One stat sums up why we are one more Mavericks win away from seeing David Stern hand the Larry O’Brien trophy over to Mark Cuban:
In the final six minutes of Games 2 through 5, Dallas has outscored Miami 60-26.
These have been incredibly close games, but with everything on the line Dallas and its veteran lineup have executed better. The Mavericks have gotten the shots they wanted and hit the shots they’ve gotten. Dallas — with a ferocious Tyson Chandler in the paint — has reduced Miami to a jump-shooting team.
Thing is, late in games, Chicago reduced Miami to a jump shooting team, too. Remember the Game 5 comeback against the Bulls by the Heat? What shots do you remember? LeBron James and Dwyane Wade draining 3-pointer after 3-pointer.
But that is not their forte, they are two of the best penetrators the game has seen and when both are settling for jumpers they can be beat. Not always, just ask the Bulls, but the odds improve because when they get inside they are nearly unstoppable.
It is possible that Game 6 in Miami on Sunday night will see one team break out for a comfortable win, but based on the last five games it’s hard to expect. And even if a team — especially Miami — does get hot and pull out to a double-digit lead, you know the other team will come roaring back at some point.
Dallas has come back because it is hitting its shots late — you expect that from Dirk Nowitzki, but in Game 5 Jason Terry and J.J. Barea and seemingly anyone else in a Mavericks uniform could not seem to miss. Terry has LeBron in his face and drains the dagger three. They run a beautiful staggered screen set that Miami has yet to figure out how to defend. They mix in a little zone, just enough to keep the Heat off balance. You know, when the pressure is on, Dallas is going to make plays at the end of the game.
Can Miami? That ends up being the only question that matters coming into Game 6. Will LeBron come off the high-pick and bull his way to the basket rather than see the double team and become passive, looking for the pass but not imposing his will on the game? Will Wade take over at the end of the game and make it his own? Will one of them work to get open off the ball rather than stand around in the corner like a jump shooter. Or, if they do settle for jumpers, will the shots fall like they did against Boston and Chicago?
Dallas wants no part of a Game 7. They could well win it, but Game 7s are unpredictable — the Lakers’ Ron Artest was the best player on the court in last year’s Game 7. Anything can happen. Dallas needs to close it out now to make sure they win the title.
Which means they need to close out the final six minutes like they have the last four games. If they continue to play like that, well, it will be fun to see the look on Stern’s face when he has to hand Cuban the most cherished prize in the NBA.