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Jabari Parker agrees to deal with Bulls after Bucks rescind qualifying offer

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Jabari Parker got his wish — he is going to be a Chicago Bull next season.

Saturday morning the Bucks rescinded their qualifying offer, making the former No. 2 pick and Chicago native an unrestricted free agent.

Parker quickly reached a two-year, $40 million deal with the Bulls that eats up their cap space for the summer, something broken by Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.

That is an overpay for Parker. Even so, the box lost a former No. 2 pick for no compensation. They did not want to trade him and now lost him for nothing.

A couple of seasons ago he was a 20-point a game scorer, but since then Parker has had a second ACL surgery, plus he was never much of a defender. This is a tight free agent market, they could have paid less and used some of that money for a free agent rotation player (although the market is slim).

The Bulls now have more than $38 million invested next season in players coming off major injuries, the other being Zach LaVine (the Bulls matched the offer sheet the Kings had for him).

The Bulls want to play Parker at the three (he spent 40 percent of his time at the three last season in Milwaukee), pared up front with Lauri Markkanen, Robin Lopez, and Wendell Carter Jr. The starting backcourt is Kris Dunn and LaVine. How well this group can fit in a selfless, move-the-ball Fred Hoiberg offense remains to be seen. Parker can play a small forward slot on offense, he’s good on the catch-and-shoot (better than a point per possession), can get out and score in transition, and is a better pick-and-roll ball handler than people realize. his minutes should be better than those of Paul Zipser or Denzel Valentine.

But Parker is going to get torched defensively by opposing threes.

If everything comes together for the Bulls next season, they should be interesting, but they have made a lot of big bets on players with question marks. It’s going to be an up-and-down season in the windy city.

Reports: Bulls working toward Jabari Parker offer sheet

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How much money is Jabari Parker worth a season?

The former No. 2 pick is coming off two ACL surgeries, which has given teams — including the Milwaukee Bucks, who have his rights — pause. Can he return to the form of a versatile a 20-point-a-game scorer? Will that make up for his defensive deficiencies?

The Chicago Bulls may be betting the answer is yes to both of those questions, something reported by Vincent Goodwill of NBC Sports Chicago.

That has been backed up by Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.

Restricted free-agent forward Jabari Parker and the Chicago Bulls are progressing on an offer sheet deal, league sources told ESPN on Friday.

A deal could be finalized as soon as Sunday, league sources said.

One of two things is going on here.

1) The Bulls are putting this out there to create leverage on Oklahoma City to give up more sweeteners in a Carmelo Anthony trade. After a couple of recent moves, the Bulls have the cap space to do an Anthony for Cristiano Felicio deal (with most of Anthony’s salary going into the Bulls’ cap space), then waive Anthony (allowing him to become a Rocket). The question is what sweeteners are going to the Bulls in such a deal, and this could be Chicago management putting a little public pressure on OKC to up the offer.

2) The more likely reality seems to be they really do like the idea of the Chicago native Paker as the three, with Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. rounding out the frontcourt (all paired with a Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine backcourt). Parker has played more than a third of his minutes the past couple of seasons as a three, he’s good on the catch-and-shoot (better than a point per possession), can get out and score in transition, and is a better pick-and-roll ball handler than people realize. It’s not a bad fit, especially compared to the Paul Zipser/Denzel Valentine options.

I’m not sure how well all of those guys fit together in a Fred Hoiberg selfless/move-the-ball offense, but it’s not a gamble — at the right price. And for the right number of years.

Which brings us back to the original question at the top of this article:  How much money is Jabari Parker worth a season? More than $15 million? How much and how many years will the Bulls be willing to put out there to see if this works (and they have to go big enough that the Bucks will not match, go too low and he stays in Milwaukee).

We’ll find out over the weekend, it looks like.

Report: Jabari Parker wants to join Bulls

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The Bulls are clearing cap space for… something.

Maybe Jabari Parker?

Vincent Goodwill of NBC Sports Chicago:

The Bulls are about $20 million below the salary cap. The Bucks are about $15 million below the hard cap.

This appears to be shaping up to an offer sheet that would require Milwaukee to make significant moves to match.

The Bucks probably wouldn’t go to that effort. They triggered the hard cap by signing Ersan Ilyasova knowing it might mean losing Parker, and Parker has been an awkward fit in Milwaukee. He somewhat clashes with Giannis Antetokounmpo, who – for what it’s worth – expressed a desire to retain Parker, anyway.

I’m hardly convinced Parker fits better with Lauri Markkanen in Chicago. Neither can defend the rim, and Parker has only barely flashed sound defense (not a strength of Markkanen’s either, though he’s far less proven). They would pair nicely offensively with their high skill levels, Markkanen more of a deep shooter and Parker capable from all areas of the floor.

Parker’s injury history is scary anywhere, though.

That same concern didn’t stop the Bulls from matching Zach LaVine‘s offer sheet. It might not keep them from trying to pry Parker, either.

That’d be welcome news for Parker, a Chicago native who has seemingly gained little traction with other teams in restricted free agency.

Report: Zach LaVine signs four-year, $78 million offer sheet with Kings, Bulls to match.

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UPDATE: The Chicago Bulls are going to match

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The Sacramento Kings had been talking to LaVine about a potential offer, and they came in big reports Shams Charania of The Vertical at Yahoo Sports.

The deal has no options and no-trade clauses, according to Vince Goodwill of NBC Sports Chicago. The Bulls’ deadline is 11:59 ET on Sunday.

To keep a team from matching on a restricted free agent, the team with the offer sheet usually has to overpay. Still, that is A LOT of money for LaVine. A lot.

That said, the Bulls and LaVine were talking and sources said the salary offer was around $18 million a season. Is that $2 million a season worth losing him? Or, have the Bulls shifted their focus more toward Lauri Markkanen as the cornerstone of the future.

LaVine is a bet on potential, he has shown a lot in stretches, but his game is based on athleticism and he is coming off an ACL surgery, then had to be shut down last season with knee tendonitis. Health has to be a concern.

However, if healthy he has the tools to be a quality two guard in the NBA. His last season in Minnesota before the ACL injury he averaged 18.9 points per game with an above-average 57.6 true shooting percentage and the ability to hit threes. The questions are can he get back to that place physically, and can his game mature to make up for any loss of athleticism? LaVine does put in the work. Also, to LaVine’s credit, since coming to the Bulls he embraced the role of being the new face of the franchise in public.

The Kings are betting that the Bulls don’t want to go up to $20 million, and Sacramento will have added to a young core that includes De'Aaron FoxBuddy Hield, and Marvin Bagley III. They will have some quality young pieces who can play an exciting up-tempo style.

Which rebuilding team is willing to pay LaVine for his potential?

2018 NBA Draft Prospect Profile: Marvin Bagley III is tweener of modern NBA

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The difference between Marvin Bagley III and DeAndre Ayton in terms of production was marginal.

Bagley shot better from three. Ayton was a better rim protector. Both scored at will, overwhelmed opponents in the paint and on the glass and needed to be graded on a learning curve as passers and positional defenders, particularly against pick-and-rolls.

The difference in what they can be projected doing at the next level, however, is fairly significant, and it’s the reason why you are seeing all the hype for Ayton as a potential No. 1 pick and none of it for Bagley.

That’s because Bagley is the perfect example of a tweener in the modern NBA.

Offensively, he’s everything that you want from a small-ball five. He can dominate in the paint, he can space the floor and he is aggressive and productive on the glass. He was a walking double-double in college and it’s not hard to project him being the same in the NBA.

The problem is that he is not a five on the defensive end of the floor. He’s not a rim protector by any means, and his relatively short wingspan coupled with the fact that his skinny frame makes it easy to overpower him in the paint makes it hard to figure how he can defend that position at the next level.

As the saying goes, you are the position you can guard, so what should NBA teams do with a top four pick that plays the five but will have to guard fours?

HEIGHT: 6-foot-11
WEIGHT: 234
WINGSPAN: 7-foot-0.5 (measured two years ago)
2017-18 STATS: 21.0 ppg, 11.1 rpg, 1.5 apg, 61.4/39.7/62.7
DRAFT RANGE: Top four

STRENGTHS

We can’t talk about Bagley without first talking about the level of athleticism that he has. He’s at the upper-echelon, even when weighted by NBA standards, and that is integral into the player that he is and what he can be at the NBA level. Bagley is an explosive leaper with a terrific second-jump, which is part of what makes him such an effective rebounder, particularly on the offensive end of the floor. Rebounding translates as well as any ability between levels, and it’s hard to imagine a world where Bagley isn’t able to get on the glass in the league.

Bagley is not just a rebounder, however. He’s a big-time scorer that was utterly dominant for long stretches of his freshman season, and the list of things that he’s able to do on that end of the floor is impressive and versatile. He’s at his best around the bucket — his PPP is 96th percentile nationally scoring at the rim — and while he was very left-hand dominant in the post while at Duke, some of that could simply be the result of opponents being unable to keep him from getting to his right shoulder.

More importantly, Bagley showed the ability to be able to stretch the floor. He shot 39.7 percent from three, and while that was a small sample size (58 attempts) and his free throw shooting was not great (62.7 percent) his stroke makes it possible to project him as a capable three-point shooter from the NBA strip. He can attack a closeout and his handle and mobility make him a threat to go coast-to-coast should he grab a defensive rebound. Throw in his ability in pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop actions, and he covers all the bases for what is asked of small-ball fives on the offensive end of the floor. He’s developing enough as a passer that it he is projectable as functional in that area at the next level.

While most everyone agrees that Bagley is a fit offensively for the way the NBA is headed, the defensive side of the ball is a different story.

WEAKNESSES

The crux of the issue for Bagley is that he simply is not built to defend fives at the next level.

He, quite frankly, is not a rim protector. The physical tools back that up. He’s 6-foot-11 but he has just a 7-foot-0.5 wingspan — for comparison’s sake, Ayton’s wingspan is 7-foot-5 — and he weighs at least 25 pounds less than the elite modern fives. He’s not built to block shots and he’s not built to bang.

The numbers back that up. His collegiate block rate, when compared to some other elite big men that have been drafted in recent years, is laughable. It doesn’t even compare with players like Frank Kaminsky and Jahlil Okafor, who have proven to be defensive liabilities in the NBA:

Okafor is a dinosaur, a relic of a past area whose skill-set simply does not fit in the modern NBA and is not all that comparable with that of Bagley. He’s probably not worth using in this discussion. Kaminsky is nowhere near the athlete that Bagley is, but he’s super-skilled offensively, which has allowed him to be an effective NBA rotation player.

Which leads me to my next point: Bagley can shoot but he hardly proved himself to be a great shooter. That 39.7 percent he shot looks great from the college line, but free throw shooting has been proven to be a better indicator of potential as an NBA three-point shooter and Bagley, even dating back to his high school days, has been a low-to-mid-60s free throw shooter. He might end up being a good three-point shooter, but that is anything-but a guarantee.

Athletically, Bagley has the tools to defend on the perimeter and in space. Duke was a disaster defending pick-and-rolls this past season. It’s the major reason they were forced to play zone exclusively. As one Duke staff member told NBC Sports, “we tried a lot of different things in man […] and none of it worked,” but that is something that has to be taken in context.

  • There were a lot of bad individual defenders on Duke’s team, and they all were freshmen — Trevon Duval, Gary Trent Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Bagley.
  • Bagley himself only played three seasons of high school ball and was allowed to do whatever he wanted at every level. His AAU program was run by his father and he never participated in any USA Basketball events. Has he ever truly been coached defensively?

Bagley’s issue on that end of the floor isn’t because he can’t defender but because he doesn’t know how to be a good defender. Ball-screen coverages can be taught, particularly when a player can move the way Bagley moves. Defensive rotations can be taught. His instincts are never going to be great on that end, but there’s no reason that Bagley cannot at the least be an average defender at the NBA level …

… as a four.

In an era where fours in the NBA are just bigger wings — where P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza are squaring off with Kevin Durant and Draymond Green in one conference final while LeBron and is battling with Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown at the four, assuming that those defenses aren’t switching everything — is Bagley really skilled enough to play that role?

I’ll leave you with these facts and figures to chew on:

  • Ben Simmons was the only player 6-foot-10 or taller in the NBA this past season to average at least 15 points without averaging more than 1.0 blocks or 1.0 made threes. Bagley averaged 0.9 blocks and 0.7 threes in college.
  • Since 1996, there have been just five big men selected in the lottery that have averaged less than 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks per 40 minutes: Lauri Markkanen, Trey Lyles, Domas Sabonis, Julius Randle and Derrick Williams.

NBA COMPARISON

Earlier on in the season, the comparison that I liked the most was John Collins, the Atlanta Hawks rookie that put together an impressive first season after a super-productive sophomore year at Wake Forest that was plagued by defensive issues. As the season went on, Domas Sabonis started to look like a better comparison as he grew into a contributor for the Pacers. I think Julius Randle and the role that he plays for the Lakers — something of a back-up five — makes a lot of sense now.

Bagley is a better prospect, and athlete, than all three of those players; we can use that as his floor. His ceiling? There’s an element of Amare Stoudamire in his game as well, and I don’t think it’s crazy to think that he could post numbers similar to what Stoudamire put up in his prime; his best season came in 2007 when he averaged 25.2 points, 9.1 boards and 2.1 blocks.

OUTLOOK

I think Bagley is going to end up being a very good NBA player. I think he’ll make some all-star teams, depending on which conference he ends up playing it. I think that he’ll post numbers that will make him a popular fantasy asset.

But I don’t think that he’s ever going to be the cornerstone of a franchise, not without quite a bit of help.

Let’s compare him to Deandre Ayton, because it’s easy and relevant and the two of them are dueling for a spot at the top of this year’s draft. Ayton has a defined skill-set and a defined position on both ends of the floor, one that should allow him to thrive in the modern world of the NBA where bigs are asked to protect the rim, switch onto guards, catch jobs and make threes. You take Ayton and figure the rest out because there are no requirements for who you need to put around him.

With Bagley, that’s not the case.

At the NBA level, for a team that he is featured on to win, he’s going to have to play alongside someone that can protect the rim and that can stretch the floor. If he falls to Memphis at No. 4, that might be a perfect situation for him. Marc Gasol is aging, but he’s still a guy that makes threes, can pass the ball and protects the rim. Bagley is freed up to do what he does best: Overpower people in the paint, use his athleticism to defend those smaller players on the perimeter and catch lobs at the rim. The same thing goes if he ends up on the same team as Kristaps Porzingis. Or Giannis. Or Draymond Green or DeMarcus Cousins or any of those other elite big men. Just about anyone can fit alongside players that can do what they do. That’s what makes them so good and so valuable.

Bagley will thrive if he finds a team with players that he fits alongside.

But he’s a piece to the puzzle, not the anchor you build around.

And there is a difference.