Predicting the No. 1 pick in this NBA Draft before Tuesday night’s draft lottery is impossible — there is not a consensus between Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid….
Or is there? Veteran NBA reporter Mark Heisler, writing for Forbes, has this note coming out of the Chicago pre-draft combine last week.
If there’s no consensus No. 1 pick in the press, one super prospect emerged in the minds of the NBA people I talked to. That was Embiid, the 7-0, 250-pound (as listed by Kansas) freshman who started around No. 5 on sheer size and raw potential and realized enough of it to rocket to No. 1 in mid-season when a GM told me, “His ceiling is Hakeem Olajuwon. His basement is Serge Ibaka.”
Said GM comment came before Embiid missed the end of the season and the NCAA Tournament with a stress fracture in his back — the second time in two years he had that injury. A lot of Embiid’s draft status comes down to what team doctors find when they get a closer look at is back.
This all feels like a smoke screen to PBT’s draft expert Ed Isaacson of the NBAdraftblog.com and Rotoworld.
“Embiid may be a popular pick among NBA executives if he is healthy, but with that still outstanding, and with none of the top players having been brought in by teams yet, any opinion is far from set in stone. Once the draft order is known tonight, we will have a better idea of what player may be the best fit for the team at #1, but with many teams who have a good shot desperate to get this right, expect teams to take their time up to the draft making their decision.
“Also, NBA executives do not like giving their draft thoughts out, even if they are unnamed. The “smoke screen” quotes from executives will increase over the coming weeks and we will hear Embiid, Wiggins, and Parker all become “popular” picks at #1. Each offers something different to a team, and legitimate arguments can be made for all of them. This may all be a case of executives saying Embiid because it is very safe to say you like the 7-footer who has a ton of untapped potential.”
We will likely have a better idea who goes No. 1 as the Draft itself gets close… then again we thought we had an idea last year and Cleveland chose Anthony Bennett. A lot of things could happen here.