When they met a couple of weeks ago the Knicks blew the Lakers out of Madison Square Garden. If the Knicks move the ball like that again, and if the Lakers defensive rotations are just as bad, the outcome will be the same. We’ll see how much Steve Nash and Pau Gasol can change that first outcome.
Kay Adams and I talk a little about this one and who has been more key for the Knicks, Raymond Felton or Jason Kidd.
Magic Johnson got the Lakers fined for tampering while still holding a ceremonial title. Once he actually took over the front office, he really got to work tampering. He got warned for blinking at Paul George on national television. Then – due to general manager Rob Pelinka’s communication with George’s agent and Johnson’s previous warning – the Lakers received one of the largest fines in NBA history. Johnson himself got the Lakers fined for praising Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo. The league investigated and cleared assistant coach Brian Shaw for tampering with George.
NBA commissioner Adam Silver has said the Lakers’ previous transgressions have put them under tighter scrutiny.
The Lakers just want this to end.
Lakers co-owner and governor Jeanie Buss called the meeting, which was led by president of basketball operations Magic Johnson.
Sources said Johnson and Lakers general manager Rob Pelinka spoke to a large group of team employees, warning them about tampering.
Other employees received written notices on the matter that referenced possible termination as punishment for anyone who does not adhere to NBA rules.
Tampering often takes much more benign forms than a president or general manager recruiting a star player before free agency. It could be an offhand comment by a coach, an overzealous ticket pitch or a speculative article on the team website.
If Johnson’s and Pelinka’s tampering increases the Lakers’ odds of landing a star, that’s just the cost of doing business. If a lower-level staffer tampers, that’s an avoidable mistake.
Really, it’s comical this meeting is even newsworthy, and that’s a product of the Lakers’ previous violations.
But, as they pursue stars, they don’t want to chance the league imposing any additional restrictions.
So, the Lakers, in some ways are right back where they started.
How this works:
Draft for need or take the best player available?
It’s the question as old as drafts themselves. Personally, I favor the middle-of-the-road approach – the tier system. I judge prospects on three attributes:
- Current ability
- Potential
- Likelihood of meeting that potential
Obviously, assessing those attributes is not easy. It’s really hard.
That’s why I don’t like taking the best prospect – based on all three criteria – available. It’s just too difficult to split hairs between players with so many variables.
But overly considering fit is problematic for the same reason. Rosters churn, and it’s foolish to pass on a clearly better prospect – in the cases that becomes clear – just because he doesn’t fit the current version of the team.
So how does the tier system work?
Divide players into tiers based on their value regardless of fit. Don’t worry about differentiating prospects with nearly identical values. Find natural cutoffs.
Then, within each tier, rank the players based on fit for the specific drafting team.
Theoretically, a draft could have anywhere between 1 and 60 tiers. A 1-tier draft would mean every prospect – from the top pick to Mr. Irrelevant – holds the same value. A 60-tier draft would mean every prospect is clearly distinguishable based on value. Obviously, neither is likely.
The size of tiers should be organic, and therefore, the number of tiers is also organic. Naturally, tiers tend to be smaller near the top of the draft, where lines between players are sharper.
Here are the 16 tiers necessary to get through the first round. Within each tier, I rank players as if the drafting teams had empty rosters. Obviously, actual NBA teams would need to consider other information when assessing fit of players within a tier.
Tier 1
1. DeAndre Ayton, C, Arizona
His physical profile – 7-foot with a 7-foot-5 wingspan, muscular, smoothly fast, high jumper – is nearly mythological. He has nice touch on his shot near the basket, in mid-range (though he shoots from there too often) and maybe eventually beyond the NBA 3-point arc. The big red flags come on defense, where Ayton far too often looks lost. At least he has the tools to excel on that end if he figures it out, though I have major questions whether he will.
2. Luka Doncic, PG, Real Madrid
Just 19, Doncic is already starring in the highest levels of European basketball. Nobody has ever done that before. He flat out knows how to play. His ball-handling and passing are expert level, and he’s a good shooter, particularly off the dribble. At 6-foot-8, he’s fairly position-less on the perimeter, but I’d want the ball in his hands enough to consider him a point guard. His underwhelming athleticism is concerning. Athletic wings – far more common in the NBA than Europe – could give him trouble, especially in his ability to create separation. His defensive upside is also limited. But Doncic plays a strong all-around game, including as a rebounder, which speaks to his functional athleticism.
Tier 2
3. Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma
Young’s combination of scoring and shooting gives him elite potential – if he’s not too small. He can make all the standard passing reads required of a starting NBA point guard, which is no small achievement for a 19-year-old. He’s also at least a good 3-point shooter with ability to hit pull-ups and spot-ups. But he’s small, 6-foot-2 with a 6-foot-3 wingspan. Can he defend anyone? Can he finish inside? Can he make cross-court passes through defenses? Young’s diminutive frame threatens to undermine him, but he is a skilled, high-upside prospect.
4. Jaren Jackson Jr., C, Michigan State
Jackson has shown all the main skills for a modern center. He shoots 3-pointers, protects the rim as a help defender and switches onto forwards and guards. But he too often played timid, exemplified by frequently fouling rather than battling physically. Is that because he’s soft or because he was just 18 playing for a hard-driving coach who never seemed to figure out quite how to use him? Jackson’s offensive upside is limited by his lacking court vision and explosiveness. But teams shouldn’t fear drafting a player high just because he doesn’t project well as a scorer. That’s only one skill of many. Jackson would fit well with nearly any set of teammates on both ends of the court.
Tier 3
5. Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas
Ayton might be the only prospect who matches Bamba’s ceiling. Bamba is huge – 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-10 wingspan. Reasonably mobile and a high leaper, he covers a lot of ground. And he often must defensively, because he’s not always in ideal position due to recognition and/or effort issues. Yet, he’s already still quite effective. Does that indicate his potential to get even better? Or does it show his intelligence doesn’t cleanly translate to visual/spatial awareness? I believe in his ability to become an elite rim protector much more than I do his switchability on the perimeter. With the athleticism necessary to do it in the modern game, Bamba fills the role of a fairly traditional center – blocking shots, rebounding, finishing inside. He’s developing his 3-pointer, though that remains largely hypothetical as an asset.
6. Mikal Bridges, SF, Villanova
Bridges projects extremely well as a 3-and-D role player. It can be tempting to reach for someone with higher upside, but there are plenty of players with high-usage starring styles. Good teams need players like Bridges, who has a good feel for how to help as a complementary player. He’s a good 3-point shooter, and he can penetrate against closeouts and in the pick-and-roll, finish well at the rim or dishing as he drives. He’s also an active cutter and capable post-up player against smaller players. At 6-foot-7 with a 7-foot-2 wingspan, Bridges has the length – though not necessarily strength – to defend several positions. He possesses plenty of functional athleticism defensively thanks to his high basketball intelligence. He just lacks the aggressiveness and off-the-dribble shooting ability to take over games.
Tier 4
7. Michael Porter, SF/PF, Missouri
Porter’s back injury scares me so, so, so much. He’d rank much higher with more dependable health. Porter is a good shooter from deep and mid-range. With a smooth stride, ball-handling ability in the open court, ability to shoot on the move and a 6-foot-10 frame, he can get his shot off at will. Relatedly, he too often settles for bad shots once he gets the ball. On the flip side, he works hard off the ball to get in good scoring position. His defensive indifference puts his length to waste. Likewise, he doesn’t make enough effort offensively to do more than just get his points.
8. Miles Bridges, PF/SF, Michigan State
Bridges should be more effective as a small-ball power forward in the NBA. Though his length – 6-foot-7 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan – isn’t ideal, he has the strength and competitiveness to hold up inside. He could guard bigger, more athletic small forwards, too. At power forward, his speed and shooting become weapons. Bridges already does a fine job creating shots for himself, and he’d fare even better if his ball-handling improves.
Tier 5
9. Marvin Bagley, PF/C, Duke
Bagley is an elite above-the-rim finisher, and he does plenty to generate those efficient shots. He’s extremely quick for 6-foot-11, and he runs the floor hard, often beating his man to the rim. He’s also an excellent rebounder, taking advantage of his quick multi-jump ability. Until he becomes a better screener, he’ll be limited in base halfcourt offenses. More troublingly, he provides so little as a rim protector due to poor defensive awareness, a relatively short 7-foot-1 wingspan and middling core strength. He might have to play power forward defensively, but I don’t trust his outside shot enough for him to be anything but a center offensively, which creates complications.
Tier 6
10. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Kentucky
A 6-foot-6 point guard with a 7-foot wingspan, Gilgeous-Alexander always looks in control by the way he smoothly changes speed and direction. He uses his length to finish, with both hands, from many angles and evade defenders. But when he can’t get going downhill against defenses going under on pick-and-rolls, his pull-up jumper becomes a liability. He’s developing as a distributor, and playing in an offense with more spacing than Kentucky’s last year should help. His defense is already solid and could get even better if he gets significantly stronger/more physical – natural for a 19-year-old but questionable for someone with his narrow frame.
11. Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama
Sexton relentlessly and ferociously attacks the rim with the ball in his hands – sometimes when lesser players couldn’t, sometimes when he shouldn’t. He must play a little more under control in the NBA, which should be easier with more spacing. Along with that, he must develop as a passer. But those are steps many point guards must make at his age, and few match his athleticism. Sexton – 6-foot-2 with a 6-foot-7 wingspan – has the length to defend well, but he’s probably a little overrated on that end. Perhaps, with a more reasonable offensive load, his overall defensive output will catch up to the flashes he showed.
Tier 7
12. Kevin Huerter, SG, Maryland
The 6-foot-7 Huerter is an excellent 3-point shooter. He can also score inside the arc with plenty of lift and, importantly, keeps his head up looking for passes as he drives. He takes too many risks on those passes, though. He’s neither fast nor strong enough to project as a good defender, though effort helps.
13. Lonnie Walker, SG, Miami
Walker – 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan and explosive athleticism – looks the part of an NBA player. He just didn’t put those physical traits to good use at Miami. He settled for too many bad shots, showed little court vision as a passer and locked in too rarely defensively. Still, it’s hard to turn down someone with so much potential at a scarce position. Maybe he’ll eventually translate his impressive tools into better production.
Tier 8
14. De'Anthony Melton, PG/SG, USC
Melton plays hard and smart, a combination that goes a long way. At 6-foot-3 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan and an aggressive physicality, he defends well on and off the ball. He rebounds at an elite rate for his position, and his court vision as a passer is tremendous. He doesn’t shoot well. He doesn’t have many moves with the ball. He doesn’t finish well in traffic. So, he won’t be an easy fit. But smart teams will figure out how to utilize him, and he’ll contribute to winning.
Tier 9
15. Wendell Carter, C, Duke
Carter can do a lot of things offensively, and because one of them is pass, it’s fine to give him the ball a lot. He’s not great at anything, but that’s OK. His ability to play inside and out will serve him well as he faces different defenders in a switch-heavy NBA. Carter has a long way to go defending in space, which is a major red flag. That deficiency can simply make bigs unplayable in the modern game.
Tier 10
16. Robert Williams, C, Texas A&M
Modern NBA offenses, with all the spacing they create, set the stage for bigs like Williams – 6-foot-9 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan and impressive leaping ability – to roll to the rim and finish lobs against minimal defensive pressure. On the other end, he’s an impressive shot blocker. His motor, while improved, remains questionable. That particularly shows in his rebounding. Perhaps, he’ll look more motivated while playing his optimal position after getting jammed into big frontcourt at Texas A&M.
17. Donte DiVincenzo, SG, Villanova
DiVincenzo is a dangerous 3-point shooter with a high release point on and off the ball. He can wiggle his way to the rim and, with major hops, he finishes well. He’s a fine passer, though I consider him far more of a shooting guard than point guard. He just lacks the playmaking ability to run an offense, and he’s a little too slow to defend many point guards. His lackluster length – 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-6 wingspan – doesn’t help against shooting guards, either.
18. Kevin Knox, SF/PF, Kentucky
Still just 18, Knox is one of the youngest players in this draft. That’s important to remember, because he’s more of a project than many realize. He has a nice shooting stroke and the size (6-foot-9 with a 7-foot wingspan) to become a versatile defender. But he’s too limited as a ball-handler and distributor to trust with a major offensive role. And he’s not physical enough defensively or as a rebounder. Knox is a fine athlete, though hardly an eye-popping one, which raises questions about how high in the draft a team should bet on him.
Tier 11
19. Zhaire Smith, SF, Texas Tech
Smith played like a big man in college – defending, rebounding and using his elite hops to finish above the rim. He found many ways to help. At 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, that won’t fly in the NBA. He’ll have to develop more of a perimeter game. Smith’s star potential is limited. He performs poorly off the dribble – whether it’s driving to the rim, pulling up for a shot or drawing attention to kick to teammates. A player – especially someone guard-sized – can influence the game only so much if he’s not a threat with the ball in his hands. But Smith, who just turned 19, is young enough and has a strong enough work ethic to develop ball skills.
Tier 12
20. Dzanan Musa, SF, KK Cedevita
Musa is a gunner. The 6-foot-9 wing relentlessly hunts his own shots using advanced ball-handling in isolation and running the pick-and-roll. He can shoot from deep, in mid-range and on floaters. For someone with such a high usage, he’s quite efficient. But he’s probably not a good enough scorer to stick with this style in the NBA. How will he adjust? His all-around game is also lacking. At just 19, he already excels at the facet of play he has clearly committed to developing. Could he build a wider skill set if he so chooses? Would he expend energy on areas less flashy than scoring?
21. Troy Brown, SG, Oregon
Brown plays physically on both ends of the floor. He’s comfortable amid contact while driving to the basket, still finding the right blend of hunting his own shot and using his impressive court vision to find teammates. That playmaking is also helpful in creating transition opportunities, as Brown is comfortable grabbing rebounds and pushing the ball up court. He’s a good rebounder for his position. At 6-foot-7 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, he has the strength to defend multiple positions. Speed is an issue in some perimeter matchups. The big catch: Brown is a poor 3-point shooter, though he could develop there.
Tier 13
22. Jacob Evans, SG/SF, Cincinnati
Evans – 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan – does a great job anticipating and moving his feet to stay in front of his man defensively. But his so-so athleticism will limit him in some matchups. His basketball intelligence also extends to passing, but the usefulness of that skill is limited by lackluster ball-handling and burst. Though he won’t tilt defenses, he is a reliable spot-up 3-point shooter, giving him a true 3-and-D skill set.
23. Josh Okogie, SG, Georgia Tech
Quick and long (6-foot-5 with a 7-foot wingspan), Okogie covers a lot of ground defensively. He has the strength to defend three, maybe even four, positions. He was miscast as a go-to offensive player at Georgia Tech. Limit him mostly to spot-up 3-pointers, and he’ll look better, though not necessarily great. How well he hits those 3s from NBA distance will go a long way in determining his value.
Tier 14
24. Grayson Allen, SG, Duke
Allen is an elite shooter who plays passionately, for better or worse. Sometimes, that means winning hustle plays. Sometimes, that means tripping opponents. But get past the name, and don’t overlook his ability to play. Shooting is an ultra-important skill, and Allen has it. He fortifies it with enough athleticism to attack closeouts and improved point-guard skills. Defense, particularly lateral quickness, remains a big concern.
25. Shake Milton, SG/PG, Southern Methodist
Milton is a smooth shooter on 3-pointers and in the mid-range. His ball-handling and burst are too lacking for him to be a point guard full-time. He doesn’t get to the rim enough, and when he does, he finishes poorly. But playing on the ball in college should serve him well at the next level. He has developed nicely as a passer. Though he’s 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan, his slender frame will narrow the defensive matchups he can handle.
26. Jerome Robinson, PG/SG, Boston College
Robinson didn’t become good until his junior year. Don’t trust players who became good only as upperclassmen. Many of them just figure out how to produce at a lower level against younger competition. But some develop in ways to translate to the NBA, and Robinson looks good enough to fool me. He has a lightning-quick release on his jumper, which extended efficiently to 3-point range this season. He plays with patience, allowed by a tight handle. He might be more of a combo guard, but at least he’s 6-foot-5. Athleticism is a major concern, which could affect him as a finisher and defender.
27. Aaron Holiday, PG, UCLA
Holiday is tough to contain when he has the ball. Play too far off him, and he’ll splash 3-pointers. He’s unselfish, but a bit too sloppy as a distributor. He lacks the athleticism of his brothers, Jrue Holiday and Justin Holiday. That holds back Aaron as a finisher and defender and raises overall questions about his ability to translate to the next level.
Tier 15
28. Mitchell Robinson, C, Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky was an odd choice for a five-star recruit like Robinson, and he apparently agreed. He enrolled and left. Twice. College isn’t for everyone, but that odd saga raises red flags about Robinson’s life-management abilities. On the plus side: He’s 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and bouncy, and his hands are big and soft. He finishes well inside, hits the glass hard and blocks shots. He even flashes jump-shooting ability. But he’s unrefined and a major project in every way.
29. Elie Okobo, PG, Pau-Orthez
The 20-year-old looks ready to graduate from France’s top league. Is he ready for the NBA? Probably not. He’s a good shooter, but his release is low. His court vision has gotten pretty good, but he doesn’t always put enough on his passes when identifying skip and cross-court targets. There’s time for him to develop.
Tier 16
30. Jevon Carter, PG, West Virginia
Carter is a tenacious defender at the point of attack, and he has the strength and competitiveness to defend bigger players on switches. But at 6-foot-2 with a 6-foot-4 wingspan and subpar athleticism, it’s far from guaranteed his defensive attitude will actually yield positive results at the next level. He lacks the explosiveness and moves to really lead an offense, but at least he looks good as a spot-up 3-point shooter.
31. Anfernee Simons, SG, IMG Academy
Simons, who comes as close as possible nowadays to jumping to the NBA straight from high school, is a major project. A 6-foot-4 scoring guard, Simons has a tight handle and quick feet that he uses primarily to generate jumpers. He shoots with a quick release and has range beyond the NBA 3-point arc. He’s reliant on floaters inside, as he’s not nearly strong enough for the pros. He must also develop as a passer. Nobody drafting the 19-year-old should depend on him anytime soon.
32. Melvin Frazier, SF, Tulane
The 6-foot-6 Frazier brings a lot to defense – a 7-foot-2 wingspan, hyperactivity and supreme hops. He has made strides as a 3-point shooter, and his development there will be instrumental. He also works well as a cutter and can finish above the rim. Subpar ball-handling caps his ceiling and usefulness of this next skill, but he seems to possess good court vision.
You’ve watched hours of Luka Doncic YouTube videos. You keep reading. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is climbing draft boards. You’re convinced Zhaire Smith is a sleeper.
And you want to tell everyone about it.
One problem: You’re not quite sure how to say any of these 2018 NBA prospects’ names.
Thankfully, the NBA published a pronunciation guide:
Jaylen Adams: JAY-lin Adams
Deng Adel: Deng uh-DELL
Rawle Alkins: Raleigh ALL-kins
Kostas Antetokounmpo: COAST-us Ah-day-toe-KOON-boe
DeAndre Ayton: dee-AN-dray AY-tin
Marvin Bagley III: Marvin Bag-lee the third
Mohamed Bamba: Mo-HAH-med BAHM-bah
Jaylen Barford: JAY-lin BAR-ferd
Keita Bates-Diop: .KAY-tah Bates DEE-opp
Trevon Bluiett: TRAY-vahn BLEW-it
Isaac Bonga: EE-zack BON-guh
Mikal Bridges: Mick-L Bridges
Jalen Brunson: JAY-lin Brunson
Khadeen Carrington: kuh-DEEN KAIR-ing-tun
Jevon Carter: Je-VOHN Carter
Wendell Carter Jr.: Wen-DELL Carter Jr.
Bonzie Colson: BAHN-zee Cole-son
Angel Delgado: Angel del-GAH-doe
Hamidou Diallo: ha-MUH-dew dee-AH-low
Donte DiVincenzo: Donte dee-vin-CHEN-zo
Luka Doncic: LOO-kuh DON-chitch
Trevon Duval: Trey-VON du-VAL
Matt Farrell: Matt FA-rull
Wenyen Gabriel: WHEN-yin GAY-bree-ull
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Shay GILL juss Alexander
Devonte’ Graham: De-VON-te Graham
Donte Grantham: DON-tay GRAN-thum
Isaac Haas: Isaac HAHSS
Devon Hall: DEH-vin Hall
Kevin Hervey: Kevin Her-Vee
Tryggvi Hlinason: TRIG-vee hLEE-nuh-son
DJ Hogg: DJ HOAG
Kevin Huerter: Kevin Hurter
Chandler Hutchison: Chandler HUTCH-ih-sin
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Jair-in Jackson Jr.
Alize Johnson: AL-uh-zay Johnson
Arnoldas Kulboka: are-NALL-duss COOL-buh-kuh
Rodions Kurucs: ROE-dee-ons COO-roox
Jock Landale: Jock Lan-dale
Jo Lual-Acuil Jr.: Joe LOO-ahl ah-CHU-ill Jr.
Daryl Macon: DARE-ull MAY-cun
J.P. Macura: JP Muh-CYURE-uh
Kelan Martin: KEY-lun Martin
Yante Maten: Yahn-tay May-tin
MiKyle McIntosh: muh-KY-ull MAC-in-tosh
Jordan McLaughlin: Jordan Ma-GLOFF-lin
De'Anthony Melton: dee-AN-thony Melton
Chimezie Metu: chi-MEH-zee Meh-tu
Manan Musa: JOHN-on MOO-suh
Svi Mykhailiuk: Svee muh-KAI-luke
Malik Newman: muh-LEEK NEW-min
Elie Okobo: EL-ee oh-KO-bo
Josh Okogie: Josh oh-KO-ghee
Theo Pinson: THEE-o PIN-sin
Malik Pope: muh-LEEK Pope
Dusan Ristic: Doo-sahn Wrist-itch
Desi Rodriguez: DEH-zee Rodriguez
Issuf Sanon: ee-SOOF sah-NON
Landry Shamet: Landry SHAM-it
Anfernee Simons: AN-fur-knee SIGH-muns
Zhaire Smith: zhi-AIR Smith
Omari Spellman: o-MAR-ee Spellman
Jared Terrell: Jared turr-ELL
Khyri Thomas: KY-ree Thomas
Allonzo Trier: Alonzo Tree-ER
Moritz Wagner: Mo-RITZ VOG-ner
Yuta Watanabe: YOU-tuh wah-tuh-NAH-bay
Kenrich Williams: KEN-rich Williams
Trae Young: Trey Young
Every year we say it — there’s a lot of buzz about trades heading into the draft. Fans want to see it — teams moving up and down, players getting shipped out or brought in to facilitate those draft day moves.
The comes draft night and… meh. There are a few deals but not like was predicted.
But this year we really mean it — this year there is an incredible amount of buzz about trades.
Starting as high as with Atlanta at No. 3 and more likely Memphis at No. 4, there are going to be picks traded (we already saw one, with the Lakers taking on the 39th pick from the Sixers for a future second rounder). There also are going to be players moved — we already saw Dwight Howard get traded to Brooklyn in what was mostly a financial deal for both sides.
Why will there be trades this year, why is it not going to bomb out like all those other years?
Two reasons.
First, this year there is less of a consensus and a wider variance in how many top picks are ranked by teams. For example, Luka Doncic is a second and pushing for the top spot on some team’s big draft boards, others have him more like seventh. Michael Porter Jr. falls anywhere from No. 2 to “with that back there is no way we take him.” Trae Young could go third (unlikely but not impossible) or 13th. I could go on with Mohamed Bomba or Aaron Holiday or others, but you get the point.
What that means is if a team really likes Bamba or Doncic and he’s still on the board at No. 4, they will be willing to give up players/future picks to get him, and Memphis will be willing to slide back. (If one team is most likely to trade their pick, it’s the Grizzlies, according to sources around the league, but they want to dump the Chandler Parsons contract in the process.) Or take the case with the Hawks at three — they are rumored to really like Young, but they could slide back four or five (or more) slots and get him, plus get another asset from a team that wants to jump up to No. 3 to draft Bamba or Doncic or Jaren Jackson or whoever.
It continues like that all the way down through the lottery and into the first round. The Cavaliers are testing the waters to see what the No. 8 pick and Kevin Love could net them (someone who would help keep LeBron James in town?). The Clippers are thought of as likely to move one of their two picks at 12 and 13. There are a lot of teams who may see the guy they wanted off the board and decide they would slide down the draft, and other teams who see the guy they like still on the board and want to move up or into the first round. That’s what the player evaluation variance means. There’s going to be a lot more pick swaps than usual.
Second — and this is going to carry over into July and free agency — there are a lot of teams where management is looking at their roster, looking at the landscape of the NBA, and thinking “we are paying too much to just be average (or wherever they are at).” Those teams are going to look to move key players. For example, Washington had the fourth highest payroll in the NBA last season, barely got into the playoffs as the eighth seed and were bounced by a Celtics team about to get a lot better. They are rumored to be looking to make dramatic moves.
Toronto is looking to shake things up. Portland is reportedly testing the trade waters for C.J. McCollum. Charlotte is doing the same with Kemba Walker, who is a free agent in a couple of years (although the Howard trade could be about keeping Walker). Miami, Washington, and a host of other teams want to shake things up. There will be unexpected moves.
And that’s not included the more obvious ones: The Spurs being forced to move Kawhi Leonard (not on draft night, however, that will drag out), the Lakers trading most of their young players to get Leonard if they can, the Cavaliers moving Kevin Love (either with the No. 8 pick on Thursday or Love separately if LeBron leaves).
Bottom line: This year we mean it — there’s going to be a lot of trades on draft night. We’re serious. More than most years, there’s a lot of buzz about trades going on around league circles.
How it shakes out is going to be fascinating.
