Can Heat duplicate blueprint of Game 4? Don’t bet on it.

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Game 4 was what Heat fans expected this team to look like — LeBron James and Dwyane Wade were each an unstoppable force and played well off each other, the Heat played suffocating defense, and a role player (Mario Chalmers in the first half, Udonis Haslem in the second) stepped up.

But can they duplicate that at home for Game 5?

Don’t bet on it.

Miami may still win, but it’s going to be a different game. With the series tied 2-2, expect both teams to play with a sense of desperation. And since the teams have developed a real playoff distaste for each other, expect some physical play.

Tempo will be a key thing to watch — Miami wants to get back to more of their up-tempo offense. In part because Wade and LeBron are beasts in the open court, in part because they need to get buckets before Roy Hibbert sets up shop down low and changes everything. Miami talked about getting back to their space and pace offense, and even some of that would be welcome by coach Erik Spoelstra.

Something you can expect is the tough defense from both teams — these are two sides that try to get their offense out of defense and both have slapped on the clamps for stretches of this series. With everything on the line (and shooters a little tighter) look for a tight defensive game. If one side can get some easy buckets in transition it will be a huge boost (something that favors the Heat).

If the Pacers are going to win on the road they need to keep Hibbert out of foul trouble — when he sat in the third quarter of Game 4 the Heat went on their run to take control of the game. Look for the Heat to go at him and try to draw fouls, Hibbert has to avoid those and not pick up any stupid ones. Indy needs him on the court.

The Pacers also could use less chest bumping of opponents from Danny Granger and more efficient shooting from their leading scorer, who is hitting just 35 percent of his shots this series (granted, against some very good defenders).

We know the Heat are going to get a big game out of LeBron James (although to expect his ridiculous 40 point, 18 board, 9 assist game again may be asking too much). He just does that. The bigger issue is Dwyane Wade and his balky knee — he came up with a huge 30 points in Game 4 and with Chris Bosh still out they are going to need him to step up.

The Heat also need someone else to step up. In Game 4 Chalmers and Haslem played well for stretches, in Game 5 it has to be someone — Shane Battier, Mike Miller, anyone. Dexter Pittman even… okay, that’s not happening.

Game 5 is not going to look like Game 4. That was the outlier in this series. But if the outcome is the same, Miami will not care how they got there.

Rumor: Paul George’s agent telling people client will re-sign with Thunder

AP Photo/David Zalubowski
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That rumor Paul George will leave the Thunder?

How about the exact opposite?

Dean Blevins of News 9:

Allegedly, apparently, Paul George plans to stay with the Thunder. I know. It’s not what people believe. But in separate conversations, I’m told P.G.’s agent has told people associated with the NBA that P.G. believes the injury loss of Andre Roberson was huge and he’s staying. Disclaimer, though: Believing everything that agents allegedly say can be dangerous to your health.

This, by Blevins’ own admission, isn’t the staunchest reporting. Nonetheless, I appreciate him sharing and contextualizing it. We can evaluate it for what it’s worth.

George is known to share his plans – though the previous example was him planning to sign with the Lakers. And he might have really believed it at the time, when he was still with the Pacers.

But throughout the season, George seemingly went out of his way to profess his affection for Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and the Thunder. That only raised expectations in Oklahoma City of George staying, and if he leaves after doing that, he’d be inviting even more backlash. I think he’s smart enough to understand that, which is why I thought he made those especially strong pro-Thunder comments only after deciding he’d likely stay.

On the other hand, even if my assessment was correct, conditions change. The Jazz brutally exposed Oklahoma City’s flaws, and if George re-signs and Anthony opts in, the Thunder will have minimal cap flexibility to upgrade the roster. In fact, they might take a step back with the supporting cast to keep the luxury-tax bill manageable. George could see free agency as his chance to escape that mess.

Roberson was a huge loss, and if George is focused on that, that would bode well for Oklahoma City. Though Roberson was just a role player, he was pivotal to the Thunder’s defense. And his teammates had learned how to play around his offensive shortcomings. Oklahoma City didn’t have any good replacements for him on the roster. Roberson getting healthy is the clearest way for the Thunder to improve next season.

Of course, that’s predicated on George returning, too. Will he?

One last note of caution: People often believe what they want to hear. It’s easy to see someone in Oklahoma City hearing George bemoan the loss of Roberson and elevate that to George planning to re-sign, even George wasn’t going that far.

Draymond Green guarantees Warriors will beat Rockets in Western Conference finals

AP Photo/David J. Phillip
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Warriors coach Steve Kerr is confident despite his team trailing the Rockets 3-2 in the Western Conference finals.

Golden State forward Draymond Green goes further.

Green, via Marcus Thompson II of The Athletic:

“We still winning this,” Draymond Green said. “Book it.”

Of course, Green is confident. He’d never say he expects his team to lose.

But he didn’t need to frame it this way. He could’ve said he was just focused on the next game rather than make such a bold proclamation.

He’s taking pressure upon himself and putting his reputation on the line. If Golden State loses, especially in Game 6 at home with Chris Paul out, Green will be widely mocked.

If he and the Warriors pull through, he’ll probably deserve praise for setting a tone that helped them advance.

Danny Green: Kawhi Leonard told me he wants to stay with Spurs

AP Photo/Eric Gay
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The Spurs are reportedly worried Kawhi Leonard‘s camp wants to get him to the Lakers, Clippers, Knicks or 76ers.

Leonard hasn’t said much himself – except apparently to San Antonio teammate Danny Green

Get Up on ESPN:

Green:

I talk to him here and there, check up on him, see how he’s doing.

I think he wants to be in San Antonio. He’s let me know that. He’s let me know verbally he wanted to be there. So, we’ll see what happens.

Green has tried playing peacemaker throughout this saga – going as far as denying tension that clearly exists. He’s not the most reliable source.

And even if Leonard explicitly told Green he wants to remain in San Antonio, I’m not sure Leonard is confrontational enough to tell Green he wanted out, even if he did.

Those caveats acknowledged, this could be a huge revelation.

If Leonard wants to stay with the Spurs, the next step is meeting with them, mending their relationship and convincing them he deserves a super-max extension (which projects to be worth $219 million over five years). No matter how Leonard feels about San Antonio right now, if the Spurs don’t trust investing so much in him, that could lead to a fractured relationship and his exit.

So, there’s still a lot to sort out. But Green saying this means something.

LeBron James flips elimination-game game on its head

AP Photo/Charles Krupa
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His Cavaliers down 3-2 to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals, how does LeBron James assess his situation?

"I don’t enjoy being in the position where it’s you lose and go home," LeBron said before Game 6 tonight in Cleveland.

He might not enjoy this position, but he’s pretty good in it.

Since he first reached the playoffs in 2006, other teams have won 26% of their elimination games. LeBron’s teams have won 57% of theirs.

Of course, LeBron hasn’t gone 12-9 in elimination games just because he’s lucky. He has willed his team off the mat numerous times.

LeBron has scored 40 points and/or had a triple-double in six straight elimination games, winning five of them. His line in his last elimination game before that streak? Just 32 points, 18 rebounds and nine assists.

A full history of LeBron’s elimination games:

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