Adjusting for playoff rotations round two: Watch out for the Wizards

By May 3, 2015, 11:00 AM EDT
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Before the playoffs began, I assessed each team based on projected postseason rotation.

Here’s the idea:

In an attempt to get better data, I’ve used nba wowy! to rank playoff teams by regular-season net rating (offensive rating minus defensive rating), counting only the lineups that include five players projected to be in the team’s post-season rotation.

This measure is far from perfect. It doesn’t account for opponent or weigh lineups based on how often they’ll be used in the postseason, and it’s impossible to precisely predict a team’s playoff rotation.

The system and straight seeding differed twice for the first round, each method correctly predicting one of those two series:

  • My projection correct: Wizards over Raptors
  • Seeding correct: Bucks over Bulls

We now have more information – both about which players actually made the postseason rotation and how teams fared in the first round.

Here are the new adjusted ratings from full regular season to pre-playoff projection to pre-second round projection (counting first-round games and updating the postseason rotation when necessary):

EASTERN CONFERENCE

5. Washington Wizards

  • Offensive rating: 104.3 to 107.7 to 112.3
  • Defensive rating: 103.5 to 101.1 to 100.9
  • Net rating: +0.8 to +6.6 to +11.4

Kevin Seraphin, not Kris Humphries as I predicted, made the playoff rotation. That would have boosted the Wizards’ pre-playoff projection even higher, and they were already a sleeper based on this model.

A sweep of the Raptors supported all the positivity these numbers suggested about Washington.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Offensive rating: 111.7 to 118.2 to 114.2
  • Defensive rating: 106.9 to 101.0 to 105.6
  • Net rating: +4.8 to +17.2 to +8.6

I left James Jones out of my projected playoff rotation. Including him would have weakened the Cavaliers’ pre-playoff adjusted numbers on both ends of the floor, but they still would have ranked second in the league behind the Warriors for adjusted net rating.

Of course, Kevin Love is the big issue headed into the next round. It’s unclear how David Blatt will replace the power forward, but I added Mike Miller and Shawn Marion to the rotation. If it’s just one of the two or neither with no other replacement, the Cavs’ adjusted net rating would be a little better.

Remove J.R. Smith, who’s suspended the first two games though counted as part of the rotation here, and Cleveland actually fares a little better on both ends (with Miller and Marion in the rotation) than it would with Smith.

Still, the picture is clear: Cleveland gets downgraded significantly without Love. Enough to lose to the Bulls? Not according to this model.

3. Chicago Bulls

  • Offensive rating: 107.7 to 108.6 to 108.4
  • Defensive rating: 104. 4 to 103.3 to 102.5
  • Net rating: +3.3 to +5.3 to +5.9

I didn’t include Tony Snell in the Bulls’ playoff rotation, but he stuck, even when Kirk Hinrich was healthy. Had I included Snell, Chicago would have fared slightly better in my first-round projections.

To the surprise of many, the Bucks pushed the Bulls to six games, but that doesn’t give me pause about Chicago. The pre-playoff projection was high on Milwaukee, and though the model actually rated the Bucks above the Bulls, I think the actual result showed the point of the projection. It’s one data point of many, and the lesson should have been that the first-round series could be closer than expected – which happened.

1. Atlanta Hawks

  • Offensive rating: 109.6 to 109.9 to 110.0
  • Defensive rating: 103.8 to 104.9 to 105.1
  • Net rating: +5.8 to +5.0 to +4.9

I incorrectly left Shelvin Mack out of the predicted rotation, though he wouldn’t have changed much.

There were reasons to be concerned about the Hawks entering the playoffs based on this model. A six-game series against the Nets was surprising, because Brooklyn also looked weak. But the first-round matchup also exposed issues with Atlanta this model predicted.

Pick the No. 1 seed to advance at your own risk.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Golden State Warriors

  • Offensive rating: 111.7 to 116.4 to 114.7
  • Defensive rating: 101.3 to 95.7 to 99.1
  • Net rating: +10.4 to +20.7 to +15.6

I didn’t include Marreese Speights and Leandro Barbosa in the Warriors’ rotation, but Steve Kerr did. If I had, Golden State’s projection would have suffered on both ends of the floor.

The Warriors are favored here regardless, but I believe if necessary, they can trim their rotation and become even stronger.

3. Los Angeles Clippers

  • Offensive rating: 113.2 to 117.5 to 118.8
  • Defensive rating: 106.3 to 105.9 to 105.4
  • Net rating: +6.9 to +11.6 to +13.4

I mistakenly had Spencer Hawes in the playoff rotation, but it’s clear Doc Rivers doesn’t trust him. Removing Hawes doesn’t make much difference, though it improves the Clippers’ adjusted rating a bit on both ends of the floor.

The big issue: Will Chris Paul be healthy? A playoff rotation without him projects to have an offensive/defensive/net rating of 97.0/108.1/-11.1. That’s disastrous, but it’s a small sample and overly relies on bench-heavy units. Blake Griffin and the Clippers’ other starters just didn’t play that much without Paul.

If Paul is healthy, the Clippers rate better than the Rockets. If not, lower – though it’s not clear just how much lower Los Angeles actually should be.

2. Houston Rockets

  • Offensive rating: 107.5 to 110.1 to 112.3
  • Defensive rating: 104.0 to 101.0  to 101.2
  • Net rating: 3.5 to +9.1 to +11.1

Clint Capela, not Joey Dorsey, was Houston’s backup center – and that would have boosted their pre-playoff projection on both ends of the floor.

For the most part, the Rockets are the steadier team in their second-round matchup. It’s Paul’s health that should determine everything.

Make no mistake, though: Houston’s playoff rotation is good and will require the Clippers to play well to advance.

5. Memphis Grizzlies

  • Offensive rating: 106.2 to 108.0 to 109.1
  • Defensive rating: 102.7 to 102.7 to 102.8
  • Net rating: +3.5 to +5.3 to +6.3

I included Mike Conley in this projection. If he can’t play, the offensive/defensive/net splits go to 107.3/101.6+5.7.

That’s not as large a drop as I anticipated, but it probably doesn’t matter much. The Grizzlies land well behind the Warriors either way.

MVP showdown off: 76ers to sit Joel Embiid due to calf tightness

By Mar 27, 2023, 2:32 PM EDT
Philadelphia 76ers v Phoenix Suns
Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images
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Recently Joel Embiid said,” ‘If I win MVP, good. If I don’t, it’s fine with me.” Today’s news plays right into that narrative.

Embiid has been playing through calf tightness for a few games now — he only played a half against the Bulls last Wednesday — but still putting up numbers (46 points against the Warriors, 28 and 10 against the Suns). However, there had been some concern in the organization about not pushing things and making sure Embiid is healthy for the playoffs. Which is why they will rest him on Monday night, short-circuiting an MVP-race showdown against Nikola Jokić and the Nuggets. Adrian Wojnarowski and Ramona Shelburne of ESPN broke the news and John Clarke of NBC Sports Philadelphia has confirmed it.

Embiid did go through part of the 76ers’ shootaround this morning. The decision was made after that point.

Undoubtedly this will spark the load management discussion around the league again, and Embiid is going to take heat for this — but this is a situation where the team’s medical staff made the call, likely over Embiid’s objection.

From the 76ers perspective what matters is having Embiid healthy during the playoffs — they are going nowhere without him — and there is no reason to take undue risks with the team all but locked into the No. 3 seed in the East.

James Harden is still expected to make his return to action Monday from a three-game absence.

But it robs fans — including those who bought tickets in Denver — of one of the great showdowns in the league, and one of the more anticipated games of the season’s final weeks. The NBA has to find a way to balance player health with having their best players on the court for the biggest games. Keep telling fans the regular season doesn’t matter and they will start treating it like that.

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Joel Embiid not stressing about MVP: ‘If I win MVP, good. If I don’t, it’s fine with me.’

By Mar 27, 2023, 1:44 PM EDT
Philadelphia 76ers v Phoenix Suns
Christian Petersen/Getty Images
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Joel Embiid is the MVP betting favorite — -160 at our partner PointsBet — heading into Monday’s showdown with the reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokić (+180 at PointsBet).

Embiid campaigned for the MVP award the past couple of years but came up second to Jokić. This season, Embiid is not stressing about it. Or at least trying not to stress about it. Here is what Embiid told Shams Charania of The Athletic.

What matters — it’s just about winning, winning, winning. I’ve been focused on that. We’ve been doing that. Whatever happens, happens. If I win MVP, good. If I don’t, it’s fine with me.

Why hasn’t Embiid won the MVP? Outside of Jokić also being deserving and the complaints of Antetokounmpo and others that the criteria for the award are constantly changing (which suggests there are criteria for the award, but there are none officially), Embiid thinks it’s because he is not well-liked.

People always thought that I was crazy when I said this — I really believe that I’m not well-liked. And it’s cool with me, that’s fine. I’ll be the bad guy. I like being the a–hole anyway. I like being the underdog. So that’s fine with me. My thing is … when I leave the game, I want to make sure that they say: No one was stopping him offensively and defensively, and he was a monster.

There’s no doubt he will leave the game remembered as one of the great 76ers and a “monster” on both ends when healthy. However, resume matters with legacy and an MVP award helps with that. Just not as much as being the best player on a championship team, something more difficult to pull off because it requires a lot of help (it’s up for debate whether Embiid has the help he needs around him to win it all, and if they can stay healthy enough to make that run).

This season the MVP race is a tight three-way contest between Embiid, Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo (+450 at PointsBet). There are legitimate cases to be made for each member of this trio. However, with the Sixers surging (and the Nuggets stumbling a little), things may break his way this season.

Another dominant performance against Jokić with just a couple of weeks left in the season would stick in voters’ minds and help his cause.

Check out more on the 76ers

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Kyrie Irving has fan ejected during road loss to Hornets

By Mar 27, 2023, 10:35 AM EDT
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Sunday was not a good day for the Mavericks and Kyrie Irving.

In addition to losing their second-straight game to the Hornets (and fourth straight overall) to fall out of even the play-in out West, Irving had a Hornets fan ejected from the game Sunday. Irving pointed the situation out to the referee, and soon arena security was involved and the man was escorted out.

It is unclear what the fan said to Irving, but more players in recent years have taken this step with fans they feel had crossed the line of common decency. Irving addressed the situation in his postgame press conference.

Irving and the Mavericks heard boos from their fans at home last Friday during a loss to these same Hornets, and Irving’s response that night was more defiant in tone.

“So what? Just the way I feel about it. I’ve been in New York City so I know what that’s like. You obviously want to play well, but there’s only five people on the court who can play for the Dallas Mavericks. If the fans wanna change places, then hey, be my guest. Got years of work ahead to be great enough to be on this level. But our focus isn’t necessarily on the boos, it should be on the performance.”

That performance has been lacking — the Mavericks have lost four in a row, 7-of-9, and if the postseason started today they would be fishing in Cabo. Irving hasn’t been the problem (the Mavericks are 4.5 per 100 possessions better when he is on the court), but he hasn’t been the solution, either. Irving is a free agent after this season and said he and Luka Dončić are still getting used to playing with one another.

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Three things to Know: Mavericks slumping way right out of playoffs

By Mar 27, 2023, 9:44 AM EDT
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LOS ANGELES — Three Things To Know is NBC’s five-days-a-week wrap-up of the night before in the NBA. Check out NBCSports.com every weekday morning to catch up on what you missed the night before plus the rumors, drama, and dunks that make the NBA must-watch.

1) Mavericks slumping way right out of postseason

This is how bad things look for the Mavericks: If the postseason started today, not only would Dallas miss even the play-in, but their No.11 pick in the draft would go to the New York Knicks, the team that took Jalen Brunson from them last summer (the pick heads to NYC as part of the Kristaps Porzingins trade from four years ago, but it is top-10 protected).

Things are bleak in Dallas — the Mavericks dropped their second game in a row to the tanking Charlotte Hornets (without LaMelo Ball) on Sunday, making it four straight losses and 7-of-9 for a team that took a big swing at the trade deadline landing Kyrie Irving.

Irving has not been the problem — the Mavericks have a +4.8 net rating when Irving is on the court (and +4.6 when he and Dončić are both on), and the reports out of Dallas are he has been a model citizen in the locker room. And Dončić is not the problem, he dropped 40 on Sunday (he started 0-of-6 shooting but found his groove).

The problem is the Mavericks were a too-small, 24th-ranked defensive team before they sent their best defenders to Brooklyn to land Irving. Now they can’t stop anybody, particularly inside — even lowly Charlotte scored 22 more points in the paint than Dallas, and the Hornets had 20 more rebounds, including 11 more offensive rebounds.

The Mavericks started Dwight Powell (he only played four minutes) and Josh Green at the 4/5 and they combined for five points.

Now Dallas faces Myles Turner and Indiana on a back-to-back, and will do it without Dončić, who picked up his 16th technical on the season — triggering an automatic suspension — when he complained a little too much after not getting a call on a leaning baseline jumper.

At 36-39, the Mavericks are a full game back of the Thunder and Lakers, who currently are tied for the 9/10 seeds in the West, and Dallas has the hardest remaining schedule of those three. No wonder Dončić is frustrated.

They will not choose this path, but should the Mavericks pack it in and tank to get into the top 10 of the NBA Draft and try to keep their pick for this season? That seems the smarter franchise-building move as opposed to trying to salvage this season by making the bottom of the play-in and trying to win a couple of games to be the No.8 seed. It’s also not something Dallas would do with Dončić and Irving on the roster.

In which case, the Mavs had better find a way to get a few more stops and improve their play in the paint, because it’s more that than their stars keeping them out of the postseason.

2) LeBron returns from foot injury, scores 19 off bench, Lakers still lose

LeBron James said the first two doctors he spoke with suggested he get surgery after his foot injury last month. However, he went and saw the preeminent foot doctor in Los Angeles and he said not to go under the knife and came up with a treatment plan. A month later, LeBron James was back on the court Sunday, scoring 19 points for the Lakers off the bench in his return.

It was not enough Sunday.

Even with LeBron, the Lakers remain a team with no margin for error and Zach LaVine carved Los Angeles up for 32 points on 13-of-19 shooting, while DeMar DeRozan added 17 points and 10 assists back home in L.A., and the Bulls picked up the 118-108 win.

Patrick Beverley even too-smalled LeBron.

And the Bulls won despite Nikola Vucevic getting a quick-trigger ejection, although he didn’t fight it so he must have said some magical words.

The Bulls have quietly gone 10-5 since the All-Star break and have the second-best defense in the NBA over that stretch. They have climbed up to the No.10 seed in the East and are tied in the loss column with the 8th-seeded Hawks — the Bulls making it out of the play-in to the playoffs is not a crazy idea.

The Lakers may only be one-game back of the Warriors in the loss column for the No.6 seed in the West, and now they have LeBron back in the lineup, but this is still a below .500 team whose margin for error is too small. The Lakers look like a play-in team. For more than 70 games the Lakers have struggled to string together consistent play, do we really think they will start doing it now?

Play-in or not, with LeBron and Anthony Davis, you know that Denver and Memphis — the likely top two seeds in the West — are looking down at the play-in and thinking they want no part of the Lakers in the first round.

3) Anthony Edward returns, KAT is clutch and Minnesota beats Golden State

Could the Timberwolves pass the Warriors and move into the top-six in the West, sending the defending champs to the play-in?

That looked much more realistic Sunday when the Warriors got sloppy when it mattered — they turned the ball over 11 times in the second half — and Karl-Anthony Towns knocked down two critical 3-pointers down the stretch, and the Timberwolves beat the Warriors 99-96. This play pretty much sums up the key moments of the second half.

The Timberwolves deserve credit — they played tough, opportunistic defense when it mattered. Jaden McDaniels doesn’t score much but he has become critical for them. Naz Reid led Minnesota in scoring with 23 off the bench. Edwards, in his return from a sprained ankle, looked rusty early but found a groove late and was a team-best +12 on the night.

Minnesota is the No.7 seed in the West, half a game back of the Warriors but tied in the loss column. Their schedules are pretty even down the stretch.

It’s hard not to pick the defending champs to hold on to the top-six seed, but after a frustrating season where they have not consistently stood out on either end of the court, it’s hard to picture them flipping the switch for the final six games as well. Maybe this is not their year… which we might have guessed back in training camp when Draymond Green punched Joran Poole.