The 2019 NBA Draft lottery was especially important.
Just two years later, the lottery has even wilder stakes.
Thanks to a few trades, pick protections – not just the usual lottery luck – will swing whether teams have access to highly touted prospects Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green and Jonathan Kuminga.
The Rockets keep their first first-rounder only if it lands top four (52% chance). Otherwise, they’ll swap the No. 5 pick to the Thunder for the No. 18 pick (48% chance).
The Timberwolves keep their first-rounder only if it lands top three (28% chance). Otherwise, they’ll convey it to the Warriors (73% chance). If keeping its pick this year, Minnesota will owe Golden State an unprotected first-rounder next year.
The Bulls keep their first-rounder only if it lands top four (20% chance). Otherwise, they’ll convey it to the Magic (80% chance). If keeping its pick this year, Chicago will owe Orlando a top-three-protected first-rounder next year.
Of course, the Pistons, Magic, Thunder, Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Raptors, Kings, Pelicans, Hornets, Spurs, Pacers and Warriors also have their own unprotected lottery picks this year.
Here are the odds for the 14 teams involved in tonight’s lottery. Picks a team cannot get are not displayed. If a team has a chance – but a less than 0.5% chance – of a pick, it’s rounded to 0%.
Oklahoma City Thunder
New Orleans Pelicans
San Antonio Spurs
Golden State Warriors