Bill Simmons’ quasi-reported the Rockets would pursue LeBron James if he terminates his contract with the Heat.
Now, LeBron joining Dwight Howard and James Harden in Houston is gaining momentum – and credibility?
League sources say that Houston is preparing to make an all-out push to land James when free agency opens on July 1, assuming James opts out, as expected. If the Rockets miss out on James, they will turn their full attention to Carmelo Anthony. Chris Bosh is also on the radar.
There are rumblings that James will start weighing his options this weekend. One rival executive pegged his chances of leaving Miami at 40 percent.
Beck lists a four-point plan he says would give Houston about $19 million in cap room
- Trade Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin – who are each owed nearly $15 million in actual salary next season – without returning salary
- Trade Donatas Motiejunas and Isaiah Canaan without returning salary
- Waive a few players with non-guaranteed deals
- Decline team option Chandler Parsons and re-sign him as a restricted free agent after LeBron signs
The Rockets say they can deal Asik and Lin without taking back salary, so we’ll take their word on that for now.
Motiejunas and Canaan are good enough and cheap enough that someone would probably take them if offered.
As far as the non-guaranteed deals, Beck is presumably referring to Omri Casspi, Robert Covington and Troy Daniels (who actually has a team option, which requires a decision by June 30, meaning Houston would have to drop him before ever legally speaking to LeBron). Patrick Beverley also has a non-guaranteed contract, but Beck names him a starter alongside LeBron in this scenario, so he obviously wouldn’t get waived.
Declining Parsons’ team option would actually increase the amount he counts against the cap, and he could always get impatient and sign an offer sheet elsewhere before Houston signs LeBron. But apparently that’s the plan, so I’m just rolling with the report.
Do all that, and the Rockets would be $17,265,007 below the projected salary cap – not the $19 million Beck says.
Signing into the cap space Beck’s plan would actually create would cost LeBron more than $14 million over four years relative to what he could get in a max deal with any team outside Miami. It would also be $45 million less than he could get on a five-year max deal by re-signing with the Heat.
By comparison, LeBron gave up less than $14 million below his max deal when signing with the Heat in 2010 – and loss was spread over six years rather than four.
Back then, he organized a sign-and-trade to get a higher salary, but it doesn’t work that way anymore. Whether or not the Rockets land LeBron in a sign-and-trade or an outright signing, they can offer him the same salary.
LeBron might take a pay cut to join Houston, but let’s not pretend it’s a trivial reduction.
The Rockets could create more cap room by convincing Francisco Garcia to opt out or trade him if he doesn’t (Beck doesn’t mention him). They could also waive or trade Beverly and/or Terrence Jones, another player Beck names as holding role in Houston.
Picking up Parsons’ team option would also add cap room, but good luck walking back the offer to give Parsons a raise this year rather than next year. In the name of LeBron, it’s probably worth upsetting Parsons, but that’s just one of many complications.
But at the same time, he and the Rockets can use each other.
LeBron can show interest in Houston to persuade Micky Arison to spend more. The Rockets can parlay LeBron’s intrigue into a perception Houston is a desirable markets for superstars. Howard and Harden help, but LeBron carries more weight than anyone.
Heck, the Rockets don’t even need LeBron to actually show interest. Reports like Beck’s already help establish their credibility.
As for Bosh and Melo, are they just supposed to wait while LeBron talks to Houston?
Bosh faces the same salary situation as LeBron. Plus, if LeBron rejects the Rockets to re-sign in Miami, Bosh very likely follows him back.
And I’ll say it until I’m red in the face, unless the cap comes in higher than projected, the Rockets could trim their roster to just Howard and Harden and still couldn’t offer Melo a max contract. That’s not necessarily a deal-breaker, but it’s a roadblock.
There are a lot of roadblock in this whole plan.
Daryl Morey has big ambitions, which is good for the Rockets. But we need to acknowledge this one is pretty unlikely to come to fruition.