Injuries have ravaged the Blazer front court — Jusuf Nurkic, Pau Gasol, Zach Collins (out four months following shoulder surgery) and Hassan Whiteside (bone bruise in his left knee) are out, leaving Anthony Tolliver to play some center. Seal Labissiere is getting key minutes. That has sparked early trade rumors around this team, and even when guys get healthy a player like Danilo Gallinari makes a lot of sense for them, adding much-needed shooting. This is a win-now season in Portland, one off to a slow start, and they may need to push their chips into the middle of the table soon.

Hornets small icon 20. Hornets (4-3, LW 20). Charlotte is above .500 in record but they are being outscored by 5.9 points per 100 possessions so far this season — that suggests they should be 2-5, but they’ve been lucky so far. The Hornets are catching teams at the right time: Sacramento is slumping, the Warriors are very banged up, and the Pacers were without their starting front line, but credit the Hornets for taking advantage. Things get tougher with Boston and Philadelphia on the docket this week.

Wizards small icon 21. Wizards (2-4, LW 18). The Wizards have the fourth-best offense in the NBA this season, and while that is a bit skewed by the 158-point OT loss to the Rockets, this is still a team that is surprisingly good on offense. As expected Bradley Beal is playing at an All-Star level, but rookie Rui Hachimura is giving them 14.7 points a night, Isaiah Thomas is in the starting lineup and scoring 14.5 a night, and beyond that they have a balanced lineup of scorers. As good as Washington’s offense is, its defense is a little worse than that. Meaning the Wizards are an entertaining game to watch, and you should bet the over.

Pistons small icon 22. Pistons (3-5, LW 20). Detroit is without their three top point guards — Reggie Jackson (out at least a month with a stress reaction in his lower back), Derrick Rose (right hamstring) and Tim Frazier (shoulder) — which leaves Bruce Brown trying to run the point. Blake Griffin remains out, and while he is closer to a return to the court he has yet to do a 5-on-5 full-contact workout. The fact they beat the Nets despite the injuries is fairly amazing.

Magic small icon 23. Magic (2-6, LW 22). It’s really hard to overstate how bad Orlando’s offense is. They have the worst offensive rating in the league (scoring well below a point per possession), they are shooting 26.8% from three as a team (second worst in the league), they aren’t finishing well at the rim, and they aren’t drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line. But aside that how did you like the play, Mrs. Lincoln? The fifth-ranked defense in the league is keeping them this high in the rankings.

Bulls small icon 24. Bulls (2-6, LW 21). That was a punch-to-the-gut loss to the Lakers Tuesday, one where the Bulls led by as many as 19 at home and 13 heading into the fourth quarter. The game turned with a 16-0 Laker run to start the fourth against an all-bench Bulls lineup where weaknesses were exposed. For example, Coby White has had flashes and put up 16 in the first half of this game, but in this stretch took an ill-advised step-back three, and tried to drive at Dwight Howard and got his shot swatted back. A lot of questions in Chicago about why coach Jim Boylen stuck with this unit so long — he said postgame because he has to develop guys and they need to figure it out. Okay, sure. Let’s just say there are a lot of people around the league who question if Boylen is head coach material.

Cavaliers small icon 25. Cavaliers (2-5, LW 23). Tristan Thompson is having a standout season: career highs in points (16.9) and rebounds (11.6) per game, all while shooting 53.6% from the floor. That means don’t be surprised if another team having trouble in the front court this season calls up looking for a trade. Of course, Kevin Love’s name will come up in rumors, too, but with him in the first year of a four-year, $120 million contract, trading him is much more complicated.

Warriors small icon 26. Warriors (2-5, LW 24). With all the injuries ravaging the Warriors, there have been suggestions they go out and sign a free agent (Carmelo Anthony’s name comes up). Golden State can’t sign any free agent right now — they are hard-capped because of the D’Angelo Russell trade and are about $300,000 away from that line. They don’t have the money to pull up a guy out of the G-League right now, let alone sign a veteran player (even one willing to take the minimum). What you see is what you get from the Warriors for now. Expect them to make moves at the trade deadline, but ones looking more at next season than trying to salvage this one. This one is lost.

Kings small icon 27. Kings (2-5, LW 30). Two wins in a row — a gritty one against the Jazz, then looking like last season’s uptempo team running past the Knicks — provide a little optimism after a dreadful start. There are no stats to back this up, but plenty of people around the league are looking at the starts of Sacramento and Indiana and thinking the travel to India for a preseason game is part of the problem. Getting to Mumbai is a longer flight than the ones to China that many teams already try to avoid due to concerns about fatigue and starting the season slowly.

Pelicans small icon 28. Pelicans (1-6, LW 26). The injuries just keep coming. In addition to tZion Williamson being out until around Christmas (if not later), three starters — Jrue Holiday, Derrick Favors and Brandon Ingram — have had to miss at least part of a game due to being banged up. Ingram continues to look more fluid, he’s being aggressive, and playing well averaging 25.9 points and 7.1 rebounds a game this season. He may be the best free agent on the market next summer (he’s restricted, the Pelicans can match).5

Grizzlies small icon 29. Grizzlies (1-5, LW 28). The Grizzlies have decided to go slow with their star rookie Ja Morant and not burn him out. Moran is playing 28 minutes a night, and has been on the court more than 30 just once in six games. He is starting, and he’s being given the key to the team — he is averaging 19.5 points and 5.5 assists per game, shooting 50 percent from three (on two attempts per game), all with a PER of 20.3. Those are numbers that get you considered for Rookie of the Year. But the Grizzlies are not going to up his minutes, with coach Tyler Jenkins saying he wants to “put some money in the bank moving forward with him” in terms of minutes played.

Knicks small icon 30. Knicks (1-6, LW 25). Unlike the Grizzlies, the Knicks are going old-school and playing their star rookie RJ Barrett all the minutes he can handle. Including playing him extra minutes deep into decided games. “We gotta get off this load management crap… This kid’s 19 years old. Drop it,” Knicks coach David Fizdale said. Barrett is averaging 37.1 minutes a game and is putting up numbers — 18.3 points per game, 6.1 rebounds, shooting 35.7 percent from three.

Utah big man Ed Davis out at least a month with fractured fibula

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It was one of the smart, under-the-radar pickups of last summer, the Jazz signing solid veteran Ed Davis to back up Rudy Gobert at the five.

However, he will not be doing that for the next month due to a fractured fibula (the smaller bone that runs next to the shin bone), something the team announced on Saturday. The injury happened during the third quarter of Utah’s dramatic loss to Sacramento on Friday night. Davis left the game at the time not to return. From the team’s official press release:

This evaluation revealed a fractured left fibula that was sustained on Nov. 1 at Sacramento. Davis will be reevaluated in four weeks.

While Davis had left the game, he was seen limping only slightly in the locker room later — not on crutches — and the injury was not expected to be this severe.

Tony Bradley will get more minutes as the backup five, and expect some small-ball lineups with Jeff Green at center.

Davis had struggled a little to start the season — as have a number of Jazz players — shooting just 40 percent from the floor and playing 12 minutes a night. The Jazz trust that Davis, and veterans such as Mike Conley, will eventually find their groove and turn the Jazz into contenders.

Davis’ help with that plan will be on hold for a month or so.

Notes from second night of Salt Lake Summer League

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SALT LAKE CITY — The Utah Jazz play at the second highest elevation in the NBA, 4,226 feet, or 8/10ths of a mile. The air is a little thin.

For young players working on their conditioning — and especially some young players playing the second night of a back-to-back — it showed on Tuesday. Dylan Windler, the Cavaliers standout from Game 1, looked gassed by the second half. He wasn’t alone. It led to some sloppy basketball at points, even by the sliding scale of Summer League standards.

Here’s my notebook from the second night of games in Salt Lake City.

• With three games in three nights in Utah, the Fourth of July off, then games starting at the Las Vegas Summer League on Friday, teams rested a lot of guys on Tuesday. The Spurs sat Lonnie Walker IV (who scored 20 the night before), and the Grizzlies rested Yuta Watanabe (who also had 20 on opening night). Utah rookie Jarrett Brantley, who looked good in the opener, also got a night off. Combine that with the other guys sitting for injuries, such as Darius Garland (knee), or guys not yet officially traded so they can’t suit up (Kevin Porter Jr. for the Cavs, Brandon Clarke for the Grizzlies) and Tuesday was a little thin on names you know suiting up in Utah.

• It’s gotta be the shoes!

Spurs rookie Keldon Johnson — the Spurs’ No. 29 pick in this draft, a wing out of Kentucky — scored 29 points on 10-of-17 shots, including 3-of-4 from three. But all anyone wanted to talk about was his LeBron kicks.

With Walker and others out for the Spurs, Johnson found the ball in his hands a lot, but it was his defensive effort the Spurs coaching staff — and Johnson himself — liked.

“Defense comes first, then offense will come,” said Johnson, who had questions about his defense going into the draft. “Today I felt I was more assertive and more aggressive, which I felt translated on the offensive end.”

“Expecting that [level of offense] every day is a lot, but I thought he was good,” Spurs Summer League coach Blake Ahearn said. “He made some plays.”

Among those plays was the shot of the night, this half-courter at the buzzer.

The Spurs needed Johnson to step up with all the guys resting, and he did. That’s a good start for the rookie.

• Players who have had even a taste of NBA-level basketball often have a level of competence that means they just take over a Summer League game.

Case in point, Jazz big man Tony Bradley — the No. 28 pick back in 2017, who spent most of last season playing well for Utah in the G-League but has had played in a dozen NBA games — had probably the best night of anyone in Salt Lake Tuesday.

Bradley had 26 points on 9-of-13 shooting, pulled down 16 rebounds, and Cavaliers coach John Beilein credited him for making the Cavaliers miss a lot of shots at the rim.

“After the season, [Jazz coaches] gave me a few things to work on: defensive rebounding, communicating on defense, and being loud…” Bradley said. “I think I’ve done a better job.”

He’s done an impressive job so far.

• Along those same lines, Cleveland’s Naz Mitrou-Long has had a couple of cups of coffee in the NBA — 15 games total, he was on a two-way contract with the Jazz last season — but that little bit of experience and the touch of class he brings was evident in the first two games with the Cavaliers. He had 16 points and 8 assists in the first game on Monday, and 17 points in the second game.

“Experience is definitely the best teacher,” Mitrou-Long said. “I’ve been through this twice now, this is my third time. Especially being in this building, very comfortable here. So it’s something that definitely plays a big role.”

• Spurs Summer League legend Jeff Ledbetter showed out on Tuesday night, scoring 15 points on 5-of-10 shooting from three.

Ledbetter, 31, stands out in Summer League because of his smart play, hustle, shooting — and because he’s on the Spurs Summer League team seemingly every year. He’s not an NBA guy, he has spent the last three seasons with the Spurs G-League team and may do that again, or may go to Europe and bank a little cash. He’s a guy a lot of overseas teams could use.

Whatever happens with him next season, if he’s not back with the Spurs for Summer League next year it will be weird.

• The alley-oop of the day belonged to Utah second-round pick Justin Write-Foreman, who has some hops (and 20 points on the night).

Honorable mention in this category goes to the Spurs Thomas Robinson (yes, that Thomas Robinson).

• Spurs first-round pick Luka Samanic once again showed he has a good feel for the game, once again showed his three-point range (although he hesitated on a couple he should have pulled the trigger on), and displayed some deft passing skills. Also once again showed he’s just got to get stronger — three times over two days he tried to drive and dunk on someone only to get rejected. He got pushed around a few other times on defense. There’s a lot to like, but he’s a project.

Report: Jazz signing Ekpe Udoh to two-year, $6.5 million contract

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The Jazz reached deals with Thabo Sefolosha and Jonas Jerebko that exceed the mid-level exception, meaning Utah will likely waive Boris Diaw – whose $7.5 million salary is fully unguaranteed and becomes fully guaranteed Saturday – to create cap room. That move would leave the Jazz with another $3 million or so to spend.

The other shoe dropped today on that space – with center Ekpe Udoh coming to Utah.

Shams Charania of Yahoo Sports:

Udoh has his ups and downs in five NBA seasons with the Warriors, Bucks and Clippers. He went to Turkey and really shined.

Has Udoh developed into a player who will succeed in the NBA, or did he just find the right competition level for himself overseas? That’s the open question he and Utah are facing.

The NBA’s shifting landscape bodes well for Udoh. At 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan, he is a versatile switching defender. He has good timing on blocking shots inside, and he moves his feet well on the perimeter. Udoh’s underwhelming rebounding still concerns, but the league is less preoccupied with his lack of interior strength.

The 30-year-old Udoh should be more ready to contribute than No. 28 pick Tony Bradley. Whether Udoh cracks the rotation might depend whether Derrick Favors is Utah’s starting power forward or backup center. At minimum, Udoh will be a nice change of pace behind Rudy Gobert, who holds up relatively well on switches for a more-traditional center but still carries that old-school size.

Tiered 2017 NBA draft board

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The 2017 NBA draft has been touted as a great one.

I’m not convinced.

Sure, there are strengths relative to average years: No. 2, middle of the lottery, middle of the second round. But I don’t rate players projected 3-7ish as the inevitable future stars they’re being made out to be, and prospects worth getting truly excited about peter out before the lottery ends.

Still, teams must draft based on who’s available. So, lets classify prospects within my tier system. As explained before:

Draft for need or take the best player available?

It’s the question as old as drafts themselves. Personally, I favor the middle-of-the-road approach – the tier system. I judge prospects on three attributes:

  • Current ability
  • Potential
  • Likelihood of meeting that potential

Obviously, assessing those attributes is not easy. It’s really hard.

That’s why I don’t like taking the best prospect – based on all three criteria – available. It’s just too difficult to split hairs between players with so many variables.

But overly considering fit is problematic for the same reason. Rosters churn, and it’s foolish to pass on a clearly better prospect – in the cases that becomes clear – just because he doesn’t fit the current version of the team.

So how does the tier system work?

Divide players into tiers based on their value regardless of fit. Don’t worry about differentiating prospects with nearly identical values. Find natural cutoffs.

Then, within each tier, rank the players based on fit for the specific drafting team.

Theoretically, a draft could have anywhere between 1 and 60 tiers. A 1-tier draft would mean every prospect – from the top pick to Mr. Irrelevant – holds the same value. A 60-tier draft would mean every prospect is clearly distinguishable based on value. Obviously, neither is likely.

The size of tiers should be organic, and therefore, the number of tiers is also organic. Naturally, tiers tend to be smaller near the top of the draft, where lines between players are sharper.

Here are the 12 tiers necessary to get through the first round. Within each tier, I rank players as if the drafting teams had empty rosters. Obviously, actual NBA teams would need to consider other information when assessing fit of players within a tier.

Tier 1

1. Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington

Fultz is SO smooth, though sometimes a little too smooth. It’s mostly an asset – especially in conjunction with his size (6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan). His moves are dazzling, using fluid ball-handling and an impressive pull-up jumper as weapons to get to his spots. He can also post-up, pass and move off the ball. It’s a lot for defenses to handle. He’s nearly a prototypical modern point guard on offense, though the inconsistency of his shooting form raises questions. As does Fultz’s propensity to get sloppy in his decision-making, forcing some bad shots and committing some head-scratching turnovers. That lax focus is amplified on defense, where his effort level was routinely lacking, save a few impressive highlight chase-down blocks that at least show his defensive potential. Was Fultz victim of a lousy defensive culture at Washington, or was he one of the causes? Fultz’s smooth athleticism might not translate cleanly from offense to defense, even with better effort, because his smooth strides don’t lend themselves to the quick changes of direction necessary to guard on the perimeter.

Tier 2

2. Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA

Ball has elite court vision – and tools to take advantage of it. He excels in transition and getting his team into transition. His size (6-foot-6) and length allow him to generate plenty of steals and blocks, prompting fastbreaks. He pushes the ball well and will direct it to the right spot before the defense recognizes it. His passing is still a weapon in the halfcourt with his ability to see over defenses. His cutting ability, including an ability to finish lobs, is an intriguing off-ball threat against set defenses. But his lackluster ability to run a pick-and-roll or set himself apart some other way with the ball in the halfcourt is disconcerting. So is his defensive effort when he actual has to do something physical, like fight through a screen, and can’t just deflect the ball. And then there’s his funky shot, which he converted efficiently at UCLA. If I trusted those results, he might be No. 1 on my board. As is, he’s still closer to No. 1 than No. 3.

Tier 3

3. Josh Jackson, SF, Kansas

I find myself caught between Jackson’s very vocal supporters and a credible contingent of doubters. I am concerned about his age and jump shot. But his passing speaks to an ability to quickly read the floor, which could serve him very well in other facets of his game. His defensive tools are also impressive, though he – like most rookies – probably isn’t ready to step in and immediately excel on that end.

4. Dennis Smith Jr., PG, North Carolina State

Smith attacks so well as a lead ball-handler, using tremendous burst and a comfort playing through contact. He’s neither a great outside shooter nor passer, but he’s good enough considering the threat of his drive. A high-level offense could run through Smith someday. There are questions about his attitude. Is that just because North Carolina State was bad, especially defensively, and it doesn’t seem he cared enough on that end? There’s only so much a freshman, even a point guard (a natural leadership position) as talented as Smith, can do. And he wouldn’t be the first young player who needed time to lock in defensively, especially considering his heavy offensive burden. If there’s more to the attitude questions, I don’t know.

Tier 5

5. Jonathan Isaac, F, Florida State

Isaac is a high-upside prospect who’s safer than credited (which is not to say safe) – as long as he’s not pigeonholed into traditional star scoring expectations. Despite being a lanky 6-foot-11, Isaac still excelled as a defensive rebounder. That speaks to his basketball intelligence and determination. His length and fluidity give him elite defensive potential. Then there are the tantalizing flashier aspects of his game: finishing alley-oops above the rim and a smooth-looking jumper. Isaac deferred a lot at Florida State, which both protected him from exposing his flaws (especially shaky ball-handling) and prevented him from showing off and developing his strengths. There might be an adjustment period as Isaac acclimates to a bigger role in the NBA, but he’s more likely than not to reward patience.

6. Lauri Markkanen, PF, Arizona

Markkanen is a 7-footer who made 42% of his 3-pointers at Arizona. Yet, even that eye-popping combination sells him short. He can generate 3-pointers so many ways — pick-and-pops, spot-ups, off off-ball screens and even running pick-and-rolls himself. He can shoot over smaller defenders and/or free himself from them. It’s difficult to find players to defend him, even if his inside-the-arc skills leave plenty to be desired. Markkanen is mobile enough to stick decently with smaller players defensively, so don’t expect a massive mismatch on the other end.

7. Malik Monk, G, Kentucky

Monk is an elite individual scorer who works well within a team’s offensive construct. He’s decisive, not bogging down the flow. He’s a threat with or without the ball, always working to get to a spot where he can rise up and shoot. Even at 6-foot-3, he has the athleticism and form to get his shot off cleanly from mid-range and deep. His size prevents him from getting all the way to the rim often enough, but his explosiveness suggests he could leap forward as a driver if he gets stronger. Right now, Monk is a shooting guard in a point guard’s body. If he develops into a point guard – he’s a good passer for an off guard, though he needs much better feel running the pick-and-roll – he’s too low on this board.  Even as an undersized shooting guard, he can still contribute. But moving to point guard would be particularly helpful, because his feeble defense projects to become passable against only point guards.

8. De'Aaron Fox, PG, Kentucky

Is he John Wall or Ish Smith? I see more Smith in his game, but Fox is just 19 with plenty of time to develop. The possibility he becomes Wall and a reasonably high floor warrant a high selection. Fox is fast, and that serves him well on both ends. He’s dangerous in transition, with or – given his ability to finish above the rim – without the ball. He can probe defenses in the halfcourt, snaking through defenders looking for passing lanes. Using his penetration to create more passing lanes would be a good next step for him. Of course, becoming a good outside shooter is the most important step he can take. It’s a huge, career-defining unknown, and I wouldn’t be surprised either way whether he adds that skill. Defensively, Fox uses his speed well to pressure the ball – both his man and on double-teams, with an ability to go back and forth. His frailty limits his defense and his finishing at the rim (though, curiously, not his foul-drawing), as he’s limited to a lot of floaters. I’m not sure how much strength Fox can add, but if he gets stronger without losing speed, he should stick in the league a while. His 3-point shot, though, will determine whether he can become a star.

Tier 5

9. Jayson Tatum, F, Duke

Tatum was often the best athlete on the floor in college. He rarely will be in the NBA. Will his game hold up? He’s a ball-stopper, though his individual scoring skills make the tradeoff worthwhile. He’s a fine shooter, fine passer and maybe will become a fine defender. I’m just not sure he’ll justify how often he disrupts an offense’s flow – or successfully adjust his style.

10. Zach Collins, C, Gonzaga

Collins is a roll of the dice. He spent one season coming off the bench in the West Coast Conference and never played more than 23 minutes in a game. But he’s a roll of the dice I’d be thrilled to make. He showed nice touch near the basket and a solid stroke from mid-range and occasionally beyond the arc. He moved well defensively, blocking shots and still getting into rebounding position. That’s a special combination. He plays more athletically than credited, though the strength concerns are real. He regularly enough got outmuscled by players way more fatigued than him. Collins’ age is a reasonable potential excuse.

Tier 6

11. Frank Ntilikina, PG, Strasbourg

The 6-foot-5 Ntilikina projects to become a player who can defend every perimeter position while playing as a capable point guard offensively. That opens so many doors. Just 18, Ntilikina might need to lean on another playmaker in the backcourt for a while. He’s neither steady nor dangerous enough, especially as a scorer, to run the offense himself at all times. But he has solid off-ball skills, so that should work. Ntilikina doesn’t possess standout athleticism, so a lower ceiling keeps him from climbing higher on my board

12. OG Anunoby, SF, Indiana

Anunoby could be a defensive stud who guards every position. He flies above the rim and at least offers hope on his jumper – when healthy. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in the winter and could miss time in his first NBA season. The latter doesn’t worry me. Anunoby losing athleticism or facing greater risk of re-injury does. Without more medical information, I’m somewhat shooting in the dark.

13. Harry Giles, PF, Duke

Giles looked like a complete prospect in high school, maybe even a future No. 1 pick. But injuries have piled up. Without access to his medical records, I’m mostly guessing here. He could belong much higher or much lower.

Tier 7

14. Luke Kennard, SG, Duke

Kennard is more than just a shooter. He has developed point guard skills, and at 6-foot-5, can see over defenses. He has reportedly tested well athletically in workouts – easing the biggest concern about him. That opens the door for him to defend adequately and maybe even play some point guard, where he’d be more valuable.

15. Donovan Mitchell, SG, Louisville

I believe in Mitchell’s ability to defend point guards. Otherwise, I’m skeptical. He’s 6-foot-3 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, so defending wings is certainly within the realm of possibility. I don’t trust his ability to run an offense as a point guard. I don’t like his scoring game – too few good shots generated – as a shooting guard. But he’s athletic and has enough raw skills and areas for theoretical improvement to take chance on him.

16. Jonah Bolden, PF, FMP Beograd

Bolden is comfortable on the perimeter, where he can shoot off the dribble or spotting up, find teammates with impressive passes or drive to the hoop. Those skills aren’t completely developed yet, but its an impressive array. For a stretch four, Bolden’s athleticism takes him to the next level. Near the basket, he plays above the rim. He has all the tools to move with perimeter players on switches defensively. The big concern: Bolden shies from physicality and struggles when it finds him. Maybe that changes if he gets stronger. A point of confusion: Why was Bolden so unimpressive in his lone season at UCLA before thriving overseas?

Tier 8

17. John Collins, PF, Wake Forest

He’s a tenacious interior scorer and rebounder, always attacking his spots, through contact or otherwise. Those skills just don’t translate defensively. As much as defense is about effort, Collins just looks lost. Pedestrian athleticism and length limit him as a rim-protector. Sticking with stretch fours will require far more defensive discipline than he has shown. I’m not even sure about his role offensively, either. He has nice footwork in the post, but he’s not nearly enough of a passer for someone in that position. His jumper could come along and open things for him.

18. Isaiah Hartenstein, PF, Zalgiris

Hartenstein built a lot of his resume on outhustling less athletic players in Europe, but there are traits that will translate (size, a massive 7-foot-1), should translate (passing) and might translate (shooting). Shooting is the big one. If he develops his outside shot, that would allow him to spend more time on the perimeter and take advantage of his passing ability. While reasonably mobile, he’s too undisciplined defensively to take advantage. Just 19, he can improve considerably. A lack of explosive athleticism is concerning, though.

Tier 9

19. Ike Anigbogu, C, UCLA

Anigbogu, 18 until October, might be the youngest player drafted this year. He’s big (6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, more than 250 pounds without a lot of body fat), and he throws his body around while moving well for his size. He just lacks any ball skills offensively and polish defensively. Sometimes, he’s too aggressive. Other times, he’s too passive. If he gains a better feel and/or becomes more polished, he could be a weapon. Time is on his side.

Tier 10

20. T.J. Leaf, PF, UCLA

Leaf is a pick-and-pop threat who expands into an offensive threat all over the floor. He can shoot from all levels of the floor, and his advanced court vision leads to impressive passes. But his defense poses problems. He’s subpar defending on the perimeter and even worse protecting the rim.

21. Justin Patton, C, Creighton

Patton is an excellent finisher, creating high-efficiency shots at the rim in transition, as roll man and as a cutter. He needs someone to set him up, but I hear NBA teams employ point guards. He has shown glimpses of playmaking out of the post and shooting from distance, suggesting his offensive game can expand. He doesn’t rebound well enough, but he has flashed solid rim protection. If he improves his physique, he could blossom.

Tier 11

22. Tyler Lydon, PF, Syracuse

Lydon’s strengths are 3-point shooting and shot-blocking, a dynamite combination for a modern big man. His rebounding and interior defense are lagging (and his ability to defend on the perimeter is even worse). But there’s a path to playing time for anyone who shoot 3s and block shots like Lydon projects to. If there’s a good reason Lydon has seemingly generated no momentum in the pre-draft process, I don’t know what it is.

23. Monte Morris, PG, Iowa State

Nobody in this range of the draft is a safe bet to have a long NBA career. Morris might come closest, as he could step in as and remain a backup point guard for a while. Let him run an offense, and he’ll make the right pass while committing few turnovers. The question: Without great athleticism, can he create enough situations where the right pass leads to a bucket often enough? I think he’s savvy enough to create seams with craftiness and decent shooting ability, but it’s not a given. Morris at least controls what he can control. He puts effort into defense and rebounding, adding more value with the latter.

24. Jawun Evans, PG, Oklahoma State

Evans is a blur, a 6-foot speedster who can attack the rim with abandon. That pressures the defense, and he’s adept at kicking to teammates (though not finishing at the rim). He can also pull up for jumpers, keeping defenses honest. But he’s small, which brings into question his ability to translate to the pros, especially defensively.

25. D.J. Wilson, PF, Michigan

For better or worse, Wilson plays like  wing. He shoots 3-pointers and dribbles and moves fluidly. He also too often avoids contact from fellow bigs. But the 6-foot-11 Wilson must play power forward, because that gives him his matchup advantages. With a 7-foot-3 wingspan and bounciness, he can protect the rim at times (and finish over it on the other end). He must work on still deterring shots at the rim when also countering a bigger offensive payer inside and rebounding.

26. Terrance Ferguson, SG, Adelaide 36ers

Ferguson projects as an athletic 3-and-D guard, but he’s not nearly as ready as hoped. His shot is unreliable. His defensive awareness lags behind professional standards. But these are issues young players sometimes enter the NBA with and figure out. There’s a path forward here that leads to Ferguson becoming a contributor in the league.

27. Tony Bradley, C, North Carolina

Bradley is huge (6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan), and he offensively rebounded like a beast in college. But why didn’t that nose for the ball on the offensive glass show up in other areas, namely defensively? His athleticism is lacking, raising questions how he’ll translate. His soft touch could serve him well, though.

28. Jarrett Allen, C, Texas

Allen is long (6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5.5 wingspan) and mobile, but he uses those traits to too often play a finesse game – reaching by opponents for rebounds or blocks rather than banging. Shying from contact holds him back. So does how long it takes him to load up to jump (though he gets nice height once he elevates). I’m obviously relatively low on Allen and, with his unrefined offense, see him as a major project. But late in the first round, he’s worth a flier. He could certainly develop.

Tier 12

29. Semi Ojeleye, F, SMU

Ojeleye was a  22-year-old dominating the American Athletic Conference last year. Will that translate to the NBA? His best path is at power forward, where he can face up and either shoot 3-pointers (though not necessarily from NBA range) or drive (though with brute force, not creatively). Even at 6-foot-7, he’s strong enough to hold his own defending and rebounding inside.

30. Bam Adebayo, C, Kentucky

Adebayo is a voracious dunker. He displays impressive motor, explosiveness, physicality on his slams. He just hasn’t seem interested in applying those traits to other areas of his game, like defense and rebounding. If Adebayo applies himself in those less-glamorous areas, he could succeed in the NBA. Powerful dunks alone won’t keep him in the league.

31. Jordan Bell, PF, Oregon

Bell can protect the rim and guard on the perimeter, a special defensive combination for the 6-foot-9 fluid athlete. But he’ll have to play elite defense to stick in the NBA, because his offense is limited to finishing at the rim. Bell does that very efficiently, but it’ll be easier to take away with no other offensive skills as threats.