Placing 2015 NBA draft prospects into tiers

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As I outlined last year:

Draft for need or take the best player available?

It’s the question as old as drafts themselves.Personally, I favor the middle-of-the-road approach – the tier system. I judge prospects on three attributes:

  • Current ability
  • Potential
  • Likelihood of meeting that potential

Obviously, assessing those attributes is not easy. It’s really hard.

That’s why I don’t like taking the best prospect – based on all three criteria – available. It’s just too difficult to split hairs between players with so many variables.

But overly considering fit is problematic for the same reason. Rosters churn, and it’s foolish to pass on a clearly better prospect – in the cases that becomes clear – just because he doesn’t fit the current version of the team.

So how does the tier system work?

Divide players into tiers based on their value regardless of fit. Don’t worry about differentiating prospects with nearly identical values. Find natural cutoffs.

Then, within each tier, rank the players based on fit for the specific drafting team.

Theoretically, a draft could have anywhere between 1 and 60 tiers. A 1-tier draft would mean every prospect – from the top pick to Mr. Irrelevant – holds the same value. A 60-tier draft would mean every prospect is clearly distinguishable based on value. Obviously, neither is likely.

The size of tiers should be organic, and therefore, the number of tiers is also organic. Naturally, tiers tend to be smaller near the top of the draft, where lines between players are sharper.

Here are my tiers for the 2015 draft, going through as many tiers as necessary to cover the top 30 prospects. Within each tier, I rank players as if the teams drafting had empty rosters. Obviously, actual NBA teams would need to consider other information when assessing fit of players within a tier.

Tier 1

1. Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky

Towns is probably the draft’s top talent, but what really sets him apart is his versatility. Teams picking this high should change significantly over the coming years. Towns has a wide enough skill set to let his team set any style around him, opening more opportunities for growth.

Tier 2

2. Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke

Okafor is an elite post-up scorer, but can you build a strong defense with him at center? Don’t write off a 19-year-old’s ability to improve defensively. Besides, he might be good enough offensively to be a good pro regardless of what happens on the other end.

3. D'Angelo Russell, PG, Ohio State

Russell will bend NBA defenses in the pick-and-roll with his ability to shoot from outside, score at the rim and pass. You can’t easily defend all three simultaneously. Still, Russell’s lack of elite athleticism presents some bust risk.

Tier 3

4. Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China

It’s a little unnerving to have a lead guard who’s not a strong shooter, but Mudiay warrants the risk. Possessing good athleticism and strength, he projects as a steadying force on both ends of the court.

5. Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia

Porzingis is a 7-foot, athletic, jump-shooting 19-year-old. His flaws – inside scoring, rebounding and toughness – could be entirely explained away by his thin frame. As he fills out, maybe everything comes together – or maybe his deficiencies are shown to be caused by something else.

Tier 4

6. Justise Winslow, SF, Duke

Winslow flat-out plays hard all the time. That goes a long way, especially with his specialty: defense. His offensive defensive development has been encouraging, though he still needs work on that end.

Tier 5

7. Myles Turner, C, Texas

Turner is a big rebounder and shot-blocker who also shoots 3-pointers. It’s an intriguing skill set. I’d feel a little better about him if he were a more fluid athlete and had a chance to prove himself in more minutes per game during his lone college season. On the other hand, maybe Texas just didn’t have the scheme to make him look good – which would underrate him.

8. Stanley Johnson, SF, Arkansas

Johnson is a little confusing. He doesn’t have the prettiest stroke, but he shot well from outside at Arizona. He looks like a great athlete at times, but he didn’t finish well at the rim. I suppose that cancels out, though there’s a concern one trend will reverse. There’s no doubting Johnson’s defensive potential, though.

9. Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia

Hezonja is a sweet-shooting, athletic wing with a ton of confidence. That last trait comes with plenty of positives and negatives.

Tier 6

10. Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky

I had Cauley-Stein one tier up before news of his injury. That was just enough to bump him down. I love his defensive potential, but don’t act as if he’s a lock to become Defensive Player of the Year – and without the assurance he’ll excel on one end, his offensive flaws and rebounding question marks become more meaningful.

11. Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin

Kaminsky was the rare college senior who played so well in his fourth year, it outweighed his age advantage. But there’s no wiping away his lack of athleticism and strength.

12. Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State

Payne has the shooting and passing ability and vision to succeed in the pick-and-roll. If he could score better at the rim, he’d jump a tier or two. As is, he can at least get by with pull-up jumpers and floaters.

13. Bobby Portis, PF, Arizona

Portis plays hard and smart, skills that allow him to be pretty good at nearly everything (though great at nothing). His lack of elite athleticism limits his upside and provides a little worry about how he projects to the next level.

14. R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State

I still believe Hunter is a top-end shooter, though his heavy usage against defenses keyed on him last season exposed the limits of his stroke. But his free-throw percentage remained a sparkling 88, a positive sign. Another bright side: Hunter showed a more well-rounded game as he took a bigger load.

15. Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky

He can flat-out shoot 3s. If he can do anything else, he didn’t show it at Kentucky. But as one of the draft’s youngest prospects, Booker could still round out his game. It’s not as if Kentucky needed more than his one dimension.

Tier 7

16. Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin

Dekker uses his athleticism and court vision to find open shots (inside and out) and avoid turnovers. His length is a real defensive weapon. I just don’t trust his 3-point shooting enough to rank him higher.

17. Tyus Jones, PG, Duke

Jones has excellent court vision with the outside shooting and passing ability to take advantage of it. He just doesn’t have an NBA body or athleticism.

Tier 8

18. Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA

The gap between what Looney can do and what Looney has done is wide. The flashes of talent are there. But can he put it all together?

19. Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky

A natural power forward, Lyles spent the season playing small forward. That says something about his skill level. But it’s a little unnerving we didn’t get to see more of Lyles in the role he’ll play in the pros.

20. Delon Wright, PG, Utah

Wright can do a bit of everything, but he probably needs the ball in his hands to maximize his ability. Is he good enough to regularly deserve the ball in his hands? Probably as a backup.

21. Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas

Oubre has a nice frame and athleticism. He just doesn’t have much feel for the game – a harsh reality, but not a deal-breaker at 19.

Tier 9

22. Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia

Anderson is exceptionally strong for a wing, and he has a high motor. How well can he shoot from outside? The results are mixed, but I’d bet on his work ethic.

23. Christian Wood, PF, UNLV

His face-up game is intriguing as the 19-year-old grows into his 6-foot-11 frame. But does he have the desire to eliminate his bad shots or work to shoot better?

24. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona

He’s a prototypical wing besides his lack of shooting ability. That’s a major, though correctable, flaw.

25. Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame

Grant, who has an advanced offensive game after spending five years in college, is a relatively low-risk, low-reward prospect. Teams need backup point guards.

Tier 10

26. Michael Frazier, SG, Florida

Frazier can make spot-up 3-pointers. We’ve seen enough not to expect more, but there’s a role for that in the NBA.

27. Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse

He’s the type of raw prospect who’s worth betting on at this point in the draft. It probably won’t pay off, but you could end up with someone who would have been a lottery pick next year.

28. Cedi Osman, SF, Turkey

Osman has nice size and athleticism, and he passes well for his position. There are tools to work with – just not a reliable jumper.

Tier 11

29. Anthony Brown, SF, Stanford

Is the fifth-year senior a late bloomer or someone who just outgrew college competition? That question will dictate the future of the 3-and-D wing.

30. Richaun Holmes, PF, Bowling Green

He already looks like a solid defender, blocking shots and cleaning the glass. Plus, he has made offensive progress throughout his career. But his competition level makes it difficult to have more confidence in him.

31. Joseph Young, SG, Oregon

The 6-foot-2 Young will either be a very undersized shooting guard or a point guard with very inadequate distributing skills. His  athleticism gives him a chance to overcome the former predicament. His production level probably fits better with players one tier lower, but his style seems to offer a well-worn path to NBA playing time as a scoring guard off the bench.

32. Mouhammadou Jaiteh, C, France

Jaiteh has the size to bang in the post, the hands to catch entry passes and the touch to finish. His lack of leaping ability raises plenty of questions on both ends of the court, though.

Knicks’ Julius Randle out at least two weeks with sprained ankle

Miami Heat v New York Knicks
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In just a little more than two weeks, April 15 or 16, the New York Knicks will open the playoffs, likely on the road in Cleveland.

They hope to have Julius Randle back for that game.

The Knicks’ All-Star forward and leading scorer, Randle suffered a sprained ankle against the Heat on Wednesday night and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, the team announced.

That timeline has him re-evaluated days before the playoffs tip-off. He will not play again this regular season.

Randle rolled his ankle leaping for a rebound and landing on Bam Adebayo‘s foot in the second quarter, and he left the game not to return. Friday night against those Cavaliers (in Cleveland) will be the first game Randle has missed all season.

Randle is playing at an All-NBA level again this season, averaging 25.1 points and 10 rebounds a game. The Knicks have five games remaining in the season and are almost locked in as the No.5 seed, four games back of the No. 4 Cavaliers and 2.5 games up on the No.6 seed (and stumbling) Nets.

 

Kevin Durant: ‘I don’t care about legacy… I used to… Nowadays, I truly, truly don’t care’

Minnesota Timberwolves v Phoenix Suns
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In the neverending debate around sports, we become obsessed with a player’s legacy. What is LeBron James‘ legacy and does he need another ring in his GOAT battle with Michael Jordan? What will Damian Lillard‘s legacy be if he chooses to spend his entire career in Portland and doesn’t jump teams to chase a ring? What will Kevin Durant‘s legacy be with him getting ripped by some fans for going to Golden State and joining forces with Stephen Curry in the first place, then other fans ripping him for leaving that situation?

Durant doesn’t care.

That’s what he told Shams Charania of The Athletic.

“I don’t care about legacy,” Durant told The Athletic. “I used to. I used to want to carve out a lane or space in this game for myself that people can remember, but it’s become too much of a thing now. It just becomes too much of a focus on other people. What’s he done, what’s he done? Comparisons. Before, when we wasn’t doing all this debating, I cared about it … I’m about to be in the same breath as these top guys. It was big.

“Nowadays, I truly, truly don’t care. I truly just want to go out there and produce, be the best that I could be, go home, hang with my family, that’s it.”

Durant’s legacy as one of the great pure scorers the game has ever seen is unquestioned. If he walks away from the game right now, he goes down as likely a top 15 player of all-time (that may be low) and a lock first-ballot Hall of Famer. His ability to create a shot for himself, or just hit a jumper over his defender even if there isn’t a good look, may be unparalleled in league history.

Beyond that, it’s the eye of the beholder. Durant is back on the court in Phoenix trying to extend that legacy, however people choose to define it.

What you say about Durant’s years in Golden State — with a couple of rings and a couple of Finals MVPs — says more about what you want and expect from a superstar than it does Durant. He told Charania he saw no logic in what people said about him as he left Golden State, so he stopped worrying about it. He went to Brooklyn, which went worse than just about everyone expected, so he moved on and said he is ignoring the critics again. (Except the occasional foray into Twitter may suggest he cares more than he lets on.)

Durant has cast himself as a guy who just wants to hoop because, at his core, that’s who he is. This is a guy who loves the grind, the competition, he’s an ultimate process-over-results guy. He’s embraced that about himself, he sees that as his legacy even if others will pile more on top of it.

Durant can’t end the legacy debate around him. But he doesn’t have to care about it, either.

 

Rudy Gobert latest to rip referees, claims conspiracy against Wolves ‘It’s just so obvious’

Minnesota Timberwolves v Golden State Warriors
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Devin Booker‘s 15 free throw attempts in the Suns’ win Wednesday was more than the 12 the entire Timberwolves team took.

That set Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert off on a tinfoil hat conspiracy theory that the referees wanted to help the Suns win. And the Kings the game before that. And the Warriors the game before that. Here’s the full quote (via Chris Hine) that will earn Gobert a healthy fine from the league:

“It’s bulls***. Bulls***. It’s really not fair. Every night. I’ve been in this league for 10 years and I try to always give the benefit of the doubt, but it’s hard for me to think [the referees] are not trying to help [Phoenix] win tonight. It’s hard for me to think they didn’t try to help the Warriors win the other night, or the Sacramento Kings the other night.

“It’s just so obvious. As a basketball player that’s been in this league for so long, it’s disrespectful, and it sucks, to be honest. We work so hard to be in a position to compete with the best, and we just get manipulated into those situations where it just impacts the game for the other team too much. They know how to do it. They do it a lot of different ways. Tonight was another way of doing it.

“But it’s all good. We understand that it’s also a business. Unfortunately. It’s sad, but it’s good also. It’s really good. But it’s true. We understand that we’re not the biggest of the markets, and we’re a team that … I think you want to see [Kevin Durant] in the playoffs, Steph [Curry] in the playoffs, you want to see LeBron [James] in the playoffs. The Timberwolves are not there yet. We got to keep putting our head down, keep playing through that, and it’s frustrating for sure, especially for me.”

For the record, the Timberwolves and Kings were very close in free throws attempted — 34 to 32 — in that Minnesota win. The Timberwolves had 25 free throws to the Warriors’ 17 in that Golden State win. Also, Sacramento fans will have a good laugh at the idea that they are lumped in with the big market, star-driven franchises that allegedly get all the breaks from the league.

It’s also amusing that Gobert is complaining about all the calls the Suns got when Phoenix coach Monty Williams was fined $20,000 after going off last week on how the referees are conspiring against the Suns. Maybe this is just Gobert taking a page out of Williams’ book? Gobert’s frustration is understandable on one level, Booker can be a frustrating player for defenders to go against. The Suns’ guard is a master of drawing contact (often initiating it) then getting the ball up looking for a shooting foul.

Two other quick thoughts. Suggesting that the number of free throws teams take in a game should be roughly even is flawed logic — aggressive teams attacking the rim get the calls. That is not always going to be even. Giannis Antetokounmpo gets calls because he is relentless in driving the lane, and nobody has another answer to stop him, and that is true of Joel Embiid, Luka Dončić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the other guys who get to the line a lot.

Is the NBA a star-driven league? Duh. It has been since David Stern started selling Magic vs. Bird instead of the Lakers vs. Celtics. Do the game’s biggest stars get special treatment from the referees? It does feel like it, but those are also the players with the ball in their hands the most, attacking and creating shots for themselves and others, so they were naturally going to draw more fouls anyway.

Gobert is frustrated and I get that. But the Timberwolves have been one of the best teams in the NBA over the few weeks, and that driving their chance to make the top six and avoid the play-in should be the focus. This Minnesota team is finding its stride, and the referees will not take that away. Unless the Wolves let them.

Three things to Know: ‘Light the Beam’ — Kings secure first playoff berth since 2006

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Three Things To Know is NBC’s five-days-a-week wrap-up of the night before in the NBA. Check out NBCSports.com every weekday morning to catch up on what you missed the night before plus the rumors, drama, and dunks that make the NBA must-watch.

1) Light the Beam: Kings secure first playoff berth since 2006

“Light the beam! Light the beam!”

The chant was ringing across the beam-less Moda Center in Portland Wednesday night from a healthy-sized group of Kings fans who drove (or flew) up from Sacramento to watch the Kings secure their first playoff berth since 2006. They got their wish, watching a 120-80 thrashing of the Blazers — and they made themselves heard.

Back in Sacramento, the fans gravitated to the Golden 1 Center downtown to see the beam get lit, chanting and waving flags the whole way.

The Kings have been the best story in the NBA this season, and the most entertaining team to watch with an up-tempo, high-efficiency offense (and a defense that had them winning fun-to-watch shootouts). They took a risk trading away a fan favorite in Tyrese Haliburton (who has lived up to the hype with an All-NBA-level season in Indiana), but that got them Domantas Sabonis, who became a lynchpin at the center (and very possibly an All-NBA player himself this season). Moving Haliburton also unleashed De'Aaron Fox at the point, he has been brilliant and is the frontrunner to win the NBA’s first Clutch Player of the Year award.

Then there’s Keegan Murray, who stood out at Summer League as the most NBA-ready player in this class, and he has responded by making more 3-pointers than any other rookie in NBA history.

Veteran coach Mike Brown brought it all together — a defense-first coach overseeing one of the best offenses the game has ever seen — and he likely will be rewarded with the Coach of the Year award.

This is why sport. A fan base that has suffered through an ownership group that tried to sell the team and move them out of town, that has suffered through losing season after losing season, fans that have not bought tickets to a playoff game since there was a Bush in the White House have been rewarded. The Kings are in — and not just squeaking into the postseason, they are the Pacific Division champions and the No.3 seed in the West.

This is something a story and a franchise worth celebrating. Savor this moment Kings fans, you deserve it.

2) Jalen Williams tip-in helps Thunder stay in the postseason at bottom of West

A lot of action impacting the crowded bottom of the West playoff chase. Here’s a quick breakdown.

• Jalen Williams’ putback game-winner saved the Thunder on a night they almost dropped one to the Pistons.

• The Thunder’s win combined with the Mavericks’ loss to the 76ers has Oklahoma City a full game up on Dallas for the final play-in spot, but that is really two games because OKC also owns the tiebreaker. (Dallas is also two games back in the loss column from No. 9 seed New Orleans.) Nothing is set, but the Thunder control their own destiny in making the postseason, and Luka Dončić and the Mavericks could be on the outside looking in.

Anthony Davis went off for the Lakers and they beat the Bulls in Chicago.

• The Lakers were helped out Wednesday by the return of Kevin Durant to the Suns, who helped them beat the Timberwolves 107-100. The Lakers are the No.8 seed in the West, tied with the Pelicans for No.9 but also just half a game back of the Timberwolves at No.7 (the Lakers. Timberwolves and Pelicans are all tied in the loss column at 38).

• The Clippers had the most improbable win of the night: No Kawhi Leonard, no Paul George, going up against a Memphis team that had won seven in a row. But the Clippers got a vintage Russell Westbrook performance and that was enough. They continue to sit as the No.5 seed in the West, and they could see Durant and the Suns in what would be a very interesting first-round series.

3) Knicks get win, but lost Julius Randle to sprained ankle

The Knicks picked up a win at home against the Heat, a quality win that has New York even more locked in as the No.5 seed in the East (and may have destined Miami for No.7), but that’s not what anyone is talking about.

Julius Randle sprained his ankle leaping for a rebound and landing on Bam Adebayo‘s foot in the second quarter, and he left the game not to return. As is often the case with ankle sprains, it will be later today — once the swelling has gone down and maybe an MRI is done — that they will have a true picture of the severity and how long Randle could be out.

Randle has not missed a game yet this season, but that will change. Randle is averaging 25.1 points and 10 rebounds a game, playing at an All-NBA level again this season in New York. The Knicks will not be the same team without him.

The Knicks have five games remaining in the season and are almost locked in as the No.5 seed. The season ends April 9 but the Knicks would not start the playoffs (likely in Cleveland) until April 15 or 16. That’s more than two weeks to get Randle right.