The Extra Pass: Analyzing the Kings-Rockets Trade

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The Extra Pass is a column that’s designed to give you a better look at a theme, team, player or scheme. Today, we examine the trade between the Kings and the Rockets.

How often does a team save money and improve on the court in a trade?

That’s essentially what the Sacramento Kings did when they acquired Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich, Toney Douglas and cash from the Houston Rockets for Thomas Robinson, Francisco Garcia, Tyler Honeycutt and a second round pick on the eve of the trade deadline.

And if the world were to end sometime in June, this would be a good trade — maybe even a great trade — for Sacramento. The Kings shed about 3.7 million of salary this year (that’s prorated, mind you), pick up a million in cash, and get the best player in the deal right now in Patterson, a 23-year-old power forward who can fly up the court and stretch the floor.

Of course, the world isn’t ending in June — unless your last name is Maloof or Petrie. If all goes according to plan, longtime GM Geoff Petrie will be on a beach somewhere with his cellphone off, while the owners, Joe and Gavin Maloof, will finally (thankfully) be removed of basketball decision making power — something that would have happened long ago in a more just world. These are the final days for their basketball lives, and Rockets GM Daryl Morey just happened to stroll by their garage sale at sunset.

Of course, Morey is really good at this sort of thing, and so he walked right past all the junk Sacramento wanted to get rid of and instead went inside and found the newest, shiniest thing he could. And that shiny thing was this year’s 5th pick in the NBA Draft, Thomas Robinson.

The reason this trade stunned people around the league so much was because it was assumed the Kings bumbling management group wouldn’t have the cohesiveness or the power to muck things up, but somehow (unfortunately, we don’t get to hear about the side deals) they were able to convince the Seattle group that this was something that would be beneficial for everyone.

For the Maloofs, this move is nothing more than a self-serving cash grab that shouldn’t surprise anyone who has watched the relocation drama unfold. Even beginning to dissect the “basketball reasons” for Sacramento making this deal is a useless exercise — there is only one real motivation here.

Houston’s motivations aren’t entirely different. As Zach Lowe of Grantland notes, the Rockets will save 1.6 million in 2013-14, which could make all the difference in being able to offer a max contract. Of course it goes beyond that for Houston — Robinson is by far the best asset in the trade, even if you don’t think he’s capable of playing up to his draft slot. I’d be hesitant to label Robinson a bust despite his shaky play so far this year, as Sacramento isn’t exactly a breeding ground for young promising talent. There’s no “royal jelly” going on there, as David Thorpe would like to say.

Robinson could of course use more time (he’s played 809 career minutes), but even with below average early season numbers like 42 percent shooting and a PER of 10.8, Robinson already does one thing great, and that’s hitting the offensive glass. Robinson averages 4.1 offensive rebounds per36 minutes –a number that would lead you to believe he can be a valuable role player as an energy guy off the bench, if nothing else.

That’s where the deal makes sense for Houston. They had three years and 3,500 minutes to evaluate Patterson, and though I’m sure they appreciated the solid production he provided (15.6 PER, 16 points per36), they likely weren’t sold enough to pay him a real contract once his rookie deal expired next season. But in Robinson, Houston gets to reset the clock and enjoy three and a half seasons of production on a rookie deal, or alternatively, they’ll have a more valuable asset to flip at some point due to Robinson’s potential — something Sacramento’s management has no time or use for.

Although trading Patterson and moving Marcus Morris to Phoenix for a second round draft pick makes the Rockets a little less stretchy, it does make them more flexible with playing time. Fellow rookies Terrence Jones, Royce White and Donatas Motiejunas will eventually need playing time, and moving Aldrich clears up some PT for promising young big man Greg Smith. In Garcia, the Rockets also get some wing depth and a veteran 3 and D guy in the mold of Carlos Delfino without having to commit any future salary. Losing a player and clearing a roster spot is actually a great thing for Houston.

While the move might not be popular with the team right now or Kevin McHale, who I’m sure enjoyed having “veterans” like Patterson and Douglas to call on, it’s a great asset acquisition at a steep discount. Would the Kings have ever traded the 5th pick  for a package of Patterson, Aldrich and Douglas before the draft? Of course not. They would have laughed at that offer.

But now? Selling Robinson’s potential, something that’s not tangible to Sacramento’s management but is to Houston, sadly makes dollars and sense.

Luka Doncic, Donte DiVincenzo, Jerome Robinson among NBA draft invitees

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Of course DeAndre Ayton will attend Thursday’s NBA draft. The Suns will likely draft him No. 1 overall.

But what about more marginal first-round prospects?

The NBA’s draft invite list is an important tool in judging their stock. The league wants to avoid players sitting in agony until their names are called. So, the NBA works to invite only the prospects most likely to get picked high in the draft.

The full list of invited players (which the league notes is subject to change):

Luka Doncic will go high in the draft, and though how high is still uncertain, his inclusion on this list says nothing about his stock. It just speaks to whether we’ll see him Thursday night. His attendance will depend at least on when Real Madrid’s season ends, though the NBA is apparently confident enough to list him.

Jerome Robinson has climbed draft boards since the season ended. He must be impressing in workouts and interviews.

Donte DiVincenzo is a bit of a surprise selection, as he’s not widely viewed as a first-round lock. Perhaps, the league is looking to capitalize on his popularity stemming from a breakout NCAA tournament championship game.

This will only reinforce the idea Chandler Hutchinson received a promise. Otherwise, he’s a surprise invitee.

Among the top players not attending: Kevin Huerter (Maryland), Jacob Evans (Cincinnati), Troy Brown (Oregon) and Josh Okogie (Georgia Tech). Though they could go higher than players listed here, that says something about Huerter’s Evans’, Browns’ and Okogie’s stock, too.

Report: Rudy Gay opting out of Spurs contract

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Kawhi Leonard reportedly wants to leave the Spurs, but he’s at their whims.

This doesn’t mean Rudy Gay will depart San Antonio, but he’s taking control of his future.

Chris Haynes of ESPN:

Gay’s option-year salary was $8,826,300.

I doubt Gay, who turns 32 this summer, will draw such a high starting salary on his next contract – though I certainly wouldn’t rule it out. He could likely get a multi-year deal with a higher total value.

Or he could chase a ring elsewhere.

Remember, Gay gave up money to leave the Kings last summer. No matter how much the Leonard situation should make us rethink the Spurs’ culture, San Antonio probably isn’t “basketball hell.” Still, the Spurs clearly don’t look as appealing as they once did, and Gay has shown how much he values team quality.

Gay is coming off a nice season, and San Antonio might try to re-sign him. Danny Green has a $10 million player option for next season, which will swing whether the Spurs have the flexibility for a bigger move this summer.

Report: LeBron James’ camp likes Collin Sexton

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In 2014, LeBron James tweeted his fondness for Connecticut point guard Shabazz Napier. The Heat traded up to get Napier in the draft, but LeBron left for the Cavaliers that summer, anyway.

Could history repeat itself, this time in Cleveland?

LeBron has already talked up Oklahoma point guard Trae Young, but maybe LeBron and his camp want the Cavs to take a different point guard – Alabama’s Collin Sexton – with the No. 8 pick.

Joe Vardon of Cleveland.com, via Jordan Zirm of ESPN Cleveland:

The Cavaliers should take the best prospect available. Worrying about what LeBron might want makes a mistake only more likely.

LeBron might stay in Cleveland, but as 2014 showed, it won’t be because of a draft pick. If he stays, it very well could be by opting into the final year of his contract. His player-option salary ($35,607,968) is slightly higher than his projected max salary as a free agent (about $35.35 million). If LeBron opts in, the best chance of keeping him long-term is building a better team around him.

That means taking the best prospect at No. 8 or trading the pick for someone who can help LeBron win now. If the top prospect is Sexton, that’s fine. But the Cavs are fare more likely to appease LeBron by getting the pick right in the long run rather than choosing the prospect he wants now.

2018 NBA Draft Prospect Profiles: Is Trae Young a super star in the making?

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Trae Young is a perfect example of why, as an elite freshman entering the college ranks, it is so important to pick a school that is the right fit for you.

Young was a borderline five-star prospect entering the college ranks, the kind of point guard that was recruited by everyone from Kansas to Kentucky, but instead of picking one of the bluebloods, Young opted to stay home. He enrolled at Oklahoma, where his supporting case was questionable and he had the opportunity to have the entire offense run through him every single night.

And the results, at first, were sensational.

Young put up massive numbers, at one point averaging 30 points and 10 assists while leading Oklahoma into the top ten of the national rankings, getting himself compared to Steph Curry, talked about by LeBron and the focus of every college basketball broadcast for the first three months of the season.

Then, once Big 12 play started, opponents began to crack the code. Young didn’t have a ton of help on that roster, which, when combined with some of the issues that he has with shot selection and decision-making, turned him from a player with unimaginable efficiency on a never-before-seen level of usage into just another high-volume, low-efficiency gunner. Oklahoma’s season went in the toilet, the Sooners finished 18-14 on the year, losing 12 of their last 16 games and falling out of the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments in the first round.

That has turned Young into one of the more polarizing prospects in recent memory.

He became the first player in Division I history to lead the nation in scoring and assists, but he did it as a player that doesn’t like to play defense on a team that couldn’t figure out how to win late in the year.

Is he the second-coming of Steph Curry?

Or is he Jimmer Fredette?

And what GM is going to have the stones to find out?

HEIGHT: 6-foot-1.75
WEIGHT: 178 lbs
WINGSPAN: 6-foot-3
2017-18 STATS: 27.4 PPG, 8.7 APG, 3.6 RPG, 42.2/36.0/86.1, 5.2 TPG
DRAFT RANGE: 5-10

STRENGTHS

I would make the argument that Trae Young is the single-most skilled player in this year’s NBA draft. He might very well be the best shooter available, and I think that it is inarguable he is the best passer in this draft class. The biggest reason his counting stats are so high is because of the absurd level of volume and freedom that Lon Kruger afforded him, but there’s also a reason he was given that freedom.

Let’s start with his shooting. Young’s range extends will beyond the NBA’s three-point line, but what makes him so dangerous isn’t his ability as a catch-and-shoot threat, it’s how well he is able to get to his shot off of the dribble. Young’s handle is elite, as is his footwork. He’s always on balance and he has a lightening quick release, one that he doesn’t need much space to get off. He also has a variety of different step-backs and pull-backs to create space, and he’s a very good shooter off of hang-dribbles (if there’s a switch) or if a defender goes under a ball-screen.

Young is not the quickest or most explosive guard you’ll find, but he understands how to use his change of pace and some deceptive ball-handling to get a defense off balance and create room for himself to get into the paint. He has an array of shots that he can make in the paint, although he does need to continue to get more consistent with his floaters and mid-range shots.

Part of the reason that Kyrie Irving and Steph are able to thrive as two of the best scorers in the NBA is because they are elite finishers at and around the rim despite the fact that they are smaller and less athletic than the players that will be guarding them. Young will need to get to that level, and it’s certainly doable.

The other side of Young’s game is his ability to pass the ball. His vision is sensational, both in transition and in the halfcourt, and it will only get more effective in the NBA, where the players he is passing to are better and the wider deeper three-point are creates more space. The thing that really stood out to me in watching Young was his ability to read a defense in ball-screen actions. His basketball IQ and his understanding of where the defense is moving and who is going to be open is already at an elite level.

WEAKNESSES

The biggest concern with Young as a prospect is on the defensive side of the ball. Physically, he was not quite ready to defend at the collegiate level last season, let alone at the NBA level. He’s actually a little taller than you may realize — he’s just a shade under 6-foot-2 — but he weighs just 178 pounds with a willowy frame and a wingspan that is just 6-foot-3. He’s not all that strong, he’s not all that physical and he’s not all that tough, and that’s before you question if he has the quickness to guard elite NBA point guards.

And then there is the issue of whether or not he actually wants to play defense. He was a mess guarding ball-screens as a freshman, often showing little-to-no effort to fight through and getting lost when he did. He got beaten off the dribble without providing much in the way of resistance far too many times. He almost looked disinterested on that end of the floor. Context might be important here, however. With the load that Young was carrying on the offensive end, it’s certainly reasonable that he was either A) saving his legs to be able to carrying the Sooners offensively or B) didn’t actually have enough energy to defend.

That doesn’t diminish the concerns with his physical tools, but defending is about want-to, and it will be on the teams that are drafting to figure out whether or not he actually wants to defend. As flawed as Steph is defensively, he tries hard enough that he’s not that much of a liability.

The other issue is how careless and inefficient Young was late in the year. Not only did he lead the nation in scoring and assists, but he led in turnovers as well. He also has a bad habit of taking terrible shots early in the shot clock, settling for 25-footers with a defender in his face, but again, context is important to the discussion here.

The degree of difficulty on the plays that Young tried to make this season was often insanely high, but the truth is that Oklahoma really didn’t have any other options to create offense. Young had to carry the load for this group to be a tournament team, and it worked well enough for long enough that the Sooners were still a tournament team despite a disastrous finish to the season.

Again, NBA GMs are going to have to figure out the answer to this question: Was Young inefficient late in the year because that’s who he is as a player, or was he driving into three defenders or forcing 26-foot shots or trying to make tough passes because that’s what his team needed him to do?

NBA COMPARISON

The obvious comparison that gets made by everyone is Stephen Curry, and in a best-case scenario, I don’t think that’s terrible. That said, I think that, given Young’s ability to pass the ball, Steve Nash makes a little more sense — and that is who Young has idolized — but either way, you know about what his ceiling. I’m not sure he has two-time MVP upside, and comparing him to two players of that caliber is probably unfair, but he has the potential to be very, very good in a league built around ball-screens, the three-ball and pace-and-space.

That said, the floor for Young is very low. If he can’t figure out how to defend and he never ends up being good enough to have an offense built around him, I think there’s a real chance that his second contract is with a team outside of the NBA.

OUTLOOK

As the NBA moves more and more towards small-ball, the skill-set that Young has is going to continue to get more valuable. Elite shooting is something that every team in the league needs, and Young has that ability to shoot. He’s excellent in ball-screens as well, and his ability as a passer when the kind of spacing he’ll see on an NBA court is something that absolutely should translate.

We’ve been over the issues that he has with inefficiency, decision-making and defending. All of those are concerns, but I do think that the situation that Young was in at Oklahoma exacerbated them to a degree.

In my mind, Young’s career is going to be determined by whether or not he ends up being good enough that to have an offense built around him. The way he wants to play is as a James Harden or a Russell Westbrook. Even Steve Nash had the ball in his hands the majority of the time. Being a ball-dominant lead guard that gets run through 20-30 ball-screens a night is not something everyone can do.

And if Young can’t do that, I have a tough time envisioning what his role will be in the NBA.