David Griffin says one-and-done rule in part to blame for draft “misses”

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Utah’s Donovan Mitchell may win NBA Rookie of the Year this season, and he fell to 13th on the draft board. Last year’s winner was Malcolm Brogdon, taken 36th (albeit in an odd, down year).

Last year’s All-NBA teams featured Kawhi Leonard (drafted 15th), Giannis Antetokounmpo (15th), Rudy Gobert (27th), Jimmy Butler (30th), Draymond Green (35th), and Isaiah Thomas (60th).

That’s a lot of the league’s best players who have fallen down the draft board out of the top 10, and occasionally into the second round. There have always been draft busts (Michael Olowokandi,  Darko Milicic, it’s a long list) and guys who slipped deep into the draft that shouldn’t have (Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, etc.), but are there more of them now?

Rockets GM Daryl Morey said at the Sloan Conference a week ago that “as a league, we are getting worse at drafting.” Former Cavaliers GM David Griffin agrees. And he thinks he knows the reason — the provision in the one-and-done rule that David Stern wanted, keeping NBA scouts from going to high school gyms. Griffin explained his this on Mark Deeks’ “Give Me Sport” NBA podcast (as transcribed at The Athletic).

“(Fifteen years ago) you weren’t seeing a preponderance of guys going later than, say, nine or 10 that were moving the needle. And now you’ve got Donovan Mitchell [drafted 13th] going later in the draft. And you’ve had Giannis [drafted 15th] go later in the draft, and Rudy Gobert [drafted 27th]…

“What’s happened is because of the proliferation of the one-and-done, teams are making more mistakes in drafting than we really ever have because we know less about the kids than we ever have. Back when you could come directly out of high school, because everyone was going to be in a situation where they could declare out of high school, we were allowed in high school gyms. And what that meant was we saw far more of the kids during that year leading up to the draft than we do now.”

It’s easy to make the call on an Anthony Davis or Karl-Anthony Towns, taking them No. 1 is fairly obvious. The guys at the very top have separated themselves. The challenges come farther down the draft board when the teams need more information.

Analytics have a role in drafting, but more than anything scouts and GMs still need to watch a kid play. A lot. The more time watching him — in person — the better. In practice, in games, everywhere they can. While Stern didn’t like the optics of NBA scouts flooding high schools to watch guys, in solving that problem he created another one.

The NBA seems to be coming around on the idea of letting youth go directly from high schools to the NBA again — teams are far better equipped to develop players than they were 15-20 years ago, including using the G-League — but there are a lot of details to work out. It’s not clear exactly how it will go down. But one of the benefits will be to give teams more information, more eyeballs in person on games, than they had before.

Suns, Crowder agree he will sit out training camp while they seek a trade

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Jae Crowder wants out of Phoenix and the Suns have been looking for a trade to accommodate that.

It hasn’t come together, so the Suns and Crowder agreed he should sit out training camp while they find one (this team does not need another distraction in camp).

We knew this was coming because Crowder himself announced it a couple of days ago. While he deleted the Tweet, nothing ever completely disappears online.

Two quick thoughts on this news.

First, it means Cameron Johnson will start at the four, something that was likely anyway as the Suns look to add shooting to help space the floor.

Second, this news does not help the Suns’ leverage in getting a trade. It’s understandable that Crowder didn’t want to be in camp and that the Suns didn’t want the distraction, but now everyone knows the pressure on the Suns to get a deal done and they will lowball their offer.

There are a few potential landing spots out there. Crowder hinted online he would welcome a return to Miami, and the Heat need help at the four after P.J. Tucker left for Philly. The Heat would base a trade around Duncan Robinson, but to make the salaries match the Suns would have to throw in another player — Dario Saric, Landry Shamet, Cameron Payne, Torey Craig or after Jan. 15  — and that seems unlikely.

Atlanta, Dallas, Chicago, Boston (but it’s tough to make the salaries match up), and even a team like Minnesota could work. The challenge is the Suns are a win-now team and will want a player who can help them this season and all those teams are in the same space. Right now there may not be an offer available. As camps open and teams start to understand what they do and don’t have, a deal could come together.

Crowder will be home waiting for that to happen, not with the Suns team.

Giannis Antetokounmpo says Stephen Curry is the best player in the world

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Giannis Antetokounmpo is at the top of pretty much every “best player in the world” list right now.

Except his own.

For Antetokounmpo, the best player in the world is the one that leads his team to the title, so today, it is Stephen Curry (hat tip to Lance Allen of NBC Milwaukee).

It’s easy to see where Antetokounmpo is coming from, but basketball is a team game. The best player may not be on the best team, despite his skill set, and that team may not win. Curry was spectacular in leading the Warriors to their fourth banner since he arrived, he’s near the top of the best in the world list, but it’s not all about winning.

The takeaway from what Antetokounmpo said is how much he wants to win — he wants a second ring.

The Bucks enter the season as one of the favorites to win that ring, but it’s going to take a lot of things going right for that to happen.

Including Antetokounmpo showing he is the best player in the world.

 

Is Matisse Thybulle ready for a big step forward with 76ers?

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Matisse Thybulle brings a valuable NBA skill to the table — he is an elite perimeter defender. Two-time All-Defensive Team in three years in the league.

But when the 76ers got up against Miami in the playoffs, Thybulle’s role shrank dramatically. While Doc Rivers needed his defense, Thybulle’s lack of an offensive game became a problem — the Heat largely ignored him and helped off him, allowing Miami to muck up the Philly offense (he was limited in the Toronto series because he was not vaccinated and could not play in road games). The 76ers tried to solve that problem this offseason by bringing in DeAnthony Melton, Danuel House and P.J. Tucker — solid role-playing defenders who can contribute on offense, too.

Thybulle wants to be part of the solution, too, and told Keith Pompey of the Philadelphia Inquirer he spent the summer focused on his offensive game.

“I’m really proud of what I did,” Thybulle said of his offseason. “I’ve worked harder than I’ve worked. And I had a meeting with [Sixers coach Doc Rivers] early this week and was telling him I feel more bought in than I’ve been before.”

No doubt Thybulle put in the work, we will find out soon if it paid off — and if that will get Thybulle paid.

Thybulle is entering a contract year — the 76ers can extend him up until Oct. 18, after which he would become a restricted free agent next summer. Thybulle said his goal is to remain in Philadelphia (and he’d like an extension).

“At this point, I would always want to stay in Philly,” he said. “And if it’s up to me, that’s always going to be my choice.

“But considering that I’ve realized the reality of how far out of my control it is, if I do get traded or something does end up happening, I can look at myself in the mirror at the end of the day.”

With a win-now Sixers team, Daryl Morey may be in a wait-and-see place with Thybulle, letting the market set his price next offseason. If he signs now, it will likely be on a team-friendly deal (but maybe one that still works for the 25-year-old).

If Thybulle gets on the court this season and shows an improved offensive game, one where he can make teams pay for helping off him, his price goes up and there may be multiple teams bidding for his services next summer. And Doc Rivers would be happy in the short term.

It’s up to Thybulle to prove it now.

 

Markelle Fultz will miss start of training camp, at least, with broken toe

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The basketball gods continue to turn their backs on Markelle Fultz.

A torn ACL had limited him to 26 games over the past two seasons, but he was healthy and ramping up to a larger role this season with a young and interesting Magic team. Then came the news he fractured his left big toe during a training session. As a result, he will be out for at least the start of training camp, the team announced. From the official announcement:

“He has been placed in a walking boot and his return to play will depend on how he responds to rehabilitation and treatment. Fultz suffered the injury during a preseason workout prior to returning to Orlando and imaging confirmed the fracture.

He will not need surgery, according to the team.

Fultz was set to split point guard duties with Cole Anthony, this injury means RJ Hampton could see more run at the point for now. Fultz should be able to return either during the end of the preseason or early in the season.

Fultz was the No.1 pick in the 2017 NBA Draft but never found his footing with the 76ers (in part due to injury). However, since getting out of that spotlight and allowed to develop in Orlando he’s been a solid rotation point guard when healthy. Last season in 18 games he averaged 10.8 points and 5.5 assists a game, and while he’s still not an efficient shooter he can run a team.

How Anthony and, eventually, Fultz will work off the ball as rookie Paolo Banchero gets the opportunity to create more offense will be just one of the interesting things to watch with this Magic team this year. We’ll have to wait a little while to see Fultz.