No Kevin Durant, no Serge Ibaka, and Thunder still likely will be West’s eight seed

By Kurt HelinMar 20, 2015, 5:44 PM EDT

There was a time a couple weeks back when it looked like Oklahoma City could become the most dangerous eight seed in NBA history. Russell Westbrook was (and is) playing at an MVP level, Kevin Durant was coming back and they not only had the core of a team that went to the Western Conference finals a season before, but also had improved the bench.

But now Kevin Durant is out indefinitely (and may well miss the playoffs) because of his Jones fracture not healing right. (This is not uncommon, there is not great blood flow to that area.) Serge Ibaka is out until sometime around when the playoffs start. Enes Kanter is banged up. The threatening Thunder are no more.

Despite all that, the Thunder are still the favorites to be the eight seed in the Western Conference playoffs.

The Thunder currently have a one-game lead over the Pelicans and a two-and-a-half game lead over Phoenix. There are three reasons the Thunder likely hold on to the eight seed.

1) Oklahoma City has the easier schedule the rest of the way. Both, the Thunder and Pelicans, have 14 games remaining. The Thunder have eight of those games at home, the Thunder six. The Thunder have eight games remaining against teams over .500, three of them on the road; the Pelicans have nine games remaining against + .500 teams, five of those on the road. It’s going to be tough for the Pelicans to make up that game against a tougher schedule.

2) Oklahoma City still has Russell Westbrook. You’ve certainly heard this but here is a reminder: In his last 10 games Russell Westbrook has averaged 35 points, 10.4 rebounds and 10.3 assists a game. He has been the best player in the league. I hear your complaints, that he’s not shooting a high percentage (40 percent), and he’s turning the ball over more than Scott Brooks wants to see (6.4 a game). But that’s the price of how much he has to handle the ball and how much offense he has to generate. Plus the Thunder are playing at a better rate their last 10 games than the Pelicans (something Kevin Pelton broke down at ESPN Insider). He is playing at a level that can carry this team to the playoffs. (If you’re saying “the Pelicans have their own star in Anthony Davis” you’d be right — except he missed Thursday night and is expected to be out Friday with a sprained ankle. And without him the Pelicans are not the same.)

3) Phoenix threw in the towel on this race back at the trade deadline. Thinking they could not keep pace with the surging Thunder (who then seemed likely to keep rolling and stay healthy), back at the trade deadline the Suns shipped out Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas. The Suns made moves they saw as needed for the long term (we can debate that another day). Since the trade deadline the Suns are 7-8, and at that pace they are just not going to make up the needed ground on the Thunder or Pelicans.

When the playoffs start April 19, it’s likely we will see Russell Westbrook and the Thunder as the eight seed, facing Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors. The Thunder will be huge underdogs — not the serious threat they looked like a month ago — but they likely get to go to the dance.

Despite everything.

Three takeaways from Heat ripping heart out of Celtics, taking 3-0 series lead

By Kurt HelinMay 22, 2023, 12:30 AM EDT

The Heat shocked the basketball world with a first-round upset of the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks. They were willful and relentless.

They were just getting started.

Sunday night, Miami ripped the heart out of the Boston Celtics with a dominating 128-102 win to take a 3-0 series lead. Game 4 is Tuesday night. After watching this game it’s tough to picture the series returning to Boston.

1) Miami is impressive, but this is an epic Boston collapse

It’s hard to sum up how ugly the Celtics’ night was, but if one clip could do so it is this: Duncan Robinson — who took 85.6% of his shots this season with zero or one dribble, who is not considered an NBA shot creator— cooking Second Team All-Defense Derrick White off the bounce to set up the Bam Adebayo alley-oop.

THROW IT DOWN BAM 💥 pic.twitter.com/zuuAEqlu7J

— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) May 22, 2023

Credit Robinson for the play, but this was a dreadful, heartless outing by the Celtics when they should have played with desperation.

“I don’t even know where to start. Obvious letdown. We let our fanbase and organization down…” Jaylen Brown said. “It was embarrassing.”

“I just didn’t have them ready to play,” coach Joe Mazzulla said.

The problems run deep in Boston, on both sides of the ball.

When Mazzulla took over as coach he wanted the Celtics to embrace the 3-ball more, including getting up at least 40 in Game 3. They did, but all those 3s come with variance — when the 3s fall the Celtics are almost unbeatable but when they don’t it could get ugly.

The Celtics were 11-of-42 (26.2%) from 3 in Game 3. The Heat were sharp and contesting shots, and the Celtics settled for too many no-dribble 3s that felt rushed. It was ugly.

So were the performances of their All-NBA stars. Jayson Tatum had 14 points on 6-of-18 shooting, Jaylen Brown 12 points and 6-of-17 shooting, and they combined for four assists and six turnovers. They drove into double- and triple-teams but did not find the open man and settled for a lot of contested shots.

As bad as the offense was, the Celtics’ drop-off in defense was harder to grasp.

Boston made the Finals a year ago on the back of an elite defense, and they were third in the NBA in defense during this regular season (even if, in part due to injuries, this year’s defense did not feel as intimidating as the past couple of year’s defense had been). It still took until deep in the second quarter before the Celtics through steady double-teams at Jimmy Butler, but by then they were in a deep hole (and not scoring enough to climb out of it).

Not sure there is enough bandwidth on the internet to list all the things that went wrong for Boston, and coach Joe Mazzulla has to take the blame for plenty of them (slow adjustments, the lack of timeouts during runs), but the missed wide-open 3s and the lack of urgency from a group of professional athletes is not on him.

Brad Stevens and the Celtics need to look in the mirror and answer some hard questions this summer.

2) Heat role players step up. Again.

When a reporter referred to the key roles undrafted players have in the Heat rotation last game, Erik Spoelstra stuck up for them saying don’t call Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin the undrafted guys, they have earned the right to be called NBA players. Quality NBA players.

He’s right. And those guys stepped up in Game 3.

Gabe Vincent scored 29 points on 11-of-14 shooting, Duncan Robinson scored 22 off the bench, Caleb Martin added 18, and Max Strus had 10.

If a team finds just one player like Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus or Gabe Vincent, it's a job well done.

The @MiamiHEAT have all four… and they've been SPECIAL in the East Finals 🔥 pic.twitter.com/KJLR0vouOl

— NBA (@NBA) May 22, 2023

Jimmy Butler added 16 points and eight rebounds. Bam Adebayo had a dunk fest.

BAM WAS THROWING IT DOWN IN GAME 3 😳

The @MiamiHEAT are up 3-0 in the East Finals. pic.twitter.com/pZv5jdMZN1

— NBA (@NBA) May 22, 2023

Championship teams, Finals teams get there both because their stars step up, but so do their role players. Miami has had plenty of that.

3) Jimmy Butler and the Heat were taunting (and they earned the right)

Jimmy Butler was talking trash. He has earned the right but he was clearly savoring it.

Butler pointed at Grant Williams after this bucket.

Jimmy pointed at Grant Williams after this bucket 😅 pic.twitter.com/iWm0vyIakx

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) May 22, 2023

And Butler remembered Horford’s timeout taunt from Game 1 and gave it right back to him.

Jimmy. Butler. Does. Not. Forget. 🔥pic.twitter.com/oBIPCrTFiR

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) May 22, 2023

We’ll see if Boston fights back or there will be more Heat trash talk in Game 4.

Malone’s story about aftermath of Murray’s ACL tear explains why Nuggets are on cusp of Finals

By Kurt HelinMay 21, 2023, 7:28 PM EDT

Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images

LOS ANGELES – The Denver Nuggets are one win away from the franchise’s first trip to the NBA Finals.

Jamal Murray, who dominated the fourth quarter of Game 2 and the first half of Game 3, is a key reason the Nuggets are on the doorstep of history.

His path to this moment — from being a breakout star in the bubble to tearing his ACL near the end of the 2021 season and the missed season of recovery — explains a lot about the Nuggets’ culture and why they are here. Denver coach Michael Malone talked about it in response to a postgame question from Rachel Nichols on Saturday.

“For Jamal, the biggest thing this year, Rachel, was getting healthy,” Malone said. “And then being back healthy and getting over the mental hurdle of reminding myself I can get back to not just the level I was at in the bubble, but how do I surpass that?

“I remember being in the bus with him, going to the airport after he did the [ACL] injury in Golden State, and the next day he has tears in his eyes, and that was the message [to him], ‘Hey, man, you’re going to come back from this and not only are you going to come back, you’re going to be better.’ And in that moment, it’s really hard to believe that.

“His first thought was, ‘Man, are you guys gonna trade me?’ Really, that was his [mindset], ‘I’m damaged goods, are you guys can trade me now?’ And I hugged him. I said, ‘Hell no.’ Like, you’re ours. We love you. We’re going to help you get back to maybe a better player for it. And I think what he’s doing in these playoffs, it’s just a reminder of a guy that we drafted seven years ago that has continued to find ways to improve and really show out on the biggest stage in the world.”

This is who the Nuggets are. And this is what makes an elite coach, more than Xs and Os, it’s about creating a culture that brings out the best in each player.

Plenty of teams would have realized they were on the verge of contending when Murray went down — the Nuggets were a trendy pick to make a deep playoff run in the weeks before the 2021 playoffs started, prior to the injury — and made panic moves to win now. Denver didn’t. They let Murray heal, Jokić had time grow, they made sure Michael Porter Jr. got healthy as well, and built out the roster around their core with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown, among others.

They got where they wanted to be, and in part because they were patient and stuck with their guys.

Austin Reaves is going to get paid, likely more than Lakers were hoping

By Kurt HelinMay 21, 2023, 5:29 PM EDT

Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images

The 2023 playoffs have made Austin Reaves a lot of money.

The 2023 playoffs also have shown why the Lakers need to pay Reaves that money to keep him, even if the price is higher than they wanted. While the Lakers are down 0-3 against the Nuggets, look at Reaves’ numbers from the series, points and true shooting percentage:

23 points, 73 TS%
22 points, 66.9 TS%
23 points, 91 TS%

Reaves has been a bright spot for the Lakers, and other teams are noticing, too. Marc Stein wrote this in a recent chat for subscribers of his newsletter.

Austin Reaves market … not clear yet. But there will definitely be a team or two that offers more than the Lakers want to spend. There will be at least one.

Nothing here is a surprise. Reaves has said he wants to stay with the Lakers, and even team governor Jeanie Buss has said she wants him to return. Other teams being interested is not news as well. The question is money, and with this being his first big contract, Reaves will not give a hometown discount (this is his first generational wealth contract).

The Lakers have Reaves Early Bird rights, but he is on a minimum contract, meaning the max they can offer him is four years, $50.8 million. As Stein notes, it is expected some team filled with young talent looking for guards — Orlando, perhaps, but there are others — will come in higher than that. The Lakers have the right to match any offer, but the Arenas Rule kicks in, making the second half of that contract far more painful.

For example, let’s say a team offers Reaves four years, $80 million (not out of the question the way he has looked these playoffs). On the books of Orlando (or whichever team makes the offer), it would be $20 million a year for four years. However, on the Lakers books they can’t go higher than the $11.4 million they could offer on their own this year. What that ultimately means is that in the Lakers’ payroll the first two years would be $11.4 million and $12.2 million, then the final two years of this hypothetical offer will see Reaves making more than $27 million a season. It is a poison pill contract.

The Lakers don’t have a choice and will pay it.

Reaves has become the secondary shot creator the Lakers hoped Russell Westbrook would be, and this postseason has shown his value. The Lakers will match any offer, it’s just going to be expensive and raises questions about their other free agents and decisions this summer: D'Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Lonnie Walker IV, Dennis Schroder, Troy Brown Jr. and more.

The Lakers have to pay up this summer to keep the core of this roster around LeBron James and Anthony Davis that works — this team looks like a contender and they should be all in on making another run next season. However, the bill will come due in a couple of years, and with the new CBA tying the hands of teams above the second tax apron (go more than $17.5 million over the luxury tax and teams can’t use any mid-level exception, can’t use the buyout market, can aggregate contracts in a trade, and much more) there are going to be hard choices. Eventually.

Whatever happens, Reaves will get paid.

Lakers, LeBron say right things facing 0-3 deficit, ‘Just gotta get one’

By Kurt HelinMay 21, 2023, 11:10 AM EDT

Keith Birmingham, Pasadena Star-News/ SCNG

LOS ANGELES — 0-149.

The record of NBA teams down 0-3 in a series — which the Lakers are after they dropped Game 3 at home Saturday night — is not good. But LeBron James and the Lakers are quick to point out the odds have been long against them all season, starting with their 2-12 start through them being the No. 13 seed as late as Feb. 25, yet here they are in the Western Conference Finals. So they are saying there’s a chance.

“Just gotta get one,” LeBron said after Game 3. “One at a time. So focus on Game 4. That’s all you can really think about. I mean obviously, this game is over and done with. We had some opportunities, but we didn’t come through. Just get ready for Monday. Just gotta get one. One-game series for us. Every game counts obviously.”

“Our backs been against the wall… probably the last two months. Maybe more than that,” Austin Reaves said. “We can either come out Monday and go home or fight for another day… With the group of guys we got, I know what the answer will be.”

Laker coach Darvin Ham was asked if the Lakers could come back from down 0-3.

“Absolutely,” Ham answered. “I mean, I think the deficit is 3-0, not four. So as long as they have not gotten to four yet, there’s still hope. We’re still alive. We just have to focus on winning one game.”

There have been 0-3 comebacks in other sports. The Red Sox famously did it to the Yankees in 2004 in the MLB American League Championship, and it’s happened four times in the NHL, most recently in 2014 when the Los Angeles Kings — playing in the same building as the Lakers — did it to the San Jose Sharks on their way to winning the Stanley Cup.

If the Lakers are going to make history, they have a lot of questions to answer, starting with how to slow Jamal Murray. The Nuggets have the two-time MVP in Nikola Jokić, but in this series, more importantly, have great depth of shooting that is straining the usually stout Lakers defense. Ham has thrown a lot of adjustments at the Nuggets (except for completely going away from D'Angelo Russell) and the Nuggets have answered every one.

It’s a big ask for the Lakers, but it starts with winning one game.

1) Miami is impressive, but this is an epic Boston collapse

2) Heat role players step up. Again.

3) Jimmy Butler and the Heat were taunting (and they earned the right)

Here is more on the Nuggets

Check out more on the Lakers

Check out more on the Lakers