Does all this television money on the table mean no lockout in 2017? Don’t bet on it.

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“We all have to serve someone… I feel like I work for the players, they are getting 51 percent, and we did a really good job for them, and the raising tide will raise all boats.”
—Ted Leonsis, Washington Wizards owner, worth an estimated $1 billion

It’s going to be hysterical during the 2017 NBA labor negotiations when some owner tries to plead financial hardship.

The numbers in the new NBA television deal are eye-popping — the deal will start with the NBA getting $2.1 billion a year in television revenue (up from around $900 million this year) and going up to $3.1 billion in nine years. The salary cap, currently at $63 million, will easily pass $90 million during the course of this deal. Owners, already seeing their franchise valuations skyrocket, now all should make money in the short term (unless they spend like the Nets last season) and have a lot more value in their teams.

Both the owners and players are going to get paid.

Is that enough money to keep there from being a 2017 lockout/strike? Are teams/players afraid of killing the golden goose?

Don’t bet on it.

I fear the best we fans can hope for is that it doesn’t end up costing any regular season games. Never underestimate anyone’s desire, no matter how rich, to get more money.

The current CBA came together after a lost summer and start of the season in 2011, with late night negotiations and lots of bad pizza eaten by media members staking out those meetings. It almost never came together, but in the end the owners got what they wanted — shorter contracts and the players’ share of league revenue down from 57 percent to 50 percent. That deal can be re-opened in 2017 and it expected at least the players and maybe the owners want to get back into it.

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver addressed the potential impact of the money on the CBA at the press conference announcing the new television deal.

“In terms of the impact on the CBA, our current deal says that the players receive 50-51 percent off the top so, a lion’s share of this money will be paid directly to the players,” Silver said. “So I think it bodes well in terms of the effectiveness of the current collective bargaining agreement…. There is a re-opener in three years and I’m sure both sides will be staying the impacts of this deal and seeking to ensure it will remain a fair deal for both sides.”

The players rightfully feel they got crushed in the last round of negotiations and with a new, more aggressive president in Chris Paul and a new union director in Michelle Roberts, it is expected the players will want givebacks.

Some suggest the players will go after getting one or two of those revenue percentage points back — that will lead to a lockout and a lost season for sure. The owners will not surrender that money. Nor will the owners say the players should get a share of the profits from any sale of a franchise, another idea that has been suggested.

What might the players push for? From ESPN’s Brian Windhorst:

That’s just one of many issues.

Meanwhile, there are owners that still want a hard salary cap and you can be sure Adam Silver will start there with his side of the negotiations. Again. Or they want the players’ share of revenue down to 45 percent. The players will never go for that, but there are some owners who would be willing to wait it out (especially if this television contract has them still getting paid in the event of a work stoppage).

What we really need to hope for is calmer heads. Ones who look at how much money is being split up, the potential of fan backlash (although there wasn’t really any after the 2011 lockout) and say, “What are we doing here?”

CBA expert and well connected writer Larry Coon thinks that can happen. He wrote in a recent live chat at BasketballInsiders.com that he didn’t think 2017 would be like 2011 just because now everyone is making more money.

“To start with, I think the players are going to opt out of the CBA. Their reasoning will be that they did their share when times were hard, but now they’re past the hard times, and they want some of their concessions back. Plus the new national TV deals will be going into place, and they will want to reap in some of that windfall as well.

“How will the owners react? Unlike 2011, when they would rather shut down the league than continue to play under an unsustainable system, the owners will be more inclined not to kill the goose that lays the golden egg. I think they will be much more amenable to finding some middle ground with the players, and therefore I’m thinking there will be a new agreement in place in time for the season to start as scheduled. So no — I don’t think the league will miss games in 2017.”

Let’s hope.

Report: Udoka used ‘crude language’ with female subordinate prior to improper relationship

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The Boston Celtics handled the Ime Udoka investigation and suspension by the corporate handbook: They kept the woman’s name out of the news, kept details confidential (not even telling the players much for legal reasons), and acted swiftly and decisively.

But as the team on the court starts defending its Eastern Conference title, there has been a concern that details leaking out about the investigations — and responses to those leaks — could turn this into a season-long drama and distraction for the team. That first started on Friday when Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN reported this:

The independent law firm probe into Boston Celtics coach Ime Udoka found that he used crude language in his dialogue with a female subordinate prior to the start of an improper workplace relationship with the woman, an element that significantly factored into the severity of his one-year suspension, sources told ESPN.

Those investigative findings — which described verbiage on Udoka’s part that was deemed especially concerning coming from a workplace superior — contribute to what is likely a difficult pathway back to his reinstatement as Celtics coach in 2023, sources told ESPN.

A few thoughts here.

• “Crude language” is just part of a more detailed and damning report, league sources have told NBC Sports. There is much more uncovered by the independent investigation, including about the power dynamic in play. It was enough that the Celtics thought the best move was to suspend for an entire season a coach loved by players who led the team to the NBA Finals (it’s not something the Celtics organization did lightly).

• As Wojnarowski and others have noted, it’s increasingly unlikely Udoka returns to coach the Celtics next season, even if that is not yet official.

• While some pundits and people around the league have said Udoka is “done,” the NBA has seen unexpected turnarounds before. Never say never in this league.

• About the only sure thing is that this story is not over.

Lillard poised to pass Drexler as Trail Blazers all-time leading scorer

2022-23 Portland Trail Blazers Media Day
Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images
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Damian Lillard could have done what a lot of NBA stars have done — what a lot of them told him to do while recruiting him — and has chosen to stay in Portland. He wants to be remembered as the greatest Trail Blazer ever.

One good way to do that: Become the franchise’s all-time leading scorer. Sometime around Thanksgiving or a little after, Lillard will do just that, passing Hall of Famer Clyde Drexler and his 18,040 points (Lillard is 531 back).

Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports spoke to Lillard about when he knew the record was within reach, during Trail Blazers training camp in Santa Barbara, California (go Gauchos!). It was when Lillard got to 10,000 points.

“I was like, ‘Damn, I got 10,000 already?’ ” Lillard told Yahoo Sports he recalled at the time. “It was my sixth season in the league. That’s when I started thinking, if I could be consistent, I could score into the high 20,000-point range. As a scorer, 20,000 points is always looked at as a special mark. From that moment, I knew it was possible, but it’s also when I first researched Clyde Drexler’s [scoring] record with the team.”

Drexler is good with being passed by Lillard.

“You and I know records are made to be broken, but I can’t think of a better player or person to break the record than Dame,” Drexler told Yahoo Sports. “He exemplifies being a team player and going about his business in a professional way. I have nothing but admiration and respect for him. When he comes close to getting the record, and if our schedules align, I would love to be there to help out in any way I can. That’s a nice milestone to achieve. I am looking forward to him accomplishing that.”

Lillard is on a lot of front office people’s watch list this season, as in “how long before he is unhappy and asks for a trade?” The thing is, Lillard has been on that list for years and he keeps choosing Portland — he isn’t looking to leave. Of course, the $120 million extension and a retooling of the roster around him helped with that decision, but Lillard always had other options if he wanted them (and at times it felt like he would take them).

The Trail Blazers brought in Jerami Grant, re-signed Anfrenee Simons, and will put them with a solid core of others such as (a finally healthy) Jusuf Nurkic, Josh Hart, Gary Payton II and others. It’s a good roster, the question is how good in a deep West?

There are a lot of questions about how this season shakes out in Portland, but the one seeming sure thing is Lillard becoming the Trail Blazers’ all-time leading scorer. And that seems fitting.

Suns update: Ayton blames Sarver for contract, Crowder conflict, Johnson to start

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Phoenix went to the NBA Finals two seasons ago and had the most wins in the NBA last season, yet dark clouds seem to be blocking out the Suns heading into this NBA season.

Here’s the latest on three situations with the Suns: Deandre Ayton‘s contract frustration, why Jae Crowder is asking out, and who starts at the four now.

• Ayton ended up signing a four-year, $132.9 max contract and will be back with the Suns to start this season, but the road to get there was rocky. The Suns would not offer Ayton a max five-year contract extension, his name kept coming up in Kevin Durant trade rumors, so Ayton went out and got a four-year max offer from the Pacers — which the Suns instantly matched. Phoenix saved $40 million and a guaranteed year, but the process left Ayton a little bitter.

Ayton blames outgoing owner Robert Sarver — a notorious penny pincher as an owner (among other, much worse things) — Marc Spears and Ramona Shelburne of ESPN discussed on NBA Today (hat tip Real GM).

“That is certainly something that caused the ire of him,” said Marc J. Spears. “I was told that it was Robert Sarver who didn’t want to give him that fifth year, who wanted to save the money.”

“My understanding from talking to people close to Deandre is that he thinks this was Robert Sarver’s decision as well. And Robert Sarver’s not going to be the owner anymore. So there is some healing that can happen there. But I know there were some hurt feelings over that contract and how that played out.

“If they were going to instantly match an offer sheet that he signed, why not just give him the max contract? Yes, it saved them a year and $40 million but as somebody close to Deandre told me ‘There’s a karma to this. Why do that to your No. 1 overall pick?'”

Shelburne hit the nail on the head — the NBA is a business, but it’s a business of relationships. Not only did the Suns sour theirs with Ayton, but you can also be sure every other agent around the league noticed how that was handled. It doesn’t help when recruiting players. The eventual new owner, whoever it ends up being, has a lot of work to change the franchise’s perception.

• Jae Crowder remains away from the Suns during training camp awaiting a trade (which reportedly will not be to Dallas). Crowder started 109 games for the Suns during the past two seasons and was a key part of their run to the NBA Finals, so how did things deteriorate so quickly? Marc Stein lays it out in his latest Substack newsletter.

Entering the final season of his current contract at $10.2 million, Jae Crowder let the Suns know that he was seeking a contract extension. League sources say that the Suns’ messaging, in response, was to let Crowder know that, at 32, he was no longer assured of starting or finishing games ahead of Cam Johnson. That gulf between the parties led Crowder to seek an exit from the desert that has landed him on indefinite mutual leave from the team until Phoenix can find a trade for him.

While Miami gets mentioned as a suitor a lot, it’s next to impossible to put together a trade that works for both sides right now (at the trade deadline, maybe, but Crowder isn’t going to be with the Suns that long). Cleveland is currently the hot name in league circles when talking Crowder trades, and Stein also mentions the Milwaukee Bucks, who have been looking for a P.J. Tucker-like replacement for P.J Tucker. But, do any of these teams want to extend Crowder at age 32?

• Suns coach Monty Williams confirmed what Crowder heard — Cameron Johnson will start at the four for the Suns this season.

Johnson brings better shooting to the table — 42.5% last season on 3-pointers — and is more athletic at this point, but Crowder brings better defense, toughness, and veteran savvy that can be trusted in the playoffs. The Suns may miss that when it matters, but Johnson will get the chance to prove us all wrong.

Blake Griffin agrees to join Boston Celtics on one-year deal

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According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, Blake Griffin has agreed to join the Boston Celtics on a one-year contract which will be fully guaranteed.

The Celtics were desperate for frontcourt depth following injuries to Danilo Gallinari and Robert Williams, as Luke Kornet was even getting some run with the starting group at training camp.

You do have to wonder just how much the 33-year-old Griffin has left in the tank though. Last season with the Brooklyn Nets, Griffin only managed to play 17.1 minutes per game and his 3-point percentage dropped like a stone to 26%. He was also a major liability on defense, and the Celtics surely know that after Jaylen Brown drove by him with ease time and time again during the postseason.

Griffin was still an effective playmaker and that may make him a good fit with the second unit alongside the likes of Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White and Grant Williams with all of these capable of handling the ball. Injuries and Father Time have zapped Griffin’s athleticism, but if anyone can squeeze the last bit of value out of him, I’d bet on Brad Stevens and the Celtics.