What are each team’s odds of getting each pick in tonight’s NBA draft lottery?
Trades and pick swaps have tangled the outcomes more than ever.
Thankfully, Richard Yannow of A Student of the Game wrote a script that accounts for all the complications and produces accurate lottery odds. His method accounts for the following conditions:
- The 76ers get the Lakers’ pick if it falls outside the top three.
- The 76ers can swap picks with the Kings.
- The Celtics get the Nets’ pick.
- The Nuggets get the higher of their own and the Knicks’ pick.
- The Raptors get the lower of the Nuggets’ and Knicks’ picks.
- The Suns get the Wizards pick if it falls outside the top three.
- The Bulls get the Kings’ pick if it lands No. 11.
Using Yannow’s results, here are the odds for each team:
If you notice, the 76ers’ odds add up to 144.2%. That’s because there’s a 44.2% chance they get two picks. What are the odds of which two picks? Yannow has a cool pie chart to show the likelihood of each combination. Check it out.
When the odds are listed as 0.0%, that pick is possible for that team but the chances round to 0.0%.