How much longer will the Warriors remain elite?
It’s a luxury-tax question as much as anything.
Stephen Curry unwittingly took a massive discount on his rookie-scale extension, signed when his ankle injuries were more prominent. He said he offered to take another one last season, but for some reason, Golden State turned him down.
And what about Draymond Green? He’s locked up for two more seasons, so nothing is urgent. But he’ll be eligible this offseason for a three-year, $72,080,137 contract extension ($24,026,712 annually).
According to league sources, Green will turn the extension down when it’s offered. That’s because if he earns MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or All-NBA Team honors next season, he will be eligible for a super-max contract
Sources say Green is not expected to take a pay cut on the next go-around.
The salary cap is currently $99,093,000. It’s projected to be $101 million next season and $108 million the following season. What will it be in 2020-21, when Green’s new deal would kick in? Tough to forecast that far out, but I’ll use an estimate of $111 million.
If Green wins Defensive Player or makes an All-NBA team next season – quite plausible, considering he’s arguably the NBA’s best defender – he’d be eligible for a super-max extension projected to be worth about $225 million over five years (about $45 million annually).
Failing that, he could play out the final year of his current contract and try again to to win Defensive Player of the Year or make an All-NBA team in 2019-20. If he does, he’d be eligible to re-sign with the Warriors for that exact same amount – a projected $225 million over five years (about $45 million annually).
Even if Green completes his current contract without meeting the designated-player criteria, he could re-sign with Golden State in 2020 for a projected $193 million over five years (about $39 million annually). Or he could sign with another team for a projected $143 million over four years (about $36 million annually).
All those amounts tower over his largest possible contract extension this offseason.
However, Green will be 30 when his current contract expires. Teams, including the Warriors, might not rush to max him out at that point. Even if he becomes eligible for a super-max deal, Golden State might not deem him worth it.
Still, locking into just $72,080,137 over three years this offseason is probably selling himself short. There’s plenty of room for Green to command more than that and less than his max.
So, expect this saga to continue beyond this summer.
How thorny it gets remains unknown, but Green’s 2015 free agency could be instructive. Green seemed like a candidate for a max contract, and in hindsight, would’ve been well worth it. Talks between him and Golden State broke down the first day of free agency. By that night, he agreed to a lucrative – but sub-max – five-year contract.
Green didn’t want to get shortchanged, but he didn’t push the Warriors as hard as he could’ve, either.