Consider this the conventional wisdom of where your team will be at this season.
Unless you like to place a wager now and again, then look at this as a chance to make a few bucks because the Las Vegas books and the public underestimate/overestimate your team.
The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas put out its under/over win totals for the NBA this season. Below, we’ll get into where I think you might be able to make a few bucks, but first, here are the numbers:
|Golden State Warriors||66.5|
|Los Angeles Clippers||53.5|
|Los Angeles Lakers||24.5|
|New Orleans Pelicans||36.5|
|New York Knicks||38.5|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||45.5|
|Portland Trail Blazers||46.5|
|San Antonio Spurs||56.5|
• Two teams where I think the number is low and you could win money betting the over: Brooklyn and Indiana. The Nets won 21 games last season and they made a big upgrade at the point with Jeremy Lin, plus Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is both a year older and healthy. The Nets aren’t going to be good, but I think they can win 25-27 games or so in a not-so-stacked East. As for Indiana, I’m high I them and think they can will win in the high 40s at least, easily getting past the 43.5 out there. Denver at 34.5 may be a little low as well, if you think they can come together and will not trade their veterans. If you think Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan can repeat their career years, a few bucks on the Raptors would be smart (but I wouldn’t do it).
• It’s tempting to say the Warriors are too low at 66.5, but stay away from that bet. This is a team that is going to start relatively slowly as they integrate Kevin Durant into an altered roster, plus they are not going to make the same push for the record they did a year ago. I think they will be close to that 66 win number.
• The one I might bet under is Portland. They will still be a playoff team, but they won 44 games last season and are predicted at 46.5 this season — it would require Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum to stay fairly healthy and for Evan Turner to be good. I’m not sold on the latter.