Dario Saric becomes odds-on favorite to win Rookie of the Year

By Dan FeldmanMar 9, 2017, 1:55 PM EST

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Will Joel Embiid still win Rookie of the Year despite playing just 31 games before being shut down for the season?

It’d be historic if he does, and I think he has a pretty good chance.

Bovada doesn’t believe bettors will see his case so strongly.

The gambling website favors fellow 76ers rookie Dario Saric over the field for Rookie of the Year. The full odds:

Dario Saric (76ers) 1/2
Malcolm Brogdon (Bucks) 3/1
Joel Embiid (76ers) 15/4
Marquese Chriss (Suns) 10/1
Buddy Hield (Kings) 10/1

Remember, these aren’t meant to accurately reflect the true odds. The intent is to maximize Bovada’s profit, likely by spreading bets across multiple players reasonably evenly. So, odds like these usually reveal no wise choices.

But I’d bet on Embiid if I were a gambler. I think he has about a 55% chance of winning Rookie of the Year, making him a huge overlay.

Embiid was just so good in his limited minutes, and the 2016 draft class is off to a historically bad start. Even with Saric hot lately, conditions are ripe for Embiid to deserve Rookie of the Year.

Here’s how many times a rookie scored 20 points in a win this season:

Joel Embiid 11
Dario Saric 3
Jamal Murray 2
Eight others each 1

That’s not the ultimate stat for every situation, but I find it telling here — especially considering Embiid is an excellent defender. Embiid just impacted winning more in 31 games far more than any other rookie has has in a larger sample, to the point I doubt anyone else will catch him.

But will Rookie of the Year voters see it the same way?

I believe enough will. Some might knock him down a peg, but Embiid will wind up on many ballots. And there’s no clear alternative. Saric, Malcolm Brogdon, Murray, Brandon Ingram and Jaylen Brown will split votes.

That said, this there’s no precedent for an award race like this. Perhaps, it’s prudent to be conservative with betting on it.

Don’t want to take the risk on Embiid at 15/4? OK. Just don’t bet on Saric at 1/2. That’s awful value.

Damian Lillard says Trail Blazers shut him down, talks loyalty to Portland

By Kurt HelinMar 31, 2023, 9:17 PM EDT

Players feel the wrath of fans for load management in the NBA, but more often than not it’s a team’s medical and training staff — driven by analytics and the use of wearable sensors — that sit a player. Guys don’t get to the NBA not wanting to compete.

Case in point, Damian Lillard. The Trail Blazers have shut him down for the rest of the season, but he told Dan Patrick on the Dan Patrick Show that it was a team call, not his.

“I wouldn’t say it’s my decision at all. I think maybe the team protecting me from myself… Every time that I’ve had some type injury like that kind of get irritated or aggravated or something like that, it’s come from just like a heavy load, and stress, and just, you know, going out there and trying to go above and beyond. So, you know, I would say just; there is something there, and also them just trying to protect me from myself as well.”

Maybe it’s a little about protecting Lillard at age 32 — who played at an All-NBA level this season — but it’s more about lottery odds.

Portland and Orlando are tied for the league’s fifth and sixth-worst records. The team with the fifth worst record has a 10.5% chance at the No.1 pick, the sixth worst is 9%. More than that, the fifth-worst record has a 42% chance of moving up into the top four at the draft lottery, for the sixth seed that is 37.2%. Not a huge bump in the odds, but the chances are still better for the fifth seed than the sixth, so the Trail Blazers as an organization are going for it.

Lillard also talked about his loyalty to Portland, which is partly tied to how he wants to win a ring — the way Dirk Nowitzki and Giannis Antetokounmpo did, with the team and city that drafted them.

“I just have a way that I want to get things done for myself… I just have my stance on what I want to see happen, but in this business, you just never know.”

Other teams are watching Lillard, but they have seen this movie before. Nothing will happen until Lillard asks for a trade and he has yet to show any inclination to do so.

But he’s got time to think about everything as he is not taking the court again this season.

Seven-time All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge officially retires

By Kurt HelinMar 31, 2023, 5:56 PM EDT

Mike Stobe/Getty Images

LaMarcus Aldridge retired once due to a heart condition (Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome), back in 2021. That time it didn’t take, he came back to the then-a-super-team Nets and showed there was something in the tank averaging 12.9 points (on 55% shooting), 5.5 rebounds and a block a game. However, the Nets did not bring him back this season (leaning into Nic Claxton) and no other offers were forthcoming.

Friday, Aldridge made it official and retired.

In the words of TB12, you only get one big, emotional retirement… so, on that note…I’m thankful for all the memories, family and friends I made throughout my career. It was one hell of a ride and I enjoyed every min! 12

— LaMarcus Aldridge (@aldridge_12) March 31, 2023

Aldridge had a career that will earn him Hall of Fame consideration: 19.1 points a game over 16 seasons, five-time All-NBA, seven-time All-Star, and one of the faces of the Portland Trail Blazers during his prime years in the Pacific Northwest. Teammates and former coaches (including Gregg Popovich in San Antonio) called him a consummate professional after his initial retirement.

This time Aldridge got to announce his retirement on his terms, which is about as good an exit as there is.

Report: NBA minimum draft age will not change in new CBA, one-and-done remains

By Kurt HelinMar 31, 2023, 1:38 PM EDT

While the NBA — representing the owners — and the National Basketball Players Association (NBPA) continue last-minute negotiations on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) before an opt-out deadline Friday night at midnight, one point of contention is off the table:

The NBA draft age will not change in the new CBA, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN. The NBA one-and-done rule will remain in place.

ESPN Sources: As NBA and NBPA pursue a new CBA ahead of tonight’s opt-out deadline, a deal wouldn’t include a change in the minimum draft age rule ending the “One-and-Done” era. High school players will still need to wait a full year beyond graduation to enter future drafts. pic.twitter.com/VL0UEZpBmT

— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) March 31, 2023

The NBA one-and-done rule is unpopular with fans and college coaches (and, of course, players coming up). NBA Commissioner Adam Silver had worked to eliminate that restriction saying it was unfair, but he could not get it done.

There wasn’t much motivation from either side to make a move. From the players’ union perspective, lowering the draft eligibility age to 18 would bring more young players in to develop in the league and take away roster spots from veterans (and the union is made up of those veterans, not undrafted players). The union has suggested ways to keep veterans on the roster (possibly a roster expansion) as mentors, but a deal could not be reached. As for the teams, plenty of GMs would prefer an extra year to evaluate players, especially with them going up against better competition in college/G-League/Overtime Elite/overseas.

There are other impediments to a CBA deal, such as the details around a mid-season NBA tournament, the configuration of the luxury tax, veteran contract extension language, a games-played minimum to qualify for the league’s end-of-season awards.

If the sides do not reach a deal by midnight, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said the league would likely opt out of the current CBA, meaning it would end on June 30. The two sides would have until then to reach a deal on a new CBA to avoid a lockout (although they could go into September before it starts to mess with the NBA regular season calendar and not just Summer League).

Timberwolves big man Naz Reid out indefinitely with fractured wrist

By Kurt HelinMar 31, 2023, 1:12 PM EDT

Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images

UPDATE: Naz Reid had surgery on that fractured wrist and will be out six weeks, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.

That means he is not only out for the rest of the regular season but likely the first couple of rounds of the playoffs, if the Timberwolves can make it that far.

——————

This sucks for a Timberwolves team finding its groove.

Part of that groove was the offensive spark of big man Naz Ried off the bench, but now he will be out indefinitely with a fractured wrist, the Timberwolves announced. From the official release:

An MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging) taken yesterday at Mayo Clinic Square by Dr. Kelechi Okoroha on Reid revealed a left scaphoid fracture. He will be out indefinitely and further updates on his progress will be provided when available.

A scaphoid fracture involves one of the small bones at the base of the hand that connects the wrist and fingers. Reid injured his hand on this dunk attempt against the Suns, he instinctively used his left hand to help break the fall and it took the weight of the landing.

🚑 Naz Reid reportedly suffered a broken wrist on this dunk attempt last night#Timberwolves #nbaitalia pic.twitter.com/uOcgd4W1Wh

— NBA News 24 (@nbaitalianews24) March 31, 2023

Impressively, and despite being in pain, Reid played through the injury.

Reid developed into the sixth man, spark plug roll for the Timberwolves behind starters Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. In his last five games, Reid averaged 18.8 points on 59.1% shooting (including 45% from 3 on four attempts a night) and grabbed 5.2 rebounds in his 22 minutes.

Reid is a free agent this offseason. The Timberwolves want to keep him and have had talks with him, but he will have plenty of suitors.

His loss will be a blow to Minnesota, especially heading into crucial games down the stretch — starting with the Lakers Friday night (a team Reid had some big games against) — and into the postseason. Expect coach Chris Finch to stagger Towns and Gobert a little more, and he can turn to Nate Knight or Luka Garza off the bench, but their role would be limited (especially come the playoffs).

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