NBA Playoff Previews: Pacers/Hawks Game 5, and Spurs desperate for a win

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Three games on tap Monday night and two of them should be fascinating — Atlanta and Indiana in a crucial Game 5, and the Spurs down 2-1 to Dallas will be desperate for a win.

Miami Heat at Charlotte Bobcats (Heat lead series 3-0). Can the Bobcats win one? That’s really the only question left in this series. They can — they have played Miami tough twice in this series, they can have another close game. But what they really need is one of those Miami Heat on a mental vacation nights. You know Charlotte will bring their best effort, but if LeBron James and Dwyane Wade come ready to really close this thing out there is not a whole lot Charlotte can do.

Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers (series tied 2-2). Indiana has home court advantage and full control of its destiny back — if they can build upon the win in Game 4 in Atlanta. Building on any success is not something the Pacers have done well for the better part of a month. Vogel needs to continue to go with the small lineup of David West and Luis Scola — that means benching Roy Hibbert for long stretches — and they need Paul George to continue to play well. Atlanta needs to play the game at a faster pace, not let the Pacers grind it down, and they need another monster night from Jeff Teague. Atlanta has won in Indy already in this series, do it again and they control their destiny.

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks (Dallas leads series 2-1). The book on Dallas was they needed big nights from Dirk Nowitzki to beat the Spurs, and for the last two games Nowitzki has been held to fewer than 20 points thanks to great defense from Tiago Splitter. Yet Dallas has still won because Monta Ellis, Shawn Marion, Vince Carter, Devin Harris and the other Mavs have stepped up. Dallas needs that again, San Antonio needs to tighten up its defensive rotations and slow those other guys. Tony Parker needs a big game — he should own Jose Calderon and the rest of the Mavs point guard matchups. I expect we will see a more familiar Spurs team in Game 4 and an even series when this game is over… but Dallas keeps surprising me.

Draymond Green guarantees Warriors will beat Rockets in Western Conference finals

AP Photo/David J. Phillip
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Warriors coach Steve Kerr is confident despite his team trailing the Rockets 3-2 in the Western Conference finals.

Golden State forward Draymond Green goes further.

Green, via Marcus Thompson II of The Athletic:

“We still winning this,” Draymond Green said. “Book it.”

Of course, Green is confident. He’d never say he expects his team to lose.

But he didn’t need to frame it this way. He could’ve said he was just focused on the next game rather than make such a bold proclamation.

He’s taking pressure upon himself and putting his reputation on the line. If Golden State loses, especially in Game 6 at home with Chris Paul out, Green will be widely mocked.

If he and the Warriors pull through, he’ll probably deserve praise for setting a tone that helped them advance.

Danny Green: Kawhi Leonard told me he wants to stay with Spurs

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The Spurs are reportedly worried Kawhi Leonard‘s camp wants to get him to the Lakers, Clippers, Knicks or 76ers.

Leonard hasn’t said much himself – except apparently to San Antonio teammate Danny Green

Get Up on ESPN:

Green:

I talk to him here and there, check up on him, see how he’s doing.

I think he wants to be in San Antonio. He’s let me know that. He’s let me know verbally he wanted to be there. So, we’ll see what happens.

Green has tried playing peacemaker throughout this saga – going as far as denying tension that clearly exists. He’s not the most reliable source.

And even if Leonard explicitly told Green he wants to remain in San Antonio, I’m not sure Leonard is confrontational enough to tell Green he wanted out, even if he did.

Those caveats acknowledged, this could be a huge revelation.

If Leonard wants to stay with the Spurs, the next step is meeting with them, mending their relationship and convincing them he deserves a super-max extension (which projects to be worth $219 million over five years). No matter how Leonard feels about San Antonio right now, if the Spurs don’t trust investing so much in him, that could lead to a fractured relationship and his exit.

So, there’s still a lot to sort out. But Green saying this means something.

LeBron James flips elimination-game game on its head

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His Cavaliers down 3-2 to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals, how does LeBron James assess his situation?

"I don’t enjoy being in the position where it’s you lose and go home," LeBron said before Game 6 tonight in Cleveland.

He might not enjoy this position, but he’s pretty good in it.

Since he first reached the playoffs in 2006, other teams have won 26% of their elimination games. LeBron’s teams have won 57% of theirs.

Of course, LeBron hasn’t gone 12-9 in elimination games just because he’s lucky. He has willed his team off the mat numerous times.

LeBron has scored 40 points and/or had a triple-double in six straight elimination games, winning five of them. His line in his last elimination game before that streak? Just 32 points, 18 rebounds and nine assists.

A full history of LeBron’s elimination games:

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Rockets played with fire with Chris Paul, got burned

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Chris Paul played 79 minutes in three days.

Prior to Games 4 and 5 of these Western Conference finals, he hadn’t done that in more than two years. He hadn’t done it without both games going to overtime in more than three years.

The Rockets leaned heavily on the 33-year-old Paul, and they’ll pay the price.

Paul will miss Game 6 against the Warriors tomorrow. Given how quickly Houston ruled out Paul with a strained hamstring, he seems unlikely to play in a potential Game 7 Monday.

Injuries are somewhat – but not completely – random. Players are more susceptible when worn down. After missing the close of the 2016 postseason, Paul missed 45 games the last two regular seasons. He has accumulated a lot of mileage in his 13-year career.

Yet, Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni drastically shortened his rotation, anyway. Not only did Paul play big minutes in this series, he shouldered a huge load. He took the reins of the offense at times, allowing James Harden to conserve energy for defense, while maintaining his own strong-two way play. That’s never easy, especially in these high-intensity games.

This was the risk.

We can feel bad for Paul and his predicament. We can also acknowledge Houston got this far by gambling on Paul’s health.

That’s not to say it was a bad bet. This is what you save him for, the biggest playoff series of his career and maybe one of the last before he exits his prime. The Rockets would have been far worse off to this point resting Paul extensively and protecting him. Even with such a heavy workload, an injury was never fait accompli. And Houston got plenty from Paul before he went down. He was instrumental to wins in Game 4 and Game 5 that gave the Rockets a 3-2 lead in the Western Conference finals.

Now, they just must hope that’s enough of a head-start into a world of playing without Paul.