With the tip-off of another NBA season, we bring you another edition of NBC ProBasketballTalks weekly Power Rankings. Usually these will come out on Mondays, but for the first week of the season it’s coming out when everything gets started.
The Warriors begin defense of their title on top of the rankings, but any of the top six teams could win the title in my eyes. The Sixers begin the season in the 30th spot and I fear they will spend much of the season there despite their new star rookie.
1. Warriors (last season 67-15). The defending champions get their rings and a banner Tuesday and deserve to start atop the rankings. That said, they have looked a little sloppy through the preseason and will be without Steve Kerr for a little while. But if you think last season was “lucky” or a fluke you are dead wrong. This team can repeat.
2. Thunder (45-37). Kevin Durant has looked like his old self. Russell Westbrook is praising the room he finds to operate in Billy Donovan’s offense and dropped a triple-double. And this is just the preseason. Both were very efficient and if they continue to be watch out. There are questions to answer — how exactly do they plan to use Enes Kanter and hide his defense? — but this team is back to being a legit contender.
3. Spurs (55-27). There is no truth to the rumor Gregg Popovich is going to rest Tim Duncan for the opener. While like everyone else I love the LaMarcus Aldridge pickup, I think the key for the Spurs in Tony Parker — he has looked far too close to average going back to the playoffs last season. The Spurs opening the season against the Thunder Wednesday will be fun.
4. Cavaliers (53-29). I’m picking them to be the best team in the NBA come June, but they start a little lower due to injuries — specifically Kyrie Irving. Also not having Tristan Thompson in camp dings them here. But they have LeBron James, and he will play opening night, and that’s all that really matters.
5. Clippers (56-26). They will have one of the top three offenses in the NBA, the question is can they improve their pedestrian defense from last season? They have changed their pick-and-roll coverage in the preseason, leaving DeAndre Jordan (and other bigs) back more to protect the paint, if it works this team becomes far more dangerous.
6. Rockets (56-26). If you’re looking for a breakout player during the preseason it might backup center Clint Capela in Houston. He’s been a stud. Which will be key because nobody expects Dwight Howard to be healthy for 82, and now they can rest him more over the course of the season without the big drop off.
7. Grizzlies (55-27). Meet the new Grizzlies, same as the old Grizzlies. I watched a couple of their preseason games and saw a grinding, defensive team that struggled with its outside shot (Matt Barnes in particular). They are good, they are dangerous, but while any of the six teams above them could win the title this season, above Memphis is where I see the cut-off line right now.
8. Heat (37-45). Look for a fast start to the season, in part because they have a soft schedule loaded with home games (14 of the first 20). If Hassan Whiteside can continue to be a stud and rookie Justise Winslow fits seamlessly into the rotation, this team could finish in the top three in the East.
9. Bulls (50-32). This may be the most interesting team in the NBA this season because of the questions that surround them: How will Derrick Rose play? Can he stay healthy? How does new coach Fred Holberg handle the front court rotations with Pau Gasol, Joakim Noah, Nikola Mitotic, and Taj Gibson? And their defense can’t be as bad as it looked in the preseason, right?
10. Wizards (46-36). Randy Wittman has committed to small ball — their fours are launching threes — and that will give John Wall room to operate (as will having a healthy Bradley Beal next to him). Not only is this team looking to take a step forward, if they are going to have a shot at Kevin Durant next summer they need to show him he can walk in the door and win with their play this season.
11. Raptors (49-33). Their offense looked improved under a thinner and more dynamic Kyle Lowry in the preseason. This is a team that could surprise, especially if DeMarre Carroll returns their defense to something teams must respect.
12. Hawks (60-22). Last season one of the reasons they won 60 games was being lucky with health, but they don’t start the season that way with Kent Bazemore starting and Thabo Sefolosha coming off the bench while still trying to recover from his run-in with the NYPD. Expect Atlanta to climb the rankings the first few weeks thanks to a soft schedule.
13. Pelicans (45-37). I like to think this team will take a step forward under Alvin Gentry, and Anthony Davis will be in the MVP conversation, but they are banged up to start the season. No Tyreke Evans or Norris Cole, plus Jrue Holiday can only go 15 minutes a night. That and a tough schedule could mean a slow start.
14. Jazz (38-44). Coach Quin Snyder did such a good job developing players and building a system that he’s had to spend part of preseason tamping down the expectations. Utah is a trendy pick to make the playoffs and Rudy Gobert is expected to be in the hunt for Defensive Player of the Year. If the Jazz play like they did the second half of last season both those things can happen.
15. Bucks (41-41). They became everybody’s favorite up-and-coming last season then added Greg Monroe this summer. That said, I don’t expect a huge leap because they lack outside shooting and it will mess with their spacing. Also, I expect Greivis Vasquez to start getting key minutes late in games over Michael Carter-Williams sooner rather than later.
< 16. Suns (39-43). After five seasons out of the playoffs, owner Robert Sarver has put pressure on everyone to end that drought. They brought in Tyson Chandler to improve their defense, and look out for T.J. Warren to have a bit of a breakout season.
17. Mavericks (50-32). I don’t like to read much into the preseason, but going 0-7 with the worst offense in the Association is still a bit concerning. Getting Wesley Matthews back sooner than expected should help those numbers from becoming a season-long trend.
18. Pistons (32-50). I’m predicting this team climbs up and makes the playoffs in the East behind a revamped offense that puts up points. Stanley Johnson has impressed and is a dark horse ROY candidate, and watch Reggie Bullock have a strong season. Andre Drummond delaying signing his contract extension is a huge boost for the Pistons next summer.
19. Pacers (38-44). He resisted it at first but once he got comfortable there Paul George looked good at the four — he looks like he is back. The question with the Pacers is defense, and how much rookie Myles Turner can play and help them there.
20. Kings (29-53, LW 26). They played faster and shot threes like wild in the preseason (DeMarcus Cousins was 1-of-12 from deep). It feels like this team will be Jekyll and Hyde from night to night, week to week.
21. Celtics (40-42). I love the Amir Johnson pickup and Marcus Smart had a strong preseason, but I’m not as high on this team as many. They have a pretty challenging first few weeks of the season to test how good they really are.
22. Magic (25-57). Scott Skiles is going to make this team better than a lot of people expect, but we may not see that the first couple weeks of the season thanks to a difficult schedule (they start Wizards, Thunder, Bulls).
23. Hornets (33-49). The Michael Kidd-Gilchrist injury sets them back from playoff team in the East to one that likely doesn’t have enough defense to get to .500 and in that mix. Jeremy Lin put up nice numbers in the preseason.
24. Timberwolves (16-66). Rest in peace Flip Saunders. I’m excited to watch the team he put together — Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns — try to figure things out as the season moves on.
25. Lakers (21-61). The Lakers continue to walk a line between not wanting to be as bad as they were a year ago — so they bring in veterans and keep Metta World Peace — and rebuilding. For example, they brought in Roy Hibbert to improve their defense (that didn’t work great in the preseason by the numbers) and if he can this ranking may be a little low for them.
26. Nuggets (30-52). I think Emmanuel Mudiay is going to be a very good player in this league (and in the ROY running) but he’s going to have a bumpy season — he had 27 assists and 24 turnovers in the preseason. If I were to bet on one team trading a veteran this season, it would be Denver.
27. Knicks (17-65, LW 29). Carmelo Anthony put up strong shooting numbers in the preseason, we’ll see if that trend continues with a challenging opening week (Bucks, Hawks, Wizards). I like the idea of starting Kristaps Porzingis, throw him into the deep end and let him learn through his mistakes.
28. Nets (38-44). They have Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson, plus a good coach in Lionel Hollins, but this team is going to struggle. They finally got under the salary cap again and have money to spend next summer, but that came with sacrifices on the court.
29. Trail Blazers (51-31). Consider putting C.J. McCollum on your fantasy team, he’s the only guy not named Lillard who can be trusted to create shots and score on this team.
30. 76ers (18-64). They are going to run the offense through Jahlil Okafor, but without Robert Covington and Nik Stauskas to start the season (due to injury) defenses will collapse on him and as good as the rookie may be he can only do so much.