On the amazing ripple effects of the 2004 Shaq Trade

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Remember the Summer of 2004? The Lakers, who came into the season with Gary Payton, Karl Malone, Kobe Bryant, and Shaq making up 80% of their starting 5, had just lost a “gentlemen’s sweep” to the Detroit Pistons. Kobe Bryant was a free agent. Shaq still had that pre-max monster of a deal, and he wasn’t getting any younger or getting along with Kobe any better.

The Lakers had to make a decision, especially when Kobe forced their hand by saying that he wouldn’t come back next season if Shaq was still on the team. (Revisionist history glosses over this fact, but Phil Jackson’s book The Last Season clearly states that Phil had that exact conversation with Kobe, and Kobe re-signed with the Lakers the day after Shaq was traded. The Lakers were going to have to make a tough decision on Shaq and his huge contract anyways, but come on.)

The Lakers ultimately decided to trade Shaq for Brian Grant, Caron Butler, and Lamar Odom. After that, the following things happened:

– Okay, Brian Grant never really became important.

– The Heat had the best record in the East, a relatively svelte Shaq narrowly lost the MVP vote to Steve Nash, and the Heat took the Pistons to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Meanwhile, Kobe, struggling with injuries, a new coach, and new teammates, had one of the worst seasons of his career, and the Lakers actually missed the playoffs.

– Because they missed the playoffs, the Lakers got the 10th overall pick, and decided to take a risk on high school big man Andrew Bynum. This would become important later. (Meanwhile, the Warriors, who picked Todd Fuller 11th the year Kobe Bryant was drafted 13th, drafted Ike Diogu one pick ahead of Bynum. The Magic took Fran Vasquez directly after Bynum. Again, this would become important later.)

– In 05-06, after the Lakers traded Caron Butler for Kwame Brown, a healthy and motivated Bryant averaged the highest PPG of his career, but the wafer-thin Lakers lost to the Suns in 7 games. Meanwhile, the Heat were able to stun the Mavericks and win the NBA title with Shaq playing a vital role, although Miami clearly would not have come close to winning it all without Dwayne Wade’s historically great finals performance.

– At the 2007-08 trade deadline, the Lakers used Kwame Brown’s expiring contract, which came from the Caron Butler trade, which came from the Shaq trade, to acquire Pau Gasol. The Lakers went to the Finals that year and lost to the Celtics, but won the next two championships with Kobe, Pau, Lamar Odom, and Andrew Bynum (when healthy) leading the way.

– Meanwhile, Shaq, after being traded to the Suns and missing the playoffs, was acquired by the Cavaliers as a “Dwight-stopper,” and ultimately ended up helping end the LeBron era because the Cavaliers’ anti-Magic frontcourt got eaten alive by Boston’s frontcourt as the Celtics beat the Cavaliers in six games. (Yes, LeBron had some bad performances in that series, particularly game 5, but the frontcourt mismatches were a HUGE reason the Celtics shredded the Cavaliers.) You have to admit, the levels of irony here are incredible.

– After the 2010 season, LeBron James announces that he is leaving Cleveland and taking his talents to South Beach. Many people notice.

***PURE SPECULATION COMING UP***

Consider this: If Wade doesn’t have a ring, do you think he would have been able to convince LeBron to leave his hometown team, which was coming off of consecutive 60+ win seasons, and become, for a time, perhaps the most hated athlete in America. (There’s a real possibility of this — LeBron wanted to play with friends/superstars, LRMR had LeBron convinced that everyone would love him no matter what, and Miami does reportedly have nice weather in the winter. Still, I think Wade’s 2006 ring really, really helped LeBron make his “decision.”

***PURE SPECULATION OVER***

– The Heat make the Finals in each of the next two seasons, losing in 6 games in 2011 and winning in 5 games in 2012. If you’re keeping score at home and believe my theory (which may be a stretch), the Shaq trade has now led to the Heat and Lakers winning two championships apiece.

– Cut to the summer of 2012. The Lakers manage to flip Lamar Odom’s trade exception for Steve Nash, and flip Andrew Bynum, the lottery pick they got because the year directly after Shaq left was the one year they were bad enough to make the lottery, gets effectively flipped for Dwight Howard. The Lakers now have a starting lineup of Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Pau Gasol, and Metta World Peace, and are instant title contenders again.

So there you have it — eight years after the Lakers and Heat made a blockbuster trade for the most dominant center of this era, they each have two championships under their belt, and at least three of those four total championships can be directly traced back to the Shaq trade. On top of that, the two teams may well be on a collision course to meet in the 2013 finals, which makes the whole sequence of events that much more incredible.

More details leak on NBA return format in Orlando, here’s a timeline breakdown

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The NBA is back.

Or will be. Soonish. Thursday the NBA owners approved a restart plan featuring 22 teams, with training camps opening in late June and games starting July 31.

What exactly will all that look like? What are the timelines, and how many games a day? Here’s a breakdown of what we know, with the latest details on format, plus some of the things we don’t yet know.

• June 15: International players who returned home called back to team market

• June 21: All players report to their team markets for workouts.

• June 22: Coronavirus testing of players and staff starts. Once teams report to the Walt Disney World facility the league wants to have daily testing. What we don’t yet know is what form of the test the league will use. While many coronavirus tests are very accurate, some studies suggest a person has to have the disease for a few days before it shows up on a test, and there are false negatives. Which is why the league wants daily testing.

• June 30: Training camps begin at team practice facilities.

• July 7: Teams travel to Orlando, continue their team training camps at the ESPN Wide World of Sports complex there. The 22 teams invited are the Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers, Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets, Orlando Magic and Washington Wizards from the Eastern Conference; and the Los Angeles Lakers, L.A. Clippers, Denver Nuggets, Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trail Blazers, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns from the Western Conference. It’s the 16 teams in playoff position when play was suspended, plus the six teams within six games of the postseason.

We do not yet know many of the health and safety protocols players will go through both on arrival at the Walt Disney World resort and facilities, save for the fact the league is doing daily testing. We do know players can golf and eat at outdoor restaurants, so long as they follow social distancing guidelines.

• July 31: NBA “seeding games” begin (the league is not calling these regular-season games). Teams will play eight games stretched over 16 days, with 5-6 games a day (played in the style of Summer League, with games starting as early as noon and extending into the evening, alternating between courts). There will be a four-hour gap on each court between games to allow time for sanitization, and then full warmups by teams.

• After the regular season, if the ninth-seeded team is within four games of the eighth-seeded team, they will have a two-game play-in matchup for the final playoff spot. The nine seed has to beat the eight seed in both games to advance (the eight seed team just needs to win one of the two).

• A full, traditional NBA playoffs follows with seven-game series in each round. Games will be played every other day (no back-to-backs in the playoffs). This will not see the long breaks often associated with the first round of the NBA playoffs (and, obviously, no need for travel days).

• October 12: The latest date for the seventh game of the NBA Finals.

• October 15: The 2020 NBA Draft takes place.

• October 18: NBA free agency opens

• November 10: Training camps open.

• December 1: The 2020-21 NBA season tips off.

Those last four dates — everything in the offseason — could be pushed back, with the NBA possibly starting as late as Christmas. Players were reportedly caught off guard by the fast turnaround. The league and players still have a lot of financial negotiations to go through after the coronavirus fallout, and the start dates likely will be part of that.

There are still a lot of health and safety questions to be answered, but Adam Silver has the owners and players on board to try and make this work.

 

NBA G League cancels remainder of season

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The NBA G League shut down play in mid-March, at the same time the NBA did after the positive coronavirus test of Rudy Gobert. However, without a big television contract or much gate revenue, there wasn’t the motivation to restart the G League season, as the NBA is doing.

Thursday the G League made the expected official, canceling the remainder of its season. It will finish without crowning a champion.

“While canceling the remainder of our season weighs heavily on us, we recognize that it is the most appropriate action to take for our league,” G League President Shareef Abdur-Rahim said in a statement. “I extend my sincere gratitude to NBA G League players and coaches for giving their all to their teams and fans this season.  And to our fans, I thank you and look forward to resuming play for the 2020-21 season.”

The Wisconsin Herd (33-10) and Salt Lake City Stars (30-12) finished the season with the best records.

The G League did take care of its players, which was the right thing to do.

With the NBA starting next season in December, the G-League will follow that schedule, with games through the winter and spring. There is a real possibility of expanded NBA rosters next season due to coronavirus fears, which will impact G League rosters as well, but there are a lot of details still to be determined.

Goodbye NBA regular season, hello NBA ‘seeding games’

Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo
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The NBA regular season is over.

The league’s statement on its plan to resume the season made that abundantly clear.

The 22 continuing teams will play exhibitions, eight “seeding games” (not regular-season games) and maybe play-in games.

NBA release:

Each returning team would play eight seeding games, as selected from its remaining regular-season matchups.  At the conclusion of the seeding games, the seven teams in each conference with the best combined records across regular-season games and seeding games would qualify for the playoffs.

The 14 NBA Lottery teams would be the eight teams that do not participate in the restart and the six teams that participate in the restart but do not qualify for the playoffs.  These teams would be seeded in the lottery and assigned odds based on their records through games of March 11.  The 16 playoff teams would draft in inverse order of their combined records across regular-season games and seeding games.

Tim Reynolds of the Associated Press:

So, the lottery odds are set for the Warriors, Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Hawks, Pistons, Knicks, Bulls and Hornets. The Wizards can’t tank their way past Charlotte and Chicago.

That’s a good setup, which raises a question: Why doesn’t the NBA freeze records for the lottery with a month left in normal seasons? By not doing so, the league creates conditions for an annual tanking wasteland.

Calling these “seeding games” also positions the league to hold award voting soon. The NBA’s major awards – Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player, Sixth Man of the Year, All-NBA, All-Defense, All-Rookie, Coach of the Year – are regular-season awards. If the regular season is over, those can be picked now. That could be a good way to fill time and attract attention before play resumes.

This is probably mostly semantics.* The term “seeding games” allows the NBA to differentiate these games for the lottery and awards.

*It could also allow the league to cancel more regular-season games and expand force majeure. But owners would still have to negotiate with players on how to pay them for these new “seeding games.” So, that’s probably a wash.

The term also makes enough sense. The 22 continuing teams are playing for seeding.

But what happens if two teams clinch certain seeds before their scheduled seeding game? Would that game still be played?

I’m confident the answer would be yes, even if “seeding game” would no longer be accurate.

“Tune-up games to generate more revenue” just isn’t as catchy.

Report: NBA sets dates for draft (Oct. 15), free agency (Oct. 18), next season (Dec. 1)

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NBA owners have decided to finish the season by holding games between July 31 and Oct. 12.

Now, the surrounding key NBA dates for training camps, free agency, NBA draft and the start of next season are filling in.

Shams Charania of The Athletic:

Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN:

The NBA’s reported tentative plan to open next season on Christmas? It was apparently pretty tentative.

A Dec. 1 start to next season would mean an incredibly short break for teams that advance deep in the playoffs. But the NBA is already spending a lot of time not playing games and making money. There’s an urgency to getting revenue flowing.

There will also be a massive disparity in time off between the eight done teams and continuing teams for the key NBA Dates. Who knows how that will affect next season? This is an unprecedented situation.

Which is a good reminder: Coronavirus can disrupt the best-laid plans.