The Grizzlies fired David Fizdale when he didn’t win enough while Mike Conley was out injured. Memphis refused to trade Marc Gasol. The Grizzlies even inexplicably kept Tyreke Evans past the trade deadline.
That wasn’t typical behavior for a 22-60 team.
What are expectations now?
Grizzlies owner Robert Pera, via the Chris Vernon Show:
In the NBA, there’s some things you can control. There’s some things you can’t control. There’s some luck and chance involved, too. This year, injuries set us back. Not just this year, but a couple of these years.
Assuming Marc and Mike come back healthy, I think you have a couple piece, surrounding pieces, that are younger players that are going to make a positive impact. I think we’ll get another good player in this draft. And I see no reason why we can’t return to a 50-win-plus team.
If we’re healthy, I expect us to be very competitive.
Sometimes, teams say things like this because they want to generate optimism – even when they know better. Optimism sells tickets and attracts sponsors.
But, sometimes, teams say things like this because they actually believe it. And when they believe it, it affects their decision-making.
Conley missing 70 games obviously hurt the Grizzlies last year. But I’m hardly convinced they would’ve won a meaningful amount with him healthy. And if that injury and others were totally just bad luck, they still happened and could have lasting effects. Conley will turn 31 before the season. Gasol is 33. Memphis should no longer count on them remaining healthy and productive all season.
There’s nothing wrong with the Grizzlies trying as hard as they can to compete, trying to sign veterans who’ll fill the margins around Conley and Gasol. It’s commendable, even. Pera has the right to set the team’s direction, and he can weigh the likelihood of succeeding and payoff of each potential route.
But this probably won’t go as he hopes. The margin for error with this team is just too narrow. The roster is short on both talent and cap flexibility.
Stubbornly sticking with this plan rather than trading Gasol and/or Conley will only make an eventual rebuild more difficult. It also risks Memphis not properly valuing the No. 4 pick and other long-term assets.
At this rate, the Grizzlies will likely lose too much in the short term and get stuck too long in the basement.