Magic may want to land Ellis, but trade complicated, unlikely

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It looks more and more like the Orlando Magic are going to go with the Jerry West philosophy and call Dwight Howard’s bluff — go ahead and leave us and that guaranteed $30 million on the table. (Which is not really $30 million, really, but we’ll get to that.)

What’s more, they are trying to convince him to stay by bringing in help to the nice but not contender status Magic roster. Maybe in the form of Monta Ellis. But that trade is very complicated and hard to pull off.

The Magic likely would be very willing to do it — anything to show Howard how serious they are — but for the Warriors it is hard to make this trade work. Ken Berger of CBSSports.com explains.

The Warriors are discussing ways to acquire center Andrew Bogut from Milwaukee as part of a complicated, three-team proposal that would send Monta Ellis to Orlando, multiple league sources told CBSSports.com.

The Warriors would get Bogut from the Bucks and send Ellis to Orlando as part of the Magic’s efforts to persuade Dwight Howard that they are prepared to continue surrounding him with top-flight talent. The Magic are exploring multiple scenarios to upgrade their roster in the hopes that Howard would then relent on his strategy to opt out of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent on July 1.

I get why Magic GM Otis Smith would want to do a deal like this — he is desperate to show Dwight Howard that they can build a contender around him. Of course, the real problem is he’s other desperation moves to show the same thing — trading for Gilbert Arenas after the gun incidents and knee surgeries when he had the worst contract in the NBA, or letting Brandon Bass go so he could make a run at Glen Davis — have not panned out well at all. Which is part of the reason the Magic are a second tier team in the East and Howard is looking to get out.

But why would the Warriors do this? They certainly need to make changes to the roster, but is Bogut coming off another major injury and the cast-offs from Orlando really much of an upgrade? The targets in the West for the next few years are Oklahoma City and the improving Clippers — those will be the teams to beat in the next five years, barring any major changes. Not sure how this would move the Warriors much closer to that goal.

Plus there is this about the Warriors from the Contra Costa Times.

Team sources, once again, refute reports that Golden State is considering trading guard Monta Ellis to Orlando for anything other than Dwight Howard.

It’s all a long shot. But the Magic are in the long shot game right now as they try to keep Howard. So they keep pushing for deals that would send Bogut or Chris Kaman to Golden State.

They can say their deal offers $30 million more — which would not be true because while they can guarantee that fifth year Howard likely would play it somewhere for a large salary, it just would be smaller due to smaller raises. At his age, with his earnings from endorsements, the wins may matter more than that money. To sum up, Berger:

The most difficult aspect of Bogut going to Golden State in the three-team scenario that would send Ellis to Orlando is Howard’s apparent reluctance to commit one way or the other by Thursday’s 3 p.m. ET deadline. Even if Howard decided he wanted to stay in Orlando, it’s likely that he would opt out of his $19.5 million contract for next season anyway and test free agency, when he could get a five-year deal from Orlando as opposed to a four-year deal with one of his top two choices, the Nets or Mavericks.