Three things to look for (with some betting tips) for Celtics-76ers Game 7

By Kurt HelinMay 13, 2023, 3:50 PM EDT

We ended up with one Game 7 in the second round. But it’s between the teams with the second- and third-best records in the NBA this season — and the winner is the clear title favorite heading into the Final Four.

Boston has been here before, one year ago, when Grant Williams hit the shots the Bucks dared him to shoot on his way to 27 points and a Celtics Game 7 win. They eventually went on to the NBA Finals (where they were up 2-1 on the Warriors before things went wrong).

Can Boston repeat their luck? Or is this the season Doc Rivers, James Harden and Joel Embiid banish their playoff ghosts and make the run they are fully capable of making?

Here are a couple of things to look for, plus some betting tips from NBC Sports Edge’s Vaughn Dalzell.

1) 76ers Tucker, Melton must knock down corner 3s for Philly to have a chance

The myriad of adjustments throughout this series comes down to this: Boston succeeded when Joe Mazzulla put defense first (finally). He started two bigs last game in Al Horford (usually guarding Joel Embiid) and Robert Williams III, who usually defended P.J. Tucker or De'Anthony Melton, the guys stationed in the corner.

Boston bet that Williams helping off that duo onto Embiid or roaming the paint to stop drives would not cost them because Tucker and Melton would not make them pay.

Tucker and Melton combined to shoot 2-of-11 from 3 in Game 6.

Hit more of those corner 3s, force Williams to come out and respect the shot and other things open up inside, such as room for Tyrese Maxey drives or Embiid doing Embiid things. The Sixers need those 3s to fall. If Boston can clog the paint, well, the 76ers had a dreadful 90.5 offensive rating last game and we’re likely to see that again.

2) Which duo steps up: Tatum and Brown or Embiid and Harden?

Game 7s often are remembered for unexpected, random players stepping up with big games or moments — Williams last season against the Bucks for the Celtics, or Metta World Peace for the Lakers in the 2010 NBA Finals against the Celtics — but this game may come down to something much more obvious:

Which team’s core duo steps up?

Jayson Tatum was 1-of-13 through three quarters of Game 6, and while Jaylen Brown was better he was far from overwhelming. Boston’s defense — and the Sixers missing open looks (see item No. 1) — let them hang around until Tatum got rolling and won Game 6. Boston cannot afford that kind of a slow start again, and Tatum is a combined 4-of-30 in the first half of the last three games. Bostons needs its biggest stars to step up and attack — even if that means some missed shots or passes to others, the Celtics need an aggressive, attacking Tatum and Brown. Boston remains the best team left in the playoffs when they are taking the game to their opponent and not waiting for the game to come to them. Which version of the Celtics shows up on Sunday?

At this point, there is no clever move for Doc Rivers to make that changes anything for Philly — their path to the conference finals is simply for the league MVP and the former MVP with the ball in his hands to take over and be the best players in this game. Maxey may get his, Tobias Harris is capable of a big game, and maybe George Niang has another surprisingly strong outing in him, but it all starts with Embiid being dominant on both ends and Harden controlling the game with his passing and pacing. Harden doesn’t need to score 45, but if he puts up an efficient 20 with a dozen assists he can swing the game.

Whose stars come to play with it all on the line?

3) Vaughn Dalzell’s Game 7 betting tips

The majority of public bettors like to take the home team and overs in Game 7’s because of the crowd edge and low totals, but both are actually non-profitable strategies. Here’s why:

Game 7’s have gone under the total 71% of the time since 2018 and 62% of the time since 2003.

The Celtics and 76ers’ Game 6 total was 212.5, yet the game finished with 181 combined points. Game 7 opened at 204, down by 8.5 points from 212.5. In the last 15 Game 7’s when the total moved at least five points lower than the previous Game 6 total, the Under is on a 13-2 winning streak (86.6%), which is in play here.

Home teams are actually not as profitable as you would think in Game 7’s. Over the last 18, the home team is 8-10 on the ML (44.4%) and 4-14 ATS (22.2%). If you remove the bubble games and look at Game 7s since 2018, well, home teams are 6-8 on the ML (42.8%) and 3-11 ATS (21.4%), so still not profitable.

Heat play their game — hit 3s, grind, own fourth — to even series with Nuggets

By Kurt HelinJun 4, 2023, 11:16 PM EDT

DENVER — It was a recipe familiar to Heat fans (and one that kept Bucks and Celtics fans up at night):

The Heat hit their 3-pointers at a seemingly unsustainable rate, 17-of-35 (48.6%). They got physical on defense and mucked up the Nuggets’ offense for stretches. Nikola Jokić was a scorer (41 points) but the Heat didn’t let him get the ball moving, allowing just four assists. The Heat were relentless and took advantage of their opponents’ undisciplined plays. The Heat owned the fourth with 36 points (to the Nuggets’ 25).

It was the recipe that got Miami to the NBA Finals and it won them Game 2 in Denver, 111-108. The NBA Finals are now tied 1-1, heading to Miami for Game 3 on Wednesday.

That familiar recipe included Miami’s role players stepping up as they have all postseason. Gabe Vincent scored 23 with 4-of-6 from 3, Max Strus started hot and finished with 14 points and six assists, and Duncan Robinson came off the bench for a hot start to the fourth quarter and scored 10 points that helped change the game.

Their stars made plays too, both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo scored 21. Butler had nine assists, Adebayo nine rebounds, and both made critical defensive plays. Everyone on the Heat stepped up when they had to.

“First, It’s part of our DNA for one, everyone on this team has been knocked down, we’ve faced adversity and gotten up again,” Vincent said when ask how the Heat keep having these kinds of games. “Second, we have a lot of experience in these close games.”

While Heat culture makes a good story, this is ultimately about the 3-point shooting — the Heat shot better than 50% from 3 in three of their four wins over the Celtics, and they have been having games like this all postseason. This was a game they shot their way to a win with those 17 threes. The Heat had 11 shots in the restricted area in Game 2, half of their regular season average — they just hit their jumpers.

For the Nuggets, it was about the mental and effort lapses they avoided in Game 1 that caught them in Game 2. The Nuggets played with the arrogance of a team that believes it’s the better one in the series and can flip the switch.

“Let’s talk about effort. This is NBA Finals, we are talking about effort; that’s a huge concern of mine,” a fuming Nuggets coach Michael Malone said postgame. “You guys probably thought I was just making up some storyline after Game 1 when I said we didn’t play well. We didn’t play well. Tonight, the starting lineup to start the game, it was 10-2 Miami. Start of the third quarter, they scored 11 points in two minutes and 10 seconds. We had guys out there that were just, whether feeling sorry for themselves for not making shots or thinking they can just turn it on or off, this is not the preseason, this is not the regular season. This is the NBA Finals. That to me is really, really perplexing, disappointing.

“I asked the team, I asked them, ‘you guys tell me why they lost.’ And they knew the answer. Miami came in here and outworked us, and we were by far our least disciplined game of these 16 or 17 playoff games, whatever it is now. So many breakdowns. They exploited every one of our breakdowns and scored.”

The Heat got what they wanted from the opening tip. On offense Max Strus was hitting — 4-of-7 from 3 in the first quarter alone — but it wasn’t just him. Heat midrange shots that clanged out in Game 1 dropped through the net Sunday. More importantly, having Butler start the game defensively on Jamal Murray along with Adebayo on Jokić slowed the Nuggets’ go-to pick-and-roll. Miami got the lead all the way to 11 as they pulled the game into the mud they needed to win.

However, in the final five minutes of the quarter the Nuggets started to find their legs and their offense — all thanks to their bench.

Christian Braun made two hustling defensive plays in a row, the second turning into a Jeff Green breakaway (where Haywood Highsmith fouled him). Then a Bruce Brown 3. Then a Jeff Green 3. Then a Murray 3. Then an Aaron Gordon 3. It was a Rocky Mountain avalanche of 3-pointers and the Nuggets started to pull away.

Denver’s run stretched out to 29-8 and the Nuggets led by as many as 15. However, as the teams returned to their starting lineups, the Heat got their groove back — Strus, Gabe Vincent and Butler were all in double digits in the first half. More telling, Kevin Love (inserted into the starting lineup for Game 2) was +15 and Strus +10 as all the Heat starters were in the positive. On the other end, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was -14, highlighting a rough night that eventually led to him fouling out.

Their bench had Nuggets were up 57-51, and it helped they won the non-Jokić minutes at the start of the second quarter by 14.

The start of the second half again saw the Heat increasing their defensive pressure, doing better in transition, and doubling Jokić in a way that bothered him. This slowed the Nuggets down and had them getting into their offense late, and it was back to a slow, grinding, Heat style of game.

That kept most of the third quarter tight, but in the final minutes of the half — when Bam Adebayo went to the bench — Jokić made plays, he finished with 18 points in the third alone, and the Heat entered the fourth ahead 83-75.

Then the relentless Heat made their run, with Robinson going on a personal 7-2 streak that grows into a 13-2 Heat run that puts them up by three.

From there, the Heat did their thing — they hit threes and played intense defense. The Nuggets didn’t match that energy until they tried to flip the switch in the final couple of minutes. They almost got it, Murray had a 3 to tie the game at the buzzer that bounced off the rim.

But the Nuggets lost the game much earlier.

Edwards, Brunson, Reaves reportedly among commitments to play for USA at World Cup

By Kurt HelinJun 4, 2023, 7:52 PM EDT

Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images

Steve Kerr will be coaching a roster filled with some of the most engaging young stars of the NBA at the World Cup this summer.

Names are starting to leak out of who has accepted invitations to play for USA Basketball this August and September, and it feels like a who’s who of the best young players in the league: Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, Tyrese Haliburton, Mikal Bridges, Austin Reaves and Bobby Portis.

Pacers All-Star Tyrese Haliburton and Nets rising star Mikal Bridges have committed to Team USA roster for 2023 FIBA World Cup, joining Anthony Edwards, Austin Reaves, Bobby Portis so far, sources tell me and @joevardon.

Full story at @TheAthletic: https://t.co/pr93pzxFwJ

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) June 4, 2023

The Knicks' Jalen Brunson is among the 12 expected roster members for @usabasketball at the @FIBAWC, sources tell @TheSteinLine.@TheAthletic reports Tyrese Haliburton, Anthony Edwards, Mikal Bridges, Bobby Portis & Austin Reaves also committed.

More: https://t.co/A6ycVmnrjq

— Marc Stein (@TheSteinLine) June 4, 2023

This is just the start of the roster, but it is a young and athletic group that can shoot, move the ball and play at pace — deep wells of athleticism have long been one of the USA’s biggest strengths in international competitions.

The World Cup will feature 32 teams around the globe in an almost three-week competition. The USA is in Group C with Greece and Giannis Antetokounmpo (assuming he plays), New Zealand (Steven Adams, if he plays) and Jordan.

The USA will be coached in this World Cup by Kerr, Erik Spoelstra of Miami, Tyronn Lue of the Los Angeles Clippers and Mark Few of Gonzaga. The USA will meet for a camp in Las Vegas and play Puerto Rico there as a tuneup before heading to Abu Dhabi and eventually on to the World Cup in the Philippines. The World Cup starts Aug. 25 and continues through Sept. 10, and the U.S. will play all of its games in Manila.

The World Cup is the primary qualifier for the 2024 Paris Olympics (the USA does not automatically qualify as the reigning gold medalist). USA Basketball President Grant Hill has said that playing in the World Cup is not a prerequisite for playing in the Olympics.

Phil Knight says he still wants to buy Trail Blazers, still waiting for team to be available

By Kurt HelinJun 4, 2023, 5:59 PM EDT

Michael Hickey/Getty Images

Phil Knight — not a man known for his patience — is waiting.

The Nike founder still wants the chance to buy the Portland Trail Blazers to ensure they stay in Portland, reports Rachel Bachman of the Wall Street Journal. However, the team remains unavailable. More than a year ago Knight and Dodgers co-owner Alan Smolinisky reportedly offered more than $2 billion to buy the Trail Blazers. Jody Allen, who currently runs the team on behalf of her late brother Paul Allen’s estate, said there is no plan to sell the team right now, and it could be years.

Statement from Jody Allen pic.twitter.com/oAezfb398o

— Portland Trail Blazers (@trailblazers) July 5, 2022

Knight continues to try and buy the team, the Journal reports.

So Knight and Smolinisky tried again, according to a person familiar with their plans. On numerous occasions, including earlier this year, they made it clear to Jody Allen that they still wanted to make a deal. They indicated that they realized the price had gone up and that they were willing to pay more than their initial offer, this person said. Again, Knight’s calls to Jody Allen were diverted to Kolde [Bert Kolde is the Executive Vice President of Sports Strategy at Vulcan Inc., which owns the Blazers and Seahawks], and nothing came of the brief discussions.

A few months ago, Smolinisky even sent a handwritten letter to Jody Allen seeking common ground and saying he and Knight would love to discuss the Blazers with her, according to a person familiar with the matter. In response, Smolinisky received an email from someone replying on Jody Allen’s behalf with a familiar message: Paul Allen’s sports teams aren’t on the market.

Paul Allen died of cancer in 2018 and some reports say his will requires the Trail Blazers — as well as the NFL’s Seahawks — must be sold within 10 years of that date, with the money from the sales going to a variety of charitable causes. We are halfway into that window.

In the case of the Trail Blazers, it would be wise to wait until the new national broadcast rights deal — which is expected to double, at least, the league’s television revenue — is locked in, raising the franchise value. Values have already gone up, with the Phoenix Suns being valued at $4 billion when Mat Ishbia bought them last December.

In the short term, the Trail Blazers and their fans are focused on the NBA Draft, where they have the No. 3 pick but are reportedly open to trading that for the right veteran to put next to Damian Lillard.

Coaching updates from around NBA: Stotts to Bucks, Young paid to stay with Suns

By Kurt HelinJun 4, 2023, 1:51 PM EDT

Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images

In the 24 hours since the last time we put together a list of coaching updates from around the NBA a lot of things transpired, some expected, some not.

Here’s an update on the NBA coaching carousel.

• As was rumored to be coming, former Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts will join Adrian Griffin’s staff with the Milwaukee Bucks. This is a smart hire, putting an experienced coach known for creative offense next to the rookie coach on a contending team. With the Bucks getting older and more expensive quickly — 35-year-old Brook Lopez is a free agent this summer — the Bucks don’t have time for a rookie coach to figure things out on the job.

• Kevin Young will stay in Phoenix on Frank Vogel’s staff after new owner Mat Ishbia made him the highest-paid assistant in the league at $2 million a year, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN. Devin Booker reportedly backed Young to get the head coaching job, although how hard Booker pushed is up for debate. Keeping Young on staff — likely in an offensive coordinator role — next to the defensive-minded Vogel could be a good fit.

• Former Hornets coach James Borrego was in the mix for several jobs but has settled in New Orleans, where he will be on Willie Green’s staff. This team is stacked with offensive talent — Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum — if they can just stay on the court.

ESPN Sources: James Borrego has agreed to become New Orleans’ associate head coach. Borrego spent four seasons as Charlotte’s head coach, including back-to-back play-in berths. Pelicans are eager to incorporate his offensive philosophy.

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) June 3, 2023

• There is now just one head coaching vacancy open around the league, the Toronto Raptors, and they are entering the final interview stages, reports Josh Lewenberg of TSN. Among the finalists for the job are Kings assistant coach Jordi Fernandez and highly-respected European coach Sergio Scariolo (the head coach of the Spanish national team and Virtus Bologna of the Italian league).

• The makeover of the Celtics coaching staff could go even deeper than expected because Ben Sullivan, Mike Moser and Garrett Jackson are all leaving Boston to join Ime Udoka‘s staff in Houston, reports Michael Scotto of Hoopshype.

• Former Pacers player Shayne Whittington is now a part of Rick Carlisle’s coaching staff in Indiana.

1) 76ers Tucker, Melton must knock down corner 3s for Philly to have a chance

2) Which duo steps up: Tatum and Brown or Embiid and Harden?

3) Vaughn Dalzell’s Game 7 betting tips

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