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Chance (and maybe the Celtics) are biggest roadblock to Warriors this season

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I would like to tell you that the Houston Rockets adding Carmelo Anthony is a major threat to the Golden State Warriors.

I could tell you that the Oklahoma City Thunder, back in full health and with a former MVP on its roster, could create significant matchup problems for the reigning NBA champions.

It would be helpful to write that LeBron James and his Island of Misfit Boys will be a Western Conference Finals foe for Steve Kerr’s squad.

The problem is that I don’t think any of that is true.

The reality of the situation is that the only real thing standing in the way of the Warriors grabbing another title is health. Specifically, the health of the two players who are clearly the most important for them when it comes to the playoffs, Stephen Curry and Andre Iguodala.

But writing a season preview for the Warriors focused on the anxiety of a potential major injury to a star player delves too far into the macabre even for yours truly. That’s not to say that a catastrophic injury couldn’t derail Golden State’s season, it’s just that writing about such a thing in September seems a bit fatalistic.

From a basketball standpoint, it is true the Rockets are a top contender to at least cause problems for the Warriors come playoff time. Before Chris Paul‘s injury last year, Houston took Golden State right to the wire in a thrilling Western Conference Finals matchup that resulted in yet another win for a Paul foe by TKO. And as much of a CP3 fan as I am, it’s damn near impossible to try and count on him being a major player deep into the playoffs at this juncture in his career.

The Thunder are a contrarian’s pick against Golden State, although even with Andre Roberson back it’s not clear how Oklahoma City is better than the Warriors. Russell Westbrook is a machine, and the Thunder are more sorted out as ever as they return Paul George. But where the Thunder could take advantage of Golden State, so too are there too many options available for the Warriors to take advantage of Oklahoma City.

This goes the same, on down the list, for just about every team when trying to pick an upset in Oakland. The problem with the Warriors is that they have too many counters to any kind of matchup problems or schematic Molotov cocktails opponents might throw at them in the playoffs.

The West is an absolute gauntlet, but the real answer for who might be able to create problems for the Warriors could lie in the East. The Boston Celtics seem most rotationally appropriate as foils for the Warriors’ cornucopia of basketball talent. Gordon Hayward returns to a team that won 55 games last season before finally looking outmatched by LeBron and the Cavaliers for lack of veteran leadership in the postseason.

The Celtics will get that back in spades as Hayward returns from a broken tibia and as Kyrie Irving, who sat out the entire playoffs, brings more firepower to the starting lineup. Boston is one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and if Jayson Tatum doesn’t hit a sophomore wall it’s possible the Celtics waiver only slightly as they move through their bench rotation. Al Horford was stellar last year. Marcus Smart is coming back. Jaylen Brown was far more valuable than many thought he would be at this stage in his career. There is no way around it, Boston is good.

This is not to lend any kind of confidence to the idea that the Warriors will have a real challenger in the Finals this season. The reality is that at full force, Golden State is better than any team in the NBA. That holds true even if Kevin Durant decides to leave next season, at least for the time being. The true enemy of the Warriors will be cap space and the aging of their core, both in terms of miles on Curry’s ankles, Iguodala’s everything, and Draymond Green’s upcoming contract. Klay Thompson has said that he wants to stay put, but anything is possible when money comes into play in the NBA.

For now, it seems as though the Warriors will continue their dominance at least through this season. Over the next three to four years, that will change. Golden State will waver, even if ever so slightly. Options will be available for teams to take over that top spot in the NBA, and someone else will win a championship.

Whether it’s the Celtics, or the Rockets, or some other team, opponents will need to pounce if Golden State shows the slightest sign of weakness, this year or next. No doubt many are prepping for that very thing.

Report: Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta has griped about Chris Paul’s contract in front of rival executives

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In 2017, Chris Paul opted in to facilitate a trade to the capped-out Rockets. By forgoing free agency and a max salary, Paul sacrificed $10,083,055 that season. With Paul and James Harden, the Rockets became a championship contender and pushed the Warriors in the 2018 Western Conference finals.

The bill came due last summer.

Houston re-signed the aging Paul to a four-year max contract worth $159,730,592. That deal always looked like it could age poorly, and Paul – now 34 – is already slowing.

Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta has noticed.

Tim MacMahon of ESPN:

Fertitta has grumbled about Paul’s contract, expressing regret to Rockets staffers and even in front of rival executives, according to league sources.

Fertitta bought the Rockets after they traded for Paul. Though the sale was completed before they re-signed Paul, it seems the contract terms were at least discussed as far back as the opt-in-and-trade.

So, Fertitta didn’t necessarily sign off on this arrangement.

But it was good for Houston! It made the Rockets the biggest threat to the Kevin Durant-supercharged Warriors to that point. Re-signing Paul helped keep Houston in title contention this year. The Rockets were limited in that pursuit by Fertitta’s spending limitations, not by locking Paul into this contract.

Yes, there’s downside to Paul’s deal. Houston is feeling it now. Paul will be difficult, though not impossible, to trade this summer.

But as much as Fertitta talks about winning, he yet again shows why that’s all bluster.

Kawhi Leonard wears ‘Board Man Gets Paid’ shirt to Raptors’ championship parade (video)

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NBA championship celebrations have become defined by the shirts (or lack thereof).

The clear winner at the Raptors’ parade today: Kawhi Leonard and his ‘Board Man Gets Paid‘ shirt:

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MVP!

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Second place goes to Kyle Lowry, the Raptors’ all-time franchise player honoring Toronto’s original franchise player, Damon Stoudamire:

As expected, Julius Randle will opt out of contract with Pelicans, become free agent

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The math on this is very simple.

After a couple of impressive seasons in a row, Julius Randle‘s stock is going up. The 24-year-old forward averaged 21.4 points and 8.7 rebounds per game for the Pelicans last season, using his strength and athleticism to bully his way to buckets. That said, he also shot 34.4 percent from three, you have to respect him at the arc. He’s impressed a lot of teams.

Randle had a player option for $9.1 million with the Pelicans next season. On the open market, he likely will get a multi-year deal starting in the low teens ($13 million at least). So what do you think he was going to do?

The Pelicans are okay with this move. While they like Randle, they have Zion Williamson coming in playing a similar role (and they hope better).

A few teams to keep an eye on rumored to have interest in Randle are the Phoenix Suns, Brooklyn, Nets, and Dallas Mavericks. Others will throw their hat in the ring as well.

It’s going to be a good summer to be Julius Randle.

2019 NBA Draft Prospect Profile: Zion Williamson, the perfect prospect at the perfect time

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Over the course of the next two weeks, as the 2019 NBA Draft draws closer and closer, we at Pro Basketball Talk will be taking deep dives into some of the best and most intriguing prospects that will be making their way to the NBA.

Today, we are looking at Zion Williamson.

Previous draft profiles:

The thing that stands out when it comes to Zion Williamson, the biggest reason that he has become an internet sensation with a chance of becoming an international superstar, is his athleticism.

It’s the dunks.

Human beings aren’t supposed to be the size of Zion, and the people that are that big certainly are not supposed to be able to move – or fly – the way that he does. That athleticism plays a major role in the reason why he is, for my money, the best prospect to enter the NBA since Anthony Davis, but it is far from the only reason that he has a chance to be a generational talent at the next level.

In an era of positionless basketball, Zion Williamson has the potential to develop into the NBA’s preeminent small-ball five, or point-center, or whatever term it is you want to use to describe the basketball’s biggest matchup nightmares.

It starts on the defensive side of the ball. Williamson stands just 6-foot-7 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, but between his athleticism, his strength and his anticipation, he plays like a 7-footer. He’s not going to get buried under the rim by even the biggest centers in the league, and he is terrific at coming from the weakside and blocking shots at the rim:

His anticipation is on another level defensively, which is what makes him such a dangerous playmaker on that side of the ball. He jumps passing lanes, he can pick a point guard’s pocket when blitzing a ball-screen, he has an understanding of what an opponent is going to try to do before they do it.

He’s not just a rim protector, however. He can move his feet on the perimeter, staying in front of point guards when he is caught in a switch:

He can do all of the things that bigs are asked to do defensively in the pace-and-space era, and he may be the best that we’ve ever seen when it comes to grab-and-go ability. In transition is where he may end up being the most valuable and the most dangerous. Williamson can lead a break. There is room for him to improve his handle, but he would be able to step onto an NBA floor today and be capable of bringing the ball up the floor. His speed and strength makes him nearly impossible to stop when he gets up a head of steam, but he also has terrific vision and is capable of making pinpoint passes through traffic when defenses throw multiple bodies at him.

That vision was most evident in transition this past season, but he did show flashes of being able to create off the bounce in a halfcourt setting as well.

Part of the reason those chances were limited was due to the way that defenses played Duke this season. The Blue Devils were one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country last year, and the result was that by the the ACC and NCAA tournaments rolled around, the secret was out — other than Cam Reddish, you didn’t really have to worry about guarding anyone else beyond 10-12 feet. Opposing defenses simply packed as many bodies as possible in the paint, and while Williamson was still able to get to the rim just about at will — and shoot 68 percent from the floor in the process — it limited the chances that he had to actually rack up assists. He wasn’t dumping the ball off to the bigs when there were four defenders standing with a foot in the charge circle, and kick-out passes to the likes of Tre Jones, Jordan Goldwire and Jack White were precisely what defenses wanted.

Put another way, I think that Williamson’s assist numbers are going to be what spikes at the next level. Not only will he be playing in a league where there is significantly more spacing, but the reason for that spacing will be the fact that he is surrounded by guys that can actually make threes.

That spacing, by the way, will make Williamson significantly more difficult to guard. There simply are not any traditional fives in the NBA that are going to be able to keep Williamson in front with any kind of consistency, and the players that are quick enough are not going to be strong enough to keep Williamson from getting to his spots. And for all the concerns that have been voiced about Williamson’s shooting ability, he did finish the season hitting 33.8 percent of his three-pointers. If Draymond Green shot 33.8 percent from three, then the Raptors might actually respect him enough to feign guarding him beyond the arc in the Finals.

I bring up Green for a reason, because I think he is the perfect place to start talking about what Williamson can be at the next level. Williamson will be able to do, and has the potential to be better at, all of the things that Green does so well — guarding 1-through-5, protecting the rim, bringing the ball up the floor, leading the break. But what really sets Green apart from the field is the way that he is able to exploit 3-on-2s and 2-on-1s offensively and stop 2-on-1s defensively.

I’m not sure there is a player in the NBA that is as basketball smart as Green. He almost never makes the wrong decision on the offensive end of the floor, and part of what makes Golden State’s offense so lethal is that you’re forced to choose between using an extra defender to keep Steph Curry or Klay Thompson from getting a clean look at a three or letting Green make a play with a numbers advantage. On the defensive end, there is no one that is better at stopping those exact same 2-on-1 situations than Green.

There just isn’t.

And I think that Williamson has the basketball smarts and ability to be able to, potentially, do all of those things just as well one day.

He’s also bigger, more athletic, a better natural defender, a better scorer and a more difficult player to stop 1-on-1.

Imagine if you took Julius Randle‘s scoring ability, gave it to Green and then super-charged that Frankenstein with the kind of strength, speed and athleticism that would make the NFL’s best defensive ends jealous.

Would that be a player you might be interested in?