Winners and losers from Giannis Antetokounmpo re-signing with Bucks

By Kurt HelinDec 15, 2020, 11:06 PM EST

Giannis Antetokounmpo decided to stay home in Milwaukee, signing a super-max extension, in part because he believes he can win there (his biggest concern). The fact the Bucks can guarantee him $228.2 million over the next five years didn’t hurt.

Antetokounmpo’s decision was the most impactful player decision in the NBA since LeBron James decided to come to Los Angeles, and there have been reactions and reverberations around the league. As with every big move, there are some winners and losers, and while there are far more winners in this case let’s break it down.

Winner: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Duh. The man just locked in $228.2 million. Even Steve Ballmer thinks that’s a lot of money. Antetokounmpo also gets to stay in the only city he has called home in the United States — he’s said he’s not drawn to the bright lights of Los Angeles or Miami — and the first city he and his family ever felt safe, comfortable, and welcomed.

Antetokounmpo used his leverage to pressure the Bucks to upgrade the roster and only signed this deal after being convinced that the Bucks were serious about winning — and willing to spend to do it. Antetokounmpo knew what he wanted and got it.

Winner: Milwaukee Bucks and Bucks’ fans

The Milwaukee Bucks locked up the two-time reigning MVP as he heads into his prime, a move that should make them contenders for each of the next five years (if they’re not, it’s more about the Bucks front office than Antetokounmpo). That’s a win for Milwaukee, a win for their fans, and a win for small and mid-sized markets around the league. Do most things right, build a winner around them, and those markets can keep a superstar.

However, this does not guarantee the Bucks a title in the next few years. According to odds provided by our partner, PointsBet, it’s just slightly better than 50/50 that Antetokounmpo wins a ring with the Bucks.

💰 Giannis has 228 million reasons to be happy in Milwaukee over the next five years. 💰

But @PointsBetUSA is talking titles. Do you think the Bucks capture a championship during his new deal? 🏆 pic.twitter.com/S8jVC7Q6WO

— NBC Sports Bet (@NBCSportsBet) December 16, 2020

Losers: Miami/Dallas/Toronto

These teams are not really losers, but they are teams now forced to recalibrate. All of them kept cap space or trade options open to land Antetokounmpo if he decided to move on from Milwaukee. Now each one has to adjust their master plan.

Miami is in the best position. The Heat already used their cap space to lock up Bam Adebayo, and they still have a lot of young players that would be interesting to a team looking to trade a superstar. Miami made the Finals a last season yet is still poised to chase another star (via trade or sign-and-trade), and will be in that position for years.

Toronto is retooling the roster around Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby at the forward spots, and they locked up Fred VanVleet this offseason, but the Raptors now need to strike a deal with Masai Ujiri and then go find their next star.

Dallas is in the toughest spot of the three because they lack picks and young players they are willing to give up in a trade. Dallas has no clear path now to adding a third star because they needed to do it through free agency and…

Loser: 2021 Free Agency

LeBron James signed an extension to stay with the Lakers, and as expected Anthony Davis did the same — neither inked shot deals either, the Lakers have them for three years. Paul George signed a max deal to stay with the Clippers. Now Antetokounmpo is off the market.

The much-hyped free agent class of 2021 suddenly looks very thin. Kawhi Leonard is the biggest name, but with the George re-signing in Los Angeles — and the fact Leonard forced his way back to SoCal — it is widely expected around the NBA Leonard re-signs with the Clippers. Who are the best free agents after that? Rudy Gobert, and maybe Victor Oladipo depending upon how he plays this season. Those are good players, and this is a deeper free agent class than this past one, but the franchise-changing talent at the top is gone. This class is not nearly as sexy.

Which leads to…

Winner: Houston Rockets (and maybe the Washington Wizards)

With teams not able to find a superstar through free agency, suddenly James Harden‘s star shines a little brighter. He’s a former MVP and one of the top five players on the planet, a guy who can drop 30 a night and do it efficiently. The concerns about him being 31 with a lot of miles on that body (on and off the court), the concerns about having to re-sign him in two years at age 33, the concerns about how well he plays with other stars are all still there, but for teams that don’t have options those risks don’t look as daunting. Houston continues to ask for more than anyone will offer for The Beard right now, but this helps the Rockets’ leverage.

Miami has said it is interested in Harden, and if it can get a deal done for Tyler Herro, some other young players, salary guys (Kelly Olynyk, Andre Iguodala), and a couple of picks, it might well be worth it.

That is, unless the Heat want to wait and see what the Wizards do with Bradley Beal. Like Houston, Washington is sitting in a better spot to trade its star now, except the Wizards have no intention of doing so — at least in the short term. They want to see if they can make a playoff run with Beal and Russell Westbrook. But if that goes sideways by the trade deadline, or by next offseason, Washington may feel differently, and it will be in a strong position.

Winner: Jrue Holiday

Antetokounmpo just signed a max contract, and Khris Middleton will make $35.5 million next season on top of that. Throw in $13.3 million for Brook Lopez at center, a combined $12.3 million for D.J. Augustin and Pat Connaughton, plus contracts to round out the roster, and suddenly the Bucks are a team over the tax line and with limited ways to improve for the season after this one. This means they MUST re-sign Holiday (something they needed to do anyway after giving up a boatload of picks to land him).

Holiday, who has a $26.7 million player option next season, is expected to opt-out and has all the leverage. He likely will get a contract that starts at about that number and extends out for years. Holiday is a former All-Star, and should be a better playoff fit in the backcourt for the Bucks than Eric Bledsoe, but he has the leverage to get paid like a superstar now.

Pistons reportedly to make another big-money run at Monty Williams

By Kurt HelinMay 31, 2023, 7:27 PM EDT

Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

Not long after Dwane Casey left the bench and moved into the Pistons’ front office, the Pistons called Monty Williams and tried to make a big money offer to entice him to come, something reported at the time by Marc Stein. Buzz grew around the league that Williams — who was let go by the Suns after they fell in the second round — was going to take a little time off from coaching before jumping back into the grind.

The Pistons have gone through their coaching search — reportedly with former Bucks’ assistant Charles Lee and former UConn coach Kevin Ollie as the frontrunners — but before picking one of them the Pistons are going to make one more run at Williams, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic.

The Pistons are preparing to offer Williams in the range of $10 million per year, league sources said, which would put him among the league’s highest-paid coaches. Detroit has been hopeful over the past several weeks that Williams would consider accepting the job, sources added…

If Williams declines the proposal, Lee, a Bucks assistant since 2018, is expected to emerge as the likely choice, league sources said.

This report was echoed by Stein, who added details.

The offers have been consistently estimated to me at $50 million over five years or even $60 million over six years. Sources say that two of the Pistons’ previously reported finalists for the post — Bucks associate head coach Charles Lee and former UConn coach Kevin Ollie — were only summoned to meet face-to-face with Pistons owner Tom Gores for a second time after Williams turned them down the first time.

The phrasing from Charania — “Detroit has been hopeful… that Williams would consider accepting the job” — is no accident, that’s a sign of what they expect to happen.

If you were the owner/PR staff of a struggling team — one that the lottery gods just knocked down to fifth in the upcoming NBA Draft — and you were about to hire a deserving but not well-known coach to lead your franchise, leaking about the big offer you made to the big name coach is smart spin. If Williams takes the money, the Pistons land a top-flight coach. If Williams says “no thanks” then you can tell the fan base you tried.

The Pistons entered last season hoping to make a run to the play-in, but those hopes were dashed when Cade Cunningham was injured a dozen games into the season and missed the rest of it. With Cunningham back along with Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Bojan Bogdanovic and the No. 5 pick, expectations of wins will greet whoever is the new coach.

New York Knicks part ways with GM Scott Perry

By Kurt HelinMay 31, 2023, 1:46 PM EDT

Dustin Satloff/Getty Images

When Scotty Perry came on board with the Knicks, they felt like chaos personified off the court, and on the court their best players were Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr.

That era seems like another lifetime ago. Perry, first with former team president Steve Mills and then with the next president Leon Rose, brought professionalism and stability to the New York Knicks not really known in the James Dolan era. The Knicks may not yet be contenders, but they have built a 47-win team behind Jalen Brunson with 11 first-round picks in the next seven years (to use or trade for a star). The Knicks are well-positioned for the future and Knicks fans are as optimistic as they have been in decades.

Which is why it’s news that Perry and the Knicks are parting ways, something reported by multiple sources, including Ian Begley at SNY.tv. Perry’s contract was up.

It will be interesting to see where the Knicks go from here. Former Timberwolves president Gersson Rosas was added as an executive last season. The Knicks could give Rosas the full-time position or promote another front office member, such as assistant general manager (pro scouting) Frank Zanin or assistant general manager (college scouting) Walt Perrin. Brock Aller already has a vice president title (Vice President, Basketball and Strategic Planning), so it would be an odd transition for him to move to general manager.

Perry should have interest around the NBA should he want to return to a front office job. He will have options.

New York heads into the offseason poised to chase a star free agent, should the right one become available. They also have a clean cap sheet without bad contracts weighing them down, which anchored the Knicks in the standings for years.

Perry deserves some of the credit for that.

PBT Podcast: NBA Finals preview, plus Nurse to Philly, and Bucks as opera

By Kurt HelinMay 31, 2023, 11:59 AM EDT

The NBA Finals are here and it’s not the matchup anybody predicted: The Denver Nuggets vs. the Miami Heat.

In this latest PBT Extra podcast, Kurt Helin and Corey Robinson break down that Finals matchup and if the Heat have any chance of slowing down Nikola Jokić. First the pair talk the Heat’s Game 7 win over the Boston Celtics and what this says for the future of the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era in Boston.

After the Finals, in Corey’s Jukebox, Corey compares the Bucks and the recent hiring of Adrian Griffin as the team’s head coach to the famed Mozart opera Don Giovanni — and that’s not a complement to Milwaukee.

Then the duo get into the news around the NBA: What does Bob Myers leaving mean for the Warriors? Is Nick Nurse a good hire in Philadelphia? And what the heck is Eric Lewis thinking?

You can watch the video of some of the podcast above or listen to the entire podcast below, listen and subscribe via iTunes at ApplePodcasts.com/PBTonNBC, subscribe via the fantastic Stitcher app, check us out on Google Play, or anywhere else you get your podcasts.

We want your questions for future podcasts, and your comments, so please feel free to email us at PBTpodcast@gmail.com.

Five things to watch in Heat vs. Nuggets NBA Finals (with betting tips)

By Kurt HelinMay 31, 2023, 11:00 AM EDT

Nobody had this Finals matchup on their bingo card (well, except ESPN’s Israel Gutierrez, who called this matchup before the season).

The Denver Nuggets were the best team in the West all season and kept improving as Jamal Murray got healthier and gained more confidence in his surgically repaired knee. Still, they entered the playoff facing doubts because we hadn’t seen them play at this level in the postseason since the bubble. The Nuggets answered all the questions.

Miami barely made the playoffs at all, having to come from behind in the fourth quarter of the last play-in game to beat the Bulls. But otherworldly play from Jimmy Butler, players like Caleb Martin stepping up, and a relentlessness no team in the East could match, sees them in the Finals after coming one shot short of this mark last season.

Who will hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy?

Here are four things worth watching, plus some betting advice from Vaughn Dalzell of NBC Sports Edge.

1) What is Miami’s defensive plan against Nikola Jokić?

Nobody has a good answer for stopping — or often even slowing — Nikola Jokić.

It’s been the case for three years now, but especially in these playoffs. The Los Angeles Lakers had the best defense in the NBA after the All-Star break and the best defense through the first two rounds of the playoffs, all anchored by an elite defender in Anthony Davis. Jokić averaged a triple-double of 27.8 points, 14.5 rebounds and 11.8 assists a game against them and the Nuggets torched them.

The challenge in guarding Jokić is nobody can do it all that well one-on-one, but the second the help comes — if it comes from where he can see it in particular — he carves a team apart with his elite passing skills.

Miami’s best option to defend Jokić — and what they did in the team’s regular season matchups — is to put Bam Adebayo on him and not send much help. Adebayo is not stopping Jokić one-on-one, but he’s strong and agile enough to make him work for it. Plus, if Jokić is primarily a scorer the Nuggets’ offense is less dangerous — if he scores 35+ points but with five assists the Heat can win; if he has 25 points but 12 assists the Nuggets win handily.

That strategy comes with risks, primarily foul trouble for Adebayo, but also it removes him as a roaming help defender (one of his strengths). The Lakers started with Davis on Jokić but had relative success with others taking the primary job — Rui Hachimura, LeBron James — which allowed Davis to double and help on others. Who on the Heat can take on that assignment? Caleb Martin or Jimmy Butler? Too small. Maybe Cody Zeller or Haywood Highsmith off the bench, but the Heat hurt their offense with those two out there, and neither is exactly an elite defender.

Expect heavy doses of Adebayo, with the Heat strategy being to front the post and make passes into the Joker difficult, and then live with him as a scorer but try not to let him get rolling as a passer. When Jokić is in pick-and-roll actions with Jamal Murray or on the move, expect a team defense to collapse on him.

That all sounds good, but Jokić figures defenses out, which brings us to how the Heat flummoxed the Celtics.

2) Can Denver solve Miami’s Zone?

Miami ran more zone than any team in the NBA this season (in fact, more zone than any team in more than a decade). It works for them because it’s not a conventional zone, they have active defenders out top who push out high, then they have an elite defensive decision-maker and rim protector in the back with Adebayo. More than anything, the Heat play zone with the intensity of man-to-man (something few teams do at any level).

Denver had an impressive 121 offensive rating against zone defenses this season, according to the NBA tracking data at Second Spectrum (for comparison, the Kings had the best offense in the NBA this season at 119.4). The Nuggets have had the best offense against a zone defense in the regular season and playoffs.

One key way to beat a zone is to get the ball to a good passer in the soft middle of the zone, around the free throw line — the Nuggets have Jokić. Denver is also loaded with shooters who can and will knock down shots over the top of the zone (don’t expect a Celtics-like regression in shooting).

Miami will run some zone as a change-up, but it won’t work as a steady diet as it did against Boston.

3) Aaron Gordon on Jimmy Butler

Jimmy Butler is a tough cover because he is too strong for guards to stop from getting to his spots but too quick for most forwards to stay in front of.

Denver will bet Aaron Gordon is quick enough to at least give Butler trouble (he’s done well these playoffs against Kevin Durant and LeBron this postseason). Gordon has the advantage that Butler is not a natural 3-point shooter, so he doesn’t have to play up incredibly high on him, and Gordon is strong enough to handle Butler’s physicality.

Butler is going to get his, but if Gordon can make him work for it, be physical, and start to take his legs out from under him a little, it’s a huge advantage for Denver.

4) Vaughn Dalzell’s betting recommendations

Game 1 Over Trend: Game 1’s are usually strong bets for the Over. All four Game 1’s of the second round went Over the opening total and both of the Conference Finals went Over the total in this postseason, so Game 1’s are on a 6-0 run to the Over. In the NBA Finals, four of the last five Game 1’s went for 227 or more points. Denver averages 122.0 points per game in three Game 1’s during the postseason and Miami averages 120.0 points per game in three Game 1’s. The total opened at 218.5 and is up to 219.5, so the Over looks like a solid bet.

Game 1 Favorites of -5.5 or More: Since the start of the 2013 postseason, NBA Finals favorites of -5.5 or more points have gone 14-3 on the ML and 12-4-1 ATS. Denver opens as a -8.5 point favorite. Home teams are on a 5-0 ML streak and 4-1 ATS in Game 1’s with an average margin of 14.0 points per victory. The Nuggets’ spread has a lot of value historically, despite -8.5 being such a large number.

(Check out more from Dalzell and the team at NBC Sports Edge.)

5) Wild card role players: Martin and Vincent, or is it Michael Porter Jr.

Role players always make a difference in the Finals.

Miami needs that to happen to have a chance. Caleb Martin was almost the Eastern Conference Finals MVP averaging more than 17 points a game and will have to play at that level again. How much Gabe Vincent meant to this team was obvious in Game 5 against the Celtics when he was out. Max Strus and Duncan Robinson also will be critical — and need to defend well enough to stay on the court — if the Heat are going to make a run.

For the Nuggets, Michael Porter Jr. is a walking matchup nightmare at 6’10” and with the ability to get red hot from 3. Teams tend to put a guard on him — and Miami likes to play small — and Porter Jr. just knocks down shots over the top of them. He could win Denver a game this series just with his shot.

Prediction: Nuggets in 5. This is not a knock on an impressive Miami team and run to the Finals, they earned their way here. Denver is just this good. LeBron said this was the best team he has played against since coming to Los Angeles, and that should tell you all you need to know. The Finals will be a coronation for Jokić.