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2019 NBA draft lottery featured historically massive shakeup

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The Knicks winning the lottery was treated as an inevitability.

New York had the lottery’s No. 1 seed. No team had better odds than the Knicks. New York fans salivated over Zion Williamson. The Knicks sent Patrick Ewing, their last No. 1 pick and player they got by winning the initial lottery, to represent them on stage. Nearly every mock draft until last night slotted the Knicks No. 1. Reports emerged about what New York would do with the No. 1 pick (try to trade it for Anthony Davis).

Some of this was overstated. The Knicks, Cavaliers and Suns had an equal chance at the top pick. New York’s higher lottery seed would be relevant only if not getting drawn into the top four. Yet, Cleveland and Phoenix often got left from the discussion.

Some of this was innocent. There’s no other prospect in this draft whose hype nears Williamson’s, and other fan bases got preemptively excited about the idea of adding him. Using lottery seeds to order a mock draft before the lottery is just practical. The Knicks should be planning for every eventuality.

But it all created a feedback loop: Talk about the No. 1 pick, talk about the Knicks. Talk about the Knicks, talk about the No. 1 pick. And on and on, the noise amplified by the world’s biggest media market.

Lost in the hoopla: 86%.

Those were the quite-high odds New York wouldn’t get the No. 1 pick.

Of course, New York didn’t get the top pick – an expected outcome amid one of the most chaotic (and most important) lotteries of all-time.

The NBA reformed the lottery this year – flattening the odds and drawing the top four, rather than top three, picks. That didn’t ensure a wild outcome, but it increased the potential. And we got pandemonium.

The Pelicans (No. 7 seed) drew the No. 1 pick. The Grizzlies (No. 6 seed) landed the No. 2 pick. The Lakers (No. 11 seed) jumped even further, to the No. 4 pick.

Those leaps are among the biggest in lottery history.

No lottery had ever included even two teams moving five slots between their lottery seed and draft pick. The 2019 lottery had three teams move six slots.

Here are the biggest movements between lottery seed and draft pick of all-time:

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With the mediocre Pelicans, Grizzlies and Lakers moving up, some awful teams had to get displaced.

And there were some truly awful teams this year.

New York (17-65), Cleveland (19-63) and Phoenix (19-63) stunk then leaned into tanking. Though lottery reform gave the three worst teams equal lottery odds, the fourth-worst Bulls (22-60) didn’t allow much cushion to win meaningless games. Every additional ping-pong-ball combination improved the odds of getting Williamson. Plus, standings within the bottom three still determined draft order if not selected in the lottery.

Before this year, the average draft position for a sub-20-win team in the lottery era was slightly better than No. 3. The Knicks, Cavaliers and Suns will pick Nos. 3, 5, 6.

Phoenix’s No. 6 pick is the worst in the lottery era for a team that won fewer than 20 games. Cleveland’s No. 5 pick is tied for second-worst. And in this weak-looking draft, it’s not as if New York should rejoice about getting No. 3.

Here’s every team to win fewer than 20 games in the lottery era (or the equivalent in a lockout-shortened season), sorted by ensuing draft pick:

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All told, 11 of the 14 teams in last night’s lottery got a pick that didn’t match their seed.

The Pelicans (7 to 1), Grizzlies (8 to 2) and Lakers (11 to 4) moved up.

The Knicks (1 to 3), Cavaliers (2 to 5), Suns (3 to 6), Bulls (4 to 7), Hawks (5 to 8), Wizards (6 to 9), Hawks via Mavericks (9 to 10) and Timberwolves (10 to 11) moved down.

Only the Hornets (12), Heat (13) and Celtics via Kings (14) remained in place.

Originally, the lottery determined where every non-playoff team picked and gave each team equal odds of each pick. That system sometimes produced less movement than last night’s lottery.

Yesterday, the 14 lottery teams averaged moving 2.7 slots between their lottery seed and draft pick – the third-biggest shakeup ever.

Here’s every lottery, sorted by average movement between lottery seed and draft pick for each lottery team:

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In 1993, the Magic – despite holding the lowest odds – jumped to the No. 1 pick. That produced plenty of backlash, especially considering Orlando also won the previous lottery.

In 1986, one of two years with the initial lottery system, the seven lottery teams, picked, in order of seed: 5, 4, 7, 3, 2, 1, 6. And the Cavaliers got a bonus pick to be slotted after Dallas (which owned Cleveland’s own pick) as compensation for Ted Stepien’s numerous missteps on condition of him selling the team. It was chaos.

Both situations prompted change. The NBA instituted the Stepien rule, limiting teams’ ability to trade future draft picks. The league didn’t want a team to be so hopeless, it’d need dispensation. The NBA also changed lottery rules for 1994, improving odds for the worst teams and therefore trimming odds for teams – like the Magic the year prior – that barely missed the playoffs.

Eventually, that led to an outbreak of tanking. Nobody pushed the limits further than former 76ers general manger Sam Hinkie and his Process. He, more than anyone, prompted this lottery reform.

Last night’s lottery won’t change everything.

But it worked exactly as intended.

Magic Johnson: Former Pelicans GM Dell Demps leaked Anthony Davis trade-talk details

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The Pelicans reportedly blame the Lakers for details of Anthony Davis trade negotiations leaking.

Former Lakers president Magic Johnson blames former Pelicans general manager Dell Demps.

Johnson on ESPN:

I told Dell Demps, “Let’s just do it in private. What we offer, let’s keep it between us.” Well, Dell didn’t do that. So, that’s how it got out.”

The Lakers have intriguing assets – Lonzo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, the No. 4 pick, all their own future first-round picks. Los Angeles will likely try again to land Davis.

Johnson and Demps are out. So, maybe these sour grapes don’t matter.

But enough people remain in each organization – including Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka, whom Johnson blasted today – from those winter trade talks. Whether or not there’s an edict in New Orleans forbidding new lead executive David Griffin from sending Davis to the Lakers, there’s clearly mistrust between these franchises. That makes it harder to reach a deal.

Lakers haven for failed coaches

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In the last two decades, 16 teams changed coaches, gave a majority of their minutes to returning players the following season and won 15 more games than the year prior (or equivalent in lockout-shortened season).

Only one of those 16 deposed coaches has gotten another non-interim NBA head-coaching job.

The Lakers will introduce him today.

His lead assistant is also one of the 16. Another member of the 16 was instrumental in hiring them.

Frank Vogel, Jason Kidd and Kurt Rambis make quite a trio.

The Lakers’ new head coach, Vogel is only one year removed from guiding Orlando to a 25-57 record. The Magic’s roster seemed to be the main culprit when they fired him, but Steve Clifford led a similar roster to a 42-40 record. That certainly didn’t reflect well on Vogel.

Ditto how the Bucks responded to Kidd’s departure. After going 44-38 and losing in the first round last season, Milwaukee ascended to 60-22 and is leading the Eastern Conference finals this season under Mike Budenholzer. Yet, Kidd – who’ll assist Vogel – was clearly a priority for the Lakers.

In 2011, the Timberwolves finished 17-65 and fired Rambis. Minnesota went 26-40 the following year under Rick Adelman. After bouncing around other jobs, Rambis is now playing a leading role in Rob Pelinka’s front office.

Every team changes between seasons. Players come and go. Those who stay get older and develop. Injuries happen inconsistently. The NBA hardly runs controlled experiments on coaches.

But these situations don’t instill confidence in Vogel, Kidd and Rambis. That they’re all working together now is remarkable.

Vogel has the most prominent role. Fortunately for the Lakers, he’s also the one least likely to be defined by his fixed-after-he-left tenure. Before Orlando, Vogel had plenty of success with the Pacers.

Kidd also did some positive things with the Bucks. Rambis…

People can learn from their mistakes. Second chances are sometimes warranted.

But the Lakers have LeBron James, whose prime years are dwindling. They’re a prestigious franchise in a premier market. High-end coaches and executives are particularly important and attainable.

The Lakers have given power to this group – maybe for good reason, maybe not.

I hope they explain why today, though there are several other issues they’ll have to address, too.

Magic Johnson on Lakers GM Rob Pelinka: ‘If you’re going to talk betrayal, it’s only with Rob’

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Around the time Magic Johnson stunningly resigned as Lakers president, rumors swirled about his poor work ethic. The source of that rumor was suspected to be Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka. Johnson acknowledged an internal problem the night he quit, citing “backstabbing” and “whispering.”

“If you’re going to talk betrayal,” Johnson said in an incredibly candid interview on ESPN today, “it’s only with Rob.”

Johnson admitted to spending only limited time on the Lakers. But he said Lakers owner Jeanie Buss approved that plan when hiring him.

“I told her, I said listen, ‘I can’t give up all my businesses. I make more money doing that than becoming president of the Lakers. So, you know that I’m going to be in and out. Is that OK with you?’ She said yes,” Johnson said. “I said, ‘Do I have the power to make decisions?’ Because that was important for me to take the job, as well. She said you have the power to make the decisions. So, I said, ‘OK, let’s go do it.’ She said, ‘I’m going to put you with Rob Pelinka,’ because I didn’t know Rob.

“And then I started hearing, ‘Magic, you’re not working hard enough. Magic’s not in the office.’ So, people around the Lakers office was telling me Rob was saying things – Rob Pelinka – and I didn’t like those things being said behind my back, that I wasn’t in the office and so on and on. So, I started getting calls from my friends outside of basketball, saying those things now were said to them outside of basketball. Now, not just in the Lakers office anymore. Now, it’s in the media and so on.

“Just Rob. Other people didn’t bother me. It’s really funny, as I sit here. I don’t worry about those type of things. I’m not a guy who is like, oh man, he said this about and I worry about it. What happened was I wasn’t having fun coming to work anymore – especially when I’ve got to work beside you knowing you want my position. And I’m OK with that. Because this is what happened, Stephen A. I told him in year two, I’m only going to be here three years. So, my job is, Rob, to get you ready for this position. So, I was going to help elevate him to the president’s position. And so, when all this was coming back to me and guys calling me saying, ‘You better watch out for him’ – and then what crazy was, when I took the job, you know how many agents called me and said, ‘You’ve got to watch out for him.’ And I said, ‘Eh, I’ve got to give the guy a fair chance.’ I can’t listen to people. But he was a hard-worker, smart guy. But now you have that position, so I’m good with that.”

Though he said the backstabbing came from only Pelinka, Johnson clearly had friction with other members of the organization.

Johnson described mentoring Joey Buss (Vice President, Research & Development) and Jesse Buss (Assistant GM / Director, Scouting). Johnson made clear he had no problem doing so and liked those Buss brothers. But he also indicated he saw ambition that created complications.

“They felt they should have been in powerful positions, whether that’s the general manager or the president,” Johnson said.

And there’s Tim Harris President (Business Operations, Chief Operating Officer).

“The straw that broke the camel’s back was, I wanted to fire Luke Walton,” Johnson said. “And we had, Max, three meetings. I showed her the things he did well and the things he didn’t do well. And I said, ‘Listen, we’ve got to get a better coach. I like him. He’s great. Former Laker, the whole thing.’ The first day, ‘Well, let’s think about it.’ Second day, ‘OK, you can fire him.’ Then, the next day, ‘No, we should try to work it out.’ So, when we went back and forth like that and then she brought Tim Harris into the meeting with some of the guys. And Tim wanted me to – he wanted to keep him, because he was friends with Luke. Luke’s a great guy. He’s a great guy. So, when I looked up and said wait a minute, I only really answer to Jeannie Buss. Now, I’ve got Tim involved. And I said it’s time for me to go.”

Walton, since hired by the Kings, has been accused of sexual assault.

There’s a ton to digest here, but I can’t escape two ironies:

Johnson – who had never worked in a front office before, didn’t work hard enough running the Lakers, felt his power wasn’t concentrated enough, didn’t build a winner – said people should ascend in the organization only  “once you show that you can drive excellence.”

Johnson – who described the Lakers as a mess, called their general manager a backstabber, said their owner is failing to define clear roles – plans to help them recruit free agents this summer.

Report: Tim Connelly rejects Wizards, staying with Nuggets

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Nuggets president Tim Connelly could have led the Wizards’ front office, worked close to his native Baltimore and presumably gotten a raise from his reported $2 million salary.

Instead, he’s stay in Denver.

Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN:

This is a huge win for Denver and even bigger setback for Washington.

Connelly has put the Nuggets into a great position. They’re young and good in a combination rarely seen in NBA history. Connelly drafted Nikola Jokic in the second round then built around him a short time later. This season, Denver won 54 games and reached Game 7 of the second round with 24-year-old Jokic flanked by Jamal Murray, Gary Harris and Paul Millsap.

More decisions always lie ahead – notably Millsap’s $30 million team option for next season. But the Nuggets’ core is already in place and mostly under team control.

The Wizards need far more work. John Wall‘s contract is arguably the NBA’s worst. Ian Mahinmi and Dwight Howard are also roadblocks. Several key players will be free agents this summer. If he makes an All-NBA team this season, Bradley Beal be eligible for a super-max extension – a tricky decision for the club.

It would have been great for Washington to entrust Connelly with all that. He has proven excellent at his job.

Troy Weaver, Danny Ferry or Tommy Sheppard might do well for the Wizards. But they’re candidates who offer far less certainty.