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Deandre Ayton and Luka Doncic lead tiered 2018 NBA draft board

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How this works:

Draft for need or take the best player available?

It’s the question as old as drafts themselves. Personally, I favor the middle-of-the-road approach – the tier system. I judge prospects on three attributes:

  • Current ability
  • Potential
  • Likelihood of meeting that potential

Obviously, assessing those attributes is not easy. It’s really hard.

That’s why I don’t like taking the best prospect – based on all three criteria – available. It’s just too difficult to split hairs between players with so many variables.

But overly considering fit is problematic for the same reason. Rosters churn, and it’s foolish to pass on a clearly better prospect – in the cases that becomes clear – just because he doesn’t fit the current version of the team.

So how does the tier system work?

Divide players into tiers based on their value regardless of fit. Don’t worry about differentiating prospects with nearly identical values. Find natural cutoffs.

Then, within each tier, rank the players based on fit for the specific drafting team.

Theoretically, a draft could have anywhere between 1 and 60 tiers. A 1-tier draft would mean every prospect – from the top pick to Mr. Irrelevant – holds the same value. A 60-tier draft would mean every prospect is clearly distinguishable based on value. Obviously, neither is likely.

The size of tiers should be organic, and therefore, the number of tiers is also organic. Naturally, tiers tend to be smaller near the top of the draft, where lines between players are sharper.

Here are the 16 tiers necessary to get through the first round. Within each tier, I rank players as if the drafting teams had empty rosters. Obviously, actual NBA teams would need to consider other information when assessing fit of players within a tier.

Tier 1

1. DeAndre Ayton, C, Arizona

His physical profile – 7-foot with a 7-foot-5 wingspan, muscular, smoothly fast, high jumper – is nearly mythological. He has nice touch on his shot near the basket, in mid-range (though he shoots from there too often) and maybe eventually beyond the NBA 3-point arc. The big red flags come on defense, where Ayton far too often looks lost. At least he has the tools to excel on that end if he figures it out, though I have major questions whether he will.

2. Luka Doncic, PG, Real Madrid

Just 19, Doncic is already starring in the highest levels of European basketball. Nobody has ever done that before. He flat out knows how to play. His ball-handling and passing are expert level, and he’s a good shooter, particularly off the dribble. At 6-foot-8, he’s fairly position-less on the perimeter, but I’d want the ball in his hands enough to consider him a point guard. His underwhelming athleticism is concerning. Athletic wings – far more common in the NBA than Europe – could give him trouble, especially in his ability to create separation. His defensive upside is also limited. But Doncic plays a strong all-around game, including as a rebounder, which speaks to his functional athleticism.

Tier 2

3. Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma

Young’s combination of scoring and shooting gives him elite potential – if he’s not too small. He can make all the standard passing reads required of a starting NBA point guard, which is no small achievement for a 19-year-old. He’s also at least a good 3-point shooter with ability to hit pull-ups and spot-ups. But he’s small, 6-foot-2 with a 6-foot-3 wingspan. Can he defend anyone? Can he finish inside? Can he make cross-court passes through defenses? Young’s diminutive frame threatens to undermine him, but he is a skilled, high-upside prospect.

4. Jaren Jackson Jr., C, Michigan State

Jackson has shown all the main skills for a modern center. He shoots 3-pointers, protects the rim as a help defender and switches onto forwards and guards. But he too often played timid, exemplified by frequently fouling rather than battling physically. Is that because he’s soft or because he was just 18 playing for a hard-driving coach who never seemed to figure out quite how to use him? Jackson’s offensive upside is limited by his lacking court vision and explosiveness. But teams shouldn’t fear drafting a player high just because he doesn’t project well as a scorer. That’s only one skill of many. Jackson would fit well with nearly any set of teammates on both ends of the court.

Tier 3

5. Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas

Ayton might be the only prospect who matches Bamba’s ceiling. Bamba is huge – 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-10 wingspan. Reasonably mobile and a high leaper, he covers a lot of ground. And he often must defensively, because he’s not always in ideal position due to recognition and/or effort issues. Yet, he’s already still quite effective. Does that indicate his potential to get even better? Or does it show his intelligence doesn’t cleanly translate to visual/spatial awareness? I believe in his ability to become an elite rim protector much more than I do his switchability on the perimeter. With the athleticism necessary to do it in the modern game, Bamba fills the role of a fairly traditional center – blocking shots, rebounding, finishing inside. He’s developing his 3-pointer, though that remains largely hypothetical as an asset.

6. Mikal Bridges, SF, Villanova

Bridges projects extremely well as a 3-and-D role player. It can be tempting to reach for someone with higher upside, but there are plenty of players with high-usage starring styles. Good teams need players like Bridges, who has a good feel for how to help as a complementary player. He’s a good 3-point shooter, and he can penetrate against closeouts and in the pick-and-roll, finish well at the rim or dishing as he drives. He’s also an active cutter and capable post-up player against smaller players. At 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, Bridges has the length – though not necessarily strength – to defend several positions. He possesses plenty of functional athleticism defensively thanks to his high basketball intelligence. He just lacks the aggressiveness and off-the-dribble shooting ability to take over games.

Tier 4

7. Michael Porter, SF/PF, Missouri

Porter’s back injury scares me so, so, so much. He’d rank much higher with more dependable health. Porter is a good shooter from deep and mid-range. With a smooth stride, ball-handling ability in the open court, ability to shoot on the move and a 6-foot-10 frame, he can get his shot off at will. Relatedly, he too often settles for bad shots once he gets the ball. On the flip side, he works hard off the ball to get in good scoring position. His defensive indifference puts his length to waste. Likewise, he doesn’t make enough effort offensively to do more than just get his points.

8. Miles Bridges, PF/SF, Michigan State

Bridges should be more effective as a small-ball power forward in the NBA. Though his length – 6-foot-7 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan – isn’t ideal, he has the strength and competitiveness to hold up inside. He could guard bigger, more athletic small forwards, too. At power forward, his speed and shooting become weapons. Bridges already does a fine job creating shots for himself, and he’d fare even better if his ball-handling improves.

Tier 5

9. Marvin Bagley, PF/C, Duke

Bagley is an elite above-the-rim finisher, and he does plenty to generate those efficient shots. He’s extremely quick for 6-foot-11, and he runs the floor hard, often beating his man to the rim. He’s also an excellent rebounder, taking advantage of his quick multi-jump ability. Until he becomes a better screener, he’ll be limited in base halfcourt offenses. More troublingly, he provides so little as a rim protector due to poor defensive awareness, a relatively short 7-foot-1 wingspan and middling core strength. He might have to play power forward defensively, but I don’t trust his outside shot enough for him to be anything but a center offensively, which creates complications.

Tier 6

10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Kentucky

A 6-foot-6 point guard with a 7-foot wingspan, Gilgeous-Alexander always looks in control by the way he smoothly changes speed and direction. He uses his length to finish, with both hands, from many angles and evade defenders. But when he can’t get going downhill against defenses going under on pick-and-rolls, his pull-up jumper becomes a liability. He’s developing as a distributor, and playing in an offense with more spacing than Kentucky’s last year should help. His defense is already solid and could get even better if he gets significantly stronger/more physical – natural for a 19-year-old but questionable for someone with his narrow frame.

11. Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama

Sexton relentlessly and ferociously attacks the rim with the ball in his hands – sometimes when lesser players couldn’t, sometimes when he shouldn’t. He must play a little more under control in the NBA, which should be easier with more spacing. Along with that, he must develop as a passer. But those are steps many point guards must make at his age, and few match his athleticism. Sexton – 6-foot-2 with a 6-foot-7 wingspan – has the length to defend well, but he’s probably a little overrated on that end. Perhaps, with a more reasonable offensive load, his overall defensive output will catch up to the flashes he showed.

Tier 7

12. Kevin Huerter, SG, Maryland

The 6-foot-7 Huerter is an excellent 3-point shooter. He can also score inside the arc with plenty of lift and, importantly, keeps his head up looking for passes as he drives. He takes too many risks on those passes, though. He’s neither fast nor strong enough to project as a good defender, though effort helps.

13. Lonnie Walker, SG, Miami

Walker – 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan and explosive athleticism – looks the part of an NBA player. He just didn’t put those physical traits to good use at Miami. He settled for too many bad shots, showed little court vision as a passer and locked in too rarely defensively. Still, it’s hard to turn down someone with so much potential at a scarce position. Maybe he’ll eventually translate his impressive tools into better production.

Tier 8

14. De'Anthony Melton, PG/SG, USC

Melton plays hard and smart, a combination that goes a long way. At 6-foot-3 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan and an aggressive physicality, he defends well on and off the ball. He rebounds at an elite rate for his position, and his court vision as a passer is tremendous. He doesn’t shoot well. He doesn’t have many moves with the ball. He doesn’t finish well in traffic. So, he won’t be an easy fit. But smart teams will figure out how to utilize him, and he’ll contribute to winning.

Tier 9

15. Wendell Carter, C, Duke

Carter can do a lot of things offensively, and because one of them is pass, it’s fine to give him the ball a lot. He’s not great at anything, but that’s OK. His ability to play inside and out will serve him well as he faces different defenders in a switch-heavy NBA. Carter has a long way to go defending in space, which is a major red flag. That deficiency can simply make bigs unplayable in the modern game.

Tier 10

16. Robert Williams, C, Texas A&M

Modern NBA offenses, with all the spacing they create, set the stage for bigs like Williams – 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan and impressive leaping ability – to roll to the rim and finish lobs against minimal defensive pressure. On the other end, he’s an impressive shot blocker. His motor, while improved, remains questionable. That particularly shows in his rebounding. Perhaps, he’ll look more motivated while playing his optimal position after getting jammed into big frontcourt at Texas A&M.

17. Donte DiVincenzo, SG, Villanova

DiVincenzo is a dangerous 3-point shooter with a high release point on and off the ball. He can wiggle his way to the rim and, with major hops, he finishes well. He’s a fine passer, though I consider him far more of a shooting guard than point guard. He just lacks the playmaking ability to run an offense, and he’s a little too slow to defend many point guards. His lackluster length – 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-6 wingspan – doesn’t help against shooting guards, either.

18. Kevin Knox, SF/PF, Kentucky

Still just 18, Knox is one of the youngest players in this draft. That’s important to remember, because he’s more of a project than many realize. He has a nice shooting stroke and the size (6-foot-9 with a 7-foot wingspan) to become a versatile defender. But he’s too limited as a ball-handler and distributor to trust with a major offensive role. And he’s not physical enough defensively or as a rebounder. Knox is a fine athlete, though hardly an eye-popping one, which raises questions about how high in the draft a team should bet on him.

Tier 11

19. Zhaire Smith, SF, Texas Tech

Smith played like a big man in college – defending, rebounding and using his elite hops to finish above the rim. He found many ways to help. At 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, that won’t fly in the NBA. He’ll have to develop more of a perimeter game. Smith’s star potential is limited. He performs poorly off the dribble – whether it’s driving to the rim, pulling up for a shot or drawing attention to kick to teammates. A player – especially someone guard-sized – can influence the game only so much if he’s not a threat with the ball in his hands. But Smith, who just turned 19, is young enough and has a strong enough work ethic to develop ball skills.

Tier 12

20. Dzanan Musa, SF, KK Cedevita

Musa is a gunner. The 6-foot-9 wing relentlessly hunts his own shots using advanced ball-handling in isolation and running the pick-and-roll. He can shoot from deep, in mid-range and on floaters. For someone with such a high usage, he’s quite efficient. But he’s probably not a good enough scorer to stick with this style in the NBA. How will he adjust? His all-around game is also lacking. At just 19, he already excels at the facet of play he has clearly committed to developing. Could he build a wider skill set if he so chooses? Would he expend energy on areas less flashy than scoring?

21. Troy Brown, SG, Oregon

Brown plays physically on both ends of the floor. He’s comfortable amid contact while driving to the basket, still finding the right blend of hunting his own shot and using his impressive court vision to find teammates. That playmaking is also helpful in creating transition opportunities, as Brown is comfortable grabbing rebounds and pushing the ball up court. He’s a good rebounder for his position. At 6-foot-7 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, he has the strength to defend multiple positions. Speed is an issue in some perimeter matchups. The big catch: Brown is a poor 3-point shooter, though he could develop there.

Tier 13

22. Jacob Evans, SG/SF, Cincinnati

Evans – 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan – does a great job anticipating and moving his feet to stay in front of his man defensively. But his so-so athleticism will limit him in some matchups. His basketball intelligence also extends to passing, but the usefulness of that skill is limited by lackluster ball-handling and burst. Though he won’t tilt defenses, he is a reliable spot-up 3-point shooter, giving him a true 3-and-D skill set.

23. Josh Okogie, SG, Georgia Tech

Quick and long (6-foot-5 with a 7-foot wingspan), Okogie covers a lot of ground defensively. He has the strength to defend three, maybe even four, positions. He was miscast as a go-to offensive player at Georgia Tech. Limit him mostly to spot-up 3-pointers, and he’ll look better, though not necessarily great. How well he hits those 3s from NBA distance will go a long way in determining his value.

Tier 14

24. Grayson Allen, SG, Duke

Allen is an elite shooter who plays passionately, for better or worse. Sometimes, that means winning hustle plays. Sometimes, that means tripping opponents. But get past the name, and don’t overlook his ability to play. Shooting is an ultra-important skill, and Allen has it. He fortifies it with enough athleticism to attack closeouts and improved point-guard skills. Defense, particularly lateral quickness, remains a big concern.

25. Shake Milton, SG/PG, Southern Methodist

Milton is a smooth shooter on 3-pointers and in the mid-range. His ball-handling and burst are too lacking for him to be a point guard full-time. He doesn’t get to the rim enough, and when he does, he finishes poorly. But playing on the ball in college should serve him well at the next level. He has developed nicely as a passer. Though he’s 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan, his slender frame will narrow the defensive matchups he can handle.

26. Jerome Robinson, PG/SG, Boston College

Robinson didn’t become good until his junior year. Don’t trust players who became good only as upperclassmen. Many of them just figure out how to produce at a lower level against younger competition. But some develop in ways to translate to the NBA, and Robinson looks good enough to fool me. He has a lightning-quick release on his jumper, which extended efficiently to 3-point range this season. He plays with patience, allowed by a tight handle. He might be more of a combo guard, but at least he’s 6-foot-5. Athleticism is a major concern, which could affect him as a finisher and defender.

27. Aaron Holiday, PG, UCLA

Holiday is tough to contain when he has the ball. Play too far off him, and he’ll splash 3-pointers. He’s unselfish, but a bit too sloppy as a distributor. He lacks the athleticism of his brothers, Jrue Holiday and Justin Holiday. That holds back Aaron as a finisher and defender and raises overall questions about his ability to translate to the next level.

Tier 15

28. Mitchell Robinson, C, Western Kentucky

Western Kentucky was an odd choice for a five-star recruit like Robinson, and he apparently agreed. He enrolled and left. Twice. College isn’t for everyone, but that odd saga raises red flags about Robinson’s life-management abilities. On the plus side: He’s 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and bouncy, and his hands are big and soft. He finishes well inside, hits the glass hard and blocks shots. He even flashes jump-shooting ability. But he’s unrefined and a major project in every way.

29. Elie Okobo, PG, Pau-Orthez

The 20-year-old looks ready to graduate from France’s top league. Is he ready for the NBA? Probably not. He’s a good shooter, but his release is low. His court vision has gotten pretty good, but he doesn’t always put enough on his passes when identifying skip and cross-court targets. There’s time for him to develop.

Tier 16

30. Jevon Carter, PG, West Virginia

Carter is a tenacious defender at the point of attack, and he has the strength and competitiveness to defend bigger players on switches. But at 6-foot-2 with a 6-foot-4 wingspan and subpar athleticism, it’s far from guaranteed his defensive attitude will actually yield positive results at the next level. He lacks the explosiveness and moves to really lead an offense, but at least he looks good as a spot-up 3-point shooter.

31. Anfernee Simons, SG, IMG Academy

Simons, who comes as close as possible nowadays to jumping to the NBA straight from high school, is a major project. A 6-foot-4 scoring guard, Simons has a tight handle and quick feet that he uses primarily to generate jumpers. He shoots with a quick release and has range beyond the NBA 3-point arc. He’s reliant on floaters inside, as he’s not nearly strong enough for the pros. He must also develop as a passer. Nobody drafting the 19-year-old should depend on him anytime soon.

32. Melvin Frazier, SF, Tulane

The 6-foot-6 Frazier brings a lot to defense – a 7-foot-2 wingspan, hyperactivity and supreme hops. He has made strides as a 3-point shooter, and his development there will be instrumental. He also works well as a cutter and can finish above the rim. Subpar ball-handling caps his ceiling and usefulness of this next skill, but he seems to possess good court vision.

LeBron James: Lakers ‘long way’ from Warriors

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The Lakers’ front office insists they’re trying to beat the Warriors.

Los Angeles’ newest star, LeBron James, isn’t there yet.

“We’ve got a long way to go to get to Golden State,” LeBron said. “They can pick up right where they left off.

“We’re picking up from scratch. So, we have a long way to go. … Hopefully, someday, we can put ourselves in a position where we can compete for a championship, as Golden State has done for the last few years.”

How will LeBron – who has won three titles in the last seven years and reached the NBA Finals the last eight years – react if the Lakers aren’t on that level this season?

“I don’t believe the only thing of success in marking a season is winning a championship,” LeBron said. “There’s only one champion. But that doesn’t mean you’re not successful.”

LeBron has made similar arguments before, and I agree with him. Championships are the most important measure of team success, but they’re not the only measure. There are plenty of ways for teams to satisfactorily grow and compete in a season.

But this sure didn’t sound like the same LeBron who said in June of the Cavaliers’ 2016 title, “It made me even more hungry to continue to try to win championships, and I still want to be in championship mode.” A key storyline in Los Angeles will be whether/when LeBron regains that hunger.

How will Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, rest of young Lakers fit with LeBron James?

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This is the latest of NBC’s NBA season preview stories, and we will post at least one a day on these pages until Oct. 16, when the NBA season kicks off. We will look at teams and topics around the NBA throughout the series, with today the young Lakers as the focus.

LeBron James changes everything.

His presence changes the trajectory of the Lakers. The team spent the past few years drafting and developing a young core of players, building a base the way most teams need to build, slowly and learning from mistakes while taking some lumps along the way.

Then the Lakers land LeBron.

It changes everything — especially for that young core.

“There’s who you expect to be and then who you are when you play with LeBron. It’s two different things,” Channing Frye said this summer about those young Lakers. “I don’t know if they truly understand what it’s like to play with him because there is no room for mistakes. Because in all actuality, he could do it himself. He could lead a team to 40 wins by himself. I think for all of them they’re going to have to have a reality check, not only them but the people around them. There’s going to say, not a growing period, but a humility.”

It’s maybe the biggest question for the Lakers this season: Will Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Kyle Kuzma be on the floor with LeBron to close games for Los Angeles this season? Or, will Luke Walton have to turn to Rajon Rondo, Lance Stephenson, Michael Beasley, and JaVale McGee?

How will each of the young Lakers fit and benefit from playing with LeBron? Let’s take a look at them.

Brandon Ingram

If one player from this Lakers’ youth movement is going to break out as an All-Star and top 20 NBA player it’s Ingram — which puts the most pressure on him to step up now. How good the Lakers are this season will start with how big a step forward Ingram takes. He needs to live up to being the No. 2 option on this team and show he can handle that role. He needs to establish himself — in his own mind and LeBron’s — so he remains the second or third best player on a potential contending team if/when the Lakers land another star next summer. (I think they will get someone, whether it’s the star they want is another question.)

Ingram impressed last season, growing into a role as a scorer and shot creator — in February he averaged 18.6 points per game with a 62.1 true shooting percentage (he strained his hip on March 1 and played just three games after, a reminder he needs to stay healthy, too). Last season, 53.8 percent of his used possessions (meaning he shot, passed or turned the ball over) came as the pick-and-roll ball handler or in isolation. He had the ball in his hands.

Ingram will have to adjust to having the ball less, LeBron will be the fulcrum of the offense most of the time, as he should be, plus this team is loaded with other players — Rondo, Ball, Stephenson, Beasley — who need touches. However, unlike much of last season, Ingram will no longer be the name at the top of opponent’s scouting reports. Ingram’s versatility should be on full display and make him especially dangerous next to LeBron. Ingram will need to draw defenders with plays off-the-ball — he was a very good spot-up shooter last season and hit 39 percent from three (although on less than two attempts per game, he needs to shoot it more) — but more importantly he needs to be the secondary scorer and guy attacking the rim with the ball when defenses are scrambling.

If the Lakers are going to thrive this season, Ingram will need to have a breakout season.

Lonzo Ball

Last season the Lakers learned that having him run a ton of pick-and-roll is not the best use of his talents. What is coming, with LeBron as the primary ball handler/shot creator could be a better fit — Lonzo will keep the ball moving and the pace up, he is a high IQ player who makes good cuts off the ball, and he and Kyle Kuzma can maybe get some second-unit time together to show their transition magic. Lonzo played off the ball a lot at UCLA (paired with Aaron Holiday, now of the Pacers) and his new role may be akin to that. Ball may be more comfortable in the Lakers’ new style.

However, Ball simply has to be a bigger scoring threat for this to work. Yes, that means his reworked jump shot needs to fall more, but Ball also shot just 49.4 percent in the restricted area — he has to finish better at the rim and in the paint.

He has to be a threat to score every time he touches the ball, or the impact of his brilliant passing is dampened. His defense and rebounding are good, better than expected, but it’s his offense that could hold him back. Beyond that, this season he needs to stay healthy, having played just 52 games last season. The fact he is going to training camp with his knee not yet fully healed from off-season meniscus surgery is not a good start.

Rondo is a Laker now, and Josh Hart has to get minutes and certainly can play the point. While the team will spin that as depth and insurance at the position, it’s also a message to Lonzo — “we’ve got your replacement right here if needed.” This is LeBron’s team now, and if Lonzo’s father or the circus around him becomes too big a distraction, well, the Lakers have a lot of depth at point guard and can jettison one of them. Same if the fit is not working on the court. There is no more growing into the role for Lonzo, he needs to step up this season.

Kyle Kuzma

The fit between LeBron and Kuzma seems like it could be natural. Kuzma thrived with Ball and Ingram as the creators by working off the ball, spacing the floor, finishing at the rim, and getting out in transition to the tune of 16.1 points and 6.3 rebounds a game, plus shooting 36.6 percent from three. With the passing of LeBron — and Ball, and Rondo, and most of this team — Kuzma could thrive in the role as a finisher.

It’s the other end of the floor that could hold Kuzma back — he has to defend better, well enough stay on the court. Kuzma’s defense was okay when his decision tree was small — close out on a spot up guy, switch onto and defend a big on a pick-and-roll — but he has to show more feel for the game and ability to read the play now. Experience should help with that, and LeBron can undoubtedly mentor Kuzma on the mental aspects of the game. This is where he needs to step up, if he doesn’t his role will shrink.

Josh Hart

While he can play the point, expect him to get time as a backup two guard behind Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. However you want to define his role, his MVP performance in Summer League showed it’s not going to be easy to keep him off the court. He can create shots for himself and finish, he shot 39.3 percent from three last season, and he’s getting better at creating some for others, too. With the plethora of ball handlers on this team roles will shift, Hart will not get to dominate the ball like in Summer League. He needs to show he can still make plays.

When Hart gets his windows, he needs to play so well it’s hard for Luke Walton to sub him out.

Svi Mykhailiuk

There are a lot of people both internally with the Lakers and around the team who think the Lakers could have a draft steal here. Maybe. He had a quality showing at Summer League — not only did he put up points, but he also showed some versatility and defense in his game — but that comes with the asterisk it’s Summer League. There is potential here, but I’m not sure how much run the rookie can really get on a win now team with a lot of veterans — vets on one-year contracts, so they want minutes and numbers — ahead of him. That said, being around the work ethic and game IQ of LeBron is going to help Mykhailiuk develop faster into whatever he will become.

Report: Warriors RFA Patrick McCaw expected to miss start of training camp

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Patrick McCaw is the NBA’s last unsigned restricted free agent.

Don’t expect a resolution before the Warriors start training camp Tuesday.

arc J. Spears of ESPN:

McCaw has a $1,712,601 qualifying offer outstanding. He could unilaterally accept that, negotiate a larger contract with Golden State or sign an offer sheet with another team.

At this point, it seems unlikely another team will sign him to an offer sheet. Why wouldn’t an interested team have done so sooner? However, the Jimmy Butler trade saga offers the possibility of a team unexpectedly opening a roster spot this late. If that team likes McCaw and has an exception or cap space available, maybe an offer sheet could happen.

Or maybe the Warriors offer more. They might want to lock up the 22-year-old for more than the one year the offer sheet would afford.

However, if McCaw accepts his offer sheet, Golden State could make him a restricted free agent again next offseason. McCaw can’t threaten a pending unrestricted free agency.

Plus, every dollar the Warriors offer McCaw counts toward their luxury-tax bill. He’s a nice player to have and develop, but at some point, the cost becomes too great.

McCaw’s qualifying offer expires Oct. 1. It’d be quite risky for him to let that expire, as he’d remain a restricted free agent – just without the qualifying offer as a fallback. So, we’ll probably see a conclusion soon. Just not before camp opens.

Rockets owner Tillman Fertitta calls luxury tax ‘horrible hindrance’

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No matter what Rockets owner Tillman Fertitta said, the luxury tax clearly loomed over Houston’s entire offseason. It’s the biggest reason the Rockets fell back in their pursuit of the Warriors.

So, how does Fertitta explain his view on the luxury tax now?

Kelly Iko of The Athletic:

Fertitta:

It’s a horrible hindrance.

And if any of y’all ever want to really understand it, go do the math on it. I mean, it’s just brutal. You can take 5 million, and all of a sudden you look up, and it costs you 20 million.

And at some point, you have to be smart, and you cannot get into the repeater tax, which happens if you’ve been in the luxury tax three years in a row. And that’s something to really look at. And at some point, you have to do some things so you never go in the repeater tax. You’re just dead in the water, and it can ruin your franchise for years. So, it’s something you have to be cognizant of.

At the same time, a team is built is on superstars. If you have your top four or five players, you can always see other players move in and out.

Because it is a chess game playing with the luxury tax. That’s why there’s only three or teams in it.

This year, to be able to make sure that we hopefully get back to the Western Conference finals, we were going to have to be in it around many millions of dollars. And I am here to win championships, and I’m not going to let 5 or 10 or 15 or 20 million dollars make a difference. Because if you do win the championship, that’s easy money back.

Now, if we’re in the luxury tax every year and we’re barely getting into the playoffs and a first-round game is a struggle, then I’m going to go find me a new general manger.

Let’s be clear: Fertitta will spend a significant amount on the Rockets this season. They’re over the luxury-tax line and will very likely remain there once the tax is assessed on the final day of the regular season. Fertitta greenlit one of the league’s largest payrolls.

But his arguments about the repeater rate are lacking.

Teams pay the repeater rate when paying the tax for at least the fourth time five seasons. It doesn’t matter how far over the tax they were in those prior seasons. So, while Houston – which has a completely clean repeater clock – wants to avoid paying the repeater rate down the road, incremental savings this season won’t matter for that. Unless the Rockets avoid the tax completely, which is highly unlikely, this season will count as a tax-paying season.

Houston’s key losses – Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute – left for one-year contracts elsewhere. Keeping them would have been expensive this year, but they would have triggered no additional costs later.

Again, re-signing those forwards would have pushed the Rockets’ payroll extremely high. It might be reasonable for Fertitta to place his spending limits where he did. But it should have nothing to do with the repeater tax.

It’s OK if Fertitta doesn’t know the exact ins and outs of the luxury tax. Rockets general manager Daryl Morey does and handles it. But the degree to which Fertitta is willing to pay the tax is so important to Houston’s title chances, it’s worth assessing everything he says about it.

“Horrible hindrance” and “just brutal” speak loudly.