Josh Smith on pace for worst 3-point-shooting season in NBA history, but only because he’s playing smarter

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Josh Smith is on pace for the worst 3-point-shooting season in NBA history.

That was the case recently made by Sean Corp of Detroit Bad Boys and backed by Kyle Wagner of Deadspin.

There are varying potential cutoffs, but here’s how it stacks up: In NBA history, players have attempted at least 200 3-pointers in a season 1,626 times. Currently, Antoine Walker ranks last among them with a 25.6 3-point percentage in 1999-00. Smith – on pace to comfortably clear the bar with 303 3-point attempts – is shooting 23.9 percent from beyond the arc this season.

Undeniably, Smith is guilty of Corp’s and Wagner’s charge.

But it doesn’t matter.

Smith is playing smarter, and instead of mocking him for how that has affected his 3-point percentage, we should celebrate his wiser approach.

For years, the statistically inclined have shouted about the inefficiency of long 2-pointers relative to 3-pointers while at the same time, fairly, belittling players like Smith.

He got the message.

Smith is taking 44 percent of his shots from at least 16 feet, right in line with his recent career history.

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Here’s the real difference. Smith is taking 56 percent of those long shots from beyond the arc – by far a career high.

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Why does that matter? Because Smith, like most players, typically scores more points per 3-point attempt (blue) than long-2-point attempt (red).

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This season, as you can see, Smith has actually scored slightly more per 3-point attempt than long-2-point attempt, but that’s an aberration unlikely to continue. It’s happened just twice before in his career – his rookie year, when 3-pointers really weren’t in his repertoire (4-for-23 on the season) and 2010, when he famously “stopped” shooting 3s (0-for-7 on the season).

In a larger sample, it’s just extremely rare that a player scores more points per shot on long 2s than 3s. Of the 150 players who’ve taken at least 30 long 2s and 30 3s this season, 140 (93 percent) score more points per 3-pointer than long 2-pointer.*

*The exceptions: Smith, Andrea Bargnani,Ersan Ilyasova,Andrew Nicholson,J.J. Redick,Jeff Teague,Jared Sullinger,Tobias Harris,Amir Johnson andGreivis Vasquez

 

It’s just unlikely Smith bucks this trend over the entire season. Even if his 3-point percentage remains historically low, it will likely rise at least enough to make his 3s more efficient than his long 2s. He can get a little more comfortable with his new approach, shoot a little better from beyond the arc than he is now and still fall below Antoine Walker’s record.

But here’s the remarkable part: Even while on pace to set this record, Smith is producing about the same number of points per shot from at least 16 feet as he usually does:

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Smith’s 3-point percentage is a problem only insofar as there’s a column in the box score for 3-pointers and not for shots from at least 16 feet.

Look at that above graph again. The season Smith scored the fewest points per shot from beyond 16 feet, by far, was 2010 – the year he was celebrated for eliminating 3-pointers from his game. But he kept taking long 2s that year. It’s just that nobody noticed because they show up in the box score the same as dunks and layups.

Smith is producing from the perimeter just like he usually does. That’s far from a great standard, but on a Pistons team that features Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe on the interior, someone needs to try to space the floor. Smith is a better perimeter shooter than those two.

In an ideal world, Smith would never take jump shots, but that’s an unrealistic fantasy on any team – especially this Pistons team.

As long as Smith is taking jumpers, let’s credit him for increasingly taking the right ones – 3s, not long 2s – instead of just mocking his 3-point percentage.

Then, after that, we can all share a good laugh about his 3-point percentage this season being lower than Andray Blatche’s.

Physical therapist: LeBron James should have missed six months

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The Lakers initially called LeBron James day-to-day with the groin injury he suffered on Christmas.

He missed more than five weeks.

Maybe he should have sat even longer.

Karen Joubert, via Complex Sports:

Maybe LeBron returned too soon. This injury allowed that, even if it put him at risk of reaggravation if not fully recovered.

Maybe LeBron just healed especially quickly. Even among world-class athletes, he is an elite athlete.

Maybe Joubert is exaggerating. People tend to do that with LeBron’s body.

There’s plenty of room for interpretation, but it sure looked like LeBron was still hobbled.

What does this mean for LeBron and the Lakers going forward?

The pessimistic spin: LeBron did lasting damage to his body by returning so soon. This (failed) attempt to get the Lakers into the playoffs this season will undermine him in the future.

The optimistic spin: LeBron has still been excellent these last few weeks. If he gets fully healthy during his longest offseason in 14 years, he should be even better next season.

Kyrie Irving on whether returning to Cleveland means something to him: ‘Not at all’

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Kyrie Irving spent his first six seasons with the Cavaliers. He developed into a star with them. He won a title with them, even hitting the championship-winning shot.

With Irving’s Celtics playing in Cleveland tomorrow, Irving reflected on his time there.

Jared Weiss of The Athletic:

Irving is so clearly over the Cavs.

He was probably over the Cavs even while playing for them.

Lakers fan barely moves net while making halfcourt shot (video)

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The Lakers have had a rough season.

Last night went pretty well, though – especially for one fan.

The Lakers beat the Kings, and this fan swished a halfcourt shot to win $45,000.

CJ Fogler:

The Lakers need more outside shooting. Maybe they could turn to some of their fans.

Giannis Antetokounmpo drives past/through all the Cavaliers for dunk (video)

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Giannis Antetokounmpo is undeniable.

Watch this video. He’s the only Bucks player in sight on the court. All five Cavaliers appear. Antetokounmpo dunks anyway.

He dribbles past Jordan Clarkson then through David Nwaba and Tristan Thompson. Nik Stauskas and Brandon Knight are shading close enough to narrow his potential path. None of it matters.

Antetokounmpo scores inside unlike anyone anyone we’ve ever seen.