Three things to watch, play-in edition: Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat

By Kurt HelinApr 11, 2023, 9:55 AM EDT

Nic Antaya/Getty Images

These teams met in the playoffs last season, the 1-8 matchup after the Hawks came through the play-in, and it wasn’t much of a series. The Heat won 4-1 and moved on to push a Boston team seven games. In the four meetings between these teams this season, Miami won three.

The Heat have had the answers for Trae Young and the Hawks for the past couple of years, but Tuesday night comes and win-and-you’re-in single play-in game. Whoever wins this game advances into the playoffs as the No.7 seed to face the Celtics, the loser will play again Friday and host the winner of the Bulls at Raptors game (for the right to be the No.8 seed in the East).

What does Atlanta need to do to win that one game? What do the Heat need to do to continue their recent trend? Here are three things to watch Tuesday night.

1) Can Trae Young handle Heat blitzing, pressure?

The Heat’s defensive strategy for Young is straightforward and aggressive — blitz him, throw different looks and defenders at him, and get him off balance. Don’t let him get a rhythm. It has worked:

• In last year’s five-game playoff series, Young averaged 15.4 points per game (down from 28.4 in the regular season), 6 assists to 6.2 turnovers a game, and he shot 18.4% from 3 (38.2% on the season).

Trae Young on the Heat’s defense:

“I haven’t been guarded like this…consistently since high school.”

— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) April 25, 2022

• In four meetings this season, Young averaged 19.8 points (down from 26.2 overall) and 9.8 assists (10.2) a game, shooting 20.8% from 3 (33.5%), and having a 52.5 true shooting percentage (57.3).

Throw in the report the Hawks are willing to talk Young trade, and what is his head space going into the biggest game of the Atlanta season?

For Atlanta to have a chance, Young has to handle the Heat pressure, get the rock to Dejounte Murray and his other teammates, and trust them to make plays after he has drawn the defense. The heart of the four-time champion Warriors offense is exactly that — Stephen Curry‘s gravity draws the defenders and the rest of the Warriors take advantage. The Hawks have not consistently been able to execute that same concept, but Quin Snyder and company need Young to embrace it in this game.

If Murray is having a big game for Atlanta, that could be a good sign.

2) It’s playoff Jimmy Butler time

Miami is a team built for playoff basketball. They want a slow pace and to get physical, and the extra time off and reduced travel can help guys such as Kyle Lowry look and play closer to his vintage self.

Also, they have Jimmy Butler — his playoff performances are legendary. He was the best player on the court in the playoff series between these teams a season ago and carried that over to the meetings this season where he averaged 25 points, eight rebounds and 6.3 assists a game (he played in three of the four meetings).

Came upon this when watching Heat-Hawks stuff from last year

You never know when Jimmy Butler just goes video game mode lol pic.twitter.com/Wv2jSETEsQ

— Brady Hawk (@BradyHawk305) April 10, 2023

Atlanta hasn’t just struggled to defend Miami this season, it has struggled against everyone on its way to a bottom-10 defense. New coach Quin Snyder has not been able to change that on the fly this season, but if he and the Hawks don’t come up with a good defensive strategy for Butler and the Heat, it will be a long night for the Hawks fans.

3) Which team’s secondary stars, and role players show up?

Bam Adebayo had strong games against the Hawks this season — 24.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and four assists a game in the four meetings. If he can be an offensive force like that again, hitting floaters and getting matchups he likes, Miami will win.

Both the Heat and Hawks have struggled to get consistent play out of their role players this season and the team that does on Tuesday likely comes out with the win.

If it is Murray for Atlanta, that is a good sign — it means the Hawks have not just force-fed Young and the ball is moving to other shot creators. Maybe this becomes a strong De'Andre Hunter game or John Collins has a night. My money is on a big Saddiq Bey game, he wasn’t a part of last year’s playoff series and is a quality 3-point shooting big.

Whoever it is, the Hawks need someone to step up.

For Miami, keep an eye on Max Strus, who struggled with his shot for much of the season but was 15-of-33 (45.5%) from beyond the arc over the final five games. Caleb Martin should see more minutes, his switchability and defense has mattered in these matchups, and he can shoot the 3 ball. This also could become the Kevin Love revenge game against Cleveland.

Whichever Heat player gets hot from distance — Tyler Herro may have Young on him and should take advantage, but Herro struggled against the Hawks this season shooting 21.2% from 3 in those meetings — expect him to get the rock a lot. Miami is good about finding the hot hand and best matchup.

One other name to watch: Kyle Lowry. The Heat point guard has not played up to expectations this season, but has looked better when rested. He played nine minutes against Orlando on Sunday, but that was his only action since last Thursday, he should be good to go. If he can be another strong defender, the Heat are that much tougher to stop.

Miami has thrived in adversity all playoffs. They have plenty of it in Game 4.

By Kurt HelinJun 8, 2023, 5:46 PM EDT

MIAMI — Throughout the Heat’s playoff run, Erik Spoelstra has been confiding in and getting encouragement from another Miami coach — and it’s not Pat Riley.

Dolphins’ coach Mike McDaniel and Spoelstra have become friends.

“We’ve been texting back and forth,” Spoelstra said. “We share very similar thoughts about finding strength in adversity and using those as lessons to help you grow.”

Through that prism, the Heat have a real growth opportunity Friday night.

Miami trails Denver 2-1 in the NBA Finals heading into Game 4, and while that game is not technically must win for the Heat, it is in practice.

Getting that win means Miami finding some way to slow the Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray two-man game. Which is what every team has tried to do all playoffs long with no success, but Game 3 was the peak of their two-man game. The Nuggets stars ran 32 pick-and-rolls in Game 3, and those plays were the heart of both getting a 30+ point triple-double — the first teammates ever to have a 30+ point triple-double in any NBA game, ever. Murray and Jokić played 40 minutes together in Game 2 and the Nuggets were +14 in those minutes (in a game they won by 15).

“I mean, the Murray/Jokic two-man game is a pretty hard action to stop,” Haywood Highsmith said. “But we got great defensive players, got some of the great two-way players in this game, Jimmy [Butler] and Bam [Adebayo], so we’re gonna figure it out. We got a lot of different bodies we can throw at Murray as well.”

That might be the best adjustment the Heat can make —throw a lot of bodies at it, sell out to stop the Murray/Jokic two-man game and dare any other Nugget to beat them. Force them to diversify the offense. Denver coach Mike Malone has been able to lean into defensive lineups because Murray and Jokić provide enough offense, it’s time for the Heat to challenge that practice.

“Whatever you do, you just can’t do it all the time,” Spoelstra said of defending the Nuggets duo. “There’s no absolutes when you get to this level. It’s the highest level of competition. You’re getting the highest level of execution. Understanding what they’re trying to get to, and we try to get them out of their comfort zones as much as possible.

“The first half, they really got to that two-man action quite a bit. They were getting a lot of traction, so they didn’t need to go to any other part of their playbook.”

The Heat need to make adjustments, too.

One adjustment they will not make is playing Tyler Herro, he has been officially ruled out for Game 4. Herro went through a brief part of the fake practice/shootaround in front of the media on Thursday, but didn’t speak to the press. Spoelstra said Herro has not yet been cleared for a game, and while there were not a lot of details it didn’t sound like Herro was all that close.

Another thing the Heat need to do is less adjustment and more effort and luck — they simply have to shoot better.

Denver’s size bothered the Heat in the paint and Miami shot just 38.2% within eight feet of the basket. The Heat also got up 35 attempts from 3 but only hit 31.4% of that. Credit Denver’s size in the paint and they’re staying home with shooters for some of that, but Miami can — and Friday night must — do better.

Which brings up an interesting question: This deep into a playoff series, is it more about strategic adjustments, or effort and just playing better?

“I think it’s a little bit of both,” Highsmith said. “It’s definitely some things we can adjust on, and then it’s also about a little bit more effort and just doing more. You always need more, always can do more… we definitely have to make some adjustments on both ends of the floor, but you know, we’ll figure it out.”

Whatever Miami does defensively, Denver will score, they have an elite offense led by a two-time MVP in Jokić. If the Heat are going to even this series headed back to the Rocky Mountains, they must find more offense.

“I mean, they, they have a really good defensive scheme. They have good defensive players,” Duncan Robinson said. “You know, for us offensively, it’s going to be about creating advantages and really putting pressure on their schemes and their players to scramble and kind of get them a motion and a lot of that happens when we’re moving the ball attacking, playing to our identity.

“We had stretches last night, and definitely stretches in this series where we’ve done it. And, we’ve definitely had stretches where we haven’t gotten to that as much as we’d like to, so we’ll continue to work through it.”

They have to work through it fast because time is running out.

Bucks’ Middleton reportedly has knee scoped, should be ready for camp

By Kurt HelinJun 8, 2023, 1:24 PM EDT

Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images

The Bucks said an MRI of Khris Middleton‘s knee just before the start of the playoffs was clean even if his play made observers question that news.

Turns out, maybe it wasn’t totally clean.

Middleton had his knee scoped after the playoffs, but he will return to his offseason training in July, reports Shams Charania and Eric Nehm of The Athletic.

The report said the surgery was to clean up “an issue that plagued him this past season,” and it was scheduled before the Bucks’ playoff run began. So, they knew, as did most anyone who watched Middleton and didn’t see the same burst as he had in the past, especially on the defensive end. He looked a step slow.

This minor surgery shouldn’t change Middleton’s or the Bucks’ off-season plans. Whatever those may be. Middleton has a $40.4 million player option, something he reportedly is considering opting out of to re-sign a longer deal with Milwaukee — or elsewhere — likely at a lower per-season salary but with more total dollars (the team may also reach an extension with him). At age 31, Middleton may want the security of years.

Milwaukee needs Middleton and his shot creation, plus his two-way play, if they are going to compete at the highest levels. However, they need the healthy Middleton who was an All-Star and All-NBA player, not the one that only played in 33 games last season due to wrist surgery and knee issues.

It will be an interesting offseason in Milwaukee with 35-year-old Brook Lopez a free agent and Jrue Holiday becoming extension eligible in the fall. The Bucks had the best record in the NBA last season, but the roster is getting old and expensive fast, and a pivot is coming. At some point. But maybe not this summer.

Nuggets’ Christian Braun on verge of history, NCAA and NBA titles in consecutive years

By Kurt HelinJun 8, 2023, 9:24 AM EDT

MIAMI — Only four players have ever done it: Bill Russell, Magic Johnson, Henry Bibby and Billy Thompson.

Christian Braun could become the fifth player to win an NCAA title and an NBA championship in back-to-back seasons.

Last season he was the second-leading scorer on the Kansas Jayhawk team that won the NCAA tournament, with Braun scoring 12 points and grabbing 12 boards in the title game against North Carolina.

Braun isn’t just riding the Denver bench to his piece of history, he scored a critical 15 points in Game 3 to spark the Nuggets win. Braun scored 11 points in a stretch at the end of the third quarter and the start of the fourth when Denver pushed its lead to 21, then held off the early fourth quarter charge from Miami that had defined the Finals for two games.

Braun’s cuts to the rim — not to mention his steal and dunk — were things of beauty.

Christian Braun scores 15 points (7-8 FG) off the bench as Denver wins Game 3!

DEN/MIA Game 4: Friday, 8:30 PM ET on ABC pic.twitter.com/UrY4Al1Znc

— NBA (@NBA) June 8, 2023

“I told him, you won us the game…” Nikola Jokić said of Braun (which was generous considering Jokic’s 32-21-10 triple-double). “He won us the game, and he was really good tonight.”

“Tonight, man, I could just feel the confidence kind of oozing out of him,” Nuggets coach Michael Malone said. “The physical, aggressive drives, making plays for guys against their zone. It was really fun to watch a young man step up like the way Christian did tonight.”

Denver drafted Braun with the No. 21 pick and it was a perfect fit for the Kansas native (who led his high school team, Blue Valley Northwest High School in Overland Park, to three state titles). Braun was drafted onto a contending team and was given a clearly defined role by Malone. Braun took that and earned his minutes with hustle and defense all season long, and sometimes the points come with that.

“Those guys make it really easy,” Braun said of playing with Jokić and Jamal Murray. “Playing with those guys, they make the right play every time. My job is just to be ready when my name is called…

“Like I said, my job is not very hard; I’ve just got to come in, play with energy, and they find me in the right spots on offense and the defense just give effort. So those guys have trusted me all year and put me in the right spots and my job is to deliver.”

Braun was ready to deliver and it showed.

If he and the Nuggets can deliver a couple more wins, he will be part of a select group in history.

Three things to know from Denver dominating both ends, taking 2-1 series lead

By Kurt HelinJun 8, 2023, 8:14 AM EDT

MIAMI — That looked like the Denver team that rolled through the West. The one that — on paper — Miami would have trouble matching up with.

The Nuggets’ best game of the Finals and maybe their best of the playoffs, was led by Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray becoming the first teammates in any game to have 30+ triple-doubles.

“By far their greatest performance as a duo in their seven years together,” Nuggets coach Michael Malone said.

Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are the first pair of teammates with triple-doubles in Finals history!

Jokic: 32 PTS, 21 REB, 10 AST
Murray: 34 PTS, 10 REB, 10 AST

DEN/MIA Game 4: Friday, 8:30pm/et on ABC pic.twitter.com/0hLcPvv0zN

— NBA (@NBA) June 8, 2023

In our takeaways, we will focus on things other than Jokić and Murray’s greatness to start, but make no mistake, their dominance was the foundation on which this Nuggets win was built. Their play sparked Denver to a 109-94 win on the road to take a 2-1 series lead in the NBA Finals. Game 4 is Friday night in Miami.

Here are three takeaways from the Nuggets’ Game 3 win.

1) Denver’s size advantage was too much

The Heat knew it was coming and couldn’t do anything about it.

“I think that was their objective, to get in the paint, get inside and use their size and physicality,” Kyle Lowry said. “And, yeah, that’s what they did tonight.”

“They just pummeled us in the paint,” Erik Spoelstra added. “They didn’t really have to shoot threes. They had, whatever, 60 [points] in the paint. They probably shot over 65% in the paint at the rim there [69% in the restricted area]. Wasn’t a need to space the floor. We didn’t offer much resistance.”

There’s an old basketball saying that tall and good beats small and good. That was in evidence on both ends of the floor on Wednesday night in Miami.

On offense, the Nuggets’ big adjustment was they changed the screening angles for Murray and that — combined with a determination on his part to get downhill at the rim — changed the game. Behind Murray the Nuggets scored 20 of its first 24 points in the paint. As noted above, the Nuggets went on to get 60 points in the paint.

Size showed on the Nuggets defense in the Heat shooting 38.2% within eight feet of the basket. While some of that had to do with better low-man help rotations from the Nuggets, their size with the guys making those rotations flummoxed the Heat.

“Yes, you do have to credit their size and everything like that, but we have proven that we can finish in the paint when we’re at our best,” Spoelstra said. They didn’t in Game 3 and had better find a way to do it in Game 4.

2) Nuggets’ defense was dialed in

This was The Nuggets’ best defensive game of the series. But don’t take my word for it, just ask their coach, Michael Malone.

“I thought our defense was fantastic tonight,” he said. “You hold that team to 94 points, 37 [percent] from the field, only 11 threes, that really helped us out tonight. The defending and rebounding at a high level.”

As Malone noted, the Nuggets held Denver to 37% shooting, or look at it this way, they held the Heat to a 102.2 offensive rating (12.8 below their playoff average).

Or, check out this stat from The Athletic’s Law Murray: The Heat were 17-of-46 (37%) on shots outside the paint, but they were also 17-of-46 on shots in the paint.

After Malone called out the Nuggets — publicly and privately — for their mental lapses on defense in Game 2, his team came out much sharper in Game 3. That showed in a couple of places, but first and foremost with effort and activity level — Denver was much more aggressive. They were taking swipes at the ball when Miami players would catch it, never letting them get comfortable.

The other area the Nuggets cleaned up was on low-man help rotations when Jokić had to show out on a pick. The Heat have thrived on little pocket passes to Bam Adebayo in this series, but the rotations from the Nuggets took the easy buckets away on those as players got in front of him. The confidence in his back line allowed Jokić to play out a little higher at points.

It’s on Spoelstra to come up with some counters, although what Miami needs to do in Game 4 doesn’t start with the coaching staff.

3) Butler, Adebayo need to be able to hang with Jokić, Murray

Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have to be better. It’s that simple.

They don’t have to put up matching 30-point triple-doubles, but they can’t shoot a combined 18-of-45 (40%) with seven assists. They can’t combine to shoot 10-of-30 in the paint. They have to be more efficient and come close to matching Jokić and Murray on the night to have a chance.

“We didn’t play our best tonight,” Butler said of the Heat, sitting next to Adebayo in the press conference. “I feel like we just got to come out with more energy and effort, and that’s correctible. That’s on us as a group. No X’s and O’s can fix that.”

The Heat stars got outplayed on both ends. While their shooting woes are mentioned above, they were also the primary defenders on the Murray/Jokick pick-and-roll and they didn’t stop that either. Even in the second half when the Heat started blitzing the ball handler and consistently bringing a third defender early into the action, it didn’t matter, the Nuggets made the read and the play.

I don’t know. We’re going to get back to the film and figure it out, because we do have to be better guarding both of those guys,” Butler said. “One is the ball-hander and one is the guy that is setting the screen and popping and rolling. It’s not an easy task to do, but if we want to win, we are going to have to figure it out.”

Spoelstra thinks maybe the missed shots on the offensive end got in his team’s heads and impacted Miami’s defense.

“It felt like at times, some of those missed shots at the rim or in the paint, the makeable shots that we’ve made the last several months or weeks, that affected a little bit of our, whatever, going down the other end,” Spoelstra said. “And that hasn’t happened a lot.”

In addition to those two, the Heat roll players have to hit their 3-pointers, something they did in Game 2 and did not in Game 3. Max Strus was 1-of-4 from beyond the arc, Gabe Vincent 1-of-6, and as a team Miami was 11-of-35 (31.4%). The Heat’s 3-point shooting has been their bellwether all playoffs, and if they are going to hang with this Nuggets offense they have to knock those down at a better than 40% rate.

The one bright spot for the Heat was in garbage time, Udonis Haslem, at age 43, became the oldest player to appear in an NBA Finals game ever. He deserves that. Although you know he’d trade it for a win in a heartbeat.