Teams in the Cavaliers’ position – starting a best-of-seven series on the road and then leading 2-1 – have won 64% percent of the time.
That’s a nice edge for Cleveland, but hardly an overwhelming one.
But after tonight’s Game 4, one team – whether it’s the Cavaliers or Warriors – will have an even stronger advantage based on those historic trends.
For simplicity, we’ll consider the team that begins a series with home-court advantage the favorite and the team that begins the series on the road the underdog.
Either underdog Cleveland will go up 3-1 or favored Golden State will tie it 2-2. Here’s how often teams in those situations have won the series:
- Underdog up 3-1: 91% (69-7)
- Favorite tied 2-2: 79% (145-38)
The Warriors are favored to win Game 4. Many people expect that happen, looking forward to a pivotal Game 5 with the series tied 2-2. Don’t.
There’s already a ton on the line tonight.