The last time the Hawks and Cavaliers met, with both teams at full health (and after the mid-season moves by the Cavaliers) the Hawks torched the Cavaliers defense, scoring at a 119 points per 100 possessions pace. Atlanta won comfortably behind a balanced attack that exposed flaws (like lateral movement and help) in the Cleveland defense.
If I thought those Hawks would show up this series, I would pick them.
But over the final two months those Hawks have only shown up in little flashes. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers still have LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, plus the size to score inside on the undersized Hawks starting front line. They have played better of late.
I’m picking the Cavaliers in six, just because I trust them more than the Hawks right now.