This was expected after the Bucks waived Spencer Hawes, but now it is all but official.
Jason Terry – who turned 40 on Friday — is returning to the Bucks. Shams Charania of the Vertical at Yahoo Sports broke the story.
Terry played 74 games for the Bucks last season, averaging more than 18 minutes a night, and he can still space the floor as he shot 42 percent from three. At this point in his career, The Jet is limited in other aspects of his game, but he can give the Bucks some veteran depth and points. Milwaukee will start Tony Snell at the two with both Rashad Vaughn and Sterling Brown in the mix next, Terry will fit in that group and contribute.
The Bucks just waived and stretched Spencer Hawes, part of a move by the team to free up a little cap space.
Apparently, to sign Jason Terry, reports Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times.
The Bucks will start Tony Snell at the two and after that it’s Rashad Vaughn and Sterling Brown, Terry could fit in that group and contribute. Terry played in 74 games for the Bucks last season, giving them more than 18 minutes a night, and he shot 42 percent from three. The Jet is limited in other areas of his game, but as a veteran off the bench, he can help.
And at a minimum contract, it makes sense.
The Bucks have too many centers – Thon Maker, Greg Monroe, John Henson and Spencer Hawes – and too high of a payroll.
As Milwaukee looks to duck the luxury tax, a center is likely to get moved. Maybe one center in particular.
Chris Haynes of ESPN:
Big man John Henson could be a prime trade candidate.
There is mutual interest and motivation from both sides on finding the 6-11 center a new home, league sources tell ESPN.
But is there any interest from another team in acquiring Henson, who’s owed $31,732,398 over the next three years?
That’s not an awful price for the 26-year-old Henson in a vacuum. Few teams need centers, though.
Henson is an excellent shot-blocker who’s still learning how to balance that skill with still grabbing defensive rebounds. He isn’t strong and can get pushed around inside, and he’s only OK defending pick-and-rolls. He’s at his best on hook shots offensively, though last year, he took way more jumpers than usual, which drove down his efficiency.
Monroe and Hawes (both surely also trade candidates) will be free agents next year. So, maybe Milwaukee would be glad to have Henson behind Maker a year from now.
But the luxury-tax concerns are more pressing.
The Bucks were so desperate for a wing with Khris Middleton injured, they traded for Tony Snell.
At least that’s how it seemed last fall.
But Snell has a breakout year, shooting 41% on 3-pointers and playing fine defense. With a dearth of 3-and-D wings, his value is immense.
Yet, it seems Milwaukee will keep the pending restricted free agent.
Marc Stein of ESPN:
Zach Lowe of ESPN:
Barring a massive offer sheet, I’d expect Milwaukee to re-sign Tony Snell for something in the $10-12 million range
With 14 players locked in, the Bucks are about $9 million below the projected luxury-tax line. Even with a starting salary at that amount, annual raises could push Snell’s average salary over $10 million on a multi-year deal.
But such narrow margins leave Snell ripe for a qualifying offer Milwaukee might be wary of matching.
The Bucks could clear more room by trading or stretching John Henson, Mirza Teletovic and/or Spencer Hawes. Perhaps, that won’t be necessary if Snell agrees to terms quickly.
Kyle Korver played 894 minutes for the Hawks this season. Ed Davis played 789 minutes for the Trail Blazers. Lucas Nogueira played 1,088 minutes for the Raptors.
All three players factor into any season-long evaluation – including won-loss record and net rating – for those teams. But Korver (trade), Davis (season-ending injury) and Nogueira (fell out of rotation) won’t factor into those teams’ first-round series.
So, to account for rotation changes like that on every playoff team, I’ve found how many points per 100 possessions teams score and allow when five players projected to be in the postseason rotation are on the floor together.
This is hardly a perfect measure. Teams rarely announce their playoff rotations, so we’re left with my predictions of which players will receive regular playing time. The minutes distribution among players in the adjusted rating can vary from what it’ll be during the playoffs. This doesn’t take into account opponent quality. Some teams have larger samples than others.
But I find it useful, another data point among the many necessary to evaluate the upcoming playoffs. It shows how the players we project to see on the court for the next few months have played together, without someone else affecting the chemistry.
Here’s each team’s offensive, defensive and net ratings adjust from the regular season to counting only lineups that include five players projected to be in the play rotation (using nbawowy! to calculate):
3. Toronto Raptors
- Offensive rating: 113.1 to 116.8
- Defensive rating: 108.9 to 106.6
- Net rating: +4.2 to +10.2
8. Chicago Bulls
- Offensive rating: 107.8 to 116.0
- Defensive rating: 107.3 to 109.6
- Net rating: +0.5 to +6.4
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
- Offensive rating: 114.4 to 118.0
- Defensive rating: 111.1 to 112.1
- Net rating: +3.3 to +5.9
4. Washington Wizards
- Offensive rating: 111.7 to 116.5
- Defensive rating: 110.0 to 110.7
- Net rating: +1.7 to +5.8
1. Boston Celtics
- Offensive rating: 112.4 to 114.4
- Defensive rating: 109.8 to 109.2
- Net rating: +2.6 to +5.2
6. Milwaukee Bucks
- Offensive rating: 110.1 to 111.2
- Defensive rating: 110.3 to 107.4
- Net rating: -0.2 to +3.8
7. Indiana Pacers
- Offensive rating: 109.3 to 110.3
- Defensive rating: 109.5 to 108.2
- Net rating: -0.2 to +2.1
5. Atlanta Hawks
- Offensive rating: 106.5 to 108.0
- Defensive rating: 108.2 to 106.3
- Net rating: -1.7 to +1.7
1. Golden State Warriors
- Offensive rating: 116.6 to 121.7
- Defensive rating: 104.9 to 102.9
- Net rating: +11.7 to +18.8
4. Los Angeles Clippers
- Offensive rating: 113.5 to 120.7
- Defensive rating: 108.8 to 107.0
- Net rating: +4.7 to +13.7
6. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Offensive rating: 109.4 to 113.8
- Defensive rating: 108.6 to 104.2
- Net rating: +0.8 to +9.6
3. Houston Rockets
- Offensive rating: 115.5 to 118.5
- Defensive rating: 109.7 to 109.5
- Net rating: +5.8 to +9.0
2. San Antonio Spurs
- Offensive rating: 111.7 to 115.4
- Defensive rating: 104.2 to 106.9
- Net rating: +7.5 to +8.5
5. Utah Jazz
- Offensive rating: 110.7 to 112.5
- Defensive rating: 106.4 to 107.2
- Net rating: +4.3 to +5.3
7. Memphis Grizzlies
- Offensive rating: 108.8 to 114.3
- Defensive rating: 108.1 to 109.3
- Net rating: +0.7 to +5.0
8. Portland Trail Blazers
- Offensive rating: 111.2 to 121.0
- Defensive rating: 111.7 to 116.1
- Net rating: -0.5 to +4.9
- All 16 teams improve with the adjustment, which is logical. When teams tighten their rotations, they’re left with only better players.
- The Clippers (nine points per 100 possessions better) make the biggest jump.
- This model predicts two first-round upsets: Bulls over Celtics and Thunder over Rockets. In fact, Chicago (Wizards or Hawks) and Oklahoma City (Spurs or Grizzlies) also rate ahead of either potential second-round foe.
- The Warriors were better than everyone else in the regular season, and that advantage is only amplified with the adjustment. And I set their playoff rotation 11 deep, more players than any other team. If they need to pare down, they’d get even more dangerous.
- I projected 10 players in the Cavaliers’ rotation. If they tighten that, they too could get better.
- Are the Raptors the top team in the East now? They played very well after the trade deadline with Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker providing toughness – all while Kyle Lowry was out. Now that Lowry is healthy, this could be a complete team, which the adjustment indicates. However, because of the mismatched availability (Lowry in the first of the season, Ibaka and Tucker in the second half), Toronto’s sample size is relatively small.
- Likewise, I’m not convinced the Bulls’ adjusted rating is reliable. It too stems from a relatively small sample, and because all Taj Gibson lineups are removed, time after the trade deadline weighs heavily. So, that includes Nikola Mirotic‘s hot stretch and Rajon Rondo‘s resurgence – which both came with Dwyane Wade out. Now that Wade is back, can Chicago put everything together the way these numbers suggest?
- The Wizards would’ve rated better, just ahead of the Bulls for second in the East, if Ian Mahinmi were healthy.
- I don’t know whether the Bucks will use Michael Beasley, Mirza Teletovic or Spencer Hawes as their backup stretch player. I guessed Beasley, who conveniently produces the middle mark in adjusted net rating among the three.
- The Clippers would have fared a little worse, though still would’ve ranked second in the West, if I included the injured Austin Rivers. That’s not because Rivers is bad, but because excluding any lineups that include him emphasizes L.A.’s powerful starting lineup.
- I gave the Thunder a narrow eight-man rotation that includes neither Doug McDermott nor Alex Abrines. If Oklahoma City needs one of those wings – and it might – its adjusted net rating would suffer.
- Deep teams like the Celtics and Spurs aren’t rewarded here. When gluing lesser players to the bench in a stretch of the season with no back-to-backs, other teams can catch up.