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NBCSports.com’s 50 best players in 5 years: Joel Embiid, De’Aaron Fox, players 15-11

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What is the NBA going to look like in five years? Who will be the game’s best players? The All-Stars, the guys on the cover of 2K24, the guys with signature shoe deals?

As a fun summer project, the NBA team at NBCSports.com put our heads together, pulled out our crystal balls, and tried to project forward who would be the 50 best players in the NBA in five years — in the summer of 2024. We took into account a player’s age, his potential ceiling and how likely he is to reach it, injury history, and more. The team working on this included Dan Feldman, Tom Haberstroh, Rob Dauster, Tommy Beer, Steve Alexander, and Kurt Helin (and thanks to Tess Quinlan and Mia Zanzucchi for the design help).

There were plenty of disagreements (and we don’t expect you to agree with all of our list), but here it is.

Here is the link to here are the links to players 50-4645-41, 40-36, 35-31, 30-26, 25-21, and 20-16. These are players 15-11 on our list.

15. Jamal Murray

Last season was Jamal Murray’s breakout season. In just his third year in the NBA, he emerged as the second star Denver had been looking for next to Nikola Jokic. In the playoffs he cemented that rise when he stuck the dagger in the Spurs in that series finale, then went toe-to-toe with Damian Lillard for seven games. Casual fans may not have recognized it yet, but Murray was a star — and after the season Denver paid him like one.

Murray averaged 18.2 points a game while shooting 36.7 percent from three last season, plus he added 4.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists per night. He became only the ninth player in NBA history to average 18-4-4 as a 21-year-old (others who did it include Magic, Jordan, LeBron, and Kobe). The key for Denver wasn’t just the scoring threat, although that mattered, but also Murray kept the ball moving and made teams pay for focusing too much defensive attention on Jokic. In the playoffs, Murray upped his game and became the offensive bellwether for the team — when Murray struggled on offense (settling for too many contested mid-range jumpers) the Denver offense stalled out, but when he was confidently draining threes and moving the ball they were hard to stop.

After that season, Denver committed to Murray as their second star and gave him a five-year, $169.7million max contract extension (one that can become a supermax if Murray is named MVP or makes All-NBA, although those are longshots).

That contract was a bet by Denver that Murray can become an All-Star and maybe All-NBA level point guard — something that may be hard to do in the next couple of years because of the ridiculous guard depth in the NBA, but could and maybe should happen down the line. Murray is just 22, is still just tapping into his potential, and in five years will be entering his prime. If he continues to grow and evolve like our prognosticators believe he can, he will be one of the game’s elite guards, and he and Jokic will turn Denver into a consistent title contender.
—Kurt Helin

14. De'Aaron Fox

At USA Basketball training camp this summer, De’Aaron Fox left teammates and coaches shaking their head — they knew he was fast, but up close every day in practice it was still stunning. “His quickness is crazy, and his end-to-end speed is ridiculous,” Kemba Walker said. “He’s fast but he’s under control, which is really hard to do. That’s the most impressive thing about it.”

Fox has taken over the mantle of “fastest player with the ball in the NBA,” but his goals are much bigger than a mythical title. He told NBC Sports he was big on setting goals.

“I’m always looking toward the future, individually and I think everybody has to be a little selfish in that aspect,” Fox told NBC Sports. “To continue to grow, to continue to be the kind of player I can be, to put the league on notice that I’m here, I’m established, and just continue to grow as a man.”

Fox has personal goals — becoming an All-Star, to start — plus the team goal of getting the Kings to the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. To get there will take more than just speed, the craft of Fox’s game needs to catch up with that pace. Fox has to become a more consistent defender, for one. Also, last season saw Fox improve his shooting as he adjusted to the speed of the NBA — he finished 68.7 percent of his shots at the rim and shot 37.1 percent from three. Those are good numbers but not elite — Fox needs to be better to reach the next level. At USA camp, it seemed he was getting there. “He has really been knocking it down. That is what is going to take him to that next level,” Walker said of Fox’s jump shot. New Kings coach Luke Walton needs to give Fox the structure and accountability to do all that.

Fox is just 21 and is at the point in his career where he should be making leaps each season. In five years he will be only 26 and entering his prime. Maybe he will not be the fastest player in the league anymore (although he’ll be close) but as the craft of his game catches up with the speed he can be a force in the NBA. The kind of player Sacramento can build around — and ride into the playoffs. To start.
—Kurt Helin

13. Devin Booker

There are two Devin Booker debates:

How good is he?

How good will he be?

The discussions often occur simultaneously between people who don’t realize they’re answering different questions. Everyone just talks past each other. It’s exhausting.

Maybe by 2024, the conversations will converge.

Booker will be in his prime. His potential and output should nearly match. At long last, we’ll see how Booker – anointed before he deserved it, but possessing enough upside to eventually validate his supporters – will turn out.

Booker is an exceptional scorer for his age. Last season, he made real strides rounding out his offensive game – converting from all areas inside the arc, drawing fouls and distributing. He’s ready to be a go-to scorer. His knockdown 3-point shooting also gives him a chance to play a secondary role on a better team if he ever joins one.

Defense remains a huge shortcoming, though. That fits into larger questions about the habits Booker is developing.

Booker has won just 28% of his games with Phoenix. Nobody has lost so much in his first four seasons then become an All-NBA player since the merger. Not the NBA-ABA merger. The BAA-NBL merger. In 1949.

That’s not all Booker’s fault. The Suns have given him awful supporting casts. Last season, they didn’t even bother getting a point guard.

But last year was also the first time Phoenix performed better with Booker on than off. And Phoenix still played like just a 24-win team with Booker on the floor.

Booker has a lot to learn about the finer points of winning basketball. He’s also extremely talented and young. We’re betting on him figuring it out.
—Dan Feldman

12. Jayson Tatum

When asked during USA Basketball camp if the Celtics’ disappointing last season seemed to drag down people’s perception of him and his game, Jayson Tatum basically just shrugged. Maybe that was the case, but he was not worried about it. He was moving on.

That moving on includes playing for Team USA this summer in China at the World Cup. In a good sign for Celtics’ fans, in USA practices and scrimmages Tatum has looked more like his rookie-season self — smooth, athletic, and more aggressive. Someone with a complete game. He’s playing with a certain freedom again, not looking over his shoulder. That’s not to say things have gone perfectly — he shot 2-of-11 in the recent exhibition against Canada — but his understanding of the game and willingness to attack seem to be back, even as he works to figure out the FIBA/International game.

Boston needs Tatum to return to his trajectory as an elite player next season. Tatum had an impressive rookie season that had him looking like a franchise cornerstone (especially in the playoffs when he averaged 18.5 points a game and was a quality shot creator). However, he plateaued in his second season, likely in part due to the failed chemistry experiment the Celtics became. Tatum got hung up in that, not moving the ball and taking poor shots at points.

The USA experience and time with Gregg Popovich will help Tatum (and Jaylen Brown) move on from last season, there’s a lot of basketball knowledge to soak up. Tatum is just 21 and we expect him to get back on his trajectory to stardom, to grow into an elite NBA player with an all-around game that is hard to match. He is maturing, his game and shot selection are maturing along with him, and by the time we get to five years down the road Tatum will be entering his prime as one of the games elite players.
—Kurt Helin

11. Joel Embiid

It’s been five years since Embiid was drafted No. 3 overall and boy, does it feel more like fifty. So much has changed, not just with the 7-foot Cameroonian phenom, but the world around him. The Process is over and now we try to make sense of what is clearly this generation’s Shaq.

Embiid’s winding road, fairly or unfairly, makes projecting him difficult. No matter how many 30-15-5 nights Embiid puts up, it’s hard to put aside the injury variable that delayed his NBA career two years. With two surgeries on his navicular bone and nagging knee issues on that enormous frame, there’s no doubt that Embiid’s health record keeps him outside of the top-10.

Because if we look at Embiid’s age, talent and production, he should be much closer to the top, if not right at the top. At 25 years old, he’s at the front edge of his prime. He just averaged 27.5 points, 13.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists while making over 100 jumpers outside 16 feet. There’s almost nothing he can’t do on the basketball court.

He’s getting smarter, too. Last season, he became the first 7-footer in NBA history to take at least 10 free throws a game and shoot over 80 percent at the line. Using the charity stripe to your advantage is usually the domain of highly-technical shooting guards like James Harden, Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan. Embiid is as surgical as they come and not in the way that defined his first two years in the league. If he can keep the injury woes away, we’ll probably look back wondering how we didn’t put him No. 1.
—Tom Haberstroh

Charlotte GM Mitch Kupchak: Hornets won’t build through free agency

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CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) — Mitch Kupchak doesn’t see the Charlotte Hornets being major players in free agency as they attempt to build a winning franchise in the post-Kemba Walker era – at least not right away.

Instead, the second-year general manager said Monday he anticipates the Hornets will construct the roster through draft picks and “savvy trades” during the season, while compiling as many assets as possible.

“We will not be an active player” in free agency, Kupchak said. “I think we can build a culture here and get enough assets and have a promising enough future and really attract the kind of free agent you want to spend that kind of money on – but I don’t think you can do it right now.”

So in the meantime, the Hornets will give young players like Dwayne Bacon, Miles Bridges, Malik Monk, Devonte Graham and even rookie PJ Washington extensive playing time this season as part of their No. 1 overall goal of player development after going 39-43 last season and losing Walker, a three-time All-Star, to the Boston Celtics.

Kupchak said that will take patience, but he and owner Michael Jordan and coach James Borrego are on the same page.

Kupchak said he won’t measure this season’s success in terms of wins and losses, but rather on how the team’s younger players continue to progress.

“Win or lose, I want our players to play with energy and our coaches to coach with energy,” Kupchak said. “As the season goes on I want to see improvement. That’s how I’m looking at the season.”

Kupchak said that concept may not be easy for Borrego.

“I am hoping he is better than he was last season,” Kupchak said with a grin. “At the beginning of the season last year he took each loss really, really hard. Hopefully this year he will be able to handle the losses a little bit better.”

Borrego has yet to name a starting lineup for Wednesday night’s home opener against the Chicago Bulls. Point guard Terry Rozier and center Cody Zeller are locks to start, but the combination of the other three remains a mystery.

That lineup could include Washington, who has impressed Kupchak with his 3-point shooting in the preseason since being selected No. 12 overall earlier this year.

Originally, the Hornets planned for the former Kentucky forward to split time between Charlotte’s G League team and the NBA to gain maximum playing experience. But Kupchak said Washington has been the team’s most impressive young player during the preseason and will likely remain in Charlotte, provided he’s seeing 15-plus minutes per game.

“He does have to play, and, based on his production of late, he will play,” Kupchak said. “… He has worked on his game and has turned himself into not only a big man that can be productive down in the paint, but in our game today he can also make 3s.”

Win or lose, Kupchak expects the Hornets to use a “fast-paced style of play.”

 

Doc Rivers says Los Angeles Lakers counting Minnesota titles “actually bugs me a little bit”

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Los Angeles is a Lakers town.

The Dodgers can get close to energizing the city the same way, although Dodger fans are a little cautious after the past few playoffs. The Rams and Chargers are in a league that ignored Los Angeles for a couple of decades, lost a couple of generations of fans, and it’s going to take time to win them back. The Kings’ following is passionate but not massive (same with the two MLS teams in town).

The Lakers are the team that fathers take their sons to see, like their fathers did before them. The Lakers have won 16 NBA titles…

About that, it’s really 11 in Los Angeles. The first five carried over from Minnesota (where the name Lakers makes more sense). That kind of bothers’ Clippers coach Doc Rivers, something he told Marc Spears of The Undefeated in a story previewing the Clippers’ season.

“It is a Lakers town. I’m good with that. I have no issues with that,” Clippers head coach Doc Rivers told The Undefeated from his Staples Center office recently. “They have how many titles that they’ve won here? You know, they claim them all, but they only won a certain amount here. I will say that. That actually bugs me a little bit. … Having said that, that’s generations of loyalty.

“I look at us as, we’re creating our own movement. … We’re not trying to take away shine from the other. We’ve got our own thing going. I never thought we could get our own thing going. That was what I was so frustrated with being here. And now we got our own thing going.”

Carrying titles over is common… and controversial. Should the Dodgers be able to count Brooklyn titles? It feels wrong to think Oklahoma City could count Seattle’s titles. Should Sacramento be able to count the 1951 Rochester title? Personally, the Lakers carrying Minnesota’s doesn’t seem a big issue, but you know Rivers is going to take a shot at the Lakers when he can.

That hallway rivalry at Staples Center is building.

Few things seem to irritate Lakers fans like the Clippers putting posters of players over the Lakers’ title banners at Staples Center for Clippers home games. Lakers fans think of Staples as their building — and it might not exist but for the draw of the Shaq/Kobe Lakers. However, Staples is owned by AEG (whose primary owner is Philip Anschutz, who owns the NHL’s Kings), not the Lakers. It’s a hockey building.

Doc is right about one thing: The Clippers have their own thing going.

The Clippers, on paper, are the better Los Angeles team and better built for the playoffs with versatile wings such as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Clippers have more trusted depth with Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. Tuesday night’s Clippers’ home opener will go how it goes — LeBron James and Anthony Davis will go for the Lakers, Paul George is out for weeks still for the Clippers — but a playoff battle between these teams this season could be epic.

And decide who gets to hang the next banner in Staples Center.

Utah Jazz extend Joe Ingles for one additional season at $14 million

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Joe Ingles is part of the Utah Jazz core. He’s a key forward in their system who serves mostly as a stretch four — more than 60 percent of his shot attempts last season were from three and he hit 39.1 percent of them — but also can put the ball on the floor and is a smart passer. While the past couple of seasons Donovan Michell has been Utah’s primary shot creator, when teams focused on him and bottled up the offense it fell to Ingles to be the man.

The Jazz like him enough to lock him up for one more season. He had two years, $22.7 million left on his contract but now the Jazz have added a third year, the team has announced. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports that additional year will be for $14 million.

“As one of our longest tenured players, Joe’s shooting acumen, playmaking ability and unselfishness have been integral to our team’s identity,” Jazz General Manager Justin Zanik said in a statement. “We are excited to keep a player like Joe, as his character and leadership are critical for the foundation of our team.”

Ingles is now locked up until the summer of 2022. The only other key player whose contract currently extends out that far is Bojan Bogdanovic, who Utah signed this summer for four years, $73 million.

The Jazz are going to have some big money to pay out in the coming years, and with that some ownership decisions about the luxury tax. Donovan Mitchell is eligible for his rookie contract extension next summer and that certainly will be a max deal. Rudy Gobert has two years remaining on his contract ($51.5 million total), then will have to be extended, again likely for the max. Mike Conley has a $34.5 million player option for the 2020-21 season (he likely picks that up), after that the Jazz need to decide what to do at the point guard spot.

A lot of those decisions will come down to how the Jazz perform the next two seasons. Some pundits (*raises hand*) see them as a top-three team in the West that, if they come together, can challenge the Clippers and Lakers for a trip to the Finals. If that happens, how ownership wants to proceed will be different from if the team falls short of those goals.

Cavaliers reportedly snap up Alfonzo McKinnie off waivers

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Going into training camp, Alfonzo McKinnie was expected to be the starting small forward for the Warriors this season.

However, injuries along the front line — Willie Cauley-Stein is out for weeks still, plus Kevon Looney and rookie Alen Smailagic are banged up — and some strong play from Marquise Chriss meant he was going to make the Warriors roster. With the team being hard capped after signing D'Angelo Russell this summer, the Warriors had no choice but to cut McKinnie.

The Cleveland Cavaliers have snapped him up off waivers.

This is a good move by the Cavaliers, a low-risk pickup — McKinnie is on a minimum contract — that could get them a 3&D wing on a young team. He played in 72 games for the Warriors last regular season plus got playoff minutes, and shot 35.6 percent from three. He’s long and athletic and a player both the Raptors and Warriors liked but had to move on from because of other roster situations.

For the Warriors, they will have Glenn Robinson III starting at the three with Alec Burks behind him. They could have really used McKennie.