What has to happen Monday for an NBA labor deal? A lot.

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Monday in Manhattan, NBA league officials and union leaders will again sit down across the table from each other in a posh hotel and try to hash out a deal — or at least go through the motions of it. If they don’t reach a handshake agreement today the league will cancel the first couple weeks of the NBA regular season.

So, what do the two sides have to do today to reach a deal?

A lot. Like a “make the Miami Dolphins a good football team” size effort. A “clean up corruption in the Mexico police force” kind of effort.

It’s a long shot, but here is what has to happen for the NBA to start.

1. Find a split on basketball related income. This is the elephant in the room and while the two sides met for five hours Sunday apparently this didn’t even come up. Which is ludicrous. The two sides can talk about the salary cap structure and luxury tax levels (apparently topics at the meeting Sunday) but all of that really ties back to BRI. Until the two sides define the pie and how to split the pie up, nothing else matters. Nothing.

When last we left this talk, the owners demanded a 50/50 split. The players got 57 percent of BRI in the last deal and have come down to 53 percent. That’s about $120 million apart on the first year of the deal and close to a billion over the life of the labor contract. Know that 53 percent is where the players are drawing their line in the sand, saying they have not gotten less than 53 percent in nearly three decades.

“We moved down from 57 to 53 (percent) and I think the owners got to work with us….” Kevin Durant said after the Drew/Goodman rematch Sunday night. “We’re going to stand firm no matter what. If we miss games we miss games. We might have to sacrifice a few for the betterment of the league, but I don’t think we’re going to give in just because we missed a few games.”

The NBA owners have already won these negotiations — that give back by the players represents $160 million a season and more than $1 billion over the course of a six-year labor deal — but the owners are now trying to pour it on and win by 50. They are pushing for a bigger cut of the pie and some are willing to miss a lot of games to get it.

2. Figure out revenue sharing by the owners. While this is technically an owners-only issue, it has tentacles into the negotiations. For example, the luxury tax big-spending teams pay is one part of the revenue sharing, so how much that is will impact the other revenue sharing. Zach Lowe has a fantastic post talking about this issue over at Sports Illustrated — revenue sharing and the luxury tax are an stumbling block right now.

This is not just the small market owners trying to get as much money as they can (although they are), this is also big market owners wanting more from the BRI split so the money they pay out in revenue sharing is new money and does not impact their profits.

3. Reach at least some level of understanding on the myriad of other issues in the CBA, such as if there is a mid-level exception, reworking the draft and the age limits on players entering the league. That stuff should fall into line once the money is figured out, but it still has to be in a place they can work it out.

That’s it for today. They can announce a handshake deal and have a joint press conference. Smiles everyone, smiles. Then they have to…

4. Turn the lawyers loose for a couple weeks to flesh out the details that will surround the framework of the deal. This would happen as the lockout ended — teams would open their facilities to players for workouts — but there could be no free agency period and training camps can’t formally open until the deal is finalized and approved.

5. Sell this deal to the owners and players. The hardliners on both sides will think they have given up too much and both David Stern and Billy Hunter will have to sell their constituencies on how this is a good deal. Most people on both sides want to get back to basketball, but there is going to have to be some salesmanship.

So that’s it. Five easy steps to basketball again.

Rumor: Tom Thibodeau would rather leave Timberwolves than trade Jimmy Butler for young players, picks

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Timberwolves president-coach Tom Thibodeau reportedly doesn’t want to grant Jimmy Butler‘s trade request, which mostly sounds like Thibodeau trying to preserve leverage.

But maybe Thibodeau would actually put his money where he is mouth is.

Sean Deveney of Sporting News:

According to multiple league sources, coach Tom Thibodeau has no intention of letting Butler go for young, rebuilding-type pieces.

Thibodeau has zero interest in taking a step back with Minnesota, even, according to sources, if it means he ultimately parts ways with the team.

“No one expects Tom to coach a 25-win or even 35-win team,” one front-office executive told Sporting News. “Even if he has to agree to dissolve the contract, they’d do that before they go and trade Butler for draft picks.”

It’s unclear how much of this is hearsay. Thibodeau has a reputation for being unrelentingly competitive, and maybe people around the league are just supposing how that applies to his situation in Minnesota.

Remember, Thibodeau went 31-51 his first season with the Timberwolves – by far his worst record as a head coach. He didn’t quit.

He did trade for Butler after that season, though. And that fast-tracked Minnesota to 47 wins and a playoff berth. It would be disheartening to step back after last season’s breakthrough.

But trading Butler wouldn’t mean losing him for nothing. Thibodeau could get helpful veterans in return. They probably wouldn’t match Butler’s contributions. The Timberwolves are operating from a position of weakness considering Butler’s trade request. But trading Butler wouldn’t necessarily mean just subtracting him from this season’s team.

Besides, Minnesota already has franchise-player Karl-Anthony Towns and other solid vets. It’s too late for a full teardown. Minnesota should compete next season no matter how this Butler situation unfolds.

If Timberwolves owner Glen Taylor somehow feels he must force Thibodeau into trading Butler for unready young players and picks, that would signal Taylor has lost faith in Thibodeau running the team. At that point, it might be Taylor – not Thibodeau – ending the relationship.

So, I doubt Thibodeau ever must choose between the scenarios laid out here. But if he faces that choice, I’ll believe he leaves that much money on the table when I see it.

Markelle Fultz reveals new jumper (video)

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Described by his trainer, Drew Hanlen, as having the yips, Markelle Fultz essentially stopped shooting jumpers last season. Hanlen has posted offseason workout videos of Fultz without showing the 76ers guard’s jumper.

How does the former No. 1 pick’s shot look now?

We can finally see.

The Players Tribune:

Fultz:

There was a lot of things going about changing shots and all this and the third. But, for me, I’m a hooper. So I was like, man, this ain’t going to stop me.

People really didn’t understand. They thought, “He was just being soft. But it was really an injury. And now I got a chance to just sit down and pick apart all these doctors. We figured it out, and I’ve been back to work this summer. And everything’s back to even better than what it was.

Hanlen said Fultz will be All-Star next season if 100%. It’s hard to see that from this video.

Fultz’s shot looks way smoother than the glimpses we saw last year, but questions remain:

Is his release point too low and his mechanics too slow to get the shot off during NBA games? How he is he shooting off the dribble? Will he shoot confidently in real games?

This is clearly progress, but it’s only a small step toward Fultz getting back on the track of a No. 1 pick.

Can Mike Budenholzer lift Milwaukee to top of East?

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This is the latest of NBC’s NBA season preview stories, and we will post at least one a day on these pages until Oct. 16, when the NBA season kicks off. We will look at teams and topics around the NBA throughout the series, with today the Bucks and their new coach in the spotlight.

Jason Kidd was enshrined in the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame just more than a week ago, and with that came the flood of memories (and videos) of what a legendary player he was at his peak, leading the New Jersey Nets to the Finals in the early 2000s.

Unfortunately for the Milwaukee Bucks, coach Jason Kidd’s offensive and defensive philosophies seemed stuck in that same era. The Bucks’ corner offense was run at a slow pace and lacked much strong-to-weak ball movement or shooting that would have created space for stars to operate. Kidd’s defense was ultra aggressive to the point teams turned that against the Bucks with a couple of passes, which led to quality shots. In spite of that Milwaukee kept winning because of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, and the talent on the roster, but talk to other teams around the league and they did not fear the Bucks. What they feared was the day the Bucks started using that talent in a modern way.

Enter Mike Budenholzer.

The former right-hand man to Gregg Popovich who went on to coach the Hawks to a 60-win season was brought in as an Xs and Os guru who would simplify the defense, then put Antetokounmpo and other Milwaukee players in a faster offense that worked to get their stars better looks.

How much can a coach and a system lift a team? Milwaukee is going to find out, and they are betting it’s a lot.

The Bucks don’t want to waste seasons of a top-10 player, a potential MVP such as Antetokounmpo (plus they are moving into a new arena in the heart of the city, this is win-now time in Milwaukee). Budenholzer has never had a talent like this on his roster as a head coach, and one of the first things he did was have a breakfast with the Greek Freak and talk about how together they would get him to take the next step.

“There’s a lot of reasons to be excited about coming to Milwaukee, but there’s no doubt that Giannis is one of them,” Budenholzer said at his introductory press conference this summer. “He’s so important to our success, I think he embraces his leadership role and how he needs to grow, improve and get better along with all the rest of us. So the excitement is through the roof, and how we can use and implement him defensively and offensively, it started some at breakfast and it will continue into the weight room today, tomorrow and the next day.

“And those are conversations I look forward to having with Giannis, and listening to Giannis too. I think he’s a smart player at 23, and he has an IQ and an understanding of the game. Together, I think he and I will push each other, but I look forward to pushing him. He believes it and I believe it, but he’s going to get a lot better as we watch him over the years.”

“A lot better” Antetokounmpo should scare the rest of the league.

Budenholzer’s offensive philosophy and motion offense fit better with the Bucks’ talent. He wants to run and get the ball out in transition, then use pace, misdirection, and side-to-side ball movement to create space for their stars to work in the half court. Then there’s the floor spacing, the Bucks were 25th in the league in percentage of shots from three, but a new philosophy and adding Brook Lopez and Ersan Ilyasova this offseason should help change that. The Bucks are going to shoot threes and that should open up lanes for Antetokounmpo and Bledsoe to get to the rim. This should look like a different Bucks team.

However, the bigger changes and improvements need come on the other side of the ball. Despite the dated style under Kidd, the Bucks still had an offensive rating in the top half of the league. The defensive side, however, was the Bucks’ biggest weakness.

“The thing that probably stands out to me first is the potential on the defensive side of the ball,” Budenholzer said. “I would say that’s been always something that’s prioritized. We want to be great on both sides of the ball, and whether it be the last five years in Atlanta as a head coach or San Antonio at the end of the day has always been great defensively.”

Budenholzer has talked about simplifying the system and reads on defense, something that should be welcomed in the Bucks’ locker room. The team has good defenders on it, just put them in better positions and understanding the system should improve the Bucks on that end of the court.

Can Budenholzer make the Bucks a threat to Boston this season? Unlikely. But if everything comes together in a new system, how good can this Bucks’ team be, if Antetokounmpo looks like an MVP candidate again and the defense is improved. Philadelphia and Toronto may want to look over their shoulder and keep an eye on the Bucks.

This team might finally start living up to its potential.

Karl-Anthony Towns denies Jimmy Butler rift due to Butler sleeping with Towns’ girlfriend

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Karl-Anthony Towns reportedly won’t sign his contract extension until the Timberwolves handle the Jimmy Butler situation, which escalated with Butler’s trade request.

What’s the problem between the teammates?

Robert Littal of BSO:

Towns:

OK then.