NBA draft lottery odds, visualized

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What are each team’s odds of getting each pick in tonight’s NBA draft lottery?

Trades and pick swaps have tangled the outcomes more than ever.

Thankfully, Richard Yannow of A Student of the Game wrote a script that accounts for all the complications and produces accurate lottery odds. His method accounts for the following conditions:

  • The 76ers get the Lakers’ pick if it falls outside the top three.
  • The 76ers can swap picks with the Kings.
  • The Celtics get the Nets’ pick.
  • The Nuggets get the higher of their own  and the Knicks’ pick.
  • The Raptors get the lower of the Nuggets’ and Knicks’ picks.
  • The Suns get the Wizards pick if it falls outside the top three.
  • The Bulls get the Kings’ pick if it lands No. 11.

Using Yannow’s results, here are the odds for each team:

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If you notice, the 76ers’ odds add up to 144.2%. That’s because there’s a 44.2% chance they get two picks. What are the odds of which two picks? Yannow has a cool pie chart to show the likelihood of each combination. Check it out.

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When the odds are listed as 0.0%, that pick is possible for that team but the chances round to 0.0%.