In light of Gordon Hayward leaving the Jazz for the Celtics, Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN discussed the new Collective Bargaining Agreement – specifically bringing up Giannis Antetokounmpo, whose Bucks just completed a mangled process for hiring a new general manager.
It just shows how hard it is at that mid-size market.
There are plenty of small-market owners and mid-size GMs who said, “We didn’t go far enough. I can’t keep guys.”
Milwaukee is going to go through this with the Greek Freak. That day is coming, right?, where he’s going to look and say, “Where is this organization? What are they doing here?” You don’t think Giannis has been watching what went on there for the last several months, of what they allowed to go on with the front office? He’s watching it, and the clock has started. Everybody in the league is trying to figure out how they’re going to get him out of there. That has started.
And so, Milwaukee – I don’t want to hear in three years or four years when they lose him, “Jeez, we can’t” – Utah did everything right, everything right from an organization. They lost their guy. And you look at a team like Milwaukee and say financially they’ll be able to do more. But you better have your organization in great shape, because then you have no chance with a guy like that.
The Jazz didn’t do everything right. In 2014, they forced Hayward – then a restricted free agent – to bring back an offer sheet. He did, a 3+1 max deal from Charlotte, which Utah matched. Had the Jazz just given Hayward a five-year deal outright, he wouldn’t have even been a free agent this summer. Whether they should have known to do that in 2014 is an interesting question. In hindsight, it was clearly a miscalculation.
But Wojnarowski’s larger point stands. Utah did a lot right, including drafting Rudy Gobert at No. 27 and hiring Quin Snyder. It wasn’t enough. Smaller markets have less margin for error.
Don’t tell that to Antetokounmpo, though.
With Wojnarowski’s comments swirling, Antetokounmpo – who once said he wanted to play for the Bucks forever – took to Twitter:
A lot of young players believe they’ll stay with one team their entire careers. It rarely works out that way.
Could Antetokounmpo be an exception? Sure.
But he might also wake up one day and realize he never picked the Bucks. His loyalty was founded on them picking him in a draft system that removes choice from labor. Even if he’s commitment-oriented, if he could have originally chosen a franchise to devote himself to, what are the odds it would have been Milwaukee? Just because the Bucks have seemingly treated him well, that doesn’t mean he should remain beholden. The Jazz treated Hayward great. He also made the forward-looking decision that the Celtics would be better for him in coming years than Utah would have been. Antetokounmpo might someday make a similar determination.
But the Bucks ought to feel good Antetokounmpo keeps pledging his loyalty to them. The more committed he feels now, the less likely he is to leave later.
Plus, Milwaukee could have an advantage in retaining Antetokounmpo the Jazz didn’t with Hayward – the new designated veteran player.
If Hayward made an All-NBA team this season, he might still be in Utah.
If Antetokounmpo makes an All-NBA team in either of the next two years, he’ll be eligible for a designated-veteran-player extension in 2020. That could pay him a starting salary of 35% of the cap with 8% raises over five years. Another team could offer just 25% of the cap with 5% raises. It’d be hard for Antetokounmpo to turn that down.
As we’ve seen with DeMarcus Cousins and Jimmy Butler, teams might hesitate to commit so much money to sub-superstars. But Antetokounmpo might be a superstar by 2020. Even if he’s not, he’ll be just 26 when that extension would kick in. Because he entered the league so young, the concerns about Cousins and Butler aging poorly by the end of super-max extensions don’t apply to Antetokounmpo. So, the Bucks will probably offer a designated-veteran-player extension if they can rather than preemptively trade him.
Maybe Antetokounmpo remains loyal to Milwaukee regardless. But that extra money sure wouldn’t hurt.