The Rockets, Magic, Pistons and Thunder had the highest lottery odds last year.
This year… the Rockets, Magic, Pistons and Thunder have the highest lottery odds.
Lottery reform boosted odds for teams in the middle of the lottery at expense of the worst teams. That might partially explain Orlando and Oklahoma City not drafting immediate-game-changing players last year. However, Detroit and Houston got the top two picks.
Maybe these same teams are just poorly run – though it doesn’t seem any of the four was overly eager to leap up the standings. In a post-Process NBA, teams appear more willing to undertake multi-year rebuilds. Sam Hinkie really removed the stigma around multi-year tanking (though exceeded the 76ers’ acceptable limit).
Whatever the reason(s), the 2022 NBA Draft lottery odds look strikingly similar to last year’s – as shown below.
The odds reflect a few trades. The Pelicans will receive the Lakers’ pick in the 99.6% chance it lands in the top 10. In the 0.4% chance it lands No. 11 or No. 12, it will go to Memphis. The Thunder will receive the Clippers’ pick.
Here are the odds for tonight’s lottery. Picks a team cannot get are not displayed. If a team has a chance – but a less than 0.5% chance – of a pick, it’s rounded to 0%.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Portland Trail Blazers
New Orleans Pelicans
San Antonio Spurs
New York Knicks