51 Questions: Will Goran Dragic thrive with offense on his shoulders in Miami?

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We continue PBT’s 2016-17 NBA preview series, 51 Questions. For the past few weeks, and through the start of the NBA season, we tackle 51 questions we cannot wait to see answered during the upcoming NBA season. We will delve into one almost every day between now and the start of the season. Today:

Will Goran Dragic thrive with the offense on his shoulders in Miami?

The Miami Heat are Goran Dragic’s team now.

At least they are on the offensive end. Dwayne Wade took his slashing-to-the-rim game back home to Chicago. Chris Bosh will not be in the high post because he will not be cleared by Miami Heat doctors to play, leaving the two sides at an impasse.

That put’s the Heat offense in the pick-and-roll loving hands of Dragic, who along with Hassan Whiteside will be asked to lead Miami. That duo — and just re-signed Tyler Johnson — will be surrounded by a bunch of players on one-year (or one plus an option) deals such as Dion Waiters, Wayne Ellington, Derrick Williams, James Johnson, and Luke Babbitt.

Expect coach Erik Spoelstra to turn Dragic loose in an offense that may lead the NBA in drive-and-kick plays.

In the Heat’s first preseason game (which is an insanely small sample size, but it’s what we’ve got), Dragic pushed the ball in transition at every opportunity, then raced into the paint with the ball, which created open three-point looks. Dragic has to be surrounded by shooters to be successful, and in that first game the Heat were 11-of-23 from beyond the arc. The Heat were moving the ball and making the extra pass, creating good looks. Also in that game, Whiteside had 16 points, seven rebounds, and two blocks — in the first quarter. He was everywhere.

The pieces around Dragic better fit the style of play he prefers than at any point since he came to Miami, that showed in their one game. They are younger, more athletic and explosive than they have been in a few years. The question becomes can they sustain this level of play? Will they get consistent play from Waiters, Babbitt, and Williams? Will Justise Winslow show off an improved jumper? And can the Heat keep doing this when they play in meaningful games where they will see far more talent on the court (John Wall skipped this preseason game, for example)?

Without Bosh, who is the Heat’s go-to scorer?

What the Heat really need this season is the 2013-14 version of Dragic, the one turned loose by Jeff Hornacek in Phoenix who averaged 20.3 points and 5.9 assists per game. The one who shot 40 percent from three and had a true shooting percentage of 60.4 percent (well above the league average). The guy who played at an All-Star level. The one the Heat thought they signed.

That Dragic has been missing for a couple of seasons now, due to a combination of factors including having the ball in his hands less (Wade certainly required touches). At age 30, it’s fair to question if we will see that Dragic again ever.

If peak Dragic suits up in Miami this season and young players buy in, this is a team that can put up a lot of points and potentially contend for one of the final playoff slots in the East. But with so many questions in South Florida, it’s hard to bet on that happening. More than likely, they are on the outside looking in.

But Dragic may end up being a fantasy steal this season.

Damian Lillard says Trail Blazers shut him down, talks loyalty to Portland

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Players feel the wrath of fans for load management in the NBA, but more often than not it’s a team’s medical and training staff — driven by analytics and the use of wearable sensors — that sit a player. Guys don’t get to the NBA not wanting to compete.

Case in point, Damian Lillard. The Trail Blazers have shut him down for the rest of the season, but he told Dan Patrick on the Dan Patrick Show that it was a team call, not his.

“I wouldn’t say it’s my decision at all. I think maybe the team protecting me from myself… Every time that I’ve had some type injury like that kind of get irritated or aggravated or something like that, it’s come from just like a heavy load, and stress, and just, you know, going out there and trying to go above and beyond. So, you know, I would say just; there is something there, and also them just trying to protect me from myself as well.”

Maybe it’s a little about protecting Lillard at age 32 — who played at an All-NBA level this season — but it’s more about lottery odds.

Portland and Orlando are tied for the league’s fifth and sixth-worst records. The team with the fifth worst record has a 10.5% chance at the No.1 pick, the sixth worst is 9%. More than that, the fifth-worst record has a 42% chance of moving up into the top four at the draft lottery, for the sixth seed that is 37.2%. Not a huge bump in the odds, but the chances are still better for the fifth seed than the sixth, so the Trail Blazers as an organization are going for it.

Lillard also talked about his loyalty to Portland, which is partly tied to how he wants to win a ring — the way Dirk Nowitzki and Giannis Antetokounmpo did, with the team and city that drafted them.

“I just have a way that I want to get things done for myself… I just have my stance on what I want to see happen, but in this business, you just never know.”

Other teams are watching Lillard, but they have seen this movie before. Nothing will happen until Lillard asks for a trade and he has yet to show any inclination to do so.

But he’s got time to think about everything as he is not taking the court again this season.

Seven-time All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge officially retires

Indiana Pacers v Brooklyn Nets
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LaMarcus Aldridge retired once due to a heart condition (Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome), back in 2021. That time it didn’t take, he came back to the then-a-super-team Nets and showed there was something in the tank averaging 12.9 points (on 55% shooting), 5.5 rebounds and a block a game. However, the Nets did not bring him back this season (leaning into Nic Claxton) and no other offers were forthcoming.

Friday, Aldridge made it official and retired.

Aldridge had a career that will earn him Hall of Fame consideration: 19.1 points a game over 16 seasons, five-time All-NBA, seven-time All-Star, and one of the faces of the Portland Trail Blazers during his prime years in the Pacific Northwest. Teammates and former coaches (including Gregg Popovich in San Antonio) called him a consummate professional after his initial retirement.

This time Aldridge got to announce his retirement on his terms, which is about as good an exit as there is.

 

 

Report: NBA minimum draft age will not change in new CBA, one-and-done remains

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While the NBA — representing the owners — and the National Basketball Players Association (NBPA) continue last-minute negotiations on a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) before an opt-out deadline Friday night at midnight, one point of contention is off the table:

The NBA draft age will not change in the new CBA, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN. The NBA one-and-done rule will remain in place.

The NBA one-and-done rule is unpopular with fans and college coaches (and, of course, players coming up). NBA Commissioner Adam Silver had worked to eliminate that restriction saying it was unfair, but he could not get it done.

There wasn’t much motivation from either side to make a move. From the players’ union perspective, lowering the draft eligibility age to 18 would bring more young players in to develop in the league and take away roster spots from veterans (and the union is made up of those veterans, not undrafted players). The union has suggested ways to keep veterans on the roster (possibly a roster expansion) as mentors, but a deal could not be reached. As for the teams, plenty of GMs would prefer an extra year to evaluate players, especially with them going up against better competition in college/G-League/Overtime Elite/overseas.

There are other impediments to a CBA deal, such as the details around a mid-season NBA tournament, the configuration of the luxury tax, veteran contract extension language, a games-played minimum to qualify for the league’s end-of-season awards.

If the sides do not reach a deal by midnight, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said the league would likely opt out of the current CBA, meaning it would end on June 30. The two sides would have until then to reach a deal on a new CBA to avoid a lockout (although they could go into September before it starts to mess with the NBA regular season calendar and not just Summer League).

 

Timberwolves big man Naz Reid out indefinitely with fractured wrist

Minnesota Timberwolves v Phoenix Suns
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UPDATE: Naz Reid had surgery on that fractured wrist and will be out six weeks, reports Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN.

That means he is not only out for the rest of the regular season but likely the first couple of rounds of the playoffs, if the Timberwolves can make it that far.

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This sucks for a Timberwolves team finding its groove.

Part of that groove was the offensive spark of big man Naz Ried off the bench, but now he will be out indefinitely with a fractured wrist, the Timberwolves announced. From the official release:

An MRI (Magnetic Resonance Imaging) taken yesterday at Mayo Clinic Square by Dr. Kelechi Okoroha on Reid revealed a left scaphoid fracture. He will be out indefinitely and further updates on his progress will be provided when available.

A scaphoid fracture involves one of the small bones at the base of the hand that connects the wrist and fingers. Reid injured his hand on this dunk attempt against the Suns, he instinctively used his left hand to help break the fall and it took the weight of the landing.

Impressively, and despite being in pain, Reid played through the injury.

Reid developed into the sixth man, spark plug roll for the Timberwolves behind starters Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. In his last five games, Reid averaged 18.8 points on 59.1% shooting (including 45% from 3 on four attempts a night) and grabbed 5.2 rebounds in his 22 minutes.

Reid is a free agent this offseason. The Timberwolves want to keep him and have had talks with him, but he will have plenty of suitors.

His loss will be a blow to Minnesota, especially heading into crucial games down the stretch — starting with the Lakers Friday night (a team Reid had some big games against) — and into the postseason. Expect coach Chris Finch to stagger Towns and Gobert a little more, and he can turn to Nate Knight or Luka Garza off the bench, but their role would be limited (especially come the playoffs).