Did Tim Donaghy fix games while working as NBA referee?
That question still draws interest, even many years after he admitted to supplying gamblers with inside information in exchange for money. Donaghy has denied fixing games.
A new investigation into Donaghy was published by ESPN earlier this week. I recommend reading Scott Eden’s piece in full.
Then, it’s worth reading the NBA’s response.
The Tim Donaghy matter concluded over a decade ago with a full investigation by the federal government, Donaghy’s termination from the NBA, and his conviction for criminal acts. At the same time, at the request of the NBA, former prosecutor Larry Pedowitz conducted an independent investigation of Donaghy’s misconduct and issued publicly a 133-page report. This report was based on an extensive review of game data and video as well as approximately 200 interviews, thousands of pages of documents, and consultation with various gambling and data experts.
The ESPN Article attempts to revive this old story. Unfortunately, it is replete with errors, beginning with its statement that the Pedowitz Report “concluded that Donaghy, in fact, did not fix games.” The Pedowitz Report made no such conclusion. Rather, the investigation found no basis to disagree with the finding of the FBI and the U.S. Attorney’s Office that “[t]here is no evidence that Donaghy ever intentionally made a particular ruling during a game in order to increase the likelihood that his gambling pick would be correct.” ESPN ignores this important distinction.
The new material that ESPN has assembled to support its own conclusion that Donaghy manipulated games is not strong and adds little to the existing record.
The ESPN Article includes several quotes from named and unnamed individuals. But these statements conflict with other evidence in the record and in many cases are based on speculation. For example:
• ESPN quotes Phil Scala, a retired FBI agent who was part of the government’s investigation, as saying Donaghy’s claim that he did not manipulate games “never really flew with us.” But in 2009, Scala wrote a foreword to a book authored by Donaghy in which Scala characterized Donaghy’s cooperation as “unconditionally truthful” and stated that Donaghy “confess[ed] his sins, [took] full responsibility for his actions, pa[id] his debt to society, and [found] the humility to completely display his past vices.”
• ESPN quotes an anonymous “professional gambler” as claiming Donaghy told him “he liked to call an illegal defense call, right away, in the first minute.” But this claim is not accurate. In the 274 regular season and playoff games that Donaghy officiated during the 2003-04 to 2006-07 seasons, he called illegal defense three times during the first minute of a game.
• ESPN asserts that Donaghy had “come clean” to Tommy Martino. But the actual quotes attributed to Martino do not appear to support that conclusion – they only suggest that Donaghy told Martino he could influence games, not that he had in fact done so.
The ESPN Article relies on a statistical analysis of Donaghy’s officiating and betting line movements. We asked ESPN to provide us with the data and assumptions underlying this analysis, but they refused. Based on the limited information contained in the Article, we attempted to replicate ESPN’s findings – but were unable to do so. Indeed, our analysis found no meaningful pattern of Donaghy making more calls in favor of the team that had the “heavier betting.”
Further, the original analyses conducted by the Pedowitz team were significantly more comprehensive than what ESPN appears to have done. For example, ESPN’s work appears to include only foul calls, and not significant non-calls or violations. It further treats all calls the same, without considering the nature or circumstances of the call – such as “take fouls” or high-impact shooting fouls. And ESPN questionably excludes from its analysis 10 games that it deemed to be “blowouts” and roughly 50 calls that it could not attribute to a particular referee – omissions that could meaningfully alter its conclusions.
Finally, it is important to remember that a statistical analysis can only suggest a probability of an event’s occurrence – it does not itself constitute direct evidence that an event occurred. By contrast, the Pedowitz team and the NBA supplemented statistical analysis with an assessment of the accuracy of each of Donaghy’s actual calls and non-calls in relevant games. These analyses also did not support ESPN’s conclusions.
Anecdotal Evidence from Games
The ESPN Article cites several games officiated by Donaghy that included calls or call patterns that ESPN deemed suspicious. However, these examples have limited value separate from a more careful video analysis, and they frequently omit material information. For example:
• Dallas @ Seattle, 12/20/2006: ESPN cites a foul called by Donaghy against Seattle with 23 seconds remaining in the game that purportedly gave Dallas an opportunity to cover an 8-point spread. But it omits that this was an intentional “take foul” by Seattle. The Article also cites a streak of fouls called by Donaghy against Seattle in the same game, purportedly to favor Dallas. But it omits that after this streak, and during the last four minutes of the game, Donaghy called two fouls against Dallas.
• Boston @ Philadelphia, 12/13/2006: ESPN cites two consecutive fouls called by Donaghy against the Sixers’ Andre Iguodala in the third quarter when the game’s score margin was near the point spread. But it omits that between those fouls, Donaghy called a foul against the Celtics’ Paul Pierce.
• Washington @ Indiana, 3/14/2007: ESPN cites four consecutive fouls called by Donaghy against the Pacers in the fourth quarter when the game’s margin was near the point spread. But it omits that immediately prior to this streak, Donaghy called four consecutive fouls against the Wizards.
* * *
We recognize there is strong interest in the subject of expanded sports betting and the measures sports organizations should undertake to protect integrity. However, the ESPN Article does not add anything material to the record of what happened over a decade ago. There is no dispute that Tim Donaghy engaged in criminal conduct as an NBA referee, costing him his job, his reputation, and for a time, his freedom. The Pedowitz investigation focused on understanding what Donaghy did and how he did it so we would be best equipped to protect the integrity of our games going forward.
In that regard, the Pedowitz Report prompted changes to the NBA’s officiating and integrity programs. A summary of the initiatives the NBA has adopted since 2008 is available here. This summary provides added context that describes the NBA’s response to the Donaghy situation and our continued efforts to ensure that the NBA’s integrity programs meet the highest standards.
The Donaghy matter also underscores the need for sports leagues to have greater access to betting data from sports books to monitor gambling on their games. We will continue our ongoing efforts to obtain this information to further expand our integrity efforts and best protect our sport in an age of legalized sports gambling.
The NBA is right: the Pedowitz Report did not conclude that Donaghy didn’t fix games. The report merely found insufficient evidence to disagree with the FBI and the U.S. Attorney’s Office, which found no evidence Donaghy fixed games. A lack of evidence to contradict a lack of evidence is not nearly as conclusive as “Donaghy didn’t fix games.”
But is the NBA really now casting doubt on the notion Donaghy didn’t fix games?
That seems backward. The league should seemingly want to protect its integrity, not call attention to lack of clarity around what Donaghy did and didn’t do.
Maybe the NBA is just trying to cast general doubt onto Eden’s reporting. Some of the above distinctions seem like nitpicking, at least without more context. For example, how many illegal defenses did Donaghy call in the first five minutes of games? The gambler might have been embellishing by saying “first minute.”
Still, the league raises one question that seems particularly relevant: Why did former FBI agent Phil Scala vouch for Donaghy’s honesty then express doubt over Donaghy’s claim he didn’t fix games?
Ultimately, I wish we had better data. Pedowitz reviewed only 17 games, but examined all calls. ESPN reviewed 40 games, but apparently examined only fouls.
However, statistical analysis can’t prove Donaghy’s motives. It can only indicate trends. So, even better data won’t prove whether or not Donaghy fixed games.
But here’s what I can’t get over, no matter how ESPN or the NBA frames these details: Donaghy broke the law to sell gamblers information while working as a referee. Will anyone ever believe he drew the line before fixing games?