Adjusting for playoff rotations shows Trail Blazers’ and Celtics’ vulnerabilities

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Most team statistics used for playoff predictions – from won-loss record to more-complicated metrics – rely on full-season data.

But by the time the playoffs begin, teams often look radically different than they did at various points of the regular season.

The Clippers traded Tobias Harris. Trail Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic suffered a season-ending injury. The Nuggets will likely drop Trey Lyles from their postseason rotation.

Yet, those players, and many others like them, heavily influenced their teams’ regular-season results.

So, I measured team performance when the entire five-man lineup is comprised of players projected to be in the first-round rotation. It’s a glimpse into the effectiveness and chemistry of the players who’ll actually be on the court in these series.

It’s only one data point among many that should be considered. I don’t know precisely how each team will set its rotation, so I must predict. The playing-time distribution among players in the rotation can change into the postseason. Opponent quality varies. Some sample sizes are larger than others.

Still, I find it a useful indicator.

Here’s each team’s offensive, defensive and net ratings from Basketball-Reference adjusted from the regular season to counting only lineups that include five players projected to be in the first-round playoff rotation:

Western Conference

1. Golden State Warriors

Offensive rating: 115.9 to 121.9

Defensive rating: 109.5 to 106.2

Net rating: +6.4 to +15.7

4. Houston Rockets

Offensive rating: 115.5 to 117.3

Defensive rating: 110.7 to 107.2

Net rating: +4.8 to +10.1

5. Utah Jazz

Offensive rating: 110.9 to 113.9

Defensive rating: 105.7 to 104.5

Net rating: +5.2 to +9.3

2. Denver Nuggets

Offensive rating: 113.0 to 116.1

Defensive rating: 108.9 to 108.1

Net rating: +4.1 to +8.1

6. Oklahoma City Thunder

Offensive rating: 110.3 to 116.0

Defensive rating: 107.0 to 108.2

Net rating: +3.3 to +7.8

7. San Antonio Spurs

Offensive rating: 112.9 to 116.9

Defensive rating: 111.2 to 110.3

Net rating: +1.7 to +6.6

3. Portland Trail Blazers

Offensive rating: 114.7 to 114.0

Defensive rating: 110.5 to 109.1

Net rating: +4.2 to +5.0

8. L.A. Clippers

Offensive rating: 112.4 to 115.3

Defensive rating: 111.5 to 111.9

Net rating: +0.9 to +3.4

Eastern Conference 

2. Toronto Raptors

Offensive rating: 113.1 to 122.4

Defensive rating: 107.1 to 106.5

Net rating: +6.0 to +15.9

1. Milwaukee Bucks

Offensive rating: 113.8 to 115.7

Defensive rating: 105.2 to 107.1

Net rating: +8.6 to +8.6

3. Philadelphia 76ers

Offensive rating: 112.6 to 115.8

Defensive rating: 110.0 to 107.3

Net rating: +2.6 to +8.5

7. Orlando Magic

Offensive rating: 108.9 to 114.0

Defensive rating: 108.1 to 107.9

Net rating: +0.8 to +6.1

8. Detroit Pistons

Offensive rating: 109.0 to 114.7

Defensive rating: 109.2 to 110.2

Net rating: -0.2 to +4.4

5. Indiana Pacers

Offensive rating: 109.9 to 110.3

Defensive rating: 106.5 to 107.4

Net rating: +3.4 to +2.9

6. Brooklyn Nets

Offensive rating: 109.7 to 112.2

Defensive rating: 109.7 to 111.7

Net rating: 0.0 to +0.5

4. Boston Celtics

Offensive rating: 112.2 to 110.6

Defensive rating: 107.8 to 110.4

Net rating: +4.4 to +0.3

Observations:

  • The Trail Blazers really miss Nurkic. Portland’s adjusted net rating would have been about twice as good with him. As is, Portland falls behind its first-round opponent – Oklahoma City – after the adjustment.
  • Marcus Smart‘s absence affects the Celtics nearly as much. He has been so good as a glue player with higher-usage teammates. Put more of those ball-dominant players on the court together, and Boston’s chemistry could get bumpy.
  • The Pacers also their net rating drop with the adjustment, though. They rank ahead of the Celtics but might not be good enough to pull an upset without homecourt advantage.
  • The Raptors and Warriors improve the most with the adjustment. I trust that more with Golden State, which I project with a deeper rotation that can be trimmed if necessary. Toronto might need to go deeper into its bench with OG Anunoby sidelined.
  • The teams with the second- and third-best adjusted net ratings in the West, Houston and Utah, play each other in the first round. The winner advances to face the team with the conference’s best adjusted net rating, Golden State. That’s a brutal section of the bracket.
  • Malcolm Brogdon, Nikola Mirotic and Tony Snell are banged up for Milwaukee. As they get healthier, expect the Bucks to vault toward the top of the league.
  • Joel Embiid is included in the 76ers’ rotation. If he can’t play, Philadelphia’s adjusted offensive/defensive/net ratings drop to 110.2/109.3/+0.9. Yikes.
  • The Spurs and Magic could be punchier than expected.

Watch Jamal Murray, Kawhi Leonard score first buckets in returns

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It’s only preseason. But if you’ve sat out an entire season with an ACL injury,  just getting on the court feels like a milestone.

And getting your first bucket back feels memorable.

That happened for the Nuggets Jamal Murray and the Clippers Kawhi Leonard on Monday night.

For Murray, the bucket came on a corner 3 in transition.

Murray also showed flashes he’s getting his handle and wiggle back, something that made him a great fit with Nikola Jokic.

Leonard wasted no time, scoring the Clippers’ first bucket by lulling his defender to sleep and then shooting the pull-up 3.

I feel we’re going to see a lot more of that this season.

The NBA is just better with these two back on the court.

 

Cavaliers Evan Mobley out 1-2 weeks with sprained ankle

2022-23 Cleveland Cavaliers Media Day
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The Cleveland Cavaliers might have the best frontcourt in the East this season with All-Star Jarrett Allen and the emerging star Evan Mobley, but it may be a few weeks before we see them together.

Mobley is out 1-2 weeks with a sprained right ankle, the Cavaliers announced a couple of days before their preseason opener. Mobley stepped on a teammate’s foot and rolled his ankle during practice, according to Chris Fedor of Cleveland.com.

Mobley, who finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting, averaged 15 points and 8.3 rebounds a game in his first campaign, but his more significant impact was on the defensive end. Mobley earned All-Defensive Team consideration as a rookie — an incredibly rare feat — and with Allen formed an impressive backstop for teams trying to drive the paint.

Reports out of Cavaliers training camp rave about the improvements made in Mobley’s offensive game, but we’ll have to wait a few weeks to see that for ourselves now. Mobley, with a more consistent face-up game and jumper, has the potential to develop into a top 15, maybe even top-10 player in the league. The Cavaliers are banking on the young core of Mobley, Allen, Darius Garland and the just acquired Donovan Mitchell to be able to take the team far in the next few years, with Mobley’s improvement key to just how far they can go.

It sounds like Mobley will be good to go for the start of the season.

Karl-Anthony Towns just cleared to walk Saturday following non-COVID illness

Karl-Anthony Towns Offseaon Workout
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Karl-Anthony Towns has not been in camp with the Timberwolves, sidelined by a non-COVID illness. Beyond that, there were not a lot of details other than his girlfriend Jordyn Woods saying on social media that she had taken him to the hospital.

Towns spoke to the media for the first time this season on Monday and said he was just cleared to walk again on Saturday, but did not get into detail about whatever illness he is dealing with.

First, it is Towns’ right if and when to disclose what he went through. This is not an on-court injury leading to a loss of playing time, and it is his call to talk about.

Towns has been sidelined before by illness, including COVID. After losing his mother and other family members to the disease, he also had a long battle with it. Fortunately, this is not that virus, but whatever it was it sidelined him for a couple of weeks.

That missed training camp is a setback as the Timberwolves try to get used to a two-big lineup with KAT and Rudy Gobert, plus some other new faces. Still, Towns and Minnesota should be good to go by the start of the season, a team thinking playoffs and much more after spending big this offseason.

Lakers reportedly ‘seriously considered’ Westbrook trade for Hield, Turner

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“If you make that trade, it has to be the right one, you have one shot to do it. So we’re being very thoughtful around the decisions on when and how to use draft capital in a way that will improve our roster.”

That was Lakers GM Rob Pelinka on media day talking about the possibility of the Lakers trading the only two first-round picks they control this decade — 2027 and 2029 — to upgrade this roster around LeBron. Pelinka was clear the Lakers were committed to building a winner around LeBron, “We have one of the great players in LeBron James to ever play the game, and he committed to us on a long-term contract, a three-year contract… He committed to our organization. That’s gotta be a bilateral commitment, and it’s there.”

But should that include a Russell Westbrook trade to Indiana for Buddy Hield and Myles Turner? Shams Charania of The Athletic updated and added to the extensive previous reporting on this trade, saying the Lakers kept the door open right up to the start of training camp but didn’t pull the trigger.

Vice president of basketball operations and general manager Rob Pelinka, owner Jeanie Buss and senior basketball adviser Kurt Rambis seriously considered sending Westbrook and unprotected first-round picks in 2027 and 2029 to the Pacers for center Myles Turner and guard Buddy Hield, sources said. They held a series of meetings in the days leading up to camp to analyze the possible Pacers deal from every angle, with the views of Ham and Lakers executives Joey and Jesse Buss also being strongly considered in the process. The organization even delayed the midweek news conference for Pelinka and Ham as the debate continued…

If they were going to gamble on a make-or-break move of this magnitude, the thinking went, then everyone had to have confidence in the same vision. But when that wasn’t the case, sources say, the choice was made by Pelinka to remain patient and see, yet again, if Westbrook might find a way to make this imperfect fit with the Lakers work.

Hield and Turner would absolutely improve the Lakers. Turner can play the five, is an elite shot blocker who could provide a strong defensive back line next to Anthony Davis, and is a respectable 3-point shooter who can space the floor. He’s a natural fit. Hield brings shooting that the Lakers have coveted for years and need more of now.

That trade would have moved the Lakers up the ladder to a solid playoff team in the West. Would that trade make the Lakers contenders? Probably not. It still would have come back to the bubble version of Davis and LeBron being ready for the final 16-game sprint to have a puncher’s chance (that may be the case regardless of other moves). Also, it would have messed with future free agency plans in Los Angeles — the Lakers can have around $30 million in cap space next summer to chase Kyrie Irving (although Shams reports that’s not in their plans) or other name players, Hield is owed $19.3 million next season and Turner will be a free agent the Lakers would need to re-sign. This deal would end the dream of a free agent taking a little less than the max to come to the Lakers (a dream not likely to come to reality anyway).

As Pelinka said, the Lakers have one shot with trading their two picks to upgrade the roster — they have to hit a home run, this can’t be a solid single. The Lakers were not convinced Hield and Turner could be that home run tandem.

So Los Angeles will go into the season with a starting five of Westbrook, Kendrick Nunn, LeBron, Davis, and Damian Jones, with a bench of Patrick Beverley, Thomas Bryant, Austin Reaves, and Dennis Schroder. The Lakers will see if it fits, how far it looks like this group can take them under new coach Darvin Ham, and watch the market to see what other stars could become available.

The Lakers aren’t done dealing, but it looks like a deal with Indiana is now in the rearview mirror.