The Extra Pass: What can we expect of Derrick Rose in his return?

4 Comments

The Extra Pass is a column that’s designed to give you a better look at a theme, team, player or scheme. Today, we look at what to expect from Derrick Rose when he returns.

This was supposed to be a lost season for the Chicago Bulls. Even the most ardent believers in Tom Thibodeau’s defensive system didn’t see this coming. The Bulls didn’t have depth, they didn’t have room for improvement, and most importantly, they didn’t have Derrick Rose.

But what do the Bulls have now? A 29-19 record, the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference, and a legitimate chance to catch the East’s leaders as the All-Star break approaches.

It was once easy to assume that Rose would return from his torn ACL to a floundering team just trying to stay alive. Instead, he’s coming back to a flourishing one.

That success has altered the expectations for Rose in his return. He is no longer required to be a savior, but rather a solid contributor. On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Bulls actually have a decent shot at winning a title. That would sound preposterous a few months ago — and to some it still might — but according to Memphis Grizzlies front office employee and former ESPN writer John Hollinger’s playoff odds, the Bulls currently have a 16.5 percent chance at making the finals.

That may surprise some, but Chicago’s 4th ranked defense is suffocating. They have two scary wing defenders in Luol Deng and Jimmy Butler to throw at Miami, they have the passing big men to dice up a slow defense like New York, and you have to imagine they’d welcome a grind out battle on their terms against an Indiana or Brooklyn. Point being, we know this is a very capable team. They’ve proven that early on.

That said, what we don’t know about the Bulls looms large in the big picture. What can we expect of Derrick Rose when he makes his return?

The good and the bad

The hopeful few will quickly cite the name of Adrian Peterson, the Minnesota Vikings running back who won the league’s MVP award and put together his best season after an ACL injury. The line of thought isn’t hard to follow — Peterson is an athletic wonder that shines over his peers, and Rose is cut from the same cloth. Special athletes are more equipped to deal with this sort of thing, you would think.

Ignoring the apples and oranges that is football and basketball for a second, it’s important to remember that we can compare players physically, but we can’t do the same mentally. Although I wish I weren’t speaking from experience, the mental hurdles after an ACL injury are the most difficult to overcome. Trusting your knee not to give out when you euro step, not hesitating to take off in traffic for a floater — these are things that take different amounts of time for everyone. What Peterson did was as much a triumph over mind as it was body. That’s not to say Rose can’t do the same, but success following an ACL injury goes deeper than what you can do physically.

That said, we should deal in what we know and what we’ve seen in the past from NBA players coming back from ACL injuries. Last season, Kevin Pelton broke it down at Basketball Prospectus:

“Going back to the 1999-00 campaign and not including this year’s (2012) results, I found 40 ACL tears suffered by NBA players in games, practices, or even during summer workouts while under contract.

Of those 40, 22 involved players had usable pre- and post-injury numbers to compare. That’s a relatively small sample size, but such is the nature of rare injuries. On average, these players saw their per-minute winning percentage drop from .452 to .405, a 10.4 percent decline in their effectiveness. 15 of the 22 got worse.

A comparison of some of their key statistics before and after the injury:

Period     MPG    Usg    TS%   Reb%   Ast%   Stl%   Blk%   FTA%   Win%
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Before    24.0   .206   .528   .113   .026   .013   .013   .119   .452
After     21.7   .194   .502   .114   .024   .013   .012   .114   .405

Pelton goes on to explain that the biggest differences in players that come back from ACL injuries are found in usage rates and shooting percentages. This is particularly noteworthy for Rose, a player who contributes primarily with his ability to score.

More recent examples of guards with ACL tears foretell a difficult path ahead for Rose. Although Iman Shumpert and Ricky Rubio have very different games than Rose, they have suffered massive drops in shooting percentages this season. In eight games so far, Shumpert’s True Shooting Percentage is down from 48.4 percent last year to 43.3 percent. In 19 games, Rubio’s percentage is down from 47.6 percent last year to 42.7 this year. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Eric Maynor is down from 46.6 percent to 40.3 percent as well.

Corey Brewer is probably the last perimeter player to come back strong from an ACL tear. Brewer averaged his highest points per game total of his career after his injury, and he saw a bump in his percentages as well.

But again, Rose is not Rubio, Shumpert, Maynor or Brewer. He’s a much more explosive scorer that uses almost a third of Chicago’s total possessions. He’s a star. History indicates he might not be that right away coming off his injury, but the Bulls might not need him to be, either.

NBA makes it official, moves up free agency six hours to 6 p.m. June 30 (Eastern)

Getty Images
Leave a comment

I’d like to think this means we’ll all be able to go to bed at a reasonable hour on June 30. I also know better.

There is a frenzy of activity right as free agency opens (Tampering? There is no tampering in the NBA…), which traditionally has been as the clock turns to July 1 in New York, right at midnight. Things got so active that a lot of agents and players made sure they were in Los Angeles, even if they didn’t live there in the offseason, just so things started at the more reasonable hour of 9 p.m.

Now the NBA has made the rumors official: Free agency will begin at 6 p.m. Eastern on June 30. Six hours earlier than before.

This was done as an agreement between the NBA and the National Basketball Players Association.

This is going to be a wild July with a lot of big-name free agents — Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler — and maybe a third of the players in the league on the market, plus there are a lot more teams with cap space to spend this season. It’s going to be a frenzy.

Now we know what time the wild times start.

Why does Kevin Durant respond on social media? “I’m qualified to talk about basketball”

Getty Images
3 Comments

Every NBA player gets ripped on social media, even the guys who are not on social media. Most of the time players just ignore it, the way they ignore fans yelling stuff courtside or distant family asking them for money.

Kevin Durant, however, gets into it sometimes, even with national media members (and even had a burner account). Which always becomes a thing.

Why? Why not just ignore it? From Durant himself at practice Friday, via NBC Sports Bay Area.

“Because I have social media,” Durant said Friday… “I mean, I’m a human being with a social media account. I could see if I ventured off into like politics, culinary arts or music and gave my input, but I’m sticking to something that I know. You know what I’m saying? This is all I know. I’m actually talking about stuff that I know. I’m qualified to talk about basketball.

“So when I respond to something, especially if it’s about me personally, of course I’m going to tell you if you wrong about it. When I’m on the training table getting treatment on my calf and I see a tweet that come by and I disagree — I don’t talk to people because I’m worried about what they say, it’s just that I’m interested. So if you talking about in-game or the NBA Finals, they’re the same to me, you know what I’m saying?”

Durant seems to have more time on hands to get into these spats while he is out injured. Which likely will last into the start of the NBA Finals.

Does this mean the Drake/Durant beef is inevitable?

LeBron likes Instagram of Kyrie Irving in Lakers jersey, Internet goes berserk

Getty Images
3 Comments

The Lakers landing Kyrie Irving in free agency this summer might be their best realistic option. It’s far, far from a lock — the Knicks, and yes Celtics, will make their pitch, too — but reuniting the pair that won a title in Cleveland is on the Lakers’ radar. (Insert your own, “you know who should coach this team” Tyronn Lue joke here.)

Fueling the speculation, LeBron James and Irving were seen hanging out together at a club in Los Angeles recently. Then Friday, this happened: Cuffthelegend posted this on Instagram and LeBron liked it.

View this post on Instagram

I like how this feels

A post shared by Savage Season 365 (@cuffsthelegend) on

(For the record, Cuffthelegend gets some stuff right, he’s not a guy who posts stuff out of nowhere.)

Of course, NBA Twitter and the web responded to this in its usual measured, thoughtful way. Some Lakers fans think the deal is done, others mock the idea altogether.

Two thoughts on Irving and the Lakers:

• Multiple reports say Irving is open to it. Irving also has a strong relationship with Kevin Durant, and Boston still plans to trade for Anthony Davis and then try to re-sign Irving (even if Boston fans are done with Kyrie). The only person who knows which way Irving is leaning right now is Irving, and there’s a good chance he changes his mind in the next five weeks anyway.

• If the Lakers are going to land a star free agent this summer, it will be because LeBron was an active recruiter. These elite players have options, and the Laker front office is not inspiring confidence of late, it will be on LeBron to win guys over.

 

Jeremy Lin: Milwaukee security guard asked for my pass to Raptors team bus

Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images
5 Comments

Jeremy Lin has discussed people not believing he plays in the NBA.

It apparently still happens.

Lin, whose Raptors are playing the Bucks in the Eastern Conference finals, via Bill Michaels Sports Talk Network:

After Game 2 in Milwaukee, I was trying to get to the team bus and one of the dudes in the Milwaukee arena just screams at me. He’s like, “Where do you think you’re going?!” And I’m like, “Uh, I’m trying to get to the team bus.” He’s like, “What?! Where’s your pass?” I was like, “I don’t have a pass. I don’t know what you’re talking about. I don’t have a pass.”

This happens in a lot of arenas, so I just kind of go with the flow.

It’s a fine line. Lin shouldn’t be profiled as a non-athlete because he’s Asian-American. Arena staffers should keep everyone safe by stopping unauthorized people.