As we move into late August most of the NBA player moves are set, save for the formality of Kevin Love ending up with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
But there are two big restricted free agents out there — Greg Monroe and Eric Bledsoe. Both have yet to strike a deal with their teams or to find another team that will make a big offer (other teams held off largely because they believed the Pistons and Suns would just match the offer). Both are threatening to play for the qualifying offer and become unrestricted free agents next summer, but that is a big risk.
Meanwhile some other restricted free agents this summer — Gordon Hayward leads the list — got big offers and to max out the deal.
So who could be the guys next summer who are restricted free agents? Already Kyrie Irving is off the list because he got a max extension from the Cavaliers. Here are five guys to watch.
• Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors: The brain trust for the Warriors refused to put him in a deal for Kevin Love, so now the pressure is on him to step up his already impressive game and perform. Oh, and the Warriors have to sign him. There’s almost zero chance the Warriors don’t keep him one way or another. He’s going to make eight figures a year, the question is if the deal gets done or if he goes to restricted free agency. If he does, he could end up in a Bledsoe/Monroe situation where he has a hard time getting offers from other teams because everyone thinks the Warriors will just match.
• Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs: We laid out the case why the Spurs may want to wait on making a max offer to Leonard, but they will at one point to the Finals MVP and (like Thompson) there is almost zero chance his team lets him go. That said, if he gets all the way to restricted free agency you can bet a bunch of teams will come calling.
• Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets: Denver likes Faried and the energy he brings, but they fear the healthy contract he will get on the open market will be more than they want to pay, so they have shopped him around a little. If he isn’t moved, Fraried’s camp is going to want more than Denver wants to pay and his agent is going to have to draw the offer he wants (max or near it) from another team and force Denver to match. He could be the most interesting guy likely to get to restricted free agency next summer.
• Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves: Former Wolves GM David Kahn helped screw up the franchise’s relationship with Kevin Love by refusing to give Love a full five-year max contract extension because you can only have one of those going at a time and Kahn wanted to save it for Rubio. Well done. Rubio’s camp is rumored to want a max deal and Rubio has been a pretty good NBA point guard — he can defend, he’s a gifted passer and has done well at running a team. But his shot keeps him from being a max guy. If no deal on an extension is reached how well Rubio plays next season on a team with young talent around him will determine what the market will offer next summer. But if he wants max he’s going to be disappointed.
• Tobias Harris, Orlando Magic: He has shown some real promise and he will have some suitors next summer if Orlando lets him get all the way to restricted free agency (and the way they are rebuilding I would think they do). If Harris has another strong season you can bet a number of teams will see him as a guy they can poach, a quality forward they can get for years to come. In that situation, the Magic may have to open up the wallet and pay a little.