The past few years we’ve gone into the trade deadline hearing a lot of buzz about big, bold trades and plenty of them — or, at least a decent number of interesting deals — only to be left wanting and disappointed.
This season, we’re going to save you the time:
This trade deadline is going to suck.
There will be some small deals, salaries and some names you recognized will change hands, but situations and market forces have conspired against this trade deadline. With Jimmy Butler having forced his way out of Minnesota, the other big names on the board either are not available or are not guys teams are willing to pay a premium for right now.
The biggest issue: There are a lot of buyers but not a lot of sellers. It’s simple supply and demand — with all but five or six teams within a few games of the playoffs, more teams are looking to add talent, or at least keep what they have, not move it along. Sacramento is offering up Zach Randolph but the franchise is within three games of ending a 10-year playoff drought and so they are holding on to the Iman Shumperts of the world to win now, and they would even take on a player who could help them. (Enes Kanter?)
Or, out East, think about Brooklyn. They have guys before the season we would have expected to be available — DeMarre Carroll, Jared Dudley, Ed Davis, Kenneth Faried — but right now they are the six seed and not moving anyone.
Nonetheless, here is our trade deadline preview, starting with the disappointment.
EVERYONE IS TALKING, BUT THESE GUYS WILL NOT BE TRADED AT DEADLINE
• Anthony Davis (New Orleans). Sources with direct knowledge of the Pelicans’ thinking have told NBC Sports that Davis will not be traded this season. Which is what coach Alvin Gentry and owner Gayle Benson have said publicly, and plenty of others have reported as well. This July could be different (if Davis turns down the $239 million supermax extension) but at the trade deadline he is staying put and the Pelicans are aggressive buyers, not sellers.
• Kevin Love (Cleveland). He has played just four games due to a toe injury, some teams are not sure how well he fits in a modern NBA (especially on defense), and he has a four-year, $120 million contract that kicks in next season. This is one of the most unmovable contracts in the NBA.
• John Wall (Washington). The one guy with a larger contract extension than Love, and Wall is out for the rest of the season after surgery to remove bone spurs. This is the most unmovable contract in the NBA now.
• Andre Drummond (Pistons). This is a rumor that has surfaced in recent days, based on the fact he doesn’t fit with Blake Griffin that well and Griffin is the new face and direction of the franchise. All of that is true. But Drummond is still a quality center who will make $27 million next season and has a player option for $28.7 the season after that. There are few takers at that price unless the Pistons want to throw in picks as sweeteners or take on even worse contracts.
PLAYERS TO WATCH AS WE HEAD INTO THE DEADLINE
• J.R, Smith (Cleveland). The man most likely to be traded at the deadline, he’s a veteran wing player who may be older, may have the occasional epic blunder in the Finals, but can provide depth and has experience on the biggest stages. The Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans — two teams looking for wing depth — have been linked to Smith, but others could emerge. The Cavaliers are willing to sell (we’ve seen that already this season) but there may not be much of a market for him as teams think he will get bought out after the deadline and be available then.
• Jeremy Lin (Atlanta Hawks). A quality backup point guard — 11 points a game, shooting 37 percent from three, a PER of 17.5 — who was brought in both to mentor Trae Young and to be a trade asset at the deadline. He makes $13.8 million but it is an expiring contract. Finding the right deal will not be easy but a lot of teams could use what he brings offensively off the bench down the stretch and into the playoffs. Expect to hear a lot of Lin rumors.
• Terrence Ross (Orlando Magic). There’s a real demand for quality wings on the market (Pelicans, Rockets, and more), and the Magic have one on an expiring contract in Ross. He is averaging 13.3 points a game, shooting 39.3 percent from three, and could provide depth to a lot of teams. Orlando’s new management reportedly wants to rebuild around their young stars more than win now, so they should want to make deals. However, they are just a few games out of the playoffs so there could be a push from ownership or elsewhere to keep this team in the postseason mix. That said, Ross is a player who seems as likely as anyone to get traded before the deadline.
• Otto Porter (Washington). Nobody wants John Wall and the asking price for Bradley Beal makes him all but untradeable, however, Porter might be the compromise who could get traded out of the Wizards’ core. He’s a good wing player who is averaging 12.3 points a game, gets rebounds, is shooting 37.9 percent from three, and can defend. Two reasons he likely doesn’t get moved. One is money — he makes $26 million this season, has a fully guaranteed $27.3 million contract for next season, and has a $28.5 million player option for 2020-21 (which he likely picks up). Teams aren’t eager to take on that much money for a player who isn’t an All-NBA level talent. Plus, do the Wizards want to sell? The Wizards have won 4-of-6, are within three games of the playoffs, and GM Ernie Grunfeld always wants to win now. It’s possible nobody from the team is available.
• Trevor Ariza (Washington). Yes, he’s already been traded once this season, sent from Phoenix to Washington to help boost a floundering team in our nation’s capital. That hasn’t really happened, and now with John Wall out for the season the Wizards should write this season off and sell. The Lakers, Rockets and other teams will be interested, the Wizards need to get younger and more athletic, there’s a deal to be made here. That is, if they want to — as noted above, GM Ernie Grunfeld is a win now guy and wants to make a playoff push, not trade the players who can get them to the postseason away.
• Nikola Vucevic (Orlando Magic). If Orlando is going to be a seller, there will be teams interested in renting Vucevic (he’s a free agent after this season). Vucevic is averaging 20.2 points and 12 rebounds a game, is shooting 39.6 percent from three, and he’s very skilled — a lot of teams could use that skill set. Vucevic is making $12.75 million and is an unrestricted free agent after this season, meaning teams are not going to surrender much for a rental. But, there is interest and rumors have been flying around.
Kent Bazemore (Atlanta Hawks). Bazemore is exactly the kind of wing a lot of teams could use for the stretch and playoff run — athletic, scores 14 points a game, can attack the rim, defends, has to be respected from three. The Hawks will listen to offers. The problem is he makes $18 million this season with a player option for $19.3 next season that he will pick up — teams are not willing to take on the salary without getting a sweetener in return. That’s not happening, making a deal a longshot.