Three guys who could be the surprise second best player in this draft

20 Comments

Make no mistake, this is the Anthony Davis draft. He is the franchise player, the guy who can be a top 10 player in the league, the guy you build a contender around, the guy people pay to see. The Hornets have literally won the lottery.

After that there is a consensus of guys going 2-5 — Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Thomas Robinson among them.

But below them are a few guys who will get picked Thursday with the potential to be the second best player out of this draft, to be a perennial All-Star, a guy who is the heart of his team, three guys who could be to their team what the Hornets hope Davis will be. These are guys that have questions, and will need a few years to develop, but if they do they could be very special players.

Or, they could flame out spectacularly. Which is why none of them are going No. 2. They are risk/reward guys. But these are the three guys with the “upside” potential to be the second best player out of this draft.

1) Andre Drummond (7’0” center, Connecticut) He could be the anchor every team wants in the middle — maybe a Serge Ibaka, maybe even better an Andrew Bynum. He has a rare mixture of size and elite athleticism, he has all the tools and from day one he should get rebounds and shot blocks galore.

Should. The problem is his drive, his motor, his passion is constantly in question. The buzz is his workouts have not impressed teams and he could slide down the board. He dropped 22 pounds after the college season ended, which makes you wonder where that effort was before, and even then he doesn’t blow people away in workouts.

UConn coach Jim Calhoun has said a few times that in three or four years we will see the potential in Drummond realized. Some guys (think Bynum with the Lakers) do put in the work and develop into great players in a few years. But he could become an Andray Blatche kind of talent, too. And if you haven’t seen the work ethic up to now…

One of the biggest risk/reward picks in the draft. He has unbelievable physical tools and, while he needs to develop, he could be an Andrew Bynum/Serge Ibaka like center in five years. But with all that he averaged 10 points and 7.6 rebounds per game in college, there are serious questions about his desire and commitment to himself and the game. He could be a big bust. Workouts drew really mixed reviews.

2) Perry Jones III (6’11” power forward, Baylor) A guy with this much individual talent falling out of the lottery — which is what DraftExpress and every other mock has happening now — says everything you need to know about the concerns about his desire, his commitment to the game and himself. Take him in the lottery and he is the kind of pick that gets GMs fired. There’s also a question about where to play him, Baylor used him as a center but some scouts see him more as a tall three.

What everyone agrees on is this: If he could harness those talents and play to his potential he would be an absolute beast. He can score in the post or out on the perimeter, he runs the floor in transition very well, he leaps out of the building and can rebound the rock. He has the potential to be a Lamar Odom on a good night type of player — but his flake factor is bigger than Odom’s. Which should scare everyone.

3) John Henson (6’10 power forward, North Carolina) If I were going to make a bet on any of the guys on this list, it would be Henson. Why? Because the guy hustles hard every game. He is like a poor-man’s Anthony Davis because from the moment you draft him he can defend and rebound (although he needs to put on weight fast, currently he could turn sideways and you wouldn’t see him). But that is not a great description because he also just has a unique, hard to define game. Well, outside of the fact he is very long and very athletic.

His offense is raw. Also, he’s not a guy that fits easily into a traditional offensive system — he’s too thin right now to bang with fours and fives in the NBA (see the paragraph above) but he’s not a three. However, he is the one guy you know will put in the effort, work on his offensive game, get stronger and in three or four years could be a real force.

Most people don’t think he has the upside of Perry and Drummond, but this is the guy I would be more willing to invest in because some return seems more likely.

Report: Bucks trying to trade Tony Snell or Ersan Ilyasova with draft-pick sweetener

AP Photo/Kathy Willens
Leave a comment

Coming off their best season in decades, the Bucks will send four quality players into free agency – Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Malcolm Brogdon and Nikola Mirotic.

How will Milwaukee keep its core intact?

Maybe by unloading Tony Snell ($11,592,857 salary next season, $12,378,571 player option the following season) or Ersan Ilyasova ($7 million salary next season, $7 million unguaranteed the following season).

Marc Stein of The New York Times:

With Bird Rights for Middleton, Brogdon and Mirotic, Milwaukee faces no salary-cap restrictions on keeping just those three. The only cost is real dollars, including potential luxury-tax payments.

It’s trickier with Lopez. Giving him the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (which projects to be about $9 million) – the most they can pay without opening cap space – would hard-cap the Bucks at a projected team salary of about $138 million. That could be a difficult line to stay under.

Unless Snell or Ilyasova are off the books.

Neither player has a desirable contract, which is why Milwaukee is shopping them with a draft pick attached. But both can still contribute. Ilyasova is a smart veteran power forward who shoots well from outside and takes a lot of charges. Snell is also a good outside shooter, and though his all-around game is lacking, there’s a dearth of helpful wings around the league.

The Bucks have the No. 30 pick in Thursday’s draft. They could select on behalf of another team then trade the draft rights. The Stepien rule applies only to future drafts.

Beyond that pick, Milwaukee is short on tradable draft picks. The Bucks have already traded two protected future first-round picks and their next three second-rounders. Dealing another first-rounder would require complex protections. Perhaps, a distant second-rounder is enough.

It’s important for Milwaukee to figure this out. Giannis Antetokounmpo likes this core group, and everyone is watching his level of satisfaction with the Bucks as his super-max decision approaches.

Toronto police: Report of shooting at Raptors championship parade

Cole Burston/Getty Images
Leave a comment

Update: Toronto police:

 

 

The Raptors’ championship parade was interrupted by a scary situation.

Toronto Police:

Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Star:

Especially in large crowds like this, chaos and confusion can spread quickly. Hopefully, everyone is OK.

The scene was quite strange, as speeches were interrupted while people in sections of the crowd fled:

The Raptors are continuing their speeches now.

Report: Nets not extending qualifying offer to Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images
Leave a comment

The Nets appear to be on the verge of signing Kyrie Irving. They opened double-max cap space to pursue a second star like Kevin Durant, Tobias Harris or Jimmy Butler.

Brooklyn isn’t going to let Rondae Hollis-Jefferson foil that plan.

The Nets could make Hollis-Jefferson a restricted free agent, giving them the right to match any offer he receives. But do so, they must extend a $3,594,369 qualifying offer. That’s essentially a one-year contract offer he could accept at any time. If he did, he’d count against the cap at $3,594,369. Brooklyn doesn’t want to risk that.

Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN:

The Nets could still re-sign Hollis-Jefferson. This just prevents him from unilaterally accepting the qualifying offer and jamming up cap space.

But this signals Brooklyn is ready to move on. Hollis-Jefferson, who become an unrestricted free agent after spending his first four years with the Nets, might also be ready.

The 24-year-old Hollis-Jefferson has settled in as an undersized power forward. He’s a switchable defender and active offensively. Playing power forward somewhat covers for his lack of shooting and ball-handling ability, but that can still be exploited.

Why timing of Anthony Davis trade matters so much for Lakers

AP Photo/Jae C. Hong
3 Comments

The Lakers will get Anthony Davis.

That’s clearly the only thing that matters to them.

Not only will they send the Pelicans a massive haul of draft picks and young players, the Lakers could lose significant cap space with the trade’s structure.

Los Angeles and New Orleans can’t complete the reported deal until the league year turns over June 30. Then, the NBA immediately goes into a moratorium in which most transactions aren’t allowed. The moratorium ends July 6. That’s when two main options emerge.

Option 1: Trade July 6

Let’s start with Davis’ trade kicker, a bonus paid to him if traded. Davis’ base salary next season is $27,093,018. His 15% trade bonus could raise his salary $4,063,953 to $31,156,971. Davis could waive all or a portion of the bonus. The Pelicans would pay the bonus, but the Lakers can also include enough cash in the trade to cover the full bonus amount.

The Lakers will send Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram and Josh Hart (combined salary: $17,918,965) and the No. 4 pick (which will count about $7 million against the cap) to New Orleans.

Davis’ salary will be between $27,093,018 and $31,156,971 next season, depending on his trade kicker.

Simply, the Lakers’ incoming salary in the trade will be about $2 million-$6 million higher than their outgoing salary in the trade.

That works just fine under the cap rules. The Lakers will have way more than $2 million-$6 million in cap space. As far as salary matching, teams can always trade when they end up under the cap.

So, after this deal, the Lakers would have about $24 million-$28 million in cap space.

But there’s another path that would give the Lakers even more flexibility.

Option 2: Trade July 30

On July 6, if they renounce all their free agents and waive Jemerrio Jones‘ unguaranteed salary, the Lakers project to have about $33 million cap space.

That’s about enough for a max salary for a free agent with fewer than 10 years experience – someone like Kemba Walker, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard or Kyrie Irving. Or multiple helpful role players.

The Lakers could spend all that money then trade for Davis.

Here’s how they could get Davis after reaching the cap line:

They’d sign the No. 4 pick June 30. (Signing first-round picks is one of the few moves allowed during the moratorium.) He couldn’t be traded for 30 days after being signed. Hence, the July 30 date on this trade. But his actual salary would count toward the trade. Unsigned draft picks count $0 in trades.

In this salary range, the Lakers could acquire 125% of the outgoing salary in the trade plus $100,000. Aggregating Ball, Ingram, Hart and the signed No. 4 pick would allow the Lakers to acquire about $31 million of salary. That covers Davis’ full salary and most, if not all, of his trade bonus.

But why would the Pelicans wait?

That’d mean the No. 4 pick can’t play for them in summer league. There’d also be complications flipping the No. 4 pick to another team.

It’d also tie up a portion their cap space until the trade is completed, as they’re the ones holding the more-expensive Davis through July. Most good free agents will be off the market by July 30.

New Orleans could always reach an unofficial agreement with a free agent then make the deal official after the Lakers trade. But that requires trust, and some free agents might not go for that.

There’s no upside in waiting for the Pelicans. The only question is how much downside.

What’s at stake?

A quick recap:

If the Lakers trade for Davis sooner, they’d project to have $24 million-$28 million in cap space (depending on his trade bonus).

If the Lakers trade for Davis later, they’d project to have about $33 million in cap space.

That extra $5 million-$9 million could go a long way.

What now?

It doesn’t sound as if the Lakers pressed New Orleans to wait until July 30 before accepting the trade.

Adrian Wojnarowski of ESPN:

Tania Ganguli of the Los Angeles Times:

For now, the plan is to execute the trade on July 6, right after the moratorium ends on the start of free agency — and it’s unlikely that will change.

The Lakers could always negotiate with free agents June 30-July 5 then decide. If they want the additional cap space, the Lakers could try to entice the Pelicans with extra draft picks to delay. But that’d make the trade even more costly to Los Angeles.

The alternative might be even more grim – the Lakers not finding worthy players in the first week of free agency. Los Angeles could even view that as a face-saving move to justify the timing of this trade.

But if the Lakers make this trade July 6 then claim they didn’t have good use for an extra $5 million-$9 million in cap space, they’ll only be telling on themselves.