Historically deep set of teams contending for 2021 NBA championship

By Dan FeldmanMay 22, 2021, 9:00 AM EDT

Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images

As Giannis Antetokounmpo said, the Bucks might win the championship or they might not. But they have a realistic chance.

Using betting futures to create odds, Milwaukee has a 9% chance to win the title. In each of the previous eight years, a 9% chance would rank third or fourth in the NBA entering the playoffs.

This year, it ranks sixth.

The 2021 title chase appears wide open with several teams holding at least reasonable odds.

The championship chances of each playoff team based on betting futures:

Brooklyn Nets: 26%
Los Angeles Lakers: 17%
L.A. Clippers: 13%
Utah Jazz: 11%
Philadelphia 76ers: 10%
Milwaukee Bucks: 9%
Phoenix Suns: 3%
Denver Nuggets: 3%
Miami Heat: 2%
Dallas Mavericks: 2%
Portland Trail Blazers: 1%
Atlanta Hawks: 1%
Boston Celtics: 1%
New York Knicks: 1%
Washington Wizards: 0%
Memphis Grizzlies: 0%

Beyond the six teams with at least a 9% chance, the Suns (3%) seem undervalued. The Nuggets (3%) would have ranked higher if not for Jamal Murray‘s injury (and Will Barton‘s and P.J. Dozier‘s).

Still, six teams with at least a 9% chance to win the title entering the playoffs is quite high.

Under the current 16-team format, that happened only one other time, according to Sports Odds History. In 1995, the Spurs (15%), Bulls (13%), SuperSonics (11%), Magic (11%), Suns (11%) and Jazz (11%) entered the playoffs with relatively flat championship odds. The Rockets (4%) – who ranked below the Pacers (8%) and Knicks (8%) and were tied with the Hornets (4%) – won the title.

So, 2021 doesn’t compete with 1995.

But this is a major diversion from recent history – at least outside the bubble.

The Clippers entered the 2020 playoffs at Disney World as favorite with a 24% chance of winning the championship. That’s less than the 2021-favorite Nets’ 26% chance.

Prior to that, though, the Warriors spent five straight years entering the postseason with higher odds than Brooklyn has this year. In three of those years, Golden State was even favored over the field.

Again, it’s not just that no single team is highly favored this year. It’s that so many teams have a realistic chance. Last year, there was a steep drop after the Clippers (24%), Lakers (22%) and Bucks (19%). This year, many more teams are in the mix.

Here are teams’ championship odds entering the playoffs since 1984,* when the NBA adopted a 16-team playoffs, sorted by rank among teams that season. This year’s teams are red:

*Excluding 2003 and 1987, years Sports Odds History doesn’t have full data.

Notice how high 2021 places in sixth, fifth and even fourth. At No. 1, 2021 is notably unexceptional.

The 2021 playoffs aren’t unsettled only because of the championship race. Individual series are also topsy-turvy.

In the previous five years combined, two lower seeds were favored to beat higher seeds in the first round. This year, there are three:

7. Lakers over 2. Suns
6. Trail Blazers over 3. Nuggets
5. Hawks over 4. Knicks

Using betting odds to predict seed upsets in the first round, the three this year are most on record.

The seventh-seeded Lakers are also the lowest seed in the Sports Odds History database to be favored in a series.

But that was before Lakers star LeBron James was found to have violated the NBA’s coronavirus protocols. That could tilt the odds.

These playoffs are so unpredictable.

Watch Derrick White putback force Game 7 as Celtics edge Heat

By Kurt HelinMay 27, 2023, 11:48 PM EDT

What. A. Game.

In the best game of these playoffs — as good as one in any postseason — it looked like the Miami Heat were going to get a culture win on a night their star Jimmy Butler was off his game until the final minutes. Three Butler free throws with :03 remaining put the Heat up by one, but the Celtics got one last chance. Marcus Smart short-armed that chance, but Derrick White was hustling along the baseline.

DERRICK WHITE SAVES THE CELTICS SEASON. pic.twitter.com/566F29RWEV

— Celtics on NBC Sports Boston (@NBCSCeltics) May 28, 2023

Miami gets the 104-103 win to even the series 3-3 and force a Memorial Day Game 7 back in Boston.

This was the kind of ugly, gritty game the Celtics tend to give away. They were certainly not at their peak in this one, shooting 7-of-35 from 3 as a team — usually a stat that leads to a loss for this Celtics team, which leans into the 3-pointer.

What saved them was a brilliant first half from Jayson Tatum, some solid play from Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart in the second half, and an off night at the worst time for the Heat stars.

The first half was the Tatum show as he scored 25 points on 7-of-13 shooting, with 11 free throws and a couple of assists. He was attacking and aggressive, and the rest of the Celtics offense flowed off that and they got the lead up to 11.

However, the Heat closed that lead down to four at the half, 57-53, thanks largely to 9-of-15 shooting from 3.

This was almost a culture win for the Heat. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo were not the stars the Heat needed — they shot a combined 7-of-35 until the final minutes of the game — but the Miami role players stepped up. Caleb Martin got the start over Kevin Love and was the Heat’s best player on the night with 21 points on 7-of-13 shooting plus 15 rebounds. Gabe Vincent returned from his sprained ankle to score 15, Duncan Robinson had 13 off the bench, and Max Strus added 10.

With their stars off their game the Heat struggled to score in the third, starting the quarter shooting 5-of-24 (20.8%), yet by the time the quarter was over the Heat were still only down seven. Miami was hanging around in a game they should have been blown out of.

That’s because the Celtics shot 5-of-25 from 3 through 3 quarters, plus Boston had 11 turnovers through three (compared to four for the Heat).

Tatum finished with 31 points to lead Boston, Jaylen Brown had 26 despite battling foul trouble all night, and Marcus Smart added 21.

Boston had a 10-point lead midway through the fourth quarter but gave it away with missed shots and sloppy play under pressure. Meanwhile, Jimmy Butler hit a big 3-pointer, kept attacking, and got to the free throw line with the chance to put his team ahead in the final seconds. And did. It looked like a classic, gutty, Heat culture win.

And then Derrick White happened.

And now there is a Game 7.

Milwaukee Bucks reportedly to hire Adrian Griffin as head coach

By Kurt HelinMay 27, 2023, 2:43 PM EDT

Vaughn Ridley/NBAE via Getty Images

Buzz had been growing for a week that Raptors assistant coach Adrian Griffin was the favorite Bucks coaching candidate of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Nick Nurse had his backers in the organization, but in a superstar-driven league, the wishes of players like the Greek Freak hold a lot of sway (especially with him up for a new contract in a couple of years).

The Milwaukee Bucks are reportedly hiring Griffin as their next head coach, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.

ESPN Sources: The Milwaukee Bucks are planning to hire Toronto Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin as the franchise’s next head coach. Sides are progressing on terms of an agreement. pic.twitter.com/Kz1iydRKsF

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) May 27, 2023

This reaction from Fred VanVleet should tell you all you need to know about how the Raptors players felt about Griffin.

Well deserved 🔥🔥🔥 @NBACoachGriffin yeah griff!!!!! https://t.co/neijpk0ma6

— Fred VanVleet (@FredVanVleet) May 27, 2023

This hire is a gamble by the Bucks, turning the keys of a contender over to a rookie coach, but Griffin is more than deserving of a shot. Griffin spent eight years as a role player in the NBA — after going undrafted out of Seton Hall hand having to play in the Philipines — and then got into coaching, starting as an assistant in Milwaukee from 2008-2010. Griffin is seen as a defensive-first coach with a strong player development background (he worked with Jimmy Butler in Chicago). He’s been at or near the top of the “guys who deserve a shot” list for years and was in consideration for the open Raptors job in Toronto.

Instead, he now takes over a contender, although with a roster that is getting older and more expensive fast (free agent center Brook Lopez turns 35 this year, Khris Middleton is 31 and has a $40.4 million player option, Jrue Holiday is 31 and extension eligible come the fall).

Griffin will replace Mike Budenholzer, who was let go despite winning a championship with this team in 2021. Budenholzer is a process guy and was considered too rigid and slow to make adjustments in the playoffs, and this year’s first-round elimination by the No. 8 seed Miami Heat was seen as the culmination of that (even though Antetokounmpo missed two games due to a back injury). Griffin will bring a different voice and some new looks to a Bucks team still in its championship window.

Don’t be surprised if the Bucks hire a former NBA head coach to be Griffin’s lead assistant, to give him a veteran voice as a sounding board.

Nurse had been considered one of the frontrunners for this job, but now looks like someone destined to land in Philadelphia or Phoenix.

Heat guard Gabe Vincent reportedly to play in Game 6

By Kurt HelinMay 27, 2023, 2:07 PM EDT

Officially, Heat guard Gabe Vincent is listed as questionable for a critical Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Saturday night. He missed Game 5 due to a sprained ankle suffered late in Game 4 but was a partial participant in Saturday’s shootaround, according to Ira Winderman of the Sun Sentinel.

However, a report from Ben Rohrbach of Yahoo Sports points to what everyone expects: Vincent will play in Game 6.

Gabe Vincent is expected to play for the Miami Heat in Game 6 after sitting the Game 5 loss with an ankle injury, league sources tell @YahooSports. He was listed as questionable on yesterday’s injury report.

— Ben Rohrbach (@brohrbach) May 27, 2023

Miami needs him back if they are going to win Game 6 at home and end this series (the Heat lead the series 3-2).

Not just because Vincent has averaged 17.5 points per game this series, but because of his ball handling and shot creation. In the second half of Game 4 and through Game 5, the Celtics changed their defensive game plan, becoming aggressive at jumping passing lanes, bringing doubles on drivers, and trying to force turnovers. During the regular season the Celtics were a bottom-five team in forcing turnovers by design — they bet that their impressive one-on-one defenders could make shots difficult and so off-ball defenders largely stayed home on guys off the ball and didn’t take risks. That changed and Miami struggled to adjust in Game 5, with Kyle Lowry — starting in place of Vincent — having three costly early turnovers.

Vincent back in the lineup could help counter the Celtics’ defense. Miami also needs great games from Jimmy Butler (who looked tired in Game 5) and Bam Adebayo, who also had an off game in Boston.

The Heat want no part of a Game 7, they need to close this series out Saturday night. They need Vincent to do that.

Coaching carousel update: Nick Nurse has strong, not universal, support in Milwaukee

By Kurt HelinMay 27, 2023, 11:13 AM EDT

Five open coaching jobs remain around the NBA: Phoenix Suns, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors and Detroit Pistons.

Here is the latest on the searches to fill those openings.

UPDATE: The Milwaukee Bucks will hire Adrian Griffin as their new head coach.

—————————–

• Nick Nurse may be the first domino to fall with him having drawn interest from the Suns, Bucks and 76ers. Nurse has strong support in Milwaukee, but it’s not universal, reports Ian Begley of SNY.tv.

So it’s worth noting that, as of earlier this week, Nick Nurse’s candidacy had strong support within the organization. Though not all key stakeholders in Milwaukee were aligned on Nurse, per SNY sources.

• Nurse has interviewed in Phoenix as well. Their top target was current Clippers coach Tyronn Lue, according to multiple reports, but Begley reinforces what has been reported here at NBC Sports and other places: The Clippers are not expected to part ways with Lue. Even if they do, the Clippers will not let their coach walk to a division rival in Phoenix.

• Momentum appears to be building behind Suns’ assistant coach Kevin Young getting a promotion in Phoenix, with Marc Stein reporting he got a key endorsement.

Word is Young, who has also interviewed for the head coaching vacancies in Milwaukee and Toronto, has received a strong endorsement from Suns star Devin Booker.

• It would be risky to put a first-time head coach in charge of a contender in Phoenix. If new owner Mat Ishbia goes that route, look for the Suns to get a former NBA head coach to be his assistant (don’t be surprised to see that in Boston next season as well, where Joe Mazzulla is expected to remain as coach).

• Nurse, former Nets’ head coach and current Warriors assistant Kenny Atkinson, and Raptors assistant Adrian Griffin remain the finalists for the Bucks head coaching job. Stein reports Giannis Antetokounmpo is “intrigued” by Griffin.

• Toronto’s coaching search could be influenced by which direction team president Masai Ujiri decides to take the roster, something else up in the air. From ESPN’s Brian Windhorst on the Hoop Collective podcast (hat tip Real GM).

“In talking to folks that have been in touch with the Raptors recently, the Raptors don’t seem to know which direction they’re going to take. Whether or not they are going to focus on re-signing Fred VanVleet, extending Pascal Siakam, potentially making other roster upgrades. Or whether or not they’re going to send Fred VanVleet in a sign-and-trade, maybe investigate moving other players be it OG Anunoby or Pascal Siakam.”

• Multiple reports have Bucks’ assistant Charles Lee and former UConn coach Kevin Ollie as the frontrunners to be the next head coach in Detroit. Pistons’ ownership reportedly backed the Brinks truck up to Monty Williams’ house but he was not interested, Stein reported. The buzz has been that GM Troy Weaver is backing Ollie.

• The only coaching vacancy filled so far this offseason is Ime Udoka taking the job as the Rockets’ head coach.

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