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NBCSports.com’s 50 best players in 5 years: Kawhi Leonard, Ben Simmons, players 10-6

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What is the NBA going to look like in five years? Who will be the game’s best players? The All-Stars, the guys on the cover of 2K24, the guys with signature shoe deals?

As a fun summer project, the NBA team at NBCSports.com put our heads together, pulled out our crystal balls, and tried to project forward who would be the 50 best players in the NBA in five years — in the summer of 2024. We took into account a player’s age, his potential ceiling and how likely he is to reach it, injury history, and more. The team working on this included Dan Feldman, Tom Haberstroh, Rob Dauster, Tommy Beer, Steve Alexander, and Kurt Helin (and thanks to Tess Quinlan and Mia Zanzucchi for the design help).

There were plenty of disagreements (and we don’t expect you to agree with all of our list), but here it is.

Here is the link to here are the links to players 50-4645-41, 40-36, 35-31, 30-26, 25-21, 20-16 and 15-11. These are players 10-6 on our list.

10. Trae Young

How fast and how far Trae Young can develop his game was on display before he ever stepped on an NBA court. In his first NBA Summer League game (in Salt Lake City) he missed his first 11 shots and looked like a guy struggling with the speed and length of the game. By the end of the Las Vegas Summer League, he was one of the best players in it, knocking down threes and finding teammates with spot-on passes.

The same thing happened during his NBA rookie season. He struggled at the start of it — in November he averaged 14 points a game, shot 19.8 percent from three, and struggled with turnovers. After the All-Star break Young averaged 24.7 points per game, shooting 34.8 percent from three, and he was pushing Luka Doncic for Rookie of the Year (Young came in second in that voting).

If he can grow that much in one year, how much can he develop in five years? The Hawks are betting a lot, they are banking that Young and John Collins (No. 24 on this countdown) can be the cornerstones of a contender in Atlanta. Right now they are young stars with All-Star aspirations, and to get the Hawks back to the playoffs. In five years, just making the playoffs should not be near good enough for the ATL.

Young can shoot with range, is a gifted passer, and is working on taking the next steps in his development. He has to get stronger (he reportedly added 10 pounds this summer), has to become a better defender, has to learn to finish better on drives (he needs a floater and to be able to score through or around contact better at the rim, ala Stephen Curry). Most of all, the Hawks need him to be a leader, to be the guy that pulls this franchise back to the postseason, and eventually all the way to heights not seen in decades in Atlanta.

Young has the skills to do all of that, he has the work ethic, and coach Lloyd Pierce is bringing him along at the right pace. If five years, as he is just on the front edge of his prime, we see Young developing into one of the game’s elite point guards. Because we’ve already seen the growth.
—Kurt Helin

9. Ben Simmons

The youngest player to average 15-7-7 and shoot 54% from the field:

Ben Simmons.

The second-youngest player to average 15-7-7 and shoot 54% from the field:

Ben Simmons.

LeBron James, Magic Johnson, and Wilt Chamberlain are the only other players to achieve that stat line at any point in their career.

Simmons, 23, is a special all-around talent. The 6-foot-10 point guard thrives in the open court. He quickly turns his defensive rebounds into fastbreaks the other way, attacks the basket and zips passes all over the court. His defense is stellar due both to his versatility and lockdown ability.

No wonder the 76ers gave him a max contract extension so quickly.

But he has a huge flaw: Jump shots.

Simmons even attempting a 3-pointer is news. Opponents ignore him on the perimeter, and he’s too uncomfortable to shoot. It bogs down Philadelphia’s halfcourt offense, which becomes an especially big problem in the slower-paced playoffs. It’s so difficult to win with a guard limited like that.

Maybe Simmons will improve. He wouldn’t be the first player to significantly upgrade his jumper while in the NBA. But he’s coming from so far behind. There’s even debate about which hand he should shoot with.

While Simmons is one of the safest bets to be a star in five years, it’s difficult to envision him becoming a superstar. There’s a ceiling on guards who can’t shoot from outside.

Yet, with all the other ways he contributes, Simmons should hit his head on that ceiling.
—Dan Feldman

8. Donovan Mitchell

How good has Donovan Mitchell become after just two NBA seasons? It’s all been on display with Team USA this summer, where he has stood out in games and practices, is one of the guys on that roster Gregg Popovich trusts to create shots and get buckets (along with veteran Kemba Walker), and he was named co-captain of the team. At age 22. (The other captains are veterans Walker and Marcus Smart.)

What’s important for Mitchell’s development — and Utah’s future — is that the lessons at Popovich University this summer are not just about things on the court, but about how to be a leader, how to prepare, how to take his game to the next level mentally. Last summer was about injury rehab for Mitchell, this summer has been about growth.

“Last summer was different,” Mitchell said when Team USA stopped in Los Angeles for training camp. “I’m healthy. I’ve been able to travel a little bit, but I’ve been able to put in work. And this is just another step to get better.”

Just how good can Mitchell be in five years? He will be 27, in his prime, and Utah believes he will lead the franchise back to the biggest stages, the ones they have not been on since the Stockton/Malone era. Mitchell this summer is showing he is up to that task, and with the right talent around him — Rudy Gobert will be just 32 in five years (and was No. 32 on this countdown), and in the short term Mitchell will have Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic on his team, too — that is a reachable goal.

Mitchell wants the pressure — he hasn’t shied away from the responsibility of leading Team USA. He is not shy about talking about his goals for the Jazz, which go beyond just making the playoffs again next season. But you can tell he has been at Popovich University this summer, because his words have been about team first, individual second, and doing whatever it takes to win. Bring that mentality back to Utah and Mitchell may lead the Jazz back to that lofty stage they want to return to.
—Kurt Helin

7. Karl-Anthony Towns

While on the Timberwolves, Jimmy Butler revealed the biggest problem with Karl-Anthony Towns.

“Who is the most talented player on our team?” Butler said. “KAT.”

The issue: Towns wasn’t Minnesota’s best player. Butler was.

Towns has all the tools. He’s big, mobile and skilled. The list of 7-footers who’ve shot 3-pointers and scored like him might end at Dirk Nowitzki.

But for all his talent, Towns hasn’t brought the necessary intensity. He has too often failed to assert himself offensively. His defensive effort and execution are consistently lacking. There just isn’t enough force in his game.

Towns started to come around late last season. Maybe that was because of super-max incentives in his five-year contract extension that begins this season. Maybe he legitimately turned a corner for good.

Either way, Towns is just 23. There’s so much time for him to figure this out. He’s already a star with this approach. If he develops a mindset to dominate, he could become the NBA’s very best player.

Towns always says all the right things. In the next five years, we expect him to do even more of them.
—Dan Feldman

6. Kawhi Leonard


This ranking is a big bet on health.

The question is not, “can Kawhi Leonard be a great player in five years at age 33?” He is an elite NBA talent now in his prime, one that just led the Toronto Raptors to an NBA title averaging 30.5 points and 9.1 rebounds a game in the playoffs. He is as good a perimeter defender as there is in the game right now, something that will not change much as he ages. Offensively he can get his own shot, create for others, he shot 37.1 percent from three last season, but what is most impressive is his footwork and ability to get to his spots on the floor. His mechanical, physical style will age well.

If he’s healthy.

That remains the cloud over Leonard. He played just 60 regular season games in Toronto as the Raptors let him set his own pace to stay healthy from the quadricep tendon issue that cost Leonard his final season in — and relationship with — San Antonio. In the playoffs Leonard was out there every game, but in compensating for his quad there was some pain in his other knee — which he played through and still won Finals MVP. But it raises concerns.

With the Clippers, expect more of the same — Leonard is going to be on a maintenance plan and get plenty of nights off during the regular season. (Between him and Paul George it’s caveat emptor if you buy tickets to see the Clippers.) The Clippers have depth, they plan to make the playoffs and when they get there be a healthy force of nature with a duo of the best two-way wings in the game on the roster, plus a deep bench. For the next few years, the Clippers should be title contenders.

Five years from now? The Clippers could still be contenders if Leonard is healthy. Our prognosticators are betting that he will be, that all the maintenance will pay off — and that Leonard will still be one of the game’s dominant forces. But it’s a bet.
—Kurt Helin

Bucks’ Eric Bledsoe out two weeks due to right fibula avulsion fracture

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The Milwaukee Bucks keep right on rolling, they won their 18th straight on Saturday night, cruising past the Cleveland Cavaliers. Now they’re going to have to keep this winning streak going without point guard Eric Bledsoe.

Bledsoe will miss at least two weeks with a right fibula avulsion fracture, the team announced Saturday. The injury happened Friday night in a win against Memphis.

An avulsion fracture is where a strain to ligament pulls a little bit of bone off where the two connect. It sounds worse than it is medically, and while it hurts rest is usually the only treatment needed.

Bledsoe is averaging 15 points and 5.7 assists per game for the Bucks, shooting 34.4 percent from three, playing solid defense, and providing another ball handler and shot creator next to Giannis Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee has been +4.1 points per 100 possessions this season with Bledsoe on the court.

George Hill, who has had a strong season for Milwaukee off the bench, will step into the starting role for now.

The injury comes at a rough time as the Buck hit a tougher part of the schedule this week, facing Dallas (which may be without Luka Doncic) and the Lakers on Thursday.

Hornets’ rookie P.J. Washington out weeks with fractured little finger

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In what has been a disappointing rookie class so far, Charlotte appears to have a steal drafting P.J. Washington at No. 12. The power forward out of Kentucky has started every game for the Hornets this season and is loving the spacing in the NBA game, scoring efficiently in the paint while shooting 40.6 percent from beyond the arc on 3.4 attempts per game, plus is averaging 5.3 rebounds a game.

Now the Hornets are going to be without him, likely for a couple of weeks, due to a fractured fifth finger on his right hand (pinkie). He suffered it in the fourth quarter against Chicago Friday night.

While the Hornets officially only list him as out for Sunday against the Pacers, Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN reports he’s going to be out through Christmas, which would mean at least five games.

Usually this would mean more minutes for Marvin Williams, but he is out with a sore right knee. Most likely, coach James Borego slides an undersized Miles Bridges over to the four — which had been the preseason plan until Washington surprised everyone — but he has a variety of small-ball players who likely will get a little run there.

The 12-16 Hornets are hanging around the playoff picture, just 1.5 games out of the eight seed (Orlando).

Watch Zach LaVine’s driving and-1 game-winner to lift Bulls past Clippers

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CHICAGO (AP) — After blowing several late leads to lose games, the Chicago Bulls were able to flip the script Saturday night.

Zach LaVine scored 31 points and converted a decisive three-point play in the Bulls’ 109-106 victory over the short-handed and weary Los Angeles Clippers.

Chicago trailed by five points with less than two minutes to go. Tied at 106, the Bulls inbounded with 5.4 seconds left. LaVine got the ball near the 3-point line, drove to his right and was fouled by Montrezl Harrell as he scored with 2 seconds left.

Paul George then missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer.

“We made big plays,” LaVine said. “I think that’s what it comes down to, making plays.

“We’ve been playing good, but we just haven’t been able to get that win in the last two minutes, three minutes of the game. Hopefully, we can start stringing some together.”

Lauri Markkanen had 13 points and 17 rebounds, Thaddeus Young scored 17 points, and Denzel Valentine had 16 for the Bulls.

Harrell had 30 points and George had 27 for Los Angeles. The Clippers had won four in a row.

Besides playing for the third time in four days at the end of a six-game trip, the Clippers were without Kawhi Leonard (injury management, left knee soreness), Lou Williams (right calf), Patrick Beverly (concussion) and JaMychal Green (tailbone contusion).

This was the eighth game Leonard has missed. He scored 42 points Friday night at Minnesota.

George was asked if the poor finish was a result of fatigue. “Not necessarily,” he said. “This isn’t new. We just got outplayed tonight.”

Los Angeles led by 15 points midway through the second quarter before Chicago closed the first half with a 19-6 run to pull to 57-55.

The Bulls continued the surge early in the third, scoring 17 straight points for a 75-61 lead. The 75 points were two more than Chicago scored Friday night in an 83-73 home loss to Charlotte.

The Clippers answered with a 12-1 run to trim the deficit to 76-73 and pulled to 81-79 in the final minute of the third on a three-point play by Harrell. LaVine then hit a 3-pointer to give Chicago an 84-79 lead entering the fourth.

In the final three minutes, George hit a pair of free throws to break a tie at 98 and Landry Shamet hit a 3-pointer for a 103-98 Clippers lead with 2 1/2 minutes remaining. With L.A. up by five a minute later, LaVine and Valentine hit 3-pointers on back-to-back possessions — sandwiched around one of two free throws by George — for a tie at 106 with 47.9 seconds left.

Blake Griffin does not play second half due to knee soreness; Pistons hang on to beat Rockets

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This summer, Blake Griffin had arthroscopic surgery to clean up his left knee, it cost him the first 10 games of the season.

Saturday night, Griffin sat the second half against the Rockets because that same knee is sore.

That’s concerning, although there have been no further reports on the severity of the issue. Griffin is averaging 17.4 points and 4.8 rebounds a game — both career lows — and remains the fulcrum of the Pistons offense.

Even without him and Andre Drummond, the Pistons held on to beat the Rockets 115-107, thanks to 12 points from Derrick Rose and 11 from Bruce Brown in the second half.