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Playoff picture still not in focus with two days left in season, here’s what to look for

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The Indiana Pacers will face the Boston Celtics.

That’s it. That’s all we know. Well, that and LeBron James will not be participating.

When the NBA playoffs start this weekend, Indiana will travel to Boston for the start of that series.

We’re 80 or 81 games into the NBA season (depending on the team) and literally no other matchup is set in the NBA’s playoff picture. How complex is it? Look at the spreadsheet the league sent out to help media members and others understand the possibilities.

This is what the league office wants, it’s drama. It has fan bases involved all the way through the season. It’s something the league can sell as parity, even if we all know there’s not really parity in the NBA in the sense of how fans would describe it.

To be fair, we know a couple of other things heading into the final two days of the season. In the East, we know the top five seeds: Milwaukee, Toronto, Philadelphia, Boston, Indiana. In the West, we know the Golden State Warriors are the top seed, and we know which are the eight playoff teams. However, there is no seeding set beyond the top one.

Here’s what to watch.

There is one playoff spot left open, the eight seed in the East. The Detroit Pistons sit in that spot, one game ahead of both Miami and Charlotte, with two games to play. The Pistons control their own destiny — beat Memphis and New York over the next two days and Detroit goes to the playoffs (it’s even possible they pass Orlando for the seven seed, if the Magic help out with a loss Wednesday). However, if Detroit loses one of those games — and Memphis is trying to win in an effort to make it more likely they convey their first-round pick to Boston this year — then the doors open for Charlotte and Miami. And it gets complicated. The NBA’s spreadsheet shows 64 possible remaining scenarios that could play out between the Nets, Magic, Pistons, Hornets, and Heat over the final two days of the regular season (both who gets in and the order of seeding).

The West is even more complicated.

At the bottom of the conference, just half a game separates the Thunder, Spurs, and Clippers, who will finish as the 6-7-8 seeds. Probably. They can finish in literally any order, and there are even a couple of scenarios where the Thunder leap past the Jazz into the five seed and Utah gets to be sixth.

Denver is the No. 2 seed, but is just half a game up on the Rockets who sit third, with Portland just one more game back at No. 4. Denver rested key players on Sunday in a loss to Portland that raised a lot of questions about who the Nuggets were trying to line themselves up to face (even if that loss opened the door for the Rockets a little to get the two seed). Was Denver trying to pump up Portland and help the handful of scenarios where the Trail Blazers jump the Rockets to get the three seed, in essence giving the Nuggets a potentially easier second round matchup (and putting the Rockets on the Warriors’ side of the bracket)?

The Jazz seem locked into the five seed, but there are scenarios where Utah wins its final two games, Houston and Portland stumble, and the Jazz jump up to the four seed and host a playoff series.

Just look at all the scenarios.

It’s more complicated than how Avril Lavigne ever had a hit with that song.

It’s also going to make for an exciting final couple of days in the NBA’s regular season.

 

Report: Utah “frontrunner” to land Mike Conley Jr. if Memphis trades him this week

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Utah feels like it is close — a 50-win team two seasons in a row, an elite defense, an All-NBA center in Rudy Gobert and an elite shot creator in Donovan Michell. They look at the West next season, with a depleted Warriors team, and see an opening.

Yet when Utah fell to Houston 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs this year, it was reminded of what is keeping the team from being truly elite, and another shot creator and shooter is at the top of that list.

Enter Mike Conley Jr. He averaged 21.1 points and 6.4 assists per game last season, shot 36.4 percent from three, and plays strong defense. Conley would be an upgrade over Ricky Rubio at the spot.

The almost All-Star point guard out of Memphis is available via trade. He’s the kind of veteran floor general, shooter, and shot creator Utah could use. The Jazz and Grizzlies talked but couldn’t come to an agreement at the trade deadline, but the sides are talking again and conversations are “intensifying” in the run-up to the NBA Draft Thursday, reports Shams Charania of The Athletic.

The Grizzlies are intensifying talks to potentially move franchise cornerstone Mike Conley Jr., league sources told The Athletic. Memphis has been in conversations with the Jazz and Utah is a frontrunner to acquire Conley should the Grizzlies trade the point guard during draft week, league sources said.

What would be in a trade package? Certainly the No. 23 pick in this draft, plus some young players the Grizzlies like (maybe Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neal, and even someone like Jae Crowder. Reports say Derick Favors is not part of the discussion.

While anything can happen the week of the draft — and things change quickly — don’t be surprised if some version of this trade gets done.

Kawhi Leonard wins day with last laugh — his viral laugh — at end of speech

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Kawhi Leonard just won again.

He won his second NBA title leading the Toronto Raptors to the franchise’s first crown. He earned his second Finals MVP in the process.

Then on Monday he had the last laugh and won the Raptors’ championship parade in Toronto by ending his speech with his laugh, the same one that went viral at the start of the season.

Of course, what Leonard will do on July 1 was a cloud hanging over the parade, Leonard is a free agent this summer. Kyle Lowry at one point started a “five more years” chant during the parade, which is the maximum number of years Toronto can re-sign Leonard for.

Leonard, exactly as we all should have expected, dodged the question, while praising his time in Toronto.

Unfortunately, this was a parade marred by more serious concerns.

How corrosive is tension between James Harden and Chris Paul in Houston?

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Golden State is not going to be contending for a title next season. Sorry Stephen, but you’re just not.

That throws open the doors to the West crown and, eventually, the NBA title, and teams will be lining up to take their shots. The Lakers just added Anthony Davis to go with LeBron James. Denver should improve and is looking for wing help. Utah feels just one playmaker away. The Clippers are big game hunting, and if they land one they become a threat.

Houston, however, should be at the front of that line… if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot. Contract extension talks with coach Mike D’Antoni are stalled, and at ESPN Tim MacMahon put together a fascinating inside look at the tension between at his isolation-heavy and at his peak James Harden and the intense but declining Chris Paul.

But Paul noticeably lost a step last season, as evidenced by analytics and the eye test. Paul pushed for more plays and sets in the Houston offense, more screening and deception, despite Harden being in the process of putting together a historically dominant individual offensive season.

“Chris wants to coach James,” says a source familiar with the stars’ dynamic. “James looks at him like, ‘You can’t even beat your man. Just shut up and watch me.'”…

It has reached a point, team sources say, where Paul cherishes the chance to play without Harden on the floor. On several occasions, according to team sources, Paul barked at D’Antoni to keep Harden on the bench while he was running the second unit. Harden simultaneously would lobby — or demand — to check back into the game.

There’s tension there, but is it corrosive to the point of the team unraveling? Or, as GM Daryl Morey and everyone else with the Rockets says, is this just blown out of proportion? Time will tell.

Two things to point out.

First, tension between two stars and alpha personalities is far from new in the NBA (or any other professional sport), and it does not mean a team is in trouble. These things can be worked out, they just flared up more in the wake of the round two loss to the Warriors.

Second, these guys are stuck with each other. Obviously, the Rockets aren’t trading Harden. They would be open to trading CP3, but at age 34 and owed $124 million over three more seasons, there are no takers (unless the Rockets want to throw in a sweetener, which they don’t). The players around them may change, the coach could change, but Harden and Paul have years left together.

This team is so close to a title, it’s hard to envision them really coming apart at the seams next season. These guys are too professional for that… although in wild NBA crazier things have happened.

Report: Bucks trying to trade Tony Snell or Ersan Ilyasova with draft-pick sweetener

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Coming off their best season in decades, the Bucks will send four quality players into free agency – Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Malcolm Brogdon and Nikola Mirotic.

How will Milwaukee keep its core intact?

Maybe by unloading Tony Snell ($11,592,857 salary next season, $12,378,571 player option the following season) or Ersan Ilyasova ($7 million salary next season, $7 million unguaranteed the following season).

Marc Stein of The New York Times:

With Bird Rights for Middleton, Brogdon and Mirotic, Milwaukee faces no salary-cap restrictions on keeping just those three. The only cost is real dollars, including potential luxury-tax payments.

It’s trickier with Lopez. Giving him the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (which projects to be about $9 million) – the most they can pay without opening cap space – would hard-cap the Bucks at a projected team salary of about $138 million. That could be a difficult line to stay under.

Unless Snell or Ilyasova are off the books.

Neither player has a desirable contract, which is why Milwaukee is shopping them with a draft pick attached. But both can still contribute. Ilyasova is a smart veteran power forward who shoots well from outside and takes a lot of charges. Snell is also a good outside shooter, and though his all-around game is lacking, there’s a dearth of helpful wings around the league.

The Bucks have the No. 30 pick in Thursday’s draft. They could select on behalf of another team then trade the draft rights. The Stepien rule applies only to future drafts.

Beyond that pick, Milwaukee is short on tradable draft picks. The Bucks have already traded two protected future first-round picks and their next three second-rounders. Dealing another first-rounder would require complex protections. Perhaps, a distant second-rounder is enough.

It’s important for Milwaukee to figure this out. Giannis Antetokounmpo likes this core group, and everyone is watching his level of satisfaction with the Bucks as his super-max decision approaches.