ProBasketballTalk 2013-14 Preview: The Memphis Grizzlies

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Last season: After totaling up 56 wins in the regular season, the Memphis Grizzlies got sweet revenge over the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round, then extinguished a short-handed Oklahoma City Thunder team before finally falling to the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. This was the best season in franchise history by a large margin.

Signature highlight from last season: Tayshaun Prince invites you to bring your whole crew.

Key player changes:

IN: Mike Miller, Kosta Koufos, Jamaal Franklin, Nick Calathes.

OUT: Austin Daye, Darrell Arthur, Tony Wroten.

Considering the tiny amount of wiggle room the Grizzlies had under the luxury cap, there were some great additions made.

Kosta Koufos is one of the most underrated centers in the game, and he’ll mesh with Ed Davis and Zach Randolph much better than Darrell Arthur did. Nick Calathes has been one of the best players overseas the last few years, and getting a distributing backup point guard with size is another good fit. Jamaal Franklin could be scary in a few years if he stays glued to Tony Allen. There’s a lot of defensive potential there.

Mike Miller could be the biggest addition come playoff time, as the perimeter-shooting starved Grizzlies will welcome his presence as a floor-spacer when the games really matter.

The Grizzlies lost very little and made some very nice additions to the bench on the cheap. This might be the deepest team in the league.

Keys to the Grizzlies’ season:

1. Are the minor tweaks enough? 

The Grizzlies got better this offseason, but was it enough? Despite having one of the league’s best defenses last year, this was still a team that sputtered offensively late in the postseason and was just the 17th ranked offense in efficiency during the season. The Grizzlies have gone against the grain for a while now, but placing last in three-point makes and attempts might not be good enough to take out the best of the best when the defense really steps up in the playoffs.

2. What’s in the cards for Zach Randolph?

We know the Grizzlies front office isn’t afraid to trade a big piece after the Rudy Gay trade, and the tax concerns in Memphis are very real. Ed Davis is on tap for an extension or a big offer in restricted free agency next season, and keeping both Davis and Randolph on the books next year would be very difficult. Randolph is still a valuable piece, but he may be in decline and Memphis will lose leverage the longer they wait on a deal. Could another blockbuster be on tap this year?

3. Was the decision to let go Lionel Hollins for Dave Joerger the right one?

Hollins may not have always been on board with the decisions of the front office, but to his credit, his teams always defended and played hard. Joerger should be able to get the same from a veteran roster, but whether he can improve the sometimes baffling rotations and game-management in his first season as a head coach will be interesting to watch. Memphis was the league’s slowest team last season in pace, but Joerger has said repeatedly that he wants to speed it up. Will that turn out to be coach-speak or a real strategy that jump starts a below-average offense?

Why you should watch the Grizzlies: Marc Gasol is a bonafide basketball genius. Spend a whole game watching just him, and you’ll marvel at his positioning and decision-making. Tony Allen adds the perfect amount of unpredictability to a predictably stifling defense, and Mike Conley’s growing comfort level has led to more eye-popping plays. The Grizzlies are like a smart indie movie — the aesthetics may not always be on par with the competition, but it’s nuanced enough to be wholly enjoyable.

Prediction: 54 wins, the 4th seed and a second round exit. The Grizzlies are incredibly deep and will enjoy plenty of regular season success thanks to that defense, but the possible decline of the starting forwards (Tayshaun Prince and Zach Randolph) and the strength at the top of the Western Conference might make a deep playoff run difficult. Once we see what the Grizzlies do at the deadline, if anything at all, we should have a better idea of their playoff outlook.

Report: Knicks, who have No. 3 pick, to work out Darius Garland

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Duke forward R.J. Barrett is the consensus No. 3 prospect in the upcoming NBA draft. He wants to join the Knicks. The Knicks have the No. 3 pick.

Perfect match?

Maybe not.

Jonathan Givony of ESPN:

Maybe this is just New York doing its due diligence. The Knicks could also be trying to drum up trade interest among teams that want Garland.

But this feels a little like 2015, when Jahlil Okafor was the consensus No. 2 prospect for most of the pre-draft process but D'Angelo Russell emerged late as the Lakers’ No. 2 pick.

Barrett is a flawed prospect. He didn’t hit jumpers efficiently at Duke. His decision-making is suspect. He’s too left-handed dominant. He rarely uses his defensive tools. There’s a lot to like, to be sure. Barrett has nice size, athleticism and physicality. He’s a good ball-handler and playmaker. He seems built for a leading role.

But it wouldn’t shock me if a team likes Garland more. The point guard is a knockdown shooter with the ball-handling and footwork to get that shot off. He needs work as a distributor and lacks Barrett’s defensive potential.

Garland might not be as good as Barrett right now. But Garland’s path to success might be a little more projectable.

Harrison Barnes declining $25,102,512 player option with Kings

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Harrison Barnes‘ salary was so high, he became a talking point in the debate about WNBA salaries.

But he’s so confident he’ll get a better deal, he’s leaving $25,102,512 on the table with the Kings.

James Ham of NBC Sports California:

If they renounce all their free agents, the Kings project to have about $60 million in cap space – likely more than they know what do with.

They could re-sign Barnes. By trading for him last year, they indicated they value him more than the rest of the league does.

Even if he settles for a lower salary next season than his player option called for, this could be the 27-year-old Barnes’ opportunity to secure a long-term deal. He’s a solid outside shooter and, even if he’s better at power forward, capable of playing small forward in a league thirsty for wings.

Sacramento could definitely use a player like him.

Can the Kings lure someone better, either this summer or – if they keep their books clean – a future year? Unless way overpaid, free agents have tended to avoid Sacramento. But the rapidly improving De'Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield are leading a turnaround.

Barnes’ free agency could be a good litmus test for the Kings’ reputation now. Can they convince him to continue his role on a rising team? Will they have to pay a premium to keep him? Or does he just want to leave?

Report: Anthony Davis intends to receive full trade bonus

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The Lakers are reportedly on track to trade for Anthony Davis on July 6 – the date an important distinction in determining the Lakers’ cap space.

The other key question: Will Davis take his full $4,063,953 trade bonus?

The Pelicans will pay the bonus. It will count against the Lakers’ cap.

Especially considering Davis requested a trade, New Orleans could have pressed him to waive the trade bonus in order to accommodate him. Likewise, the Lakers – his desired team – could have made the deal contingent on Davis waiving the trade bonus.

Ramona Shelburne on ESPN:

My understanding is he doesn’t intend to waive that. He’s due the four million dollars, and he’s going to keep it. But again, as you just noted in that monologue, things can change.

If he takes the full bonus, Davis’ salary next season will increase from $27,093,018 to $31,156,971. And good for him. He earned the trade kicker in his contract.

This also supports agent Rich Paul’s contention that he puts Davis’ interests first while representing Davis, not catering to fellow client LeBron James. Because while the extra money is nice for Davis, this hurts LeBron’s Lakers.

The Lakers now project to have just $24 million in cap room. They can still get a helpful player or two, but $28 million would have gone further.

I wonder whether the Pelicans prefer to pay Davis’ bonus. Though a $4,063,953 check is nothing to sneeze at, tying up the Lakers’ cap space has value with New Orleans getting so many future draft picks from Los Angeles. Maybe the Pelicans have already made Davis getting his full bonus an essential aspect of this trade.

If not, the Lakers have a week before the Davis trade can become official to pitch free agents. Perhaps, if they line up certain free agents and show him the spending power of that extra money, Davis would waive all or some of his trade bonus.

But I wouldn’t blame him if he wants his money and puts the onus on the Lakers to build a strong team, anyway. That’d sounds a lot like another Paul client.

Kawhi Leonard leaving NBA-champion Raptors would be unlike anything we’ve ever seen

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Many Raptors fans hoped Kawhi Leonard would use yesterday’s championship parade to declare his plan to re-sign with Toronto.

They got a laugh and not much else.

But they can be heartened – or maybe eventually heartbroken –a by this: Stars almost never switched teams immediately following a title.

Before this year, there have been…

  • 49 Finals MVPs who won a championship. None switched teams that offseason.
  • 147 All-Stars who won a championship. None switched teams that offseason.
  • 124 All-NBA players who won a championship. Only one switched teams that offseason.

In 1998, Scottie Pippen got signed-and-traded from the Bulls to the Rockets. He was neither an All-Star nor Finals MVP that year, but he made the All-NBA third team. After leaving Chicago, he never achieved any of those accolades.

Leonard checked all three boxes this season – Finals MVP, All-NBA, All-Star. He looks poised to take over as the NBA’s best player for the next few several years.

It’d be unprecedented for someone like him to bolt.

The most productive player to leave a championship team immediately after winning a title? It might be Tyson Chandler, who posted 9.4 win shares for the 2011 Mavericks then got signed-and-traded to the Knicks.

Even while missing 22 games amid load management and minor injury, Leonard posted 9.5 win shares last season.

Here’s how Leonard compares to the players with the most win shares in a title-winning season who began play elsewhere the following year:

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Of course, Leonard isn’t bound by history. He’ll make his own decision. If he wants to leave the Raptors for the Clippers, Knicks or anyone else, he can.

But players just usually stick with a champion. LeBron James said he might have re-signed with the Heat if they won the 2014 title. Kyrie Irving was unhappy after the Cavaliers’ 2016 championship but didn’t request a trade until they lost in the 2017 NBA Finals. Shaq and Kobe coexisted peacefully enough until the Lakers stopped winning titles.

It’s just hard to leave a team that has proven its ability to win a championship, and Leonard would have that in Toronto.